Lucarex Posted January 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, Wesley D said: I continue looking forward to a castle or a small medieval village in the future! Better settle in for a long wait... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Lego David Posted January 2, 2021 1 hour ago, Lucarex said: Better settle in for a long wait... I fear that because of the final set being so different from the original submission, this set is not going to sell very well, and then LEGO would blame that on the "lack of interest in LEGO Castle" instead of the questionable choices they made with the set. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
LettuceBrick Posted January 2, 2021 Just now, Lego David said: this set is not going to sell very well, I guess the question is how much sales depend on people who supported the idea liking the set. I have zero clue about Lego sales volume for individual sets and I guess having 10,000 people say they would be open to an idea being a set could give you a ballpark figure about the viability of such a set, but it seems like a shaky metric. According to some perfunctory googling, 600,000 Lego sets are sold per day (whether this is accurate or not, who knows). Brickset lists roughly 800 sets released per year since 2015. Putting aside questions about what defines a set and so on, and assuming that sets are available for about three years, and adding a generous margin to make the math easier, we could say that in any given year about 3,000 sets are available. Assuming that each set sells the same amount, which is obviously incorrect, we get 200 sales per set per day. That comes out to 73,000 sales per year. If it's a horrible set, or there's a cultural shift, or all the other sets are better, or rats ate the wires in the trucks that delivered this particular set and so it was unavailable, perhaps we could say that only ten percent of the 'average' sales are made. We're still at 7,300 sales per year. I would assume that most people who buy Lego are either unaware, uninterested, or un-something when it comes to the exact submission that produced a Lego Ideas branded set. If this is correct, then most people who end up buying an Ideas set are completely disconnected from what the submission was, and therefore discussions about how faithful the set was to the submission are entirely irrelevant to their buying process. Also, even if half of the people who voted for the submission hate the set, that's still 5,000 people who like it. If the worst performing sets can expect to sell about 20,000 copies overall without hype, I'm not convinced that it's a few thousand supporters that are going to make the difference. So yes, it might sell badly, but I'm not convinced that its the design changes that will be the cause. Obviously, all of this rests on the shaky foundation of several wild guesses, but it seems to me that, as interesting as the debate about submission vs set is, it's not particularly relevant to Lego's decision-making process. I could of course be wrong, and having 10,000 supporters who all think that the final product is great might correlate well to sales, but without access to the data, it's hard to know. People and situations change, especially during the time lag between idea approval and set release. A whole lot of people have a whole lot less disposable income right now than they did when the blacksmith was approved for mangling/improvement. The question is whether Lego views the 10,000 supporters as an ad-hoc focus group that allows them to gauge profitability or whether they see it as part AFOL-frustration-safety-valve / part zeitgeist-capturing-money-printing-machine. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MAB Posted January 2, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, Lego David said: I fear that because of the final set being so different from the original submission, this set is not going to sell very well, and then LEGO would blame that on the "lack of interest in LEGO Castle" instead of the questionable choices they made with the set. I think it will sell very well, although not necessarily at the price it is. It really depends what comes with it in terms of animals and figures. Of course we'll never know how well it sells but it wouldn't surprise me if it goes out of stock early on after release. 3 hours ago, Wesley D said: I still consider the building too big and was rather hoping for a small medieval 'village' of 2 houses and scenery, filled with references to classic castle. I think that would have been a step too far. Ending up with two very small builds (half the size of this one), at least one of which has nothing to do with the original submission, would not be faithful to the original idea. Edited January 2, 2021 by MAB Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wesley D Posted January 2, 2021 59 minutes ago, MAB said: I think that would have been a step too far. Ending up with two very small builds (half the size of this one), at least one of which has nothing to do with the original submission, would not be faithful to the original idea. I know that wasn't a realistic expectation. I wouldn't dare to imagine the indignation among the supporters of the original submission on Ideas, remembering the hassle when Pirates of Barracuda Bay was revealed. On the other hand: the desire for castle sets is extremely high, we would almost support and buy anything LEGO releases that comes close to a proper castle set. The picture of the blacksmith doesn't really affect me. Perhaps more official images will change my mind, but either way: at the pace LEGO releases D2C sets, I guess sooner or later we will get fine sets that will be more appealing to me. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JintaiZ Posted January 2, 2021 (edited) Official pictures of 40448: Edited January 2, 2021 by JintaiZ Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tomorrowboy Posted January 2, 2021 7 hours ago, Lucarex said: The final interior dive shop for example was also excellently recreated and retains a lot of kid play value (so I’m not sure I agree with your general IDEAS target age comments) and the feel of a modular series set. It’s a hard act to follow. The Sesame Street Ideas set is sold as an "18+" set by Lego. The Ideas sets are not being marketed to children. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Lyichir Posted January 2, 2021 18 minutes ago, tomorrowboy said: The Sesame Street Ideas set is sold as an "18+" set by Lego. The Ideas sets are not being marketed to children. I don't think that that can be extrapolated into an overarching "rule" with a sample size of only one Ideas set with the 18+ branding so far. It's entirely possible that some Ideas sets may end up getting different treatment depending on their size, complexity, and subject matter. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JintaiZ Posted January 2, 2021 (edited) Here's all the ideas projects compared to the original ones. (from brickset) Edited January 2, 2021 by JintaiZ Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JintaiZ Posted January 2, 2021 1 hour ago, tomorrowboy said: The Sesame Street Ideas set is sold as an "18+" set by Lego. The Ideas sets are not being marketed to children. And yet... the final product looks like a playset intended for children rather than a display set for adults. I'm assuming TLG simply wanted to appeal to adults but children will still get it if they are interested... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
astral brick Posted January 2, 2021 1 hour ago, JintaiZ said: Here's all the ideas projects compared to the original ones. (from brickset) Great post, but you forgot the T-Rex (and others) :-) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
astral brick Posted January 2, 2021 7 hours ago, LettuceBrick said: I would assume that most people who buy Lego are either unaware, uninterested, or un-something when it comes to the exact submission that produced a Lego Ideas branded set. If this is correct, then most people who end up buying an Ideas set are completely disconnected from what the submission was, and therefore discussions about how faithful the set was to the submission are entirely irrelevant to their buying process. I think you are correct. 7 hours ago, LettuceBrick said: but it seems to me that, as interesting as the debate about submission vs set is, it's not particularly relevant to Lego's decision-making process. Correct again. 7 hours ago, LettuceBrick said: The question is whether Lego views the 10,000 supporters as an ad-hoc focus group that allows them to gauge profitability or whether they see it as part AFOL-frustration-safety-valve / part zeitgeist-capturing-money-printing-machine. What an amazing definition of Ideas you just gave. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Modal Posted January 2, 2021 Man seeing all the sets, Lego Ideas is the coolest theme to come out of Lego in the past decade or so. The Tree House single handedly got me back into Lego. It's also a bit funny how little changed between the Old Fishing Store original to retail. It was a well made set from the start. I honestly don't think the Medieval Blacksmith original is at that par, personally. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
astral brick Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/1/2021 at 4:27 PM, dtomsen said: The Blacksmith looks nice enough but it has gone from sublime model to a simplified play set ? The white bricks and the green plates are eyesores. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JintaiZ Posted January 2, 2021 (edited) 18 hours ago, astral brick said: Great post, but you forgot the T-Rex (and others) :-) 75936 Jurassic Park: T. rex Rampage vs. Ideas project: 10271 Fiat 500 vs Ideas project: 10277 Crocodile Locomotive vs. Ideas project: 10281 Bonsai Tree vs. Ideas project (This one is very different): 76897 1985 Audi Sport Quattro S1 vs. Ideas project: 75187 BB-8 vs. Ideas project: 10276 Colosseum vs. Ideas project: Edited January 3, 2021 by JintaiZ Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
astral brick Posted January 2, 2021 20 hours ago, Totoro said: It's gone from looking actually medieval, to looking like a fake Disneyland version. I am in agreement with you, in fact I think that they have completely misdirected the set. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Grover Posted January 2, 2021 1 hour ago, JintaiZ said: Here's all the ideas projects compared to the original ones. (from brickset) Thanks! What a great collection! It seems to me that most of the sets are pretty close to the original. A few (the mickey boat) seem to be better. Barracuda bay and the blacksmith shop seem to be the most changed (edit: The Bonsai changed quite a bit too). Sesame Street changed quite a bit but they also have a lot of source material to work with. Overall, I'm usually happy to see the final product. I'll be interested to see that with the blacksmith shop too. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JintaiZ Posted January 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, astral brick said: The white bricks and the green plates are eyesores. I actually think the green plates gives it the medieval feeling... If you don't like it, you could easily replace it. Just now, Grover said: (edit: The Bonsai changed quite a bit too) Actually... the Bonsai wasn't based on the project. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Aanchir Posted January 2, 2021 1 hour ago, JintaiZ said: And yet... the final product looks like a playset intended for children rather than a display set for adults. I'm assuming TLG simply wanted to appeal to adults but children will still get it if they are interested... What parts of it look like a playset for children? It doesn't really have a lot of obvious play features or exciting functions, and it'd be impossible to accurately recreate Sesame Street without including bright colors. The biggest cosmetic difference between the original proposal and the final product (besides the addition of Hooper's store) was the open-backed design, and that has nothing to do with whether or not a set is "for kids" — after all, even the Stranger Things set has an open-backed "dollhouse style" design, and I don't think anybody would say that looks like "a playset intended for children". Most of the time that's just the most sensible way of creating interiors from TV and movies, since it lets people flip the set around to see the scene from the same sort of angle it would have been filmed from. And even from a display perspective, a lot of LEGO builders are either going to display the set like that on a shelf or against a wall (in which case a back wall would be an expensive waste of bricks that would hardly ever be seen) or by itself in a more central location like a coffee table (in which case a back wall would actually reduce the display value by covering up the detailed and exciting interior with a much plainer, less varied, and flatter back surface). The only builders who'd really benefit from paying extra to get a back wall are those AFOLs who are dedicated enough to have a larger layout/"tabletown" to incorporate those sets into. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Grover Posted January 2, 2021 Just now, JintaiZ said: Actually... the Bonsai wasn't based on the project. That would explain a lot! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
koalayummies Posted January 2, 2021 @JintaiZ that is a most amazing and useful comparison compilation! I thought about doing that but you did it way better than I would have been able. Really demonstrates that they haven't changed all much from the original submissions. In fact the collaboration process between the original designer and those at Lego clearly refines and polishes the designs. Truly a fantastic post. The last two pages of this thread has demonstrated that there might be a slight misunderstanding of what the word "idea" means or at least of the terms of the program that every designer agrees to when submitting to the program. When voting for an Ideas submission one is voicing their support for the concept of a design, the spirit, perhaps the theme as a whole rather than an exact replica of the submission, because as per the terms of agreement at the end of the day Ideas has the final say in any produced design. If one wants an exact reproduction of a fan design there are plenty sharing and selling their instructions. When a submission goes through Lego's own program however one reasonably has to expect a careful analysis of all considerations and some adjustment, all of which the person submitting has already agreed. That said every single one of these has been improved after going through careful examination and expert refinement by the designers at Lego and the collaboration with the original builder and seeing them side-by-side like this with the original submission and final product shows that the spirit and essence of each design is still absolutely preserved. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Lyichir Posted January 2, 2021 29 minutes ago, Grover said: That would explain a lot! None of those non-Ideas sets were. Conspiracy theorists just like to pretend that Lego "stole" them from Ideas. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Modal Posted January 2, 2021 I personally really like the Blacksmith set still. It has a bit of a World of Warcraft-fantasy vibe that I really dig. There are a ton of castle submissions coming to Ideas now, maybe more than any other type of set. I’m hoping we get more sets like this in the future! I would die for Fantasy modulars Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jimmynick Posted January 2, 2021 2 hours ago, koalayummies said: @JintaiZ that is a most amazing and useful comparison compilation! I agree; very conveniently displayed to see what has changed and what hasn't. It's pretty obvious that the main vibe of each set actually hasn't changed all that much (do think you missed the original Ecto-1 though ). As far as the blacksmith goes, yes it's changed but the "vibe" is still very much the same. I actually rather like the bonsai set, even though it's not in the Ideas line. Not sure if I'd buy it though Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MAB Posted January 2, 2021 2 hours ago, koalayummies said: @JintaiZ that is a most amazing and useful comparison compilation! I thought about doing that but you did it way better than I would have been able. Really demonstrates that they haven't changed all much from the original submissions. In fact the collaboration process between the original designer and those at Lego clearly refines and polishes the designs. Truly a fantastic post. 4 minutes ago, jimmynick said: I agree; very conveniently displayed to see what has changed and what hasn't. It's pretty obvious that the main vibe of each set actually hasn't changed all that much (do think you missed the original Ecto-1 though ). As far as the blacksmith goes, yes it's changed but the "vibe" is still very much the same. I actually rather like the bonsai set, even though it's not in the Ideas line. Not sure if I'd buy it though Take a look at the original article where they are copied from ... The Ecto-1 is included there. https://brickset.com/article/57087/lego-ideas-original-projects-vs-final-sets Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
