Can't LEGO keep up with demand?

[koalayummies]

On 12/3/2020 at 3:32 AM, Mylenium said:

Still, you have to question the dumbness of not producing sufficient quantities of e.g. the Crocodile locomotive in the first place when the dumbest of morons could see that here in Europe with the LEGO train segment literally starving and people willing to pay almost any price would buy it en masse.

Mylenium

If they're literally starving then a plastic construction toy wouldn't help.

[Aanchir]

On 12/3/2020 at 6:32 AM, Mylenium said:

Still, you have to question the dumbness of not producing sufficient quantities of e.g. the Crocodile locomotive in the first place when the dumbest of morons could see that here in Europe with the LEGO train segment literally starving and people willing to pay almost any price would buy it en masse.

Given that the sales of the previous Creator Expert trains were apparently somewhat underwhelming, I think it makes sense that LEGO might've been reluctant to let their expectations for that set get too high. After all, there were two new LEGO trains last year (the Disney Train and the Hidden Side Ghost Train Express) and three the year before (the Hogwarts Express and the City Passenger and Cargo Trains). That's considerably more than there had been in the years leading up to the release of the Horizon Express, so clearly a "starving" fanbase wasn't any sort of guarantee that an AFOL-targeted train set like this would fly off the shelves.

[Mylenium]

13 hours ago, Aanchir said:

so clearly a "starving" fanbase wasn't any sort of guarantee that an AFOL-targeted train set like this would fly off the shelves.

I (not so humbly) disagree. Trains are regularly the talk of the day on many German forums and LEGO no doubt is made aware of it by our Ambassadors. Rinse repeat for Switzerland, Austria, Italy or even Denmark, quite likely many other European countries. It's a considerable market and it seems to me LEGO are fools for under-serving it while competing, alternate vendors of brick-based train stuff make a good buck on it. This hasn't even anything to do with the failures of other Creator (Expert) sets or anything of that sort. You know, it's that same old discussion we have about knights, vikings and what have you. Somehow LEGO have a weird logic about these things, yet the market (as in "such stuff sells out rapidly") appears to tell a different story than what the powers to be cook up in their Billund offices...

Mylenium

[zoth33]

14 hours ago, Mylenium said:

I (not so humbly) disagree. Trains are regularly the talk of the day on many German forums and LEGO no doubt is made aware of it by our Ambassadors. Rinse repeat for Switzerland, Austria, Italy or even Denmark, quite likely many other European countries. It's a considerable market and it seems to me LEGO are fools for under-serving it while competing, alternate vendors of brick-based train stuff make a good buck on it. This hasn't even anything to do with the failures of other Creator (Expert) sets or anything of that sort. You know, it's that same old discussion we have about knights, vikings and what have you. Somehow LEGO have a weird logic about these things, yet the market (as in "such stuff sells out rapidly") appears to tell a different story than what the powers to be cook up in their Billund offices...

Mylenium

I think your looking at this from a narrow perspective.  Your only looking at it from one side and saying that all these people love trains.  That doesn't mean everyone is dying to buy train sets.  There may be certain restrictions they have to follow for production be it either from their own corporate practices that have been adopted because of Covid or from the Denmark government itself (I don't know i don't live in denmark).  Also they may be having trouble getting supplies for their production runs like plastic, lubrication, boxes, etc.  Supply chains all over are slow for just about everything.  Many businesses are even failing or shutting down so for Lego to still be open is pretty good.  There are so many factors that could be slowing this down especially now.  Saying Lego is stupid won't change that and I don't think they are that dumb being the number 1 toy company in the world.  I think they are doing fine considering the current situation.  Things are all messed up all around the world, given time things will straighten out but it will take time

[Mylenium]

8 hours ago, zoth33 said:

I think your looking at this from a narrow perspective.  Your only looking at it from one side and saying that all these people love trains.  That doesn't mean everyone is dying to buy train sets.

Dunno, the counter-argument to that would have to be that currently a local German distributor called Bluebrixx who assembles custom kits from Chinese bricks as making major inroads into that scene. They're probably rubbing their hands about how much money they make. So for what it's worth, from a global perspective LEGO of course have other fish to fry, but is it really that smart to ignore a pretty strong regional user base to which you could potentially sell hundreds of thousands of sets each year? And it's not that this would go out of fashion soon, despite the model train craze being nowhere near what it was 20 years ago. That is to say there is a predictable, continuous demand, no matter what and I think it is not a smart move for LEGO to not more pro-actively serve that segment.

8 hours ago, zoth33 said:

Also they may be having trouble getting supplies for their production runs like plastic, lubrication, boxes, etc.  Supply chains all over are slow for just about everything.

