mostlytechnic

After discussing with others, I'm going to switch for now. Doesn't mean I don't still suspect Davey, but... Unvote: Davey Osborne (Mencot) Vote: Allison Reynolds (jamesn) With that, we're now at: 2 for davey, 3 allison, 1 for me, and 2 unvoted. That's Bob and Lucy voting Davey, Mary Jane, Claire, and Brian voting Allison Davey voting for me Jeanie and Allison unvoted yet. Davey, you willing to take your wasted vote off of me and help expel Allison?

I said probably 2. 3 is a slim possibility, but I can't rule it out since we DO NOT KNOW how many we started with.

So we're now at 3 for davey, 2 allison, and 3 unvoted. I won't be around much for the rest of the day, but I WILL be back before the end of the day and can switch my vote if needed to seal a lynch. Davey, you're saying I'm acting scummy by being aggressive and "scum do that at the end of the game". Well, I started being aggressive several days ago. Adriano said I was acting scummy back then because I changed style so much. In this case, it's not because I'm scum. It's because I was brand new to mafia games and had little clue what was going on, plus we had NO solid info for the first several days. Once I got more comfortable with the academy and some actual information (investigations, voting history, etc) was available, I stepped it up. I think most of the class agrees I'm town, not scum, so I'm not worried about a lynch right now. I'm just going to keep aggressively hunting the last of the scum so we can have our school back free from the Mesas! Most of my opinion of people at this point is based on actions. There are several (Brian, Bob, Lucy, Claire) who's activities make them town in my mind. There are others (Davey, Allison) who are less clear. And Jeanie of course... cleared by the investigator, but not by actions, and since godfather is a possibility, I'm not solidly trusting her yet either. Since we know there's at least 1 scum left, probably 2, possibly 3, well, I gotta go with what I've seen. That makes Davey and Allison the most likely scum so I'll vote for either today. I'm sure the blocker will block the other tonight, so as long as we lynch one and block the other, I think there's little chance of a townie dying tonight.

Well, we're now at 2 davey and 2 allison - since we need 5 and they're not going to vote for themselves, this is likely to end in no-lynch. So anyone wanna make an argument for one over the other? I've made my position on both above, but I'm willing to vote either way.

So quiet today... no one has anything to say? Based on everything I've said earlier, I'm going to Vote: Davey Osborne (Mencot)

Alright, let's really drive some conversation today. Here's my personal read on everyone, with my estimations on town/scum. Chime in with your thoughts! 60% loyal Jeanie: Investigation said loyal, but that could be a godfather too. On day 5, Shawna had gotten the needed 8 votes and THEN Jeanie and chuckie jumped on with theirs. Seems suspicious. The only votes to come after them were Brian (I think he's proven himself with the blocker info) and Adriano. OTOH, Shawna repeatedly wanted to kill her off based on Adriano's info. 75% scum Davey: Been wavering on him for a while - there was nothing to really make me think solidly scummy, but nothing to make me think loyal either. I think this morning he got caught in Lucy's trap though! 90% loyal Lucy: I believe today's actions were just as she claims, a trap, and it made up my mind. It was well played and I think confirmed a scum. 50% Allison: Another I've wavered on. Been back and forth over and over. Her voting's been all over - Brian (before he started being the blocker's relay though), me, Jeanie twice, etc. Frequently changes votes during the day too. I just don't have a solid read on her. 90% loyal Bobby: My basis for this is basically one event. When Shawna was claiming serial killer, people were seriously considering believing her and letting her stay. Bobby came out VERY vigorously against that right away and said she HAD to go. That was not something a scum would have done. Lately he's been seeming more scummy though, but I think it's just a difference of opinion from me and being a newbie, rather than actually scum. 90% Loyal Brian: I think his reliable info from the blocker speaks for itself. 80% loyal Claire: Posted her defense earlier today. Basically she's been very vocal and helpful, although had bad info and that REALLY set her back in people's minds, definitely including me. She's redeemed herself in mine though. 100% Loyal Mary Jane: Myself, of course I know I'm town. And hopefully I've been helpful and trustworthy enough to prove it to everyone else too.

But you left off the important and relevant part: "the other of those choices will be scum, and Claire survived over night again, that would make her look really scummy. thinking all what she has "done" for town and the scum still lets her play, that is scummy." In your logic, since Adriano was killed and not claire, that meant claire HAD TO be scum. Not so at all. Helps, but it's not proof yet. There are plenty of "house rules" here that differ from how the "normal" games are played elsewhere. For example, we have 1 scum with kill ability until they're lynched/killed. That's not how most places do it. Etc.

