LEGO LotR - general discussion

[Deathleech]

You did just say that the Sandcrawler wasn't that important, and then went on to say that it "says a lot" that Lotr's most iconic set is selling a few less copies than it. The Sandcrawler being newer does help your case, but not by much, as the Sandcrawler has been out for 1.5 years while Orthanc has been out for two. I would say that it is still fair to compare the sales between the two, especially since, in your own words, the Sandcrawler is a minor vehicle in the Star Wars movies while Orthanc is a major location in Lotr.

I do agree with most of post, but I just wanted to point out an inconsistency in there.

Actually what I said was the Sandcrawler isn't as iconic in the Star Wars universe as Minas Tirith is in the LotR one, BUT it does come from a more popular theme as a whole. I would say that makes them fairly even and sales seem to support that when comparing the Sandcrawler to Orthanc. Keep in mind that's Orthanc too, not Minas Tirith. I would say MT is more popular, but that is up for debate. If Lego can do a Sandcrawler why not a Minas Tirith?

Also the Sandcrawler came out on May 2014 so it's 13 months old, not a year and a half like you claim. Orthanc came out July 2013 which is 22 or 23 months old. That's nearly a years difference yet they are only about 40 sets sold per month apart? Seems comparable. If anything I would give Orthanc the lead there. If it were Minas Tirith instead it might have even more sales at this point.

Edited May 30, 2015 by Deathleech

[Faefrost]

Online sales of Orthanc have been roughly 240 sets per month recently from the European hub (excluding US and anywhere served by the US hub). If a run has 10K sets, and if 5K of them are destined for the US, then that is still about two years to sell those 5K sets. That is very different to an ideas set. Of course there might be a much faster rate at the start, we don't have available stock data for Orthanc at the start of its run.

To compare with the other D2C range, The Simpsons, the house is selling at about 440 a month, with the Kwik-E-Mark at 1500 or so per month at the start of it's run. It will be interesting to see how sales of that continue over the months. So maybe D2C sets would work for the larger ones that people seem to vote for on ideas, but ideas is not the way for them to be produced. Lego would have to decide whether it is financially viable to have a D2C LOTR line only, whether the cost of the molds would need to be offset by having additional tie-in money making product (like the CMF series for the Simpsons), whether the existing license is available in future (that is whether the license for the video game plus toy Dimensions line would also cover the building set only too, or whether there are additional costs there - none of us know what the license covers), and of course, whether they believe if the line (for LOTR building toys) has been done and finished. They may well believe they did the waves they did and that is the end. I don't know how many people bought into lego LOTR, but I do know it has been a few years and LOTR sets and especially minifigures are now hard to get. I cannot see them attracting new customers with only a single D2C set or line, if they do not reissue at least the Fellowship. I don't believe lego cares too much about past customers, it is future customers they want to please. A Minas Tirith is only really of interest to peolpe that already have the minifigs to go with it, unless they repeat a lot of them in the set meaning that they probably don't give us what we want (new characters as well as the location).

As to LOTR vs "more minor vehicles" like sandcrawler, it is interesting to note that online sales of the sandcrawler recently have been on par with Orthanc, at about 280 per month. Apart from 4 May of course, when sales went to about 1500 (so about 6 months worth of steady sales) in the promo period.

The problem is you can't exclude the U.S. Hub if you want to properly look or compare the two products or product lines. Yes they look to have some parity in Europe. But that is where the LoTR line is strongest, and also where Star Wars sales are weakest worldwide. Whereas over in the high volume high margin US Market Star Wars remains a license to print money and LotRs/The Hobbit is largely driven from toy shelves. So the actual overall numbers are probably very different than what just the Euro numbers imply in isolation.

[MAB]

The problem is you can't exclude the U.S. Hub if you want to properly look or compare the two products or product lines. Yes they look to have some parity in Europe. But that is where the LoTR line is strongest, and also where Star Wars sales are weakest worldwide. Whereas over in the high volume high margin US Market Star Wars remains a license to print money and LotRs/The Hobbit is largely driven from toy shelves. So the actual overall numbers are probably very different than what just the Euro numbers imply in isolation.