Fair enough, but overall I don't think there's a reason to make it that complicated. Yes, there are restrictions in many places, but it's not that the trucks aren't rolling and factories aren't running. You know, just like LEGO bricks, actual plastic is produced almost fully automated. You don't need a ton of people in a chemical plant these days. I have one right where I live and it looks rather empty most of the time, yet the trains keep rolling in and out. I'm sure this analogy could be applied to other raw materials and consumables needed to produce a LEGO set as well. There's nothing mysterious or magical about it, even if things may just take that bit longer currently or require to make a few more phone calls to coordinate timing and reducing physical contacts.

Mylenium

[daiichigo]

I spent the last couple of days trying to get not-large amount of VIP and literally every set, of every kind, is sold out on the American Lego site. There are no Lego Friends sets. There are no Technic sets. The big set I want for myself is out. The small set I want for a kid is out. Nothing is in stock. 

It clearly is not intentional that a company is entirely out of stock at a time that Americans are buying gifts for kids for Christmas. If Lego Friends or Lego City or Technic is not available, parents will find non-Lego alternatives. Driving away customers at peak demand isn't a thought-out plan. 

I've downsized what I want/hope for from this company this season. Hopefully, it will be easier for them to meet much lowered expectations.

[AFOLguy1970]

8 hours ago, daiichigo said:

I spent the last couple of days trying to get not-large amount of VIP and literally every set, of every kind, is sold out on the American Lego site. There are no Lego Friends sets. There are no Technic sets. The big set I want for myself is out. The small set I want for a kid is out. Nothing is in stock. 

It clearly is not intentional that a company is entirely out of stock at a time that Americans are buying gifts for kids for Christmas. If Lego Friends or Lego City or Technic is not available, parents will find non-Lego alternatives. Driving away customers at peak demand isn't a thought-out plan. 

I've downsized what I want/hope for from this company this season. Hopefully, it will be easier for them to meet much lowered expectations.

I feel your pain--there are definitely some sets I would like to purchase, but they are not available.  Star Wars Cantina is the biggest one.  With that said, I am sure the production of sets was planned long ago.  Lego released a LOT of new sets this year, and many of them are in the premium Creator Expert category or in a popular theme such as Star Wars or Harry Potter.  Had they known COVID was going to hit hard, I do not think they would have released so many new sets.  The obvious problem is that you have a sudden disruption of supply with a sudden increase in demand.  More people are buying Lego, because it is something you can do at home, even in quarantine.  There is not much Lego can do with the limited resources they have available, which is why they are not even offering backorder on a lot of these sets.  

With that said, there is one thing Lego could have some control over which would help tremendously.  They need to allow pre order.  You basically purchase a place in line, and when it is your turn, they ship the set to you.  That way you know you are eventually getting it and Lego gets paid.  Win-Win.  Instead, it is a competition against everyone else to try and snag a set before it runs out.  Pre order also shows Lego where the demand is.  They can prioritize those sets and everyone is happy.  It looks like New Years Eve online and New Years Day in the stores could get interesting.  I might have enough to get the new modular, but we all know there are only so many of them available.  If I cant get one online, then I had better plan on being at the Lego Store early the next day.  I have a feeling once the new sets are out of stock, it could be a while just like all these other popular sets that are out.  

[Chmashdehjare]

10 minutes ago, AFOLguy1970 said:

With that said, there is one thing Lego could have some control over which would help tremendously.  They need to allow pre order.  You basically purchase a place in line, and when it is your turn, they ship the set to you.   

I like this idea a lot. This whole disruption thing will eventually go away (we hope) but doing something like this is the sort of adaptation to current reality that healthy businesses make. My wish list on shop.lego.com is 90% unavailable and the other 10% is stuff I only sorta want. 

[Mylenium]

6 hours ago, AFOLguy1970 said:

With that said, there is one thing Lego could have some control over which would help tremendously.

Agree. However, in order to do that they'd have to be much more open about their release dates and tell people in advance. Pre-ordering still would be useless if they reveal a set to day and it goes on sale next week, which is kind of their current model even with basic sets. You basically never find out what will be on shelves in January until a few days before Christmas and even on that level it feels weird...

Mylenium

[Megbricks]

On 12/2/2020 at 6:46 PM, KRS-3284 said:

Is it possible that this is just an unprecedented time in human history and it is affecting LEGO the way it is affecting all other industries, given that this worldwide pandemic has created ripple effects across the world economy? I mean, frankly, I'm surprised that LEGO has been able to continue releasing new products to begin with. LEGO has been smart to diversify and have production facilities all over the world, which has helped them keep up with demand to a certain extent. But it doesn't surprise me at all that we are seeing issues with demand. 

I think we should just be patient. In retrospect, a lacklustre Black Friday sale is a "first world problem". I too was excited for this year's Black Friday, given that last year's deals were phenomenal (at least here in Canada). But, a certain level of humility, gratitude, and patience are needed here. I highly doubt any these issues represent a lack of effort or organization on LEGO's part to deal with issues with demand.

