What sets do you think are a good investment right now?

[Lasivian]

Just curious. The idea came from a friend wanting the Disney Castle set and I was not sure if it would be discontinued anytime soon. Thanks!

[xboxtravis7992]

First the Disney Castle should be on shelves for another three years at least... 

Asking about sets for investing is a rather controversial subject in the Lego fan community right now to be honest. The fact some old sets are now going for triple their original cost on eBay or Bricklink shows that demand is high, product availability is low, and some people are happy to scalp their sets for a very ludicrous price. Still; even investing in a large D2C set could honestly earn you an increase of value of about $50 or more without jacking the price as a scalper. 

However some sets never go up in value, and some even lose value. A quick visit to Bricklink will reveal most $10-$50 sets that aren't connected to a pop culture license, are still at or below their original cost. 

[dr_spock]

Large modulars, D2C sets, etc.  As with any instruments of investment, past performance do not guarantee future results.

 

[kibosh]

16 hours ago, Lasivian said:

Just curious. The idea came from a friend wanting the Disney Castle set and I was not sure if it would be discontinued anytime soon. Thanks!

So do they want the set, but need to save up money for it, and wonder how long they have to save?

Or are they wondering if they bought it now, how long would they have to wait for it to retire and start appreciating in value?

[Cobb]

Lego is pumping out bigger and better looking sets every year. Adding 1000's of characters every few years. The old superhero sets like Spider-Man and Batman used to go for crazy prices but this will soon be over with Lego bringing back those figures that were rare in newer and mostly better figure designs (Alfred for example). Even the modulars will go down eventually because it's just impossible to have a complete collection.

My guess would be the latest 80's inspired minifigs from the game, I don't think they will make a comeback soon after the license has expired. Though they might be 'over produced' and that will not make them go up like the before mentioned Alfred figure or a SDCC figure.

Edited October 25, 2016 by Cobb

[Lasivian]

12 hours ago, kibosh said:

So do they want the set, but need to save up money for it, and wonder how long they have to save?

Or are they wondering if they bought it now, how long would they have to wait for it to retire and start appreciating in value?

The saving money part. But it got me thinking about the appreciation in value side.

[kibosh]

8 hours ago, Lasivian said:

The saving money part. But it got me thinking about the appreciation in value side.

If they just need time to save money, I think they have at lest 2 years to get this.  You have to figure there was a lot of cost sunk in the development.  They won't retire the set until they at least recoup that investment.

No set will appreciate before it retires.  The sets that tend to appreciate the most are things like the first sets in a new theme (Cafe Corner), sets based on popular licenses like Star Wars, sets that contain a rare minifig, or almost any train.

[Lasivian]

4 hours ago, kibosh said:

If they just need time to save money, I think they have at lest 2 years to get this.  You have to figure there was a lot of cost sunk in the development.  They won't retire the set until they at least recoup that investment.

No set will appreciate before it retires.  The sets that tend to appreciate the most are things like the first sets in a new theme (Cafe Corner), sets based on popular licenses like Star Wars, sets that contain a rare minifig, or almost any train.

Thanks. I keep wishing I had gotten one of the Collectors Edition of R2-D2. I wonder if they recouped the investment on those collector sets.

[kibosh]

I missed out on that one, too, sadly.

[Svendp]

In my opinion Lego should be build, not put on a shelf to gather dust and value increase :)

anyway, that said: I think the Yellow Submarine will not be in the stores for long, and with a huge Beatles fanbase, I think that set will also double in value really quick. 

[zux]

4 hours ago, Svendp said:

In my opinion Lego should be build, not put on a shelf to gather dust and value increase :)

Then there are people looking for MISB sets they've missed during their dark age and have money to pay for them. Now if everyone build all the sets they buy nobody could provide such service anymore. So supply and demand situation.

