Do you want the Lego collectible bubble to burst?

[AFOLguy1970]

The only thing I really would like to see change is not necessarily with sets as it is with parts. Some parts, especially sand green ones, seem to be way more rare than they have to be. Not only are sets sometimes hoarded for later resale, but so are certain parts. There is no reason why some colors with basic bricks such as 1x1, 1x2, etc. can not be available at least on online PAB, especially colors like sand green, dark orange, earth blue,and other bricks that would appeal to people wanting to build something of their own. Lego seems to be all about creativity. Even the Lego Movie was very suggestive of taking something apart and building something new. If the availability of individual parts was greater, this would help in a big way. Unfortunately, the shrinking availability on online PAB and the limited availability of parts at the Lego store's PAB walls is not helping much. Whenever I try to design something on LDD, I am constantly checking Bricklink to see if (1) the part even exists in that color and (2) how much would it cost to get x number of the parts. I wish it could be just as easy to get a sand green 1x4 as it would be to get a white 1x4. Same amount of plastic, totally different experience in actually trying to get some.

[MAB]

There is one good reason that they make some of the more popular 'natural' colours rare. If you could buy 1x4 sand green at a PAB wall, then sales of sets with sand green bricks in them would drop. They know exactly what they are doing there.

[x105Black]

Sales probably wouldn't drop that much. They should make every color as available as the next.

[BimmerBoy]

Lego tested another re-release with the Winter Village Toy Shop during this past holiday season. They got an earful from AFOL's about that, but I don't know how well the set actually did.

My local Lego Store says they sell quite a bit to adults who are buying for themselves, but they also indicate these people are one (or two) and done customers, not repeat shoppers like AFOL's.

[Blondie-Wan]

I'm not so sure. The UCS MF has been the flagship set of the investment articles. With a bit of Taj Mahal, Cafe Corner, etc. But it is the Falcon that seems to be the star of the articles. Now what happens if that plummets in value? The general public then get the don't invest in lego slant, look what happened to the Falcon. This will cut current sales of people investing and this is likely to hit sales overall. I haven't a clue what proportion of sets (especially the larger, AFOL aimed ones) are investment rather than consumer. But if sales are down by even a small proportion it may be enough to convince lego there is no longer a viable AFOL market.

I don't think sales to investors trump those to people who want the sets to enjoy as sets, though, and TLG exercises particular pride and care with the Star Wars theme / license. They'll issue a new UCS-style Millennium Falcon if and when they think the time is right for it and that the market will bear it - which may not be ever, but it won't be because of fears of "ruining investments" (at least, not principally).

[a-star]

Sales probably wouldn't drop that much. They should make every color as available as the next.

He's right. It's the same reason they don't sell new elements on B&P.

I recently bought a dozen of the new 1x1's with the decorative scroll in white off of bricklink. They only come in one set, so in order for me to get them the seller had to buy six copies of that set. If they sold the parts on B&P, I would have gotten them there which would have meant significantly less sales. Lego is able to manage the supply of these bricks by only releasing them in sets, and ensure sales of other more profitable or less desirable bricks in the process.

Take last year's seasonal sets for example. Many of them featured rare and desirable bricks in interesting colours, and for that reason they sold very well, or at least they did at my local Lego store. Take the valentines set for example. I think it had seven sand green masonry bricks, about the same amount of sand blue 1x2's with groove, a couple inverted slopes in cool yellow, a one ring and some bottles, ect. Let's say it had about $5 worth of rare parts, while the set cost $10 or $12. It's easy to see that by managing their supply in this manner they are able to generate a lot more profit and control production more efficiently as well.

I think I bought eight of those sets, mostly for parts to use on a modified version of the Green Grocer that I plan on building. Heck, I bought three Lonely Mountain sets on sale, solely for the sand green parts I need for GG. Sure it would be nice to walk up to a PAB wall and fill a cup with those sand green 1x4's (more like five cups) but Lego is a business, not a charity.