We should remind ourselves that the pandemic has created unforeseen problems that nine months ago no one in their right mind would have expected. Also, it seems that with more people having to stay home and looking for something to do with their time, interest has gone up tremendously in products like LEGO. So I would think that plays into this as well. 

Exactly what I think.

On 12/3/2020 at 12:26 AM, Vindicare said:

Yes, yes, & yes. 

As to your last point, it’ll be interesting to see the reports of this year & their sales. 

Yes can’t wait. I was thinking about that too! Imagine if they still had stock...

as others have said tho, I don’t understand why they don’t allow backOrder ordering. If they put a 60-90 days date... I would have bought more stuff. Maybe they don’t want to create false hopes of getting stuff in time for Xmas 

[MAB]

36 minutes ago, Megbricks said:

as others have said tho, I don’t understand why they don’t allow backOrder ordering. If they put a 60-90 days date... I would have bought more stuff. Maybe they don’t want to create false hopes of getting stuff in time for Xmas 

It creates problems when done in combination with promotions. Either they have to store the correct number of promotional sets for later use, or send out the promotional set separately to the order which doubles the deliveries (and then the buyer can just cancel the main order too). Also it creates problems if paying with paypal. The pending payments they use only last one month, if they go over that then they cannot charge properly on dispatch. The original payment fails and they have to ask the customer to pay again.

[Mylenium]

4 hours ago, MAB said:

It creates problems when done in combination with promotions. Either they have to store the correct number of promotional sets for later use, or send out the promotional set separately to the order which doubles the deliveries

Thanks for rubbing salt in the wound! *lol* Seriously, that's another area where LEGO come across as pretty clueless at times. Perhaps that's the reason the qualifiers for GWPs have become so sky-high recently? Less people reaching the threshold disguises the shortages. Mmh... ;-)

Mylenium

[MAB]

Most big new sets that were not purchasable or available on back order over the BF/CM weekend are now available for back order in the UK. So Sesame Street, '89 Batwing, The Child, Colosseum, and so on. The Cantina is still not available, even on back order. The Colosseum is on back order until Jan 22! That is over six weeks away and they know they will be getting stock of it that far enough in advance to take people's orders now. Yet most of the others are due in mid December yet they didn't know about the stocks of those over BF/CM and make them available on back order during the promotion.

[ShaydDeGrai]

With all the problems in the world today, I realize this is pretty petty by comparison but I was just over at the US lego shop website hoping to pick enough stuff to get the december promotional set (for better or ill, with my buying habits 150USD usually isn't a hard bar to reach) but I cracked open my wish list (which Lego claims has 176 items, I didn't count 'em myself) and EVERY SINGLE ITEM was either sold out, out of stock or coming soon.  Sure I could backorder a lot of that stuff, but honestly, it made me wish their website had a "Shop by -> Availability" option just to give me a quick, comprehensive view of what they _were_ still shipping.  At least Amazon warns me: "only 3 left, order soon", etc.

I haven't set foot in an actual Lego Store since the pandemic hit, but it makes me wonder if they have any inventory there or are the retail shelves as bare as their warehouses appear to be?

I _did_ visit a local, independent toy store the other day and their Lego section was full, but variety was limited; it was mostly multiple copies of early 2020 sets and a few 2019 leftovers.  Presumably, with the store closed for six months, everything's just been sitting there and no new stock has come in.

[Vindicare]

On 12/8/2020 at 7:27 AM, ShaydDeGrai said:

I haven't set foot in an actual Lego Store since the pandemic hit, but it makes me wonder if they have any inventory there or are the retail shelves as bare as their warehouses appear to be?

I _did_ visit a local, independent toy store the other day and their Lego section was full, but variety was limited; it was mostly multiple copies of early 2020 sets and a few 2019 leftovers.  Presumably, with the store closed for six months, everything's just been sitting there and no new stock has come in.

It is pretty depressing on S@H right now...it’s definitely a huge bummer. 

Generally speaking, they’re well stocked. I last visited mid Nov & they had plenty. Granted I didn’t notice if they had some of the sought after SW sets(Cantina, Razor Crest, & 501st) but did have The Child. They did have all the HS sets, which have all disappeared in both Target & Walmart around me. 

[ks6349]

Last year they had the real deal - $111 US dollars for 10243 Parisian Restaurant. It is the real and best deal ever but I wasn't able to catch the deal

[Grover]

On 12/8/2020 at 8:27 AM, ShaydDeGrai said:

With all the problems in the world today, I realize this is pretty petty by comparison but I was just over at the US lego shop website hoping to pick enough stuff to get the december promotional set (for better or ill, with my buying habits 150USD usually isn't a hard bar to reach) but I cracked open my wish list (which Lego claims has 176 items, I didn't count 'em myself) and EVERY SINGLE ITEM was either sold out, out of stock or coming soon. 

