Lord of the Rings Ongoing Discussion

[MAB]

2 hours ago, Lordhelmet said:

I’d be good with the old figure prices dropping because we got new better ones.  I doubt that we will ever see that market collapse but if they lost 25-50% of their value because we have newer better versions I’ll be here for it.  Heck I’d take a remake of all the sets right now :). 

Why would you want the old ones to drop in price if the newer ones are better? Even if the originals lost 50% of the value, the new ones would still be cheaper.

Aside from the Hobbit legs, I think I prefer the prints of the original ones as a whole group.

[Lordhelmet]

16 minutes ago, MAB said:

Why would you want the old ones to drop in price if the newer ones are better? Even if the originals lost