24: Mafia - Hour 5: 5pm to 6pm

[Bob]

17 hours ago, Kintobor said:

A lot's been flying around here, and voting hasn't even started.

I'm interested in the reasons why our investigator targeted his wife. Bob, did he give any indication as to why he was looking into Diane?

Not exactly, no. He just said that he intended on investigating her and he ended up dying. 

3 hours ago, LegoMonorailFan said:

Exactly.

Any chance fhomess is a paranoid gun owner? 

Everyone does the paranoid gun owner differently, I've found. Sometimes it's only triggered by an attempted night kill and not just any night action, however it is up to interpretation by the host. 

Let's try something and see if our investigator was on the right path.

Vote: Diane Greene / fhomess 

Could be a mistake but it could be something to go on. Plus, Diane is in the list of people that might be the killer. With that said, just because they're not the killer doesn't mean they're not scum. 

[Kwatchi]

I went back through voting patterns to try and figure more things out.  It makes two assumptions (LMF = blocker, Khscary = investigator)

• Khscary was blocked night 1. That was some bad luck.
• Bob/Bob voted for Benson/LMF days 1-3 and was very aggressive on him.  So if the investigator cleared him, it was only during night 3.  That adds up. He voted on jluck day 4.
• LMF has voted the following (day 1/day 2/day 3/day 4): Bob/JamesN/Mostlytechnic/jluck.  Day 2-4 his votes are in step with Khscary.
• If we throw out day 1, Zepher mirrored Khscarymovie's pattern day 2-4.  Not sure if that means anything, but that pattern is there to see.
• Players who voted for LMF day 3 include: Asphalt,  Bob, Kintober, Lady K, Tariq.  My guess is there is a higher chance of scum in that group, but it really means they weren't in contact with Khscary or disagreed.

I have been talking to someone in PM (OOC: gasp, I know.  The game is so much more interesting now though).  We did some comparisons of our theories, and Tariq came out on top in a ven diagram of our suspicions.  I do think he is scum, but I also realize we can't afford a split vote today, or a wrong vote for that matter.  

Bob & LMF, I'd like a bit more reasoning on a Diane vote please before I'd back this.  Public or private is fine.

New Post! (please forum, don't show up as an edit!!!!)

Sorry Bob, I missed that last sentence somehow while I had multiple windows open trying to sort info.  I see the whole case you've laid out.

[Trekkie99]

If there are four scum, that would mean we're in lylo. So I think it's best to say this. 

Tariq j is a claimed commuter.

Right now our best bet at catching a scum killer is between Kwatchi, Zepher, Fhomess, or Asphalt.

[Bob]

4 hours ago, Kwatchi said:

Bob & LMF, I'd like a bit more reasoning on a Diane vote please before I'd back this.  Public or private is fine.

New Post! (please forum, don't show up as an edit!!!!)

Sorry Bob, I missed that last sentence somehow while I had multiple windows open trying to sort info.  I see the whole case you've laid out.

It's a bit of a flimsy reasoning, I'll be honest, but it's something to go on at least, I think. 

[fhomess]

10 hours ago, LegoMonorailFan said:

Any chance fhomess is a paranoid gun owner? 

I'm not a PGO.  My husband was almost certainly killed by the moles.  Given we've only had 1 kill each night, I don't think we have a vig or other night killing action.

9 hours ago, Tariq j said:

There is definitely a sense of convenience here, especially since all the players so far investigated are Town. It raises the question, was a mole in contact with the late Senator? Because if the moles knew one of their own was going to be investigated a kill would stop that result from reaching the town. 

Only two people were investigated, Bob and Benson.  That's not enough to draw any sort of conclusion about a pattern from.  The moles would be just as likely to want to stop an investigation that would clear me as townie because then the block grows.  If the scum knew that Larry was the investigator, there's no reason not to kill him.  Particularly if they had no reason to think they'd be prevented from doing so.

