Darth Punk Posted January 12, 2014 The key question in all of this is would the big box retailers, TRU, Walmart, Target, etc, want a further LotR line without a clear movie tie in? Star Wars doesn't count for comparison. Star Wars has been selling merchandise stand alone since 1978. They have deep retailer history. The same with Superheroes. Batman and Spider-Man have sold well stand alone for decades. (Also why we get mostly Batman and Spider-man Superhero sets. ) remember Lego does not sell directly to the public for the most part. Their lines are heavily influenced by what the big retailers want. The movie tie in is TABA. Though when the first wave of TLoR came out there was no movie out at all. And besides after a product has established it self retailers are going to look at how the lines have sold. That will play a bigger roll then some plug and play formula people seem to be using to determine when a line is released. If retailers were the only ones to sell Legos they might have a bigger influence. But anyone can buy directly from lego. Plus most retailers do not sell all of their lines let alone all of their sets. TLG produces what they want and retailers can choice what to put on their shelves. Not the other way around. As for stars wars it does count as a perfect comparison. Here is a line that has established itself and retailers have experience with just as they now have experience with two waves of both the hobbit and TLoR. Previous success counts for a great deal. Quality counts a great deal. The problem is you are trying to apply a one size fits all strategy to all the lines. That is not how TLG nor retailers operate. Every line is going to have a different marketing strategy, a different goal, etc. And while yes sets sell better when released before a movie comes out we are talking about two lines with a total of six movies on a subject matter that's been around longer than Star Wars. Either theses lines have sold well or not. No one here knows that. TLG,will ultimately decide the fate of TLoR line , if not already decided, based on a variety of factors only known to them. We can only guess. But TLG as all businesses do will make they decision not based on one factor and one factor alone. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ZCerberus Posted January 12, 2014 Hey guys, I had to snip the photos from that site out. Our policy is to never post pictures that are marked confidential, we can only provide links. Furthermore, we will remove the links if asked to do so by LEGO. While some of those images don't say confidential, it is only because they have been cropped so you can't see the words. On some of the other images, it is obvious they ARE marked confidential. Thank you. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Faefrost Posted January 12, 2014 The movie tie in is TABA. Though when the first wave of TLoR came out there was no movie out at all. And besides after a product has established it self retailers are going to look at how the lines have sold. That will play a bigger roll then some plug and play formula people seem to be using to determine when a line is released. If retailers were the only ones to sell Legos they might have a bigger influence. But anyone can buy directly from lego. Plus most retailers do not sell all of their lines let alone all of their sets. TLG produces what they want and retailers can choice what to put on their shelves. Not the other way around. As for stars wars it does count as a perfect comparison. Here is a line that has established itself and retailers have experience with just as they now have experience with two waves of both the hobbit and TLoR. Previous success counts for a great deal. Quality counts a great deal. The problem is you are trying to apply a one size fits all strategy to all the lines. That is not how TLG nor retailers operate. Every line is going to have a different marketing strategy, a different goal, etc. And while yes sets sell better when released before a movie comes out we are talking about two lines with a total of six movies on a subject matter that's been around longer than Star Wars. Either theses lines have sold well or not. No one here knows that. TLG,will ultimately decide the fate of TLoR line , if not already decided, based on a variety of factors only known to them. We can only guess. But TLG as all businesses do will make they decision not based on one factor and one factor alone. When the first LotR movie came out it was known that the "prequel" movies were looming. That is a much different retail environment than "no further materials forthcoming in book or film". Just look at how quickly Harry Potter disappeared. Lego chooses what to make based in part on a fairly heavy feedback system from their retailers. It is all part of the overall analysis and focus studies that goes into creating themes. They gauge what is selling to the street, the gauge what the retail chains are buying, they talk to the retailers regarding shelf space and allocation. Retailers do not simply take what Lego gives them. They have a great deal of control over quantities, shelf allocation, etc. and it is doubtful that Lego's direct consumer operations, S@H and branded