Excalibur 2.0: Day Six

[Waterbrick Down]

Pardon?

I preparing my speech before you thank you for your suspicions, but the point remains that they were more like a summery. If you're going to go against York then you go grab the quotes from the past days, and bring a case. Though you're attempt at appearing to be in the dark is noted and is to be expected. Please note that this isn't an either or question, we aren't saying that one of you is the killer and one is therefor a townie, there is a good chance that you are both scum, but we can be sure that one of you possesses the killer's PR.

[swils]

I figured you were, but just felt like being quick.

I -did- grab a quote, it is in fact quoted right there in my post. It's the fancy box. It's not quoted, but that's because I didn't prepare my speech on the forums, and thus couldn't multiquote (I still can't quite get the hang of pulling a quote out of a locked thread ). Like I said, there's the chance that York was cleared and I'm just not in the know. If so, why not tell me as much? It would certainly prevent wasting further effort on him. And if I really need to go and pull more quotes to build a case... York was on the chopping block right up until the stump's revelation. It was Burbank or York. Then it was York. Then it was Gordon via near-divine intervention. Then York just got cocky and annoying and no one has bothered him since (and that's what makes me suspect I might be 100% wrong and that she got cleared). But if you are really trying to suggest that there isn't already a case against York (in so much as the public has information), then... /shrug.

It was indeed a summary, but it was a summary with my own thoughts attached. See, if I'd just said that I thought Jones(Masked) was suspicious, you'd have asked me for examples. Instead, I gave an example--his distinctly brief dismissal of the suspicions raised against you.

Also, my attempt to appear as though I'm being kept in the dark? I am being kept in the dark. I've spoken with fhomess in private, and did raise the point that, without information from the inner circle, I feel less than useful. He basically told me that there's plenty of people under suspicion, myself included, and that I would remain in the dark, but shouldn't count on the town PR's to do my work for me. You know how that feels, you said so yourself just yesterday. Want me to grab that quote?

Added as double post:

I said fhomess instead of Wilder

[Fugazi]

Taking into account the Investigator's night results as well as those of the Town Blocker (Tammo), combined with my cross-referencing system, it has been determined that only 2 suspects remain as far as the scum's killer PR is concerned, those two suspects I now offer to you: Lieutenant Hornby (Shadows) and Ensign Williams (Swils).

What is there to comment on? You're presenting us with two candidates, without giving a single shred of evidence as to how you (collective you) have reached this conclusion. I'm not aware of any investigation results, I only have a limited knowledge of the blocker's results, and I'm still waiting for the conclusions of your cross-referencing system. So why don't you show us your evidence instead of making us beg for information? You're criticising others for summarising instead of bringing a case, yet it's exactly what you're doing.

You want to know my theory? There's a mole within the town core, either a scum PR that has gone uncontested because the equivalent town role is long dead, or as a result of a conversion. Remember that Gordon was a role cop, so scum were perfectly aware of who they were killing. The mole theory would explain nicely why Rockford was protected the very night he was targeted by the vigilante, or why the same vig has gone unhindered every other night when he was targeting townies instead.

My theory and yours are not exclusive. I can't point fingers at anyone since I'm not sure who is part of this insider circle. The only townies who have proven their worth to me are those who have brought us results, and they are dead now: Falcon and McAndrews. I would add Wilder to the list, as a Vig role is almost impossible to fake while there's another killer alive. Besides, he did target scum once even though his action was unsuccessful.

[Bob]

You may now vote.

[Capt.JohnPaul]

I hope we haven’t all forgotten that, up until Burbank got lynched and Gordon was rootraped by the all-telling stump, York was really digging a hole for himself? I haven’t. Granted, she’s been getting on my nerves, but I promise this is about more than just shutting her up! Maybe she has been investigated and cleared since then, and I’m just dead wrong again. But I still definitely have my suspicions.

Aaaand.. deep breath. Okay. Now, without stringing me up by my neck, let’s hear your thoughts!

I'm so scummy because I wanted the accused to defend themselves? If I'm scum for not jumping on bandwagons, then so are people like Fugazi and Shadows, which you mentioned yourself.

[Shadows]

Sheesh everybody seems so content on saying that they have theories and then saying they don't want to present them because they are afraid of being knocked off.