[Robianco]

I don't think sellers necessarily get multiple copies of sets to accumulate certain pieces in quantity... There are plenty of sellers with ridiculous quantities of certain items. How they pick them up I don't know but I don't think it's just down to parting out sets.

With regards to rereleases I'm really not that bothered by the exact same set coming out but an updated version seems to be the ideal solution. 7191 X-Wing was just updated with 10240 and I think the Falcon could do with a few improvements. That way the original 10179 remains a collectors item for people who want to collect but a big chunk of the scalping edge is taken off with a new release.

With regards to buyers picking up sets for resale being such as big deal I don't think it is... hoarders grabbing sets to stockpile would simply be replaced by people who will buy the sets but it may just be over a longer time. I've read about people in Australia buying up a whole trolley of Lego before it's actually put on the shelf. F** that person... that stuff will sell but it may be over days, weeks or maybe even over a month rather than just in a day but it'll sell. It won't have any great effect in Lego's sales or cashflow and the right people will get the sets.

I hope people rushed out to buy the Death Star for resale... it was on the shelves for 8 years and a new one is coming... You may get your purchase price but is it worth spending around £250 for a set to have it hover at roughly the same cost in a few years? Maybe go up by £50 eventually? After eBay fees you're not looking at much of a profit especially when every figure has been updated since so there's nothing special in it.

I don't care about the bubble bursting for collectors. Do I think that it will have an adverse effect on Lego's sales because scalpers and other resellers won't be bulk buying to speculate? No. Do I think Lego underestimates the amount of AFOL spend? No. The largest toy company in the world is very aware of it's demographic. I actually think the importance of AFOLs is greatly overestimated by AFOLs especially on a forum populated by AFOLs. There are thousands of us on this site... not all AFOLs despite the rules... but enough to make this feel like a large, global community of (mostly) like minded people. Tens of thousands maybe? Nothing to the millions of kids who enjoy their Lego sets... the odd £10 or £20 sets.. the £30-£50 sets... Never mind the larger sets they'll be purchased for special occasions. I actually know more kids with large 'collections' of Lego than I do AFOLs. Kids don't collect toys... they get toys they like and they play with them... It's when we get older it's considered a collection. All my Kenner SW figures when I was a kid wasn't a collection... they were just my toys and I played with them every single day of my childhood. They were never collected.

I just think Lego is hugely popular... it may have reached it's peak in popularity and it will work to sustain it but this won't be hugely affected by any loss of considered collectibility by those who look at it for profit.

[kibosh]

Lego tested another re-release with the Winter Village Toy Shop during this past holiday season. They got an earful from AFOL's about that, but I don't know how well the set actually did.

I think they got an earful because it was a bad idea for AFOLs. I didn't purchase one this year, because I already had it. I was upset that there wasn't a new set to add to my scene, not because it affected the set I already owned in any way. I get why TLG did it. Now that people know there's a possibility to get sets they missed out on, they are much more likely to jump on board now, rather than avoid the theme altogether.

There is one good reason that they make some of the more popular 'natural' colours rare. If you could buy 1x4 sand green at a PAB wall, then sales of sets with sand green bricks in them would drop. They know exactly what they are doing there.

I totally disagree with this. Maybe a handful of people buy up multiple copies of a particular set for specific bricks, but it can't be many. And if it was the case, they would more than make up the difference in PaB sales. If I could order all the pieces I needs to build more modulars, I'd be in a constant state of accumulating pieces and building. I would think PaB sales would be much more economical for TLG to sell. No boxes or instructions to print, no guessing at production numbers, etc.

Take last year's seasonal sets for example. Many of them featured rare and desirable bricks in interesting colours, and for that reason they sold very well, or at least they did at my local Lego store. Take the valentines set for example. I think it had seven sand green masonry bricks, about the same amount of sand blue 1x2's with groove, a couple inverted slopes in cool yellow, a one ring and some bottles, ect. Let's say it had about $5 worth of rare parts, while the set cost $10 or $12. It's easy to see that by managing their supply in this manner they are able to generate a lot more profit and control production more efficiently as well.