Lego stores account for much more than maybe 15% of total sales. So yes the retailers opinions on these things count. Note the text in some of the retailer catalogs we have seen, how TLG is trying to sell the marketability of a given product line. As you say they base whether or not to continue things based on sales data. So do the retailers. And they are quite good at gauging the expected life cycle of a product. And honestly LotR could very easily go either way here. You say Star Wars is a valid comparison... Well yes, but not in the way we want. Star Wars has managed to keep a steady and succesful product line on toy store shelves since 1978. The toy sales funded the second and third movies. Star Wars shows what it looks like when a toy line jumps out if that "licensed tie in grove" and becomes an independent self supporting merchandise property. As I said above similar examples can be seen with Batman and Soiderman. I would add that a recent addition to that list is possibly Iron Man, who's toys have not left store shelves for about 6 or 7 years now, while other superheroes come and go with their movies, such as Thor, Superman, Green Lantern and the Hulk. And therein lies the problem. The Middle Earth stuff has traditionally sold in a pattern more akin to Thor or Superman. It spikes somewhat when the movie releases then ends up on the discount rack. The Lego stuff has been about the only exception outside the collectors market of high end action figures that never leave their plastic boxes. Notice how very little toy merchandise is out there for DoS? Without movies in production the suspicion is the only thing that Tolkien sells is books and the occasional wall calender. And this will be a hard impression to break. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Darth Punk Posted January 12, 2014 I agree with what you are saying, my point is that is just one part of a much larger equation. It's not as if TLG wasn't aware of any of this. They didn't become the second largest toy,company in the world for nothing. And frankly the decision could ultimately come down to TLG's commitment to finishing the line. It's not is if TLG,is,going to go under if they decide to,do so even if they were to lose money on it which I would highly doubt. Another factor could be contractual obligations. There could be quotas to meet or maybe they agreed to producing all three waves unless money was being lost. As for the whole movie tie-in TLG plans to release sets for the lego movie this summer. By your logic they shouldn't especially with a line that is untested. The idea that TLG couldn't release a LoTR wave on January 1st because there is no movie tie-in just doesn't make any sense given that the movie will only have been out less than a month. I really don't understand all of this hand wringing about why TLG cannot release the third wave. Either want one or you don't. TLG will ultimately do what is best for their company and their fate does not thankful rest on the fate of one factor. TLG does have a plan, both short term and long term and often times businesses have short term plans to help achieve long term goals. You know like pushing back the winter wave of Star Wars for the first time ever. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Alcarin Posted January 12, 2014 As others said, yes there are multiple pros and cons of ending or keeping the line, but if we look on HP/POTC its done...... I was truly expecting a 4 set wave to finish and atleast give us Balrog + Gondor stuff but unfortunately it seems like its gone. Its kinda funny that a Pirate Ship Ambush is here though lol.... now I might buy it to keep it MINT for ages to come. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SirBlake Posted January 12, 2014 Its kinda funny that a Pirate Ship Ambush is here though lol.... I fail to see the humor in it. Stupid pirate ship that nobody wanted. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SirBlake Posted January 12, 2014 Sarcasm ;) I figured. Just bitter, lol. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Robert_88 Posted January 12, 2014 (edited) I am frustrated as well. Not knowing if we will get a third wave is annoying (especially when I think about the sets and characters that we are still missing) No Gondorian Soldiers and sets, Witch King, Galadriel, Balrog, Fell Beast,... Sounds like a bad joke! Edited January 12, 2014 by Robert_88 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Shroffy123 Posted January 12, 2014 I am sure there will be a third wave. People are just being negative. No news is good news, so absent an official statement that the line is ending, I'm holding on hope. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Faefrost Posted January 12, 2014 I am sure there will be a third wave. People are just being negative. No news is good news, so absent an official statement that the line is ending, I'm holding on hope. Have we ever gotten an official statement that a line is ending? None for PotC, none for PoP, LR, Avatar, Speed Racer. The only time we might have gotten any sort of official statement was regarding Harry Potter, and that was simply due to the unexpected extra movie meaning Lego still had product out on the shelves when the end/renewal date of the license arrived. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Deathleech Posted January 12, 2014 You do realize that the reason Lego has grown to become the second largest toymaker in the world is specifically because they have grown and adapted, right? You do realize that "sticking to the formula they know" hasn't been done in ages, hence all of the changes we've seen that I've pointed out, right? Yeah, sure, they MIGHT change from their tried and true formula of yellow minifigures and give us fleshies - oh wait, they DID deviate from the formula! That's my entire point - Lego has constantly been evolving and adapting since their near-bankruptcy a few short years ago. They did NOT come out of bankruptcy to become the 2nd largest toy maker by sticking to the formula they knew. Yes I realize that, but do you realize NOTHING about the Hobbit or LotR line has been different from a standard license release? We aren't talking Simpsons here with only one big D2C set, a CMF series, and a tv show tie in. We are talking a standard wave. Sure Lego could deviate from their formula, and of course they have. No company can do the exact same thing for decades and stay current or in business. But at the same time that doesn't mean throwing away things they know that work just for the lulz. With most of their licenses Lego ends them RIGHT after the final movie is released (Harry Potter, PotC, Indiana Jones). What exactly is there indicating them doing ANYTHING different with the Hobbit? In fact we know the Hobbit concludes in 2014, the advertisement even says so. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Faefrost Posted January 12, 2014 Ugh! The one remaining hope I had regarding any continuation of this line was that I haven't been able to think of anything out there within the general niche that TLG might replace it with? TLG has done quite well over the past decade with sets sitting in that sort of junction of literary fantasy and movies. Middle Earth slid right into that same place occupied by Harry Potter. But there just isn't anything else waiting in the wings? Is there? I mean assuming the main requirements, a succesful broad audience family friendly fantasy movie franchise that appeals to both kids and AFOLs and ties in well with things that work in Lego? Having some sort of book tie in is a bonus. What else could be out there for them to take a stab at? And then I saw Inconspicuous's delightful little MOC. http://www.eurobricks.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=90516 Oh dear. If TLG somehow landed that license then yeah, that would do the trick business model wise. My only consolation is I think we would have heard leaks about it if they had. (And their deep dealings with Disney may discourage them from getting involved with Dreamworks.) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Deathleech Posted January 12, 2014 (edited) I doubt Lego would ever get the How to Train Your Dragon license. That movie is made by Dreamworks who is in direct competition with Dinsey's CGI department. And guess who Lego has TONS of licenses with? Not Dreamworks. Has Lego ever even picked up a Dreamworks license before? I can't recall ANY... Edited January 12, 2014 by Deathleech Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wesker Posted January 12, 2014 Yes I realize that, but do you realize NOTHING about the Hobbit or LotR line has been different from a standard license release? We aren't talking Simpsons here with only one big D2C set, a CMF series, and a tv show tie in. We are talking a standard wave. Sure Lego could deviate from their formula, and of course they have. No company can do the exact same thing for decades and stay current or in business. But at the same time that doesn't mean throwing away things they know that work just for the lulz. With most of their licenses Lego ends them RIGHT after the final movie is released (Harry Potter, PotC, Indiana Jones). What exactly is there indicating them doing ANYTHING different with the Hobbit? In fact we know the Hobbit concludes in 2014, the advertisement even says so. Actually Indiana Jones did get two additional small waves after the movie was released. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Faefrost Posted January 12, 2014 (edited) I doubt Lego would ever get the How to Train Your Dragon license. That movie is made by Dreamworks who is in direct competition with Dinsey's CGI department. And guess who Lego has TONS of licenses with? Not Dreamworks. Has Lego ever even picked up a Dreamworks license before? I can't recall ANY... To be fair, outside of Spin-Masters How to Train Your Dragon toy lines I can't even think of any Dreamworks movies that any major toy producer has licensed? or succeeded with? But anyway all of this is pure speculation on my part. I was trying to think what a viable replacement path for the Middle Earth lines would be, at that one struck me with its combination of named characters, dragons, vikings, ships, and period buildings. Plus lots of catapults and shooty things. We'll see. Hopefully they do sneak in one more wave. Edited January 12, 2014 by Faefrost Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kevkipo Posted January 13, 2014 To be fair, outside of Spin-Masters How to Train Your Dragon toy lines I can't even think of any Dreamworks movies that any major toy producer has licensed? or succeeded with? But anyway all of this is pure speculation on my part. I was trying to think what a viable replacement path for the Middle Earth lines would be, at that one struck me with its combination of named characters, dragons, vikings, ships, and period buildings. Plus lots of catapults and shooty things. We'll see. Hopefully they do sneak in one more wave. HTTYD would be great :D but i doubt they will make it! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Darth Punk Posted January 13, 2014 To be fair, outside of Spin-Masters How to Train Your Dragon toy lines I can't even think of any Dreamworks movies that any major toy producer has licensed? or succeeded with? But anyway all of this is pure speculation on my part. I was trying to think what a viable replacement path for the Middle Earth lines would be, at that one struck me with its combination of named characters, dragons, vikings, ships, and period buildings. Plus lots of catapults and shooty things. We'll see. Hopefully they do sneak in one more wave. Vikings would be very cool. It's been about eight years since last wave. Lake town has a viking vibe to it and maybe TLG is using it to test the waters. Perhaps some more Vikings vs dragon battles with the dragons along the lines of the Smaug we (hope to) get. The other obvious choice is pirates, especially seeing metal beard in the lego movie. As much as I love pirates I'm less excited by this,option. But either way I agree that TLG is going to definitely need something to fill a giant hole in its fantasy line. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Proximo Posted January 13, 2014 (edited) Have we ever gotten an official statement that a line is ending? None for PotC, none for PoP, LR, Avatar, Speed Racer. The only time we might have gotten any sort of official statement was regarding Harry Potter, and that was simply due to the unexpected extra movie meaning Lego still had product out on the shelves when the end/renewal date of the license arrived. That's exactly my point. I don't get what the no-official-statement-means-more-sets-guys do expect here. Should there be an announcement on the lego-website? Or should lego post a video on youtube? Is the absence of new sets in the retailer catalogue not official enough? For me it is. Edited January 13, 2014 by Proximo Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
qiadris Posted January 13, 2014 What would be great is if/when LotR is discontinued, all the efforts that go into it would go to Castle. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Alcarin Posted January 13, 2014 What would be great is if/when LotR is discontinued, all the efforts that go into it would go to Castle. not really ... but thats just my opinion ofcourse. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mutant Orc Posted January 13, 2014 (edited) Thanks my friend! Couldn't this be something like a Smaug head? You're welcome. It is a bit small though for Smaug. Maybe a red hero-factory Kaiju head piece could be used, that could be printed nicely and would be big enough to eat someone. the only problem would be lack of teeth. Hey guys, I had to snip the photos from that site out. Our policy is to never post pictures that are marked confidential, we can only provide links. Furthermore, we will remove the links if asked to do so by LEGO. While some of those images don't say confidential, it is only because they have been cropped so you can't see the words. On some of the other images, it is obvious they ARE marked confidential. Thank you. Ah, was that me? I think it was, sorry about that. Edited January 13, 2014 by Mutant Orc Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Darth Punk Posted January 13, 2014 What would be great is if/when LotR is discontinued, all the efforts that go into it would go to Castle. Nope. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Robert_88 Posted January 13, 2014 I'm pretty sure the second wave isn't the planned end of the LotR theme. I got my fist Hobbit set today (Mirkwood Spiders) and the advertisement says "The Quest of the Fellowship Continues in 2013". The last Hobbit wave is announced as "the journey concludes". This doesn't mean that we will get more sets but I'm sure they planned more sets. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Nagyzee Posted January 13, 2014 I'm pretty sure the second wave isn't the planned end of the LotR theme. I got my fist Hobbit set today (Mirkwood Spiders) and the advertisement says "The Quest of the Fellowship Continues in 2013". The last Hobbit wave is announced as "the journey concludes". This doesn't mean that we will get more sets but I'm sure they planned more sets. Mirkwood spiders was released in 2012 December, before the 2nd wave of LOTR. The quest of the fellowship did indeed continue in 2013. But apparently it won't in 2014. There's only a fool's hope left for a 3rd LOTR wave now. :( Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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