[Fuppylodders]

Not exactly sure why people are giving this thread the time of day...
No one really likes scalpers except those that do it as it is against the intention of Lego, and hurts real fans wallets, and the original poster would have taken more time to create an account, opening this  thread and typing the question than a simple google search to find out when it got released which would have given an indication that the set will not be retiring any time soon. Instead he just wants people too tell him how to make easy money riding the Lego gravy train...

[Svendp]

17 hours ago, zux said:

Then there are people looking for MISB sets they've missed during their dark age and have money to pay for them. Now if everyone build all the sets they buy nobody could provide such service anymore. So supply and demand situation.

Hey Zux, I can understand where you are coming from. I also missed out some awesome sets during my 'dark ages', which I might buy now when I bump into them. For myself however, they don't need to MISB, as I would build them straight away anyway :) 

[AFOLguy1970]

On 10/24/2016 at 5:51 PM, Lasivian said:

Just curious. The idea came from a friend wanting the Disney Castle set and I was not sure if it would be discontinued anytime soon. Thanks!

There is a whole website devoted to using Lego as an investment.  It is called Brickpicker.  There, you will find numerous conversations about investing in sets.  

Personally, when I "invest" in Lego, the question is "What set(s) would I regret no purchasing when they eventually become discontinued?"  Obviously, I cannot buy everything that is on the want list, so prioritizing is necessary.  And I do not buy them so that they can remain unboxed on a shelf collecting dust either.  Lego is something meant to be enjoyed in both the building and displaying of it (even playing for some ).  Therefore, if you are buying something just for the sake of selling, check out Brickpicker.  If you are investing for your own enjoyment,  then you are in good company.  

 

[AmperZand]

I don't buy LEGO with a view to reselling it in future, but do look at prices out of curiosity.

In addition to AFOLguy1970's excellent suggestion of paying Brickpicker a visit, you may want to pick up a copy (hard or PDF) of Blocks magazine. In it, there's a Review Chart with scores out of 100 for about 150 current sets (pages 66 & 67 of Issue 25 for example). Any set that:

1. scores at least 80

and is either

2a. from a perennial or recurring theme such as Pirates

or

2b. from an enduring popular culture franchise such as Star Wars or Marvel Super Heroes

or

2c. includes a unique or rare minifig, bigfig or moulded monster

is a pretty good bet.

Examples include 76057 Spider-Man Web Warriors Ultimate Bridge Battle, 76058 Spider-Man Ghost Rider Team-Up, 75112 General Grievous, 70413 The Brick Bounty, 31052 Vacation Getaways, 75827 Firehouse Headquarters, 21304 Doctor Who and 71016 Kwik-E Mart.

 

Edited October 28, 2016 by AmperZand
Typo

[Phil B]

18 hours ago, AFOLguy1970 said:

There is a whole website devoted to using Lego as an investment.  It is called Brickpicker.  There, you will find numerous conversations about investing in sets.  

Personally, when I "invest" in Lego, the question is "What set(s) would I regret no purchasing when they eventually become discontinued?"  Obviously, I cannot buy everything that is on the want list, so prioritizing is necessary.  And I do not buy them so that they can remain unboxed on a shelf collecting dust either.  Lego is something meant to be enjoyed in both the building and displaying of it (even playing for some ).  Therefore, if you are buying something just for the sake of selling, check out Brickpicker.  If you are investing for your own enjoyment,  then you are in good company.  

 

Excellent suggestion - just want to correct the notion that people at Brickpicker are only investing in sets: you will find a large group of people there who only buy to build, or who buy to build and to invest. Lots of conversation around MOCs and MOC examples, and a very active "What LEGO set did you build today?" thread. Plus, a great source for finding deals - BP typically has LEGO deals faster than sites like SlickDeals or HDUK.

[Capparezza]

There has been one advice, pointed out somewhere here on EB, which is Rule No. 1 to me:

--- NEVER buy a set you don't like just for the sake of selling it later on.

Whoever it was to give that advice, Kudos to you! Because if that set you buy drops in price instead of a rise, you have some crap set sitting on your shelf you don't like and nobody else wants... If you like it, you can at least keep it and have fun with it.