Nice straw man argument. I, for one, have no fear of being knocked off for presenting a theory, I've just been waiting for the right person to make the first move. Tag, you're it.

Well if you're a vanilla townie then present those theories and get knocked off for the good of your town instead of cowering in the corner.

Perhaps you should return to your corner, since I don't think you're a townie at all.

Well what remains of the town block has been considering all of the possibilities and we think we've come to at least something of a decision we'd like the rest of you to comment on.

We, eh? You might be surprised what the remaining members of the town block actually think, and more importantly, what they know. You might also be surprised what the dead members thought before they died. It wasn't very highly of you, I'll tell you that much.

First things first, allow me to set the stage. Currently the scum are aware of the identities of the vigilante and our investigator (yes they still exist)

The vigilante presented himself to everyone, so that isn't much of a revelation. The investigator, on the other hand, claims to have replaced the former one upon his death. It's entirely possible, but unproven so far. Might help if he'd ever gotten a scum result we could test, but so far all of his results have been town. Not damning, certainly, just not helpful. still, it's better than nothing unless we find out it isn't true. One good way of doing that is lynching you.

and they did know that of our role-blocker and at least of the current existance of the protector.

Indeed, any why do they know? Because you idiots couldn't keep your mouths shut and trusted the wrong people, like Scumba. Well, I shouldn't say you idiots, since I think you're the person they shouldn't have been talking to. You, as McAndrews pointed out before his death, were one of only two remaining people who knew that Rockford was being targeted the night the scum protected him, setting us back another day. The other was our potential investigator. If you turn out to be town, he's scum. If you turn out to be scum, he may be as well. Since you're worthless, I'd rather test that theory on you first, it would be a shame to lose our investigator, again, if that's what he is. I know exactly how we'll test that tonight, after you're dead, so no worries there.

That all being said we have 3 concrete Town PR's that are among us and to my knowledge not one of them has yet been disputed.

It's true. Three. Our vig who is open about his identity, our investigator who is still in need of confirmation, and our protector.

it has been determined that only 2 suspects remain as far as the scum's killer PR is concerned, those two suspects I now offer to you: Lieutenant Hornby (Shadows) and Ensign Williams (Swils).

Really? Let's see, 11 people left, any town investigation result could be the godfather, so aside from taking out the three PRs based on hoping that they're true, that still leaves a lot more than 2 people, doesn't it? So why me? I have to ask because you've presented nothing in the way of evidence, yet I also know that you've tried to have the vig kill me previously. He knew better, but he wasn't going to tell you.

Sit down, junior, your game is over. Who the megabluck do you think the town protector is?

Oh, and don't worry about me, for where I come, a protector can take care of himself at night. I've been pushing the cowardly scum to come get me day after day, pushing every button I could to try to trigger their egos into defending their pathetic manhood, and so far, nothing but cowardice (well, Rockford did call me rude :laugh). I've been the Czar of megablocks and nothing. NOTHING. What does that tell me? They know what they'll face and they aren't going to risk it, instead, they'll take the easy way out and try to get me lynched (since their attempt to get the vig to kill me failed). Someone told them the full extent of my role, because hey, this town can't keep it's damn collective mouth shut, we already know that. What the scum have forgotten is that I'm not afraid of them, I don't have to be.

You signed your death warrant, scum.

Vote: Ensign Robert Holloway, engineer (Waterbrick Down)

[Dragonator]

Yeah I can agree with you, Lieutenant Hornby. Ensign Holloway has been more and more blatant in his obvious underlying motives, and the evidence gathered from his interactions in private is very telling. I for one feel more than happy about voting him out.

Vote: Ensign Robert Holloway, engineer (Waterbrick Down)

[Masked Builder]

I disagree, while the investigator may have gotten only town results so far, that is no reason to believe that they are a scum just lying to protect their team. Personally, I trust Holloway, there are a few other members I am suspicious of.

[Shadows]

I disagree, while the investigator may have gotten only town results so far, that is no reason to believe that they are a scum just lying to protect their team. Personally, I trust Holloway, there are a few other members I am suspicious of.

Interesting. I don't recall saying that only getting town results means the investigator is scum, just that it was unfortunate. As a matter of fact, I believe I made it clear that it only meant that they couldn't be completely verified yet and I also made it clear that they were potentially too important to take a risk killing. Did you actually read what I said before the knee-jerk reaction?