I know. But only one set of data is available. So you either use it, or not. The Euro hub also serves most of the world excluding North America. Of course having the US data would be great, but we don't.

You are comparing a set that came out in 2013 (Orthanc) to one that came out over half a year later in 2014 and nearly two years later in 2015 That's not a very good comparison. Of course sales are going to dramatically decrease after the first couple months. They are going to be especially low towards the end of a sets run like which is where Orthanc is at. The fact it's only selling 40 less sets a yeay behind the Sandcrawler release when the Sandcrawler is newer and comes from a much more popular line says a lot though.

You have to use whatever available data you have. Sure Orthanc came out in 2013 and others are later. I chose Simpsons House and Kwik-E-Mart since they are also D2C and separated by a year, to look at how the sales rate differs for new set vs old set. I doubt whether something is 1 year out vs 2 year out has much difference on the sales rate, at least compared to 1 year out vs brand new to the market. What we don't know and will probably never know is whether the sales rate for Orthanc is different after 2 years compared to after 1 year coming out. Looking at The Simpsons house in another year might give an indication on the decay of sales rates on D2C sets on a longer term. What is clear is that I shouldn't compare Orthanc to Kwik-E-Mart since one is old and one is new - which is why I didn't compare the two.

As to the Sandcrawler and most larger SW sets, I expect "standard" sales to slow down from January onwards, since people know the May 4th promo is coming up and they will get something extra back by waiting. Again, in a year it will be possible to check sales rates if lego don't block the data release. PS. The data is monthly, not yearly, and as I noted I excluded the massive spike at 4th May. They sold six months worth of the Sandcrawler at the pre-May 4th sales rate over that promo period, showing Sandcrawler has a much bigger current demand than Orthanc.

[Deathleech]

You have to use whatever available data you have. Sure Orthanc came out in 2013 and others are later. I chose Simpsons House and Kwik-E-Mart since they are also D2C and separated by a year, to look at how the sales rate differs for new set vs old set. I doubt whether something is 1 year out vs 2 year out has much difference on the sales rate, at least compared to 1 year out vs brand new to the market. What we don't know and will probably never know is whether the sales rate for Orthanc is different after 2 years compared to after 1 year coming out. Looking at The Simpsons house in another year might give an indication on the decay of sales rates on D2C sets on a longer term. What is clear is that I shouldn't compare Orthanc to Kwik-E-Mart since one is old and one is new - which is why I didn't compare the two.

I just know with video games, after the first few months sales drop off the face of the earth. Obviously Lego sets aren't video games and their sales will continue much longer and not have as sharp of a decline, but I still think there WILL be a decline as time goes on. More and more people who want the set will save up and buy it and it will eventually peter out till it's selling next to nothing. I'm not really sure where you are getting your data from so a link would be great so I can analyze it a little more month to month.

As to the Sandcrawler and most larger SW sets, I expect "standard" sales to slow down from January onwards, since people know the May 4th promo is coming up and they will get something extra back by waiting. Again, in a year it will be possible to check sales rates if lego don't block the data release. PS. The data is monthly, not yearly, and as I noted I excluded the massive spike at 4th May. They sold six months worth of the Sandcrawler at the pre-May 4th sales rate over that promo period, showing Sandcrawler has a much bigger current demand than Orthanc.

Right, but then you have to take into account discounts that cut into sales figures and such. Also do we have data for Orthanc sales when a double VIP month was going on? Do we earlier in it's life cycle? Lego sells all their big D2C and UCS sets for around 2 years for a reason. I would venture to guess that is when the sales really start to go down and most people who want the set have already bought it. Orthanc should literally be a few months away from being retired since it's coming up on 2 years. This is why I feel like it's unfair to compare the two, but you seem to totally be neglecting that fact.

You are making it sound like Orthanc came out a month or two before the Sandcrawler so their sales should be in the same ballpark if they had equal popularity. That simply is not the case. Nearly a year is a long time. For it to only be selling roughly 15% less a month than the Sandcrawler seems like it would have been more popular if they had been released side by side. I would expect a 25-50% difference in sales considering the Sandcrawler has only seen half it's retail life cycle while Orthanc has seen nearly all of it. Why not compare the Sandcrawler to the Simpson House? Both were released almost exactly the same time yet the Simpson House is selling almost 60% more month to month (excluding promo). Of course there are other things to take into account like the SC is $100 more making it even harder or impossible to obtain for people than the cheaper Orthanc. On the other hand the SC also has way more exclusive prints making it more appealing so all of these things play a factor as well.