8 hours ago, Tariq j said:

I’ve been looking at this as a process of elimination here, which has helped in past games. The blockings are useful because they tell us who was NOT active during the night. Benson is the blocker so it cannot be him, he blocked Jason last night so he can’t be the killer, we know Bob is town according to the investigator so he can’t be the killer either, we also know myself and Riley were blocked on Nights 2 and 3 on which there were kills so we can’t be the killer either, that only leaves Moore, Alfred, Diane and Goddard as the killer. 

This theory could be completely wrong though, and is based on the idea that there’s no rotating kill. 

That’s what I’ve been thinking too. Bear in mind as well, the game mechanics are different here as both teams are against the clock. Unlike normal games the scum don’t need to outnumber anybody to win, they only need to Survive to win, so even if there was only 1 scum amongst 8 townies, the scum would still have won. 

Rotating kill, or being able to choose who will do the kill at night has shown up in the past.  I think it's less common, though.  As the unblocked, one of Moore, Alfred, or Goddard are almost certainly scum.  Yes, I'm leaving myself out of that group.

I think the idea that the moles merely need to survive to win would conceivably back the notion that the mole kill is not transferrable.

6 hours ago, Bob said:

Not exactly, no. He just said that he intended on investigating her and he ended up dying. 

Everyone does the paranoid gun owner differently, I've found. Sometimes it's only triggered by an attempted night kill and not just any night action, however it is up to interpretation by the host. 

Let's try something and see if our investigator was on the right path.

Vote: Diane Greene / fhomess 

Could be a mistake but it could be something to go on. Plus, Diane is in the list of people that might be the killer. With that said, just because they're not the killer doesn't mean they're not scum. 

Why me and not Moore, Alfred, or Goddard?  Is it simply because Larry wanted to target me?  Did he have suspicions on the others?

4 hours ago, LegoMonorailFan said:

If there are four scum, that would mean we're in lylo. So I think it's best to say this. 

Tariq j is a claimed commuter.

Right now our best bet at catching a scum killer is between Kwatchi, Zepher, Fhomess, or Asphalt.

I think that's fair.

54 minutes ago, Bob said:

It's a bit of a flimsy reasoning, I'll be honest, but it's something to go on at least, I think. 

It is, but it's wrong.  I'm town and I think most of you can look back on my approach to things and pick up on it if you see how I've behaved.

Vote: Wilson Goddard (Asphalt)

I'm throwing my vote for Wilson, not for anything particularly scummy he's done but due to the voting patterns.

Hour 1 - He voted for Zip, who is now confirmed town.

Hour 2 - He voted for Officer Lewis as the last vote.

The officer Lewis bandwagon looks as follows at this point: (Zepher, Khscarymovie4, Kintobor ... PENALTIES ... jluck, mostlytechnic, Tariq, Lady K, LMF, Asphalt)

If we take Benson at his word, and take Dr. James' commuter claim as being a townie claim, then that leaves Riley and Goddard on the bandwagon joiners.  I still think Riley is scum, even though Zip was town.

Hour 3 - He was second on Benson

On 1/17/2019 at 9:47 PM, KotZ said:

Current Vote Count
Benson (Legomonorailfan) - 5 votes (Bob, Asphalt, Kintobor, Tariq J, Lady K)
Agent Moore (Kwatchi) - 1 vote (jluck)
Zip (Mostlytechnic) - 4 votes (legomonorailfan, Zepher, fhomess, Khscarymovie4)
Dr. James (Tariq J) - 2 votes (Kwatchi, mostlytechnic)

... hmm... Alfred is the only non-townie on this failed "bandwagon" for Zip, and was early the next day voting for someone else... that person being Riley.  Riley is someone I continue to suspect, so I'm not sure what to make of that combination of things.

Hour 4 - Wilson voted for Zip in the middle of the pack

On 1/22/2019 at 7:32 PM, KotZ said:

Current vote tally
Riley Marshall (jluck) - 1 vote (legomonorailfan)
Jason White (Kintobor) - 1 vote (mostlytechnic)
Dr. James (Tariq J) - 1 vote (Kwatchi)
Zip (mostlytechnic) - 8 votes (fhomess, khscarymovie4, tariq j, Asphalt, jluck, Kintobor, Bob, zepher)

From my perspective, all the moles are on the Zip bandwagon.  Right now, the three I suspect the most are Wilson, Riley, and Jason White (Kintobor), who has been so anonymous this game I keep having to look up his name.  I guess he did enough to get blocked earlier.  I'd follow that group up with Alfred and Dr. James... commuter is a weird role to claim.