I'm well aware of your suspicions, you suspect one person the investigator claims is town and not another. It's a little confusing and completely impossible to justify. What isn't impossibly to justify is that the investigator and Holloway are the only two people who knew the vig's target the night he was blocked, so one or the other is scum. Would you prefer we target the investigator today? I think that would be incredibly foolish.

[Masked Builder]

Interesting. I don't recall saying that only getting town results means the investigator is scum, just that it was unfortunate. As a matter of fact, I believe I made it clear that it only meant that they couldn't be completely verified yet and I also made it clear that they were potentially too important to take a risk killing. Did you actually read what I said before the knee-jerk reaction?

I'm well aware of your suspicions, you suspect one person the investigator claims is town and not another. It's a little confusing and completely impossible to justify. What isn't impossibly to justify is that the investigator and Holloway are the only two people who knew the vig's target the night he was blocked, so one or the other is scum. Would you prefer we target the investigator today? I think that would be incredibly foolish.

Well, I guess I see what you're saying there.

[Waterbrick Down]

Hah, well I've been waiting for this very moment and I'm glad you finally came out all guns blazing. It just so happens that our vig knows the identitiy of the protector and now that you've put your name out there I'm sure we can at least get confirmation from him. Investigation results are not everything my good man, process of elimination is also a handy tool. So let me lay it out for you. As the scum already know the name of the Investigator, unfortunately told them by Tammo through Scuba on day 3 it won't hurt to let you know that Masked Builder is our Investigator, who has cleared 2 people, granted one of them is possibly the god-father, but I'm willing for the time-being to assume that the God-father does not have the killing role as the evidence from Brickdoctor and I'm sure Inconspicuous could verify. Of those remaining we have (pardon my use of everyone's nick names):

fhomess, claimed vigilante: No one has argued against this point yet, so we do not have any valid reason to disbelieve her.

Masked Builder, claimed investigator: Again, No one has argued this point and he has claimed the role since day 3.

Myself: Cleared

CJP: Cleared

Awesomestar: Cleared

Dragonator: Cleared

Those above have been cleared by investigation, and my cross-referencing method which I explained day 4.

Rufus, Fugazi, Darkdragon, and Inconspicuous were all role-blocked by Tammo our town blocker, and as we have had a death every night excluding night 4 when fhomess was saved, none of them are the scum killer.

The only ones remaining are: Yourself (Shadows) and Swils.

Scuba claimed role-cop, darkdragon was not the killer given Tammo's blocking record and thus the simplest solution is either you, Shadows, or Swils are the scum killer.

As I'm occupied at the engineering deck currently, I'm unable to grab all of the quotes past day's material, but will do so shortly, as regard why else I believe you are scummy, most noticably Darkdragon's bus at the end of yesterday and your denial of York's failed sting-operation. This however can simply be relegated to negligable should our Vig, fhomess, confirm your protector status. If that is the case then quite simply the logical choice, free of the most "what-if's" and assumptions would be that Swils is the scum killer, via process of elimination.

Happy now.

[swils]

Happy now.

Actually, sort of. I went to bed ready to wake up and say "So basically your accusation against me is 'Based on a bunch of information (which I'm not going to share), I think you two are the killers.", but now you just went and shot a hole straight through that. You'll really have to forgive me, but I need to get back to the engineering bay for the day. Try not to have too much fun 'til my duties are done for the day?

And, quickly,

I'm so scummy because I wanted the accused to defend themselves? If I'm scum for not jumping on bandwagons, then so are people like Fugazi and Shadows, which you mentioned yourself.

When "the accused" is someone that the town core is all giggling to themselves about, and all seem to believe to be a solid lead, then yes, it is rather scummy to be trying to get that name out in the open early so that they can defend themselves. Hornby and (Fugazi) didn't try to find out the name of the supposed-surefire-scum.

[fhomess]

Note that those on Holloway (WBD)'s cleared list are a combination of folks who have been cleared by investigation and those who've been cleared by Holloway's post analysis method.

Here are those that knew that Rockford was the vig target the night he did not die (Night 4), with the only new identity that I don't believe the scum already had being Hornby's protector claim. I think it's safe to assume that one of us four is scum given that Rockford survived the night.