Edited June 1, 2015 by Deathleech

[Blakstone]

US Shop@Home shows Orthanc as being Out of Stock and shipping in 30 days. Would that mean a new production run or just moving stock from other locations?

I think LotR is a success for LEGO, but they may want to target an older audience than when they did the first two waves. There just is no reason to promote it as heavily in the Dimensions game otherwise.

[greenalfonzo]

I bought the Sandcrawler that came out 10 years ago, and am skipping the current version because of that.

[Flieger]

If it were Minas Tirith instead it might have even more sales at this point.

Just because it is Minas Tirith, it does not automatically sell well even with LotR-fans. I would love a Gondorian set, but I don't see myself buying that particular Ideas-set. It was discussed before, and I am in the camp of the people who think it is mis-scaled.

Minias Tirith as Lego Architecture-set - yea! Main Gate with Grond - yea! (plus wall segments sold seperately). Citadel of MT - yea! The whole city on minifig scale - big nay.

I supported the idea, but only to show Lego that I am still interested in Tolkien-stuff.

But the last thing we need is Lego daring to make a bold move and release a big Tolkien-set ... only to see it fail.

I think it would be more sensible thinking of a Tolkien-set in the 50€ price range. A big, brick build fell beast for example.

[Alcarin]

Just because it is Minas Tirith, it does not automatically sell well even with LotR-fans. I would love a Gondorian set, but I don't see myself buying that particular Ideas-set. It was discussed before, and I am in the camp of the people who think it is mis-scaled.

Minias Tirith as Lego Architecture-set - yea! Main Gate with Grond - yea! (plus wall segments sold seperately). Citadel of MT - yea! The whole city on minifig scale - big nay.

I supported the idea, but only to show Lego that I am still interested in Tolkien-stuff.

But the last thing we need is Lego daring to make a bold move and release a big Tolkien-set ... only to see it fail.

I think it would be more sensible thinking of a Tolkien-set in the 50€ price range. A big, brick build fell beast for example.

Exactly..... nice to read more who think the same. A minifig scale Minas Tirith would mostly be bad out of scale..... due to size problems and piece count.......

Id rather that we would get Balrog over Fell beast though, as far as sets are concerned, because Balrog would look cooler..... but minifigs to go with Balrog would be quite uninteresting..... Gandalf, Moria Orc, and perhaps Boromir, since he was only in 1 set......

[Flieger]

I agree that the Balrog would be a cool build, but I already have Gandalf(s) and Boromir.

I lack an Eowyn and an armoured Witch-King.

If Lego wants to go with old prints and parts, they can do the Balrog and I would certainly buy it.

[Blakstone]

As so much time has passed since LotR sets came out, if there was a new wave, I suspect they would repeat many of the main characters. I would hope though they would have new printings though. For example, Gandalf can have battle damage on his grey cloak in a Balrog set. Perhaps Sting could be glow in the dark.

If wishes were horses...

[HawkLord]

I think now wouldn't make complete sense for Lego to drop a huge Minas Tirith set with all the major licenses on their plate. Arguably, most of the same fans who love LOTR also love Star Wars and Marvel. A large LOTR set may get passed on by many consumers (myself included) in lieu of other purchases from IPs that are just super hot at the moment. I just don't quite need a large grey castle right now compared to needing the new SW or Avengers sets.

Now I could use a Balrog or a Fell Beast in a $60 price point set. That I could budget out well with my other purchases this year.

[Deathleech]

Just because it is Minas Tirith, it does not automatically sell well even with LotR-fans. I would love a Gondorian set, but I don't see myself buying that particular Ideas-set.

Right, which is why I said it MIGHT sell more. Quite honestly I am not sure. A higher price point and having to be shrunk down so much might hurt sales, but on the other hand any exclusive minifigures (especially Eowyn, the Witch King, or Gondor Soldiers) could more than make up for that. Plus it is Minas Tirith, which in itself would make it highly sought after.