[Asphalt]

I can’t really defend my voting patterns other than I was attempting to go with what I THOUGHT were lynches being lead by loyal members of the CTU against who they thought were miles out to undermine our ranks. It was my bad luck to not have any strong suspicions of my own to go against them. The one part of your argument against me I can refute is that it was my second vote against Lewis that came at the end. During hour two I voted for Lewis very early because I didn’t feel right about the way he was bringing out pms in such a nearly quoted manner.  The group convinced me that I didn’t have a legitimate reason to find that scummy so I backed off. I did vote for him again after his melt down because I didn’t see any reason to vote for someone else when Lewis obviously wanted out. 

I don’t have enough experience in the game to read much into patterns let alone the patterns of this ring of craziness. This game has been a wild ride. 

So at the moment the only two votes are for you and for me.   I obviously cannot vote for myself. And we are in a lynch or lose situation.  So I cast my vote. 

Vote Diane Green (fhomess)

[KotZ]

Current Vote Count
Diane Green (fhomess) - 2 votes (Bob, Ashpalt)
Wilson Goddard (Asphalt) - 1 vote (fhomess)

With 9 players, a majority of 5 is needed to lynch. There are 25 hours left in the day.

[Trekkie99]

My vote choice has been hopping between zepher and asphalt for awhile now.

I think I'm setting myself up to be known as that guy who will repeat everything you say to him in PMs, but this one has me confused. Fhomess has claimed VC to me in PM. I'm not certain whether it was before or after asphalt put him at L-3 (lynch minus three votes), but I don't know what to think of it. It was kinda unprovoked, and along with the fact that the claim was directed at me, I feel like it could be scum trying earn my trust. But at the same time it kinda feels like something I would do if I was fearing getting mislynched and there was a confirmed or trusted town PR I could PM.

[Tariq j]

3 hours ago, LegoMonorailFan said:

My vote choice has been hopping between zepher and asphalt for awhile now.

I think I'm setting myself up to be known as that guy who will repeat everything you say to him in PMs, but this one has me confused. Fhomess has claimed VC to me in PM. I'm not certain whether it was before or after asphalt put him at L-3 (lynch minus three votes), but I don't know what to think of it. It was kinda unprovoked, and along with the fact that the claim was directed at me, I feel like it could be scum trying earn my trust. But at the same time it kinda feels like something I would do if I was fearing getting mislynched and there was a confirmed or trusted town PR I could PM.

What’s VC? Vigilante? A claim when someone is at risk of being lynched is one that should be taken with caution. In another life of mine, a player (who it later turned out was scum) came to me just as he was about to be lynched and claimed Vig. Bear in mind as well, there’s been plenty of time to claim to you so it’s odd he would wait till now to do so.

[Tariq j]

7 hours ago, Asphalt said:

 

I don’t have enough experience in the game to read much into patterns let alone the patterns of this ring of craziness. This game has been a wild ride. 

So at the moment the only two votes are for you and for me.   I obviously cannot vote for myself. And we are in a lynch or lose situation.  So I cast my vote. 

Vote Diane Green (fhomess)

Something about this rubs me up the wrong way. I understand Goddard is doing this for the sake of avoiding a no lynch but the fact he doesn’t even try and give evidence as to why Diane might be a mole (using his experience as an excuse to do so), but follows Bob and votes for her anyway seems too easy to me. For me it’s a flip between Goddard and Diane, I’m more inclined to vote for Goddard at this stage but until Mr Benson clarifies what he meant by “VC” I want to reserve my judgement till then.

[Trekkie99]

3 hours ago, Tariq j said:

What’s VC? Vigilante? A claim when someone is at risk of being lynched is one that should be taken with caution. In another life of mine, a player (who it later turned out was scum) came to me just as he was about to be lynched and claimed Vig. Bear in mind as well, there’s been plenty of time to claim to you so it’s odd he would wait till now to do so.