The seasonal sets sold out quickly because they sell out quickly EVERY year and EVERY season. They are interesting sets with cute builds. As a parent, I love buying these for my kids, and they love them as decorations around the house.

I don't think sellers necessarily get multiple copies of sets to accumulate certain pieces in quantity... There are plenty of sellers with ridiculous quantities of certain items. How they pick them up I don't know but I don't think it's just down to parting out sets.

With regards to buyers picking up sets for resale being such as big deal I don't think it is... hoarders grabbing sets to stockpile would simply be replaced by people who will buy the sets but it may just be over a longer time. I've read about people in Australia buying up a whole trolley of Lego before it's actually put on the shelf. F** that person... that stuff will sell but it may be over days, weeks or maybe even over a month rather than just in a day but it'll sell. It won't have any great effect in Lego's sales or cashflow and the right people will get the sets.

I do think some bricklinkers pick up mass quantities of some sets for specific pieces, but then they sell off the rest. But the rest of the pieces that are sold on Bricklink take away sales from TLG. Their net-net is the same regardless.

[Brickadier General]

I generally don't pay much attention to set values and don't really buy to invest, so the bubble doesn't have as much of an impact on me. Sometimes, I have dabbled with buying something to keep and resell because it was cheap enough at the time and I knew it would have long-term appeal (ie: the BTTF DeLorean). It can help pad my "brickdiction" a little bit. hehe I would never recommend hanging on to LEGO as a long-term investment strategy. I'm a builder, so I can't even imagine having an entire closet-full of unopened sets. I don't know about a bursting bubble but think interest will most certainly wane at some point. However, I think as long as LEGO remains relevant with children some values will hold steady as the adults of tomorrow seek to capture a part of their youth.

Other hobbies have not fared so well, such as model railroading. How many kids do you know that have a LIONEL train and play with it on a regular basis? It's not as popular as it was in the 1950s and the hardcore collectors are aging, and fewer young people are interested in carrying on the torch. Bubble or not, I hope that never happens with LEGO.

[HoganPrime]

So I bought a CMF 15 and got a kendo fighter. Here I. China cmfs are 29rmb which is the equivalent of a UK £2.90. For China that is pretty expensive but I don't mind. Anyway I was checking eBay and the same minifig was marked up to 79rmb and 110rmb altoeghter for shipping... Its ridiculous. The shark suit guy was going for 640rmb in some listing, over £60!!!

[MAB]

I think they got an earful because it was a bad idea for AFOLs. I didn't purchase one this year, because I already had it. I was upset that there wasn't a new set to add to my scene, not because it affected the set I already owned in any way. I get why TLG did it. Now that people know there's a possibility to get sets they missed out on, they are much more likely to jump on board now, rather than avoid the theme altogether.

I totally disagree with this. Maybe a handful of people buy up multiple copies of a particular set for specific bricks, but it can't be many. And if it was the case, they would more than make up the difference in PaB sales. If I could order all the pieces I needs to build more modulars, I'd be in a constant state of accumulating pieces and building. I would think PaB sales would be much more economical for TLG to sell. No boxes or instructions to print, no guessing at production numbers, etc.

The seasonal sets sold out quickly because they sell out quickly EVERY year and EVERY season. They are interesting sets with cute builds. As a parent, I love buying these for my kids, and they love them as decorations around the house.

I do think some bricklinkers pick up mass quantities of some sets for specific pieces, but then they sell off the rest. But the rest of the pieces that are sold on Bricklink take away sales from TLG. Their net-net is the same regardless.

I don't understand your reasoning. You say only a handful of people pick up sets for specific parts, but then that bricklinkers pick up sets in mass quantities for specific parts and sell off the rest. These people are often the same people. On many occasions I have bought 10x one set to get multiple new parts, then sold off the minifigs and other parts to get my money back (often make a profit). I do it less now you can buy most generic parts on bricks and pieces.

