LEGO's greatest risks in the future

[Iria]

^ Well inflation here in the UK is flat and prices have been going up a lot faster that inflation for years now and I agree price is Lego big danger in the next few years.

You're right, inflation rate really depends on where you live. Looking at many of the new sets that came out recently, there has definitely been a jump up in price since last year.

[Breakdown]

As much as Lego is a little under siege, Transformers (Hasbro) is getting attacked from all angles, now Lego's joining in. They already have several third parties attacking them, they even bought the rights to BOT-CON to ban all Non-Hasbro (third party products)

http://www.toysrus.ca/product/index.jsp?productId=15432986

This new Lego product is a bit of a kick in the teeth to Transformers.

They created a jet that turns into a robot (so what) Then they coloured it blue and called it: "Thunder Wings" (set 31008) basically making it a complete rip-off of Decepticon Jet Thundercracker (Find a pic of Thundercracker from somewhere other than Wikipedia and compare).

My thoughts. There's still bad blood in the fact that Lego and Hasbro were not able to work together.

[62Bricks]

I think the fans of 3D printing have successfully hyped it to the point that everyone assumes it's going to disrupt every possible aspect of our lives. But true disruptions can't be planned. I predict zero impact on the plastic building toy market.

Maybe some innovative designer will use it one day to design a superior toy building system, but when he or she wants to go into mass production, it will certainly be with injection molded parts.

[Faefrost]

I think that the main people that will buy lego in the future are people who lived right now or before because the newer generations don't really like toys anymore - the new trend is technology. I also think the current fans of lego cold eventually get bored and these 2 factors mean that lego could see a serious reduction in SALES. Movies of the 21st century lack original plots which means that the involvement in movies is not even a great long-term investment.

Actually the rush towards "technology in play" has pulled back a bit. Video games and purely electronic devices are leveling off and the drive seems to be more towards a blended hybrid. Traditional toys with a technology component, such as Skylanders. Lego's new Agents stuff seems well positioned there.

I think some people have taken some things that might be a little true too far.

3D printing, Lego don't use it for a reason so it still has some way to go, even when it gets there it will take a long time for the cost of one that is good enough to come down so that you and me can buy them and even then the idea that a lot of people might never happen. You need a lot of thing even to make a small Lego set. A lot of different colors and design, printing instructions and so on.

Kids don't play with toy. Well yes they do.

I still think that Lego biggest problem is that they might have reached saturation point, if everyone has Lego then its harder and harder to get more sales. Prices going up could put people off as could quality.

Lego does use 3d printing quite extensively, and we have greatly benefited from it. Rapid less expensive prototyping and element development etc. 3d printing is just nowhere near there on a consumer or full scale industrial production level yet. It will eat into cuto users and small garage kit type shops long before it has any impact on the large toy makers. Right now it is a hobbiest novelty. It has a number of stages to go through before it hits consumer levels. And some of them will involve lengthy court battles over design rights and rights of reproduction.

You are probably right on Saturation level. At least as far as the adult collectors market goes. The aftermarket is sitting on a bubble.

As much as Lego is a little under siege, Transformers (Hasbro) is getting attacked from all angles, now Lego's joining in. They already have several third parties attacking them, they even bought the rights to BOT-CON to ban all Non-Hasbro (third party products)

http://www.toysrus.ca/product/index.jsp?productId=15432986

This new Lego product is a bit of a kick in the teeth to Transformers.

They created a jet that turns into a robot (so what) Then they coloured it blue and called it: "Thunder Wings" (set 31008) basically making it a complete rip-off of Decepticon Jet Thundercracker (Find a pic of Thundercracker from somewhere other than Wikipedia and compare).

My thoughts. There's still bad blood in the fact that Lego and Hasbro were not able to work together.

That set is nothing new. The Creator line has had similar sets every year for Years now. Last year it was a green one.

[MAB]

Yet people keep buying... Prices cannot be that much of a problem.

Edited February 23, 2015 by MAB

[kibosh]

You are probably right on Saturation level. At least as far as the adult collectors market goes. The aftermarket is sitting on a bubble.

I disagree. For every AFOL that might hit their own saturation level, a new AFOL enters our ranks, taking their place. The kids that do enjoy LEGO will eventually grow up, get jobs, and have their own disposable income. Once they do, they'll start buying up all the stuff their parents didn't buy them as kids. Isn't that what the majority of us have done? I bet most AFOLs will raise new AFOLs.