I'm not saying that Nuju's MT was perfect. I think it could use some tweaking, especially with the huge trebuchets being shrunk down and other parts added to like the walls to make them higher. I think it's a good starting point though. I don't know why people complain about Minas Tirith having to be shrunk down when Helm's Deep was shrunk down a ton itself? I mean look at it.. the walls are barely 2 minifigures high where as in the movie they are over 50 feet. The front ramp is a few inches high and minifigures can climb up it. There is no mountain backing, no Glittering Caves, nothing for interior barely. The side walls only extend a few inches out unless you buy tons of Uruk-hai Army sets and add to it, in the movies they are thousands of feet long. I understand Minas Tirith would need to be shrunk down even more than this possibly (depending on the price point), but I would rather have something than nothing. None of the Lego LotR or Hobbit sets are really to scale anyways so it doesn't bother me much.

In all honesty though, I don't even want a Minas Tirith as much as I want Eowyn vs the Witch King on a Fel Beast and a way to fairly easily amass Gondor Soldiers. Minas Tirith is the only set that could encompass both outside a Pelennor Fields set. I mean Lego could make an Osgiliath set and just throw Eowyn in despite her never being seen there in the movies, but ya...

Edited June 2, 2015 by Deathleech

[atreyu2112]

I voted for the Minas Tirith set simply because I want more Lord of the Rings, but I also agree that such a huge set would be a hard sell. I personally don't have anywhere to display it! And while it could possibly fill most of the holes in the theme, I'd much rather get a small wave of sets equalling the value of the that Minas Tirith that would address the other holes as well, like the Balrog, Treebeard and Sauron as well as Witch-king, Fell Beast, Eowyn, Faramir, Gothmog, etc...

[MAB]

In all honesty though, I don't even want a Minas Tirith as much as I want Eowyn vs the Witch King on a Fel Beast and a way to fairly easily amass Gondor Soldiers.

And there is the ideas problem, these sort of things are not making it. Lego didn't make them in the previous line-up and people are not voting for them on ideas.

There is another Fell Beast project on ideas, let's see how this one does https://ideas.lego.com/projects/103959 although it is similar to the one https://ideas.lego.com/projects/41453 that didn't make it 1/3 of the way.

[wesker]

And there is the ideas problem, these sort of things are not making it. Lego didn't make them in the previous line-up and people are not voting for them on ideas.

There is another Fell Beast project on ideas, let's see how this one does https://ideas.lego.com/projects/103959 although it is similar to the one https://ideas.lego.com/projects/41453 that didn't make it 1/3 of the way.

They need more exposure. Minas Tirith was once sitting around 4000 for quite some time. It needed the Staff Picks on the frontpage as well as other websites promoting it to help give the boost it required to reach the 10,000 mark.

[MAB]

An alternative view is that they need people to want them. It is clear people are not going to ideas, searching for Witch King, and voting for projects.

Of course, we know that is not how ideas projects get to 10,000. Yet the massive existing fan base does not seem to be giving these smaller projects a boost like Dr Who fans have done, same for Golden Girls, BBT, Zelda, Minecraft, etc.

[AFOLguy1970]

Honestly, I think the best chance of getting a LOTR set through ideas would be the Balrog. You should be able to make a decent Balrog with existing molds. The thing that will doom any Witch King project is going to be that helmet. Since there is a "no new mold" rule, there would be no way of getting anything that resembles the helmet. Without that one piece, the whole scene falls apart, even if you can get Eowyn and the Fell Beast in the set.

Gondor soldiers face a similar problem. The helmet is unlike anything Lego has made, therefore a mold would be required there. Some have also indicated that a new shield would be in order. Having the tree printed on the torso should not be a problem, but the helmet again would make this difficult.

[Alcarin]

Right, which is why I said it MIGHT sell more. Quite honestly I am not sure. A higher price point and having to be shrunk down so much might hurt sales, but on the other hand any exclusive minifigures (especially Eowyn, the Witch King, or Gondor Soldiers) could more than make up for that. Plus it is Minas Tirith, which in itself would make it highly sought after.