[ChrisW]

I think The Lego Movie was responsible for increasing the general publics' interest in Lego, and as a result, scalpers are in full force buying sets up for reselling when they go on sale (or even full price). It's a particular problem here in Australia, where we have limited stock anyway, and the sets don't end up in the hands of kids or AFOLs, but flogged on eBay etc at hugely inflated prices.

So I do hope the bubble bursts eventually for this reason alone, but with several new Lego movies due out in the near future, I don't see that happening anytime soon.

[a-star]

I don't think sellers necessarily get multiple copies of sets to accumulate certain pieces in quantity... There are plenty of sellers with ridiculous quantities of certain items. How they pick them up I don't know but I don't think it's just down to parting out sets.

You're absolutely right. They don't necessarily do that. A lot of them will order bulk parts from Lego directly, which is one of the ways that they obtain large amounts of parts. They also collect them from other bricklinkers or customers who are selling off their parts.

I totally disagree with this. Maybe a handful of people buy up multiple copies of a particular set for specific bricks, but it can't be many. And if it was the case, they would more than make up the difference in PaB sales. If I could order all the pieces I needs to build more modulars, I'd be in a constant state of accumulating pieces and building. I would think PaB sales would be much more economical for TLG to sell. No boxes or instructions to print, no guessing at production numbers, etc.

The seasonal sets sold out quickly because they sell out quickly EVERY year and EVERY season. They are interesting sets with cute builds. As a parent, I love buying these for my kids, and they love them as decorations around the house.

I do think some bricklinkers pick up mass quantities of some sets for specific pieces, but then they sell off the rest. But the rest of the pieces that are sold on Bricklink take away sales from TLG. Their net-net is the same regardless.

I agree that the amount of people buying multiple sets in order to obtain specific parts is probably not that high, which is why it makes more sense for Lego to limit the availability of rare parts. They make the majority of their products for the general public, not AFOLs, so it makes sense to use more generic parts that are useful across a wide range of sets and themes. Most customers that want and have a need for large amounts of rare bricks are going to take the steps to obtain them. And you can order all the pieces to make modulars, from BrickLink. I know one local BrickLink seller spent over $20,000 at the Lego store this last December. That is only in December. That is not from PAB, that is from sets, which were then parted out and sold online. None of those parts took any money out of TLG's pocket. Then there were all the other sales of the same sets to parents and relatives for presents and children spending their allowances, ect.

Also, the seasonal sets definitely do not sell out every year. In 2014 during the November invitation only VIP sale they were giving them away for free, then during christmas they had the sets from several seasons in the bargain bin. That did not occur last year, and so far this year both sets are back in the bargain bin.

[Andy D]

My attitude is to buy new, or not at all. If the price is more than I want to pay, well, I just won't buy it. On new sets if I really want a set the price is rarely too high.

The secondary market is driven by buyers, not sellers. If buyers weren't buying, then sellers would not be selling.

If the price is too high, don't buy it. If you want it, then buy it, pay the price. Remember, on the secondary market, the price fluctuates according to what the buyer will pay.

Just MHO, YMMV,

Andy D

Edited March 28, 2016 by Andy D

[Naptown11]

As someone that loved playing with Lego as a child and saved every one of them, granted they are all in huge boxes not arranged, and then recently getting back into them with my children I have a little different viewpoint. Since I could afford to buy a used Cafe Corner Mint with box and all extra pieces, Green Grocer the same, and every set after that New In Box I have invested a fair amount of money into having the complete modular line and plan on modding many of them, I already added a floor to the Cafe Corner and an extra floor to the Green Grocer. I'm building a double wide Highlander Saloon from Detectives Office. My only point is that if you have enough capital to make these both an investment and a toy then there is nothing inherently wrong with it. I don't think that any of the new sets that have come out will ever be as truly collectible as the old modulars or Millennium Falcon. These pieces and a few others will always have considerable value but I just don't see new sets being made in small enough batch to truly make them collectible i.e. Pet Shop has been rumored to be discontinued for almost 2 years, but Town Hall has value because nobody bought it. I bought a Helicarrier and the Ghostbusters house and I don't see them ever going over $500 for a new in box in the next 10 years. Every great toy will eventually become collectible and some items will be pushed past some peoples salaries but thats the way of the world unfortunately, just be happy that Lego is not going anywhere and there will always be plenty of bricks to play with.