[Breakdown]

That set is nothing new. The Creator line has had similar sets every year for Years now. Last year it was a green one.

I agree, except this time, they pretty much took the name and colour scheme.

Making a Transforming vehicle-robot toy - insignificant.

Making a similarly designed & coloured vehicle - insignificant

Making a similarly named vehicle - insignificant.

Everyone's been doing any number of these for the last half century. All of them together at the same time???

[TheLegGodt]

Isn't that what the majority of us have done? I bet most AFOLs will raise new AFOLs.

Hah i like it: fools raise fools. AFOLs raise AFOLs!

[BirdOPrey5]

As much as Lego is a little under siege, Transformers (Hasbro) is getting attacked from all angles, now Lego's joining in. They already have several third parties attacking them, they even bought the rights to BOT-CON to ban all Non-Hasbro (third party products)

http://www.toysrus.c...ductId=15432986

This new Lego product is a bit of a kick in the teeth to Transformers.

They created a jet that turns into a robot (so what) Then they coloured it blue and called it: "Thunder Wings" (set 31008) basically making it a complete rip-off of Decepticon Jet Thundercracker (Find a pic of Thundercracker from somewhere other than Wikipedia and compare).

My thoughts. There's still bad blood in the fact that Lego and Hasbro were not able to work together.

Can't say I see any resemblance other than they're both based off an F-14 Tomcat.

[dr_spock]

^That plane looks more like an American F15 Eagle. Is it Star Scream?

[Breakdown]

^That plane looks more like an American F15 Eagle. Is it Star Scream?

Starscream (light grey), Thundercracker (blue), and Skywarp (black) were all identical or near identical twins in the original series . . . . so yes, but that's Thundercracker. I realize that everything's not identical, but that looks like a complete ripoff in my books.

[Faefrost]

I agree, except this time, they pretty much took the name and colour scheme.

Making a Transforming vehicle-robot toy - insignificant.

Making a similarly designed & coloured vehicle - insignificant

Making a similarly named vehicle - insignificant.

Everyone's been doing any number of these for the last half century. All of them together at the same time???

It doesn't Transform? The Robot or Mech is one of the three possible builds. The Lego plane is a swing wing craft similar to a British Tornado while the Transformer is clearly a US F-15 Eagle. The only similarity is they both use some blue, but different shades. The Transformer toy is 30 years old (OK I'll give you the 2008 MP series high $$$ collectors piece, which I am guessing did not play into many toymakers plans and had nothing to do with Hasbro). Aside from a TRU exclusive Japanese version import from the same time as this set was released I don't think Thundercracker has been seen from Hasbro in his original colors since 1991 or so? And heck in the 90's his Euro releases were all mainly green and purples.

[alanyuppie]

As much as Lego is a little under siege, Transformers (Hasbro) is getting attacked from all angles, now Lego's joining in. They already have several third parties attacking them, they even bought the rights to BOT-CON to ban all Non-Hasbro (third party products)

http://www.toysrus.ca/product/index.jsp?productId=15432986

This new Lego product is a bit of a kick in the teeth to Transformers.

They created a jet that turns into a robot (so what) Then they coloured it blue and called it: "Thunder Wings" (set 31008) basically making it a complete rip-off of Decepticon Jet Thundercracker (Find a pic of Thundercracker from somewhere other than Wikipedia and compare).

My thoughts. There's still bad blood in the fact that Lego and Hasbro were not able to work together.

1) Hasbro's Thundercracker Blue and LEGO Thunder wings blue are of different tone.

2) Both happens to transform from a jet to robot*, but both jets are OBVIOUSLY different from each other. And both robot* modes are different in terms of proportion too.

3) LEGO not peddling the alternate design (aka robot mode) as sentient or with a biodata similar with characters from TF universe.

*I would prefer to call LEGO's one a MECH / MECHA rather than a robot. =)

*there is no patent/copyright AFAIK on robot-transforming-into-jet-plane.

Your comparison is vague at best.

Edited February 24, 2015 by alanyuppie

[Artanis I]

Did Hasbro actually come up with that Transformer? Most of the early ones were bought from other companies like Takara and not designed by Hasbro at all.

[clm]

The Transformer toy is 30 years old (OK I'll give you the 2008 MP series high $$$ collectors piece, which I am guessing did not play into many toymakers plans and had nothing to do with Hasbro). Aside from a TRU exclusive Japanese version import from the same time as this set was released I don't think Thundercracker has been seen from Hasbro in his original colors since 1991 or so? And heck in the 90's his Euro releases were all mainly green and purples.