I had the same problem and was upset until I realized that Pick a Brick counted toward the limit for the GWP.  I went over there and busted $150 with two elements I needed in bulk for my MOCs.

[Megbricks]

7 hours ago, Grover said:

I had the same problem and was upset until I realized that Pick a Brick counted toward the limit for the GWP.  I went over there and busted $150 with two elements I needed in bulk for my MOCs.

I almost did that in store with the pick a brick wall cups this week but then i saw The Vestas wind turbine on sale and available...the physical store had quite a lot of items. Almost all the big sets were available. But online... Ishk 

[KRS-3284]

I don't mean to revive this thread, but I had an interesting experience at the Lego store today which I think is relevant to this discussion. I live in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, and we happen to have two Lego stores in the city, one which just opened this year actually. I went to one of the stores on Monday and I was surprised to find it well stocked with several sets which are sold out online and have been for months now (501st battle pack, Mos Eisley Cantina, Haunted Mansion, Modular buildings, Ideas Piano, Barracuda Bay). I immediately grabbed a few sets since this was literally the first time I have been able to find them (this was also my first time visiting the store since July). I spoke to one of the employees and he told me that apparently, Lego determines the quantities of sets that will go to brand stores months ahead of time (he said up to a year in advance), and allocates those quantities for shipment to specific stores. 

Today, I went to the other store in the city, and they were also fully stocked with all the same sets. So, it's an interesting insight into Lego's stock strategies. My take is that the low stock online is reflective of people shopping online due to the pandemic instead of shopping in person. Both malls had very low traffic, hardly anyone shopping. 

[Mylenium]

4 hours ago, KRS-3284 said:

Lego determines the quantities of sets that will go to brand stores months ahead of time (he said up to a year in advance), and allocates those quantities for shipment to specific stores.

Yeah, sure, but that only reaffirms how inflexible they are, simply because they are such control freaks and want to handle every aspect of the distribution pipeline...

Mylenium

[BrickObsessed]

I'm thinking Lego already has a real-time inventory system, yes? Therefore, they should be able to tell which items are out of stock on the spot and create or move products to fill the gaps. They are in the business of selling so you would think they'd move heaven and earth to sell products. Anything out of stock is a missed sale and opportunity to make more money lost. They are also enabling knock-offs to proliferate to fill the gaps.

[mostlytechnic]

22 minutes ago, BrickObsessed said:

I'm thinking Lego already has a real-time inventory system, yes? Therefore, they should be able to tell which items are out of stock on the spot and create or move products to fill the gaps. They are in the business of selling so you would think they'd move heaven and earth to sell products. Anything out of stock is a missed sale and opportunity to make more money lost. They are also enabling knock-offs to proliferate to fill the gaps.

There are hard limits to how much anyone can do that. I'm in a very different manufacturing industry, but I can tell you that we have literally millions of dollars of product sitting in our warehouse, ready to ship around the world, and we simply cannot get trucks and shipping containers to haul it. The products are literally on skids just waiting for the truck. 

We use thousands of plastic bottles and metal cans for some of our products - we cannot get them. We're ordering ANY bottle the correct size that we can get, no matter what color or shape, just to try and fill orders. When Texas had the freeze last month, that screwed up some of the solvents we buy. We have contracts for buying tank trucks of solvent monthly, but they're not able to fill them because the refineries in Texas were shut down. That means we don't get solvent, which means our customers don't get the product they ordered, and that means their customers won't get THEIR orders. It's a ripple that takes months to travel down the supply chain. 

The entire global supply chain is massively disrupted for MANY reasons and will be for a year to come. Believe me, Lego and any other company ARE moving heaven and earth to sell products. 

[dr_spock]

At one point, we were selling hand sanitizers in hard liquor bottles.  Hopefully, nobody mistakes it for vodka or rum, etc.   

There is should and then there is the hard reality.

[MAB]

1 hour ago, BrickObsessed said:

I'm thinking Lego already has a real-time inventory system, yes? Therefore, they should be able to tell which items are out of stock on the spot and create or move products to fill the gaps. They are in the business of selling so you would think they'd move heaven and earth to sell products. Anything out of stock is a missed sale and opportunity to make more money lost. They are also enabling knock-offs to proliferate to fill the gaps.

I'm not sure how good it is. Often during promotions they run out of stock completely and do not allow you to backorder product. Yet a day later, stock appears. So either they don't have a good real time inventory knowing when items are in transit or, more cynically, they purposely don't allow popular sets to be backordered during promotions to stop so many promotions being ordered.

 

[Yeetforlego]

I actually think that's kind of a good thing. They are getting tons of good business.