[Swan Dutchman]

Do I want the bubble to burst? Yes and no to be honost.

I don't really care about sets... I only build MOCs. Thus, the major thing for me is the availability and variety of parts. The greater the variety in colour and shapes the more advanced MOCs can become. If the bubble keeps going the LEGO group simply makes more money and will continue to invest in new moulds and thus new parts. This is a big plus as an MOC-builder.

On the other hand. At the moment LEGO costs loads of money, especially the license themes. Since parts are my main focus I buy considerably less sets (with a license) unless I desperately want a certain minifig. If the bubble would burst, I assume prices would drop a bit because there is less demand. And I could buy more sets with the same amount of money.

It was common that when the summer or winter wave arrived older sets would get discounted (sometimes a lot) to make shelf space for the new sets in the stores. For the last 2 years this barely seems to happen anymore. If the bubble would burst this would be back to normal.

And there is the second hand LEGO. I love to get my hands on a big quantity of second hand lego so I can coninue MOCing (I began MOCing as an adult and had no lego left from my childhood, so getting older sets back is fun). I am not the only one though, on marktplaats (local ebay) there is a lot of interest in second hand lego and thus prices are generally high. I monitor the market and there seem to be quite a few people that buy second hand lego and sell it again some time later with greater profit. They are just traders... I don't blame them for making money, but hey, they don't have as much fun with lego as we AFOLS do. If the bubble would burst LEGO simply wouldn't be very interesting anymore for traders that don't love LEGO... I would applaud that.

[MAB]

I monitor the market and there seem to be quite a few people that buy second hand lego and sell it again some time later with greater profit. They are just traders... I don't blame them for making money, but hey, they don't have as much fun with lego as we AFOLS do. If the bubble would burst LEGO simply wouldn't be very interesting anymore for traders that don't love LEGO... I would applaud that.

If the bubble burst, it would also hit traders that are interested in lego. There would be less buyers, so they would sell less, so they'd buy less in the first place. If (retail) sales were down, then lego would probably produce less and also produce less new parts.

Bubbles bursting may appear a good thing to get rid of the people that don't really like lego, but that is probably not the case.

Also if you are more into the parts, then licensed sets are great if you are willing to do a little work. Sell off the minifigs and you can normally recoup 75% of the set prices (depends on the size). So the parts are really cheap compared to unlicensed sets. For that to work, you need the minifig collectors.

[Swan Dutchman]

I agree with you MAB. In my previous post I was only stating the advantage (for me) of maintaining a bubble (which is the greater part variety) versus the drawback of the bubble (higher prices of sets in general). Luckily we don't have much influence on whether the bubble ought to burst or not . And obviously I don't want the bubble burst too much when the time comes... I still want LEGO to be a healthy company making bricks for us.

[kibosh]

I still the think the bubble will burst to a degree. More and more people are buying sets and hoarding them. When they realize not all sets appreciate wildly in value, they'll have to start blowing out stock to recoup what they can. This will help me, the guy who just wants LEGO bricks. I buy way more second hand LEGO than new off the shelf. LEGO has already lost most of my sales.

[MattGee]

I still the think the bubble will burst to a degree. More and more people are buying sets and hoarding them. When they realize not all sets appreciate wildly in value, they'll have to start blowing out stock to recoup what they can. This will help me, the guy who just wants LEGO bricks. I buy way more second hand LEGO than new off the shelf. LEGO has already lost most of my sales.

I am feeling like that this year. With a discount and a little extra cash I bought the two UCS sets I really wanted. I have not bought anything that was a new release for myself except one 75105 Star Wars set. I have bought more second hand stuff though of course that has cost less! I never slavishly buy new stuff or must have a whole range except what simply appeals to me. My daughters encouragement is the only thing that has altered this because they wanted the Scooby Doo stuff!