Myself - Vig - I admit it's possible I'm scum, but then all the other kills that have happened would have to be an SK. At this point, if one of the killers is an SK, then they're as good as scum as they clearly have made no effort to help the town. There can be no vig if I'm scum, as that person would have claimed to someone by now and we would've been able to validate their and my claim. If I was scum, it's likely that at least one of the SK or scum kills would have gone through on night 4. I am not scum or an SK.

Holloway (WBD) - Vanilla - Holloway and I began discussion towards the end of Day 4. Since then, much of our discussion has circled around his post analysis method and what it represented. Yesterday I presented a case against him based on my reading of the Night 4 results. McAndrews (Tammo) came up with his alternate case after I presented mine and it indeed looked more likely. That doesn't rule out my case.

Jones (MB) - Investigator - The claim here is that Jones inherited the investigator role on Night 3, which is the night I killed Wright (CMP) based on Gordon's lies. Gordon knew of this claim prior to being stumped and then lynched, so the scum have known of this information since then.

Hornby (Shadows) - Protector - The claim here came to me after I claimed Vig publicly. There are scenarios in which I believe Hornby could have manipulated the results of night 4, but I wouldn't see the point of it. To me, Hornby is likely town based on that. I had not shared his identity with the others on this list, but now that he's outed himself, there's no point to hide it anymore. I confess that Hornby was highly suspicious to me prior to that night.

I think it's reasonable to lynch one of these four. McAndrews (Tammo) felt that if last night's investigation result came back as town on Holloway, then we ought to lynch Jones. It did. Hornby rightly points out that lynching Jones is more risky for town. I tend to agree with both of those assessments, so I'm open to either.

[Waterbrick Down]

Alright, I'll say it outright that I think the scum got lucky during night 4, as most of us know. Burbank claimed only 5 scum existed, based upon the situation. Due to Gordon's lynch, only 4 would have existed during night 4. The scum's protector would have protected one of their own, as of this moment I see no reason why they would have done otherwise, giving them a 1/4 chance of saving one of them from the vigilante, I don't think these are terrible odds and I know at least one person has agreed with me on this fact. My point is now is not the time to root out a supposed mole, they will only be able to hide so long before their web of deceit catches up with them. What we should be doing is going after those are scum by logical process of elimination not a supposition of a fact. From the way I see it, I agree with Wilder in that there it seems extremely unlikely that the scum would have tried to kill her, and then have their protector (Shadows) save her in order to gain the town's trust. At that point the scum already knew, the town-role blocker's identity, that of the vig, and the investigator thus nothing was to be gained by such a scheme as going without a night kill. If Masked is scum or even neutral I see no reason on why he would would declare me cleared, if you haven't caught on yet I was last nights investigation target and came out town, I'm a vanilla so labeling me as scum would have been the easiest thing in the world. Bam! Kill Tammo last night, lynch me today, and have the vig killed tomorrow and no one would ever be the wiser as to Masked's false role-claim. Additionally I see no reason why Scuba would have lied about his role-cop status and 2 scum or even 1 plus a neutral role-cop seems a little overkill on the scum's side. Finally since I'm not going to call myself scum, that takes care of dismissing each of us as the mole. Like I said at the beginning we should go with the logical guess rather than the supposed, sorry fhomess but I think we need to take care of obvious external scum first before we look for supposed ones within our own ranks.

Now that we've gotton all the claims in we have:

fhomess: Vig

Masked: Investigator

Shadows: Protector

Me: Cleared

Dragonator: Cleared

Capt.JohnPaul: Cleared

AwesomeStar: Cleared

Rufus, Inconspicuous, Fugazi, DarkDragon were all blocked at one point or another by Tammo and thus were not the scum killer and Scuba claimed role-cop so that puts him out.

The only person left remaining is Ensign Williams (Swils).

[Rufus]

McAndrews (Tammo) felt that if last night's investigation result came back as town on Holloway, then we ought to lynch Jones.

I don't quite see the logic in this. If the implication is that you (or, at least, McAndrews) were sure that Holloway is scum, and therefore Jones must be lying, then surely the way to test this would be to lynch Holloway.