For the record, the biggest "flaw" here in Lucy's "logic" is that nothing is specific to Claire. This whole thing could apply just as easily to Lucy, me, Davey, anyone for that matter. Bad logic here by a likely scum! Adriano was way more of a threat to the scum than claire - heck, not everyone even trusts claire. It was a no-brainer for them to hit Adriano last night. That says NOTHING about anyone else's loyalties. Way to try to jump on the trust the town had in Adriano by just duplicating his work. Since all you're doing though is posting public knowledge (and making errors in doing so!) it doesn't get you any points with me! Thanks for the info from the blocker. Not sure it proves that she's not a godfather though... anyone with more EB Mafia experience able to clarify? Would a block on the godfather show anything abnormal? I can't access any of the results I'm getting in google here at work :( I'm also suspicious of Jeanie, Allison, and Bobby not flipping their votes to finish Chuckie yesterday. However, Claire was the only post anyone made between me summarizing that we needed 1 more vote and the end of the day, so it's possible they just weren't around to change.

Fantastic Lucy, I'm glad to hear that. I called out you since you posted first. Your and Davey's logic both had major issues, so I'm glad to hear yours were intentional. I've been suspicious of Davey for a while - I'm very willing to vote D unless there's good reason not to. When he goes as scum I'll give you 100% credit for outing him!

Davey - you're missing in your summary that Claire switched votes at the end to Chuckie to seal the lynch. Gotta say, I'm smelling massive scum this morning. The way Lucy and Davey came in screaming that Claire's gotta go, in perfect unison, just seems like a desperate plea from a pair of scum hoping to survive. Also, Lucy, when I dramatically changed my style a number of days ago, I was called out on that looking scummy by Adriano and others. I'm doing the same to you - why are you suddenly coming out swinging hard at Claire when you've been so quiet for 8 days? I think that's scummy. Hide under the radar and now with only 1 or 2 scum left, try desperately to get bandwagons started against people. (and I think in this case Bobby is getting on that bandwagon....) Here's my main defense of Claire: 1. The others in her original group (andrew, cameron) proved to be loyal. The whole Simone fiasco was either a terrible misread of the investigation report or a frame. Either way, I don't see that she can be blamed for much there. She passed on info that was wrong, but that's not her fault. 2. Yesterday she sealed the lynch on Chuckie. We could EASILY have had another no-lynch day and that would have been good for the scum! Kept one of their own alive another day to vote again. Instead, she offed him. This late in the game I don't think the scum can afford sacrifices like that. Right now, I'm anxiously awaiting any night results. I'm also putting together my list of thoughts on each person left and I plan to share it with everyone when I'm done.

I just looked over the box and don't see anywhere Butch is shown with the smiley face - only the scowl. Anyone else know if the head's a misprint? I actually think it's right - the photo on Bricklink isn't by me and it shows the clean-shaven side too.

PM sent.

Yep, need 6 votes today. As of right now, we have (I did this quickly, so let me know if I made any errors!): Jeannie Bueller - 2 votes (Claire, Allison) Chuckie Miller - 5 votes (Lucy, Mary Jane, Brian, Davey, Adriano) Claire Standish - 3 votes (Chuckie, Bobby, Jeanie) That's everyone voted, and we don't have a majority. Anyone willing to switch to Chuckie to finish him?

Your past Mafia experience - Currently in the Mafia Academy - and I'm still alive on day 8! Your ability to focus on the game over the next 32 days - not a problem Will you be able to keep up with 20 hour NA deadlines? - sure, I'm on EB all the time Your favorite Mafia moment - Surviving longer than over half the Academy class so far! Tell me why you think Vanilla Townies are important or how they are most useful - Mislead the scum from who has power, be part of the voting block, talk to help root out the scum (6 steps in a Mafia application?) Give me your word that you'll participate in whatever crazy concoction I've doctored to avoid the meta-gaming. It will take everyone's cooperation and to operate on their honor. - Sure!

Is that what you're doing suggesting we vote for Chuckie? Or Claire? Deflecting suspicion from yourself?

Adriano - was your statement about Shawna being suspicious of Jeanie based on PMs or what? I re-read the first 3 days and can't find anything like that. Didn't see anywhere that shawna mentioned Jeanie. She did push for Bud and Riicky pretty smoothly though. Ok, I assume Adriano's statements that Shawna was suspicious of Jeanie and didn't want to kill chuckie were both based on PM conversations, since I can't find anything about either one in the day posts.