The light gray/blue/black trio has been rehashed countless times through the years that G1 example is only the first of the line. Seemingly every time a new transformers toyline came out with one of the seekers it was almost a given that the other two would be out soon enough and when they didn't materialize they would be recreated by repainting by fans. Rarely they will redeco the trio in another color but due to "nostalgia" it was always more of a exception then the norm.

http://tfwiki.net/wiki/Thundercracker_%28G1%29/toys

But back to the real discussion ;)

Chris

[TheLegGodt]

As interesting as this Hasbro Transformers vs Lego discussion is we are getting a bit off topic here IMO...

[whitswj]

/

Edited December 3, 2021 by whitswj

[kibosh]

Af far as the biggest threat to Lego in the long run, 3D printing. I guess lego could embrace this one. Picture this- you go to a Lego store where there is a kiosk where you design your own high quality piece in any color..... Or print out any exist piece you wanted.

Now THIS would be awesome....

[clm]

"How much for this 2x4 brick in this wild color?" "Thirty Seven Dollars" "....AWESOME!"

Chris

[Breakdown]

"How much for this 2x4 brick in this wild color?" "Thirty Seven Dollars" "....AWESOME!"

Chris

There's that and "You might want to wander over to the food court for 40 minutes while your pair of purple 4 X 2 bricks print.

[Captain Pirate Man]

I disagree. For every AFOL that might hit their own saturation level, a new AFOL enters our ranks, taking their place. The kids that do enjoy LEGO will eventually grow up, get jobs, and have their own disposable income. Once they do, they'll start buying up all the stuff their parents didn't buy them as kids. Isn't that what the majority of us have done? I bet most AFOLs will raise new AFOLs.

I can speak on this, I have spent every penny of my disposable income on legos over the past year. So yes as many of you reach your breaking point, someone new comes along, and I'm sure I'm raising future afols as well. Which I will reach my saturation point as well, but I'm only currently about 30 to 40% there. I still want a few more older castle and pirate sets, plus I need to up my overall brick collection. I just don't have enough bricks yet.

The problem is space in your home, you need to have adequate space in order to really go build more than one world. That's why I pretty much decided to mix castle and pirates into One world, and just give my castle guys muskets and cannons. I'm making a red vs blue world essentially.

I basically decided to give up on any sort of Lego city. Space in my house was a major reason, along with the fact it's so expensive to build proper skyscrapers (and I think the archetecht line sucks). But originally I wanted a pirate world, a castle world, and a city world. But I soon realized (due to the space requirements) that was just not plausible. So I basically have decided forget about any city type sets (even though many of them are beautiful, especially the city block type sets). I'm sure many of you have run into similar scenarios.

[LEGO Historian]

I'm going to put in my 2 cents here... and it's nothing profound or technical or historical about LEGO... it's just about something very elementary.... running out of space for your LEGO collection.

I have a good friend in the UK... his name is Chris Bull.... and he's a big time LEGO collector/addict. However... he started running out of space to store his LEGO... his wife was getting on his case... and as luck would have it, his mother-in-law had a nearly empty attic that he could use to store part of his vast collection. So that has helped him out tremendously, and gotten his wife off his back.

But that got me to thinking.... just look how many billions and billions of LEGO parts are produced in sets and as loose parts every year. Just look at how much of this is stored away, warehoused if you will in your own homes. Granted new people start coming into the hobby every year... but they too are going thru the motions of getting hooked, having sympathetic spouses (although I know of some divorces that included LEGO in the blame game).

But as those LEGO Modular sets gobble up more and more display space... and closets, basements and attics get fuller.... I have this uncanny feeling that at some point in the future... there will be a bubble. Now granted that'll make some of you very happy... oh boy cheap parts on the secondary market. But as I see more and more CMFs end up in curio cabinets on people's walls (being cranked out by the millions in China)... I wonder if new entrants into the LEGO market will continue to sustain the exuberant prices that some very common sets/parts in the last 10 years have been bid up to. There's 61 Cafe Corners and 58 Green Grocers for sale right now on Bricklink... can the good times continue on and on??

[Peppermint_M]

Oh, the speculative collectors market bubble might burst, like comic books did in the past. Or it could hold at a slightly lower, more sensible price, as with action figures.

I hope things do get more affordable on the secondary market.