As I said yesterday, my read on Holloway based on his posts in the day threads and his trawl through the previous days is that it is consistent with the behaviour of a vanilla townie. Not being privy to the moves he has made privately, I can't comment on whether they are suspicious or not; I believe there may be flaws in his analysis (he said himself it was subjective). My read may or may not be correct; either way, I wouldn't be inclined to trust automatically anyone he has 'cleared' whether he is scum or town.

As for the investigator, I'm suspicious of investigator claims where the action has seemingly appeared mid-way through the game. I think this is worth discussing. If the role appeared in order to balance the game after Wright's death, it brings back into question the whole 'neutral role cop' thing, and whether the game would become balanced by introducing an apparently town-aligned investigator. I'd like to hear more from Jones about his role.

Then there's this protector business.

Hornby (Shadows) - Protector - The claim here came to me after I claimed Vig publicly. There are scenarios in which I believe Hornby could have manipulated the results of night 4, but I wouldn't see the point of it. To me, Hornby is likely town based on that.

I'm not so sure. The lack of scum kill on night 4 has been widely assumed to have occurred because the scum tried to kill the vig, but were foiled by the town protector. I'm still puzzled as to why the scum made that mistake. Even if they had heard that the protector was targeting someone else, it's still a gamble, and they'd have known that. Why not kill the protector, or the town blocker, or anyone else? It's a sloppy and amateurish scum mistake.

But I don't think that's what happened at all - I don't think the scum targeted the vig. I think that's what we were meant to assume (I actually think there was a conversion). If we let go of the assumption that the vig was targeted night 4, then there is nothing to suggest that there is a town protector at all.

And when looking for confirmation of this, it's always best to look in the most unlikely of places:

Perhaps he can also speculate on why the scum haven't tried to kill him after he foolishly exposed himself as the vig (and we know they haven't because we've seen them kill someone else every night since then).

The bracketed part of this statement is blatantly untrue, but the bolded part is very telling, and immediately discredits Hornby's town protector claim. Scum protector? Quite likely.

Vote: Thomas Hornby (Shadows)

[Fugazi]

The only person left remaining is Ensign Williams (Swils).

Your theory is appealing, but before I cast a vote I would appreciate some answers to what appears to me like missing elements in this puzzle.

Me: Cleared

Dragonator: Cleared

Capt.JohnPaul: Cleared

AwesomeStar: Cleared

Which of them have been cleared by investigation, and which as a result of your analysis? And did you ever mention how you cleared the others by deduction? You could be right, but I'm not inclined to believe only your word without further explanations.

Jones (MB) - Investigator - The claim here is that Jones inherited the investigator role on Night 3, which is the night I killed Wright (CMP) based on Gordon's lies. Gordon knew of this claim prior to being stumped and then lynched, so the scum have known of this information since then.

Wait, what? Was this mentioned before? This is pretty weird, in my opinion. Did Jones specifically mention that he inherited the role from Wright? Assuming that roles can be passed on after death in this game, why would a Neutral Cop looking to join the scum pass on his role and give rise to a Town Cop? Oh, it's possible that we have lost our investigator early on in this game, and I'm not even surprised knowing that scum had a Role Cop. And it nicely explains why our dear stump has had a parting shot at scum from beyond the grave, in the form of a one-shot investigation. But why give us a one-shot investigation if the Town Cop role was still with us? No, I'm not sure that we still have a real investigator. The claim that Jones inherited his role on Night 3 is fishy. Which doesn't mean that his night results are false -- scum don't need a real investigator to know who's who.

By the way, do we actually know for sure that Wright was a Cop himself? Did he ever share his night results with anyone?

[Capt.JohnPaul]

I believe that theory is logical and true. Besides, Hornby blew my sting instantly. (I know, I know, you'll say "it never would've worked anyway. ") At least give it a shot.

Vote: Thomas Hornby (Shadows)

[AwesomeStar]

Your theory is appealing, but before I cast a vote I would appreciate some answers to what appears to me like missing elements in this puzzle.

Which of them have been cleared by investigation, and which as a result of your analysis? And did you ever mention how you cleared the others by deduction? You could be right, but I'm not inclined to believe only your word without further explanations.

I also want an answer to this. Personally I can't see how Dragonator and CJP have managed to escape all suspicion so far in the past two days, and I'm struggling to see what method you used to clear them.