Dang it. I meant to say VT as in vanilla townie. 

fhomess has claimed Vannila Townie. 

Yeah I'm very mixed on fhomess. I feel it's extremely possible that his VT claim to me in PM is a scum tactic, but at the same time it feels like it could be townie behavior just as much as well.

I'd really like to hear more opinions on this.

[Asphalt]

3 hours ago, Tariq j said:

Something about this rubs me up the wrong way. I understand Goddard is doing this for the sake of avoiding a no lynch but the fact he doesn’t even try and give evidence as to why Diane might be a mole (using his experience as an excuse to do so), but follows Bob and votes for her anyway seems too easy to me. For me it’s a flip between Goddard and Diane, I’m more inclined to vote for Goddard at this stage but until Mr Benson clarifies what he meant by “VC” I want to reserve my judgement till then.

I don’t have any evidence against her. But today is a do or die moment and No one else is putting forth anyone for consideration. What good would a three four or seven way split do us. 

Though now with the pms coming to light I feel more confident in my vote. Anyone can send out a pm and claim anything they want now that there is no one left alive to confirm or deny it. That helps me believe that my vote is aimed at the correct mole. 

[Bob]

17 hours ago, fhomess said:

Why me and not Moore, Alfred, or Goddard?  Is it simply because Larry wanted to target me?  Did he have suspicions on the others?

If he did, he didn't share them with me. He told me to get in touch with Benson, however with all of the conversation happening in here I don't know if it's warranted. I don't know, it's something that the Senator wanted to go on. I'm not sold on it 100% myself. 

 

16 hours ago, Asphalt said:

Vote Diane Green (fhomess)

I mean, you're right, it is a bit of a do or die time, but it seems like you're a bit too eager to jump aboard. Can you think of anyone else besides Diane? 

 

5 hours ago, LegoMonorailFan said:

Dang it. I meant to say VT as in vanilla townie. 

fhomess has claimed Vannila Townie. 

Claiming vanilla town is something safe that scum sometimes do. However, at least it's not an attempt at claiming a power role. However, all of the power roles are pretty much revealed. I think it's very obvious we don't have a vigilante. They're either dead or we weren't given one. The Senator was the investigator, you've claimed blocker, and you say Tariq j has claimed commuter. 

The both of you (Diane and Wilson) voting for each other could just be two scum trying to split the vote between each other. After all, we can't say that the vigilante will kill the other tonight and we can't say that the investigator will investigate the other tonight either. Let's go through the list of remaining people:

1) Chloe O'Brian - Definitely a turncoat. At the end of the game that face is going to turn around if the scum win with a smug and evil face. The secondary NPC in these games is almost always a secret scum.

2) Agent Moore (Kwatchi) - Unknown. Claimed town on Day One during my push for a mass claim.

3) Alfred Drew (Zepher) - Unknown. Suspected throughout the days.

4) Benson (LMF) - Town Blocker according to claim, confirmed town by the investigator.

5) Bob (Bob) - Vanilla town, confirmed by investigator and I know I'm town.

6) Diane Green (fhomess) - Vanilla town, unconfirmed

7) Dr. James (Tariq j) - Town commuter, unconfirmed

8) Jason White (Kintobor) - Unknown? 

9) Riley Marshall (jluck) - Unknown? Who can say.

10) Wilson Goddard (Asphalt) - Unknown?

Why doesn't everyone claim what they are in thread? Or at least in private. There's no reason to hide anything at this point. The remaining town roles, to my knowledge, are out there already and revealed. I mean, I imagine that knowing this everyone is going to claim vanilla town, but it would still be good to have them all out there. 

[jluck]

Are we claiming public or should I PM LMF?

To have a vote down, I’m willing to vote for 

Vote: Diane Greene (fhomess)

A vanilla claim does very little to move the needle for me. I’m actually surprised he felt the need to claim it at all. 

[Kintobor]

Vote: Diane (fhomess)

At this point, a claim of vanilla town means nothing, as it can easily be faked, and I'm inclined to agree with Bob on this issue: our investigator clearly saw something worth investigating in Diane. I've been trying to go with my gut this whole game, and I'm inclined to trust our investigator's investigation.