Edited October 31, 2016 by Capparezza

[22kane]

I guess everyone has their reasons for collecting Lego. Some for building, some for profit? The profit end is a tough one because there is no telling what the "value" will be on any set in the distant future. It comes down to what the enthusiast is willing to pay. eBay has really destroyed part of the hobby. Brand new sets still in large circulation are posted 2 to 3 times their value and people are paying it. Currently the new Beatles set sells at an average $120 on eBay and it can be obtained at many retailers for its MSRP $59.99. 

I collect more than I should. Some I open others I do not. Some I can't bring myself to open which many would say is a waste but I enjoy the collecting part of it. All Lego trains I open and set up at Christmas time every year. Had I not opened them I would have a pretty nice payday but to me the trains are too cool to sell off. 

In the end there is no way of telling what something may be worth later down the line. It's a gamble like any "hobby" that you try and profit from. I've found that any sets I sell I use the money to just buy other sets I want more so it balances out in a way. Trying to make a profit every time most likely won't work out. 

[Big G]

I've heard a rumor that there's a special place in Hell reserved just for scalpers

[Robianco]

6 hours ago, Big G said:

I've heard a rumor that there's a special place in Hell reserved just for scalpers

There is. For every £1 over the original price you charged someone for an item you have to spend one year walking over the corners of upturned Lego bricks in bare feet. After that it's just an eternity of flames and pointy sticks wielded by goblins.

[Vorkosigan]

I hope those of you who hate "scalpers" so much have never bought a retired set from a third party. Buying to resell is only "scalping" if someone buys large quantities near or before release with the hope to sell to people who can't get the set because it is sold out. Some of this goes on but with the internet its harder for this to be abused unless something is really underproduced. But buying a set after it has been out for a while and is well stocked is not harming anyone and provides a valuable service.  If the price is too high don't buy it. 

[Robianco]

53 minutes ago, Vorkosigan said:

I hope those of you who hate "scalpers" so much have never bought a retired set from a third party. Buying to resell is only "scalping" if someone buys large quantities near or before release with the hope to sell to people who can't get the set because it is sold out. Some of this goes on but with the internet its harder for this to be abused unless something is really underproduced. But buying a set after it has been out for a while and is well stocked is not harming anyone and provides a valuable service.  If the price is too high don't buy it. 

There have been cases in places such as Australia where an entire trolley of Lego has been bought before it hit the shelf and nobody got to buy it. It just went into scalpers hands. Scalpers because they buy up the stock of items and create that vacuum. If someone makes money off a 10188 Death Star then fair play to them. It was on the shelves for eight years and there was plenty of time to buy it. Some other sets aren't that well circulated.

[Japanbuilder]

This seems really hard to determine to me. In Japan information is not always transparent regarding the longevity of sets. So it is hard to tell which sets have been flying off the shelves collectively (and thus not making them as rare relative to other sets) and which ones haven't. 

When sets are due to retire seems to be guesswork too. Some are up for years some are gone in a year. How to determine this also seems difficult at times for some themes. 

But I would imagine given the popularity of LEGO most sets if they appreciate will do so slowly as they may not be as rare as people think. I notice prices only tend to go up once a fairly large set is ready for retirement. 

So as with most investments at least where I am, it is fully 100% buyer beware. Go with the recommendations that seem the most reasonable but be aware that some sets will be slow to rack up value. 

[Crazy Packers Fan]

On a related topic, there are a few sets I want (to build, not to resell). I'm wondering whether they will be discontinued soon or not, and I was wondering if anyone could give me their best guess. Just wondering if I should buy them now or later. Those sets are:

• Fairground Mixer
• Ferris Wheel
• Architecture Studio
• Lincoln Memorial
• Louvre

Any educated guesses would help. Thanks!

[sebitsena]

I'm building the Ferris Wheel. It's big, very big, quite repetitive, but i think it will be a great set to display ;)

The Fairground Mixer should be retired before the Ferris Wheel. Don't know for the a others.