[Fugazi]

As for the investigator, I'm suspicious of investigator claims where the action has seemingly appeared mid-way through the game. I think this is worth discussing. If the role appeared in order to balance the game after Wright's death, it brings back into question the whole 'neutral role cop' thing, and whether the game would become balanced by introducing an apparently town-aligned investigator. I'd like to hear more from Jones about his role.

I realise that I have been repeating your concerns, only less succinctly. Nonetheless, the question stands.

But I don't think that's what happened at all - I don't think the scum targeted the vig. I think that's what we were meant to assume (I actually think there was a conversion). If we let go of the assumption that the vig was targeted night 4, then there is nothing to suggest that there is a town protector at all.

That does support the theory of a mole among the trusted townies. If there has been a conversion, the scum more than likely have targeted someone in a leadership position in the town core.

Scum protector? Quite likely.

Um, why do you think so? Scum protector is an unlikely role (I know something about it! ) and would probably only be balanced by a Serial Killer or a Bomb on the ship?

[Capt.JohnPaul]

Um, why do you think so? Scum protector is an unlikely role (I know something about it! ) and would probably only be balanced by a Serial Killer or a Bomb on the ship?

There is a bomb. Didn't we learn that in the simulation?

[Fugazi]

There is a bomb. Didn't we learn that in the simulation?

I missed that bit. Was there one?

[Waterbrick Down]

Your theory is appealing, but before I cast a vote I would appreciate some answers to what appears to me like missing elements in this puzzle.

Which of them have been cleared by investigation, and which as a result of your analysis? And did you ever mention how you cleared the others by deduction? You could be right, but I'm not inclined to believe only your word without further explanations.

Yes, I explained this in day 4, I'll leave it up to fhomess as to whether to reveal who was cleared by investigation and who was cleared by my method, but if you really think about it hard I'm sure you could figure it out.

Wait, what? Was this mentioned before? This is pretty weird, in my opinion. Did Jones specifically mention that he inherited the role from Wright? Assuming that roles can be passed on after death in this game, why would a Neutral Cop looking to join the scum pass on his role and give rise to a Town Cop? Oh, it's possible that we have lost our investigator early on in this game, and I'm not even surprised knowing that scum had a Role Cop. And it nicely explains why our dear stump has had a parting shot at scum from beyond the grave, in the form of a one-shot investigation. But why give us a one-shot investigation if the Town Cop role was still with us? No, I'm not sure that we still have a real investigator. The claim that Jones inherited his role on Night 3 is fishy. Which doesn't mean that his night results are false -- scum don't need a real investigator to know who's who.

By the way, do we actually know for sure that Wright was a Cop himself? Did he ever share his night results with anyone?

The only person that said Wright was a neutral cop was Gordon during Day 4. Wilder is the only member left of the original town block and could verify this. Jones has not claimed to have inherrited Wright's role, only an investigation role, but he can state otherwise if he wishes to do so. The stump was a vengeful and I doubt one that was brought in mid-game in order to add balance. From what we know of the simulation, the scum did not have a role-cop and thus a neutral was provided that could side with them. This time round, we know of at least one scum who claimed role-blocker, thus I don't think a townie inherriting an investigation would be to hard to follow, but I'll go investigate the past day threads and make sure.

[Capt.JohnPaul]

I missed that bit. Was there one?

Yes.

Now that we mention a mole in the trusted town block. I'm not in that block. I haven't spoken a word to Hornby, so if there's a mole, it's not me. But it appears Hornby is on the "trusted" list. That supports him as a suspect.

[Fugazi]

The stump was a vengeful and I doubt one that was brought in mid-game in order to add balance.

I'm sorry to contradict, but a Vengeful is a killer not an investigator, check the library. It could have been a planned balance act from the start, but a planned role I doubt very much. Why would the Admiral give a dead crew member an extra investigation if there's already a mechanism to return the Cop role to us? The simplest explanation by far is that is was a compensation for the death of our Cop.

To add to this, our beloved stump appeared immediately after I declared stump myself. Check the records! How planned was that!

[Bob]

Vote Tally:

Ensign Holloway / Waterbrick Down: 2 (Shadows, Dragonator)

Ensign Williams / swils: 1 (Waterbrick Down)

Lieutenant Hornby / Shadows : 2 (Rufus, Capt.JohnPaul)