I'm not saying that Nuju's MT was perfect. I think it could use some tweaking, especially with the huge trebuchets being shrunk down and other parts added to like the walls to make them higher. I think it's a good starting point though. I don't know why people complain about Minas Tirith having to be shrunk down when Helm's Deep was shrunk down a ton itself? I mean look at it.. the walls are barely 2 minifigures high where as in the movie they are over 50 feet. The front ramp is a few inches high and minifigures can climb up it. There is no mountain backing, no Glittering Caves, nothing for interior barely. The side walls only extend a few inches out unless you buy tons of Uruk-hai Army sets and add to it, in the movies they are thousands of feet long. I understand Minas Tirith would need to be shrunk down even more than this possibly (depending on the price point), but I would rather have something than nothing. None of the Lego LotR or Hobbit sets are really to scale anyways so it doesn't bother me much.

In all honesty though, I don't even want a Minas Tirith as much as I want Eowyn vs the Witch King on a Fel Beast and a way to fairly easily amass Gondor Soldiers. Minas Tirith is the only set that could encompass both outside a Pelennor Fields set. I mean Lego could make an Osgiliath set and just throw Eowyn in despite her never being seen there in the movies, but ya...

Well the main problem of Minas Tirith is, that if i recall correctly, the Citadel including the White Tower of Ecthelion is taller than Orthanc itself... by a decent margin may i add...... While we all understand that It cannot be realistical, but I do however expect sets based on movies to carry some proportions with other sets and itself..... Now if Minas Tirith is released, I would expect and want it to look majestic towards the 2 best LOTR sets of Helm's Deep and Orthanc...... and to achieve such thing it has to be higher and more epic..... and quite honesty I cannot see any Minas Tirith below Death Star lvl to achieve anything near that......

Thats why it would be better to (if at all) release modular Minas Tirith, as first lvl (gates + wall expansion) and perhaps UCL Orthanc style White tower with the Hall of Kings for 300$ with 3.000 pieces......

[Deathleech]

An alternative view is that they need people to want them. It is clear people are not going to ideas, searching for Witch King, and voting for projects.

Of course, we know that is not how ideas projects get to 10,000. Yet the massive existing fan base does not seem to be giving these smaller projects a boost like Dr Who fans have done, same for Golden Girls, BBT, Zelda, Minecraft, etc.

There are two reasons I (and possibly others?) don't want a brick built Fel Beast though. First off I can build it myself. Secondly, all the other large creatures in the LotR and Hobbit line are molded save the Ent and Shelob. I would want a molded Fel Beast seeing as the eagles and Smaug are both molded creatures. It would look weird having them molded then having a Fel Beast brick built (which would be as large or larger than Smaug...).

Not only that, none of the Balrog or Fel Beast/Witch King sets on Ideas really look that polished imo. This goes a long ways to making people vote for a project. It's true not many people are going to Lego Ideas and searching for Lego Lord of the Rings sets and then voting, but that's to be expected. You have to be a Lego fan, AND a LotR fan, AND be active on Ideas to even possibly vote for any of these sets. Most of the sets that pass get some sort of HUGE publicity to help them from my understanding. The Purdue Pete got 10,000 votes in a few days because it was promoted throughout the campus and thousands of people rushed on to vote for it (despite most prolly not spending the money to buy the finished product). Big Bang was promoted on twitter by one of the producers. As wesker points out, the Minas Tirith was around 4-5k votes until it became a staff pick, then it got the last 5k votes it needed in just a few short months.

[Dr.Cogg]

I think the reason people don't go to TLG Idea's any more is because, it does not accomplish anything, everything the fans give 10,000 votes to seem to get shot down by TLG, and the ones that people think are the least likely( and on the more boring side), get the sets or TLG steals the Idea for later, like Portal, Wizard of OZ, Scooby Doo, Ect... (which I think is awful to the people who brought the ideas to TLG).

[Blondie-Wan]

I think the reason people don't go to TLG Idea's any more is because, it does not accomplish anything, everything the fans give 10,000 votes to seem to get shot down by TLG, and the ones that people think are the least likely( and on the more boring side), get the sets or TLG steals the Idea for later, like Portal, Wizard of OZ, Scooby Doo, Ect... (which I think is awful to the people who brought the ideas to TLG).