Jeanie's an experienced player? I was confused for a while about the whole "scum-kill ability gets passed on thing" but that's cause I've never played before. I asked about exactly that yesterday but Allison explained how it works here on EB games. We cleared this all up yesterday, so why is Jeanie commenting like this now, ESPECIALLY if she's an experienced player? Based on everything we've been told, I agree 100% with this conclusion. I think Claire is town, Simone was framed due to a mole, but the mole was someone Andrew or Cameron was talking to, so we have no way of knowing now unless someone knows who else they were talking to at the time. That's just Adriano's summary, not when she actually said anything. if I get a chance I'll look through the day threads and try to find some evidence - Adriano, do you know off-hand when she said anything about Chuckie? IIRC, Shawna wanted to target Jeanie EARLY on, before the investigator was known. IF (and that's a big if) Jeanie is godfather, then casting suspicion on her so that the investigator would investigate is a great strategy - you WANT the godfather to be investigated and "proven" loyal. If that's publicly known it's even better since then whatever they say is accepted by the townies as true. (If I can I'll try to look through the early days and find documentation on this too - until I or someone else finds some proof, I might be wrong on this since I can't swear the "shawna suspicious of jeanie" stuff was early)

In case my typo is a problem (actually, I just copied and pasted from someone above me and copied their error): Unvote: Chuckie Miller (-obelisk-) Vote: Chuckie Miller (-obelix-)

It's not officially available - I think it's coming out Apr 15 in the USA. I got it (the set I reviewed) when Walmart put them up for sale early.

Thanks for the update Claire, it's helpful. Given that, I'll slow down my suspicion of Allison for now. Of the 10 of us remaining, I think the scummiest is: Vote: Chuckie Miller ( -obelisk-)

No, neither this nor the toy story train included motorization instructions (heck, the TS train didn't even come with any track!) Neither is particularly easy to motorize - there's no room for easy mods to add all the stuff. By far the easiest would be to just build a new boxcar (or use the "jail car" on the Con set, taking out all the play features of it) with the battery, receiver, and motor and use that to power the train.

Lots to respond to here... 1. Yep, a mole wouldn't have to be claire even though she's the obvious. In fact, TOO obvious I think. She's not hiding anything if she's scummy. I think either someone talked, or something. 2. Nope, see my stats explanation above. HOWEVER, I still suspect someone talking to the "inside group" because the scum have been just TOO lucky. Kill the vig on day 1, well, that's lucky. But then frame the right person too? That's too much. 3. I think you're absolutely onto something here with allison *suggesting* simone be investigated. So far this sounds like the best explanation to me - Claire, Adriano, Allison, any more details on how everything went down exactly? But so far, I'm thinking that Allison either suggested or at least agreed and encouraged that simone was scummy to push them to investigate her and then told the rest of the mesas so they'd frame simone. 4. Jeanie is either town or godfather. Based on what you said there, I'm leaning town. At this point, I think Allison is likely scum. Claire probably town. That seems to fit the facts best.

Agree. He's been on my radar (and gotten my vote) and likely will again unless someone pops up scummier... Nope. Gotta be careful what you're calculating in stats. What you did (and what I did at first) is not "what are the odds of both targetting the same person" - it's "what are the odds of both targetting Simone". That's two very different questions. If we want to know the odds of both going after the same person - but don't care WHO that person is - then my second calculations are correct. You assume one has picked (since it doesn't matter who) and calc the odds of the other picking the same person. So that'd make it 1:15 to 1:20 odds. Actually, better odds than that, since Bud, Newton, Ricky, craig, and Wendy were all gone, there were 17 total. Assuming 5 scum, then it'd be 1:12 to 1:17 odds.

Yep, only a 5% chance or so, unless there was a spy passing info, in which case it'd be 100% :) huh? any reason for screaming at him?

For the record, I realized that I did very bad statistics there. It's not 1:300 odds of the investigator and framer picking the same person. It's 1:15 to 1:20 odds - not sure exactly how it works since Andrew and the framer would have had different numbers to pick from [given that the framer knows all the scum and wouldn't frame them] but you don't multiply the two. You just assume the framer is picking person X and then the odds of Andrew picking the same person would be around 1:20. So still unlikely, but way less unlikely than I thought at first.