[Tariq j]

4 hours ago, Bob said:

The both of you (Diane and Wilson) voting for each other could just be two scum trying to split the vote between each other. :

. 

That's an interesting point. It would also explain Mr Goddard's quick vote for Diane.

It's seems very convenient that Diane claimed AFTER the investigator died. Because at this point there's no way of proving her claim false. Bear in mind, Benson claimed last hour, so she's had plenty of time to claim too him.

I'm not going to split the vote so Vote: Diane Greene (fhommes)

[Trekkie99]

Vote: Diane Greene (fhomess)

I feel better about this vote now compared to earlier. My initial feeling that fhomess's claim was unprovoked feels more scum than town at this point. I also like the faces I'm seeing on this wagon since it was started by Bob who is confirmed town, and aside from asphalt everyone else on the wagon is someone I've blocked meaning there's a chance they're less likely to be a killer scum. Also Bob has made an interesting point about Diane and Wilson possibly splitting the vote.

Quick reminder to everyone to get their vote in.

 

[Zepher]

I'm a little nervous about how quickly these votes are accumulating. There are almost certainly scum among the voters with the numbers that have already come in, and I'm having trouble imagining they would sink one of their own. That being said there just aren't enough minutes left in the hour to turn around this ship. I'd look at those who voted for Diane middle of the pack (Riley, Dr. James - though I do think her claim makes her a little less likely to be scum than the other two, and Jason). I don't want to end up with a penalty tomorrow, and it seems unlikely we can turn this ship around at this point, so I too will Vote: Diane (fhommes) but it doesn't feel good.

[Kwatchi]

I was busy this afternoon and did not expect to come back to this. I won't be voting for Diane because there are too many things bugging me about what's occurred.

• 7 votes out of 9.  1 dissenter besides the lynchee.  That screams to me something is off right off the top.
• I have been in PMs with Diane/Fhomess.  At no time to did she make any overt attempt to influence my vote; we just bounced ideas off each other.  Were she scum, I think her interactions would have been more pointed.
• I don't like this statement one bit:

1 hour ago, LegoMonorailFan said:

Quick reminder to everyone to get their vote in.

Why state this?  It makes me nervous that this is result is being pushed through without giving people time to think about it.

• Lastly, I don't trust Tariq's claim of commuter... but not for obvious reasons.  I have openly been suspicious of Dr. James since Day 2.  Now when we get near the end, he/she suddenly claims a town role that is essentially a vanilla that can be untargettable.  If I wanted to put some weight behind my blind claim this would be a great PR role to choose, but If we are going into what may be our last night of action WHY would I openly broadcast to the scum that they shouldn't target me and waste their kill attempt?  Of course the problem is that Benson is the one who actually put this out publicly and that is where I get worried.  Was it a sloppy decision or covering tracks?

I don't want to vote Benson because all our theories are based on him and Bob in the town block.  Even though Bob started this run on Diane, he was allegedly using the info passed down to him from the investigator, and both he and Benson can't be a godfather*.  So one of the two is town for certain, and I say it is Bob.  Between this and him spearheading Mostlytechnic's lynch, I now have doubts about Benson.

It means nothing at this point in the day, but I am sticking with my Dr. James/Riley working together theory.  Tariq for reasons above and previously mentioned, and Jluck for contributing little of substance today (again) but swooping in to put the deciding vote on Diane.  I am going to switch my order though so when you go back through vote patterns it will stand out.

Vote: Riley (jluck)

 

*While it is an unlikely scenario that scum is composed of two godfathers and nothing else, it is not completely impossible given we have the wrinkle of a time limit.  Of course Khscary clearing both is so unlikely that if true we're doomed anyway, so no use worrying about it.

[KotZ]

Current Vote Count
Diane Green (fhomess) - 7 votes (Bob, Ashpalt, jluck, kintobor, tariq j, lmf, Zepher)
Wilson Goddard (Asphalt) - 1 vote (fhomess)
Riley MArshall (jluck) - 1 vote (Kwatchi)

With 9 players, a majority of 5 is needed to lynch. With 7 votes, Diane Green (fhomess) has been lynched.