Not everything - thirteen projects have been approved already, and more are approved all the time.

And TLG doesn't "steal" sets. Even those licensed franchises and themes that have been CUUSOO / Ideas projects that didn't get approved and that later got LEGO Dimensions packs or whatever have key differences between the fan projects that were proposed for sets and the actual sets that resulted. The Portal project on CUUSOO was not for an add-on pack for a videogame, with the only physical brick components being a minifigure and two tiny side builds, but for a whole little environment with walls and a floor and everything. The Portal 2 Level Pack for LEGO Dimensions is fundamentally different from the Thinking With Portals! CUUSOO project. Similarly, the The Wizard of Oz 75th Anniversary project on CUUSOO portrayed a whole section of the Yellow Brick Road, the Emerald City, etc., and minifigures of Dorothy, Scarecrow, Tin Man, etc., while the Wicked Witch Fun Pack for LEGO Dimensions has none of that. It is fundamentally different from what CUUSOO voters voted for. The only connection is that it's based on the same property, and that's not something the project creator owns. And Scooby-Doo never even had a CUUSOO / Ideas project that got to 10,000 votes before LEGO started working with the license; it still hasn't.

[australopithecine]

I quit going to Lego Ideas because they keep shooting down the Zelda sets.

My kingdom for a Zelda set...

[MAB]

Not only that, none of the Balrog or Fel Beast/Witch King sets on Ideas really look that polished imo. This goes a long ways to making people vote for a project. It's true not many people are going to Lego Ideas and searching for Lego Lord of the Rings sets and then voting, but that's to be expected. You have to be a Lego fan, AND a LotR fan, AND be active on Ideas to even possibly vote for any of these sets. Most of the sets that pass get some sort of HUGE publicity to help them from my understanding. The Purdue Pete got 10,000 votes in a few days because it was promoted throughout the campus and thousands of people rushed on to vote for it (despite most prolly not spending the money to buy the finished product). Big Bang was promoted on twitter by one of the producers. As wesker points out, the Minas Tirith was around 4-5k votes until it became a staff pick, then it got the last 5k votes it needed in just a few short months.

I agree. It seems that there is no LOTR fanbase that is clamoring to get these sets made by getting the members of the fanbase to vote, compared to Purdue Pete or Big Bang or Golden Girls or any of the others. That suggests that the fanbase is not that bothered.

If LOTR fans have not bought into LOTR lego already, then having a fell beast set is fairly meaningless to them. What's the point of it if they cannot get the Fellowship? Whereas a Big Bang Theory set containing the main cast makes perfect sense for a Big Bang Theory fan to vote for it.

[Dr.Cogg]

My point about TLG stealing the Idea, is would TLG have ever gone after that license if some one hadn't pointed it out.

[Deathleech]

I agree. It seems that there is no LOTR fanbase that is clamoring to get these sets made by getting the members of the fanbase to vote, compared to Purdue Pete or Big Bang or Golden Girls or any of the others. That suggests that the fanbase is not that bothered.

I dunno, it seems like when sets get some publicity or they are featured on the front page of Ideas they start to gather steam. Minas Tirith reached 10,000 votes and Lothlorien is well on it's way with less 1,500 votes to go. I would be anxious to see how a really well polished $40-70 dollar Ideas set did if it got some decent publicity.

If LOTR fans have not bought into LOTR lego already, then having a fell beast set is fairly meaningless to them. What's the point of it if they cannot get the Fellowship? Whereas a Big Bang Theory set containing the main cast makes perfect sense for a Big Bang Theory fan to vote for it.

Well a large Minas Tirith set could give us new prints of Aragorn (king attire), Pippin (Gondor attire), and Merry (Rohan attire), but it would still be missing Frodo, Sam, and Boromir at the very least. It could also have Gandalf the White, Gimli, and Legolas, though the last two will be purchasable in the upcoming Dimension sets.

Realistically I agree though, the time has come and past for a huge D2C Minas Tirith. I don't think we will ever get one. In all honesty I don't think we will see Gondor Soldiers either. I think our best bet now is a Team or Fun pack featuring Eowyn and the Witch King, and maybe a brick built set featuring a Balrog or something if Lego releases actual significant brick built sets like that for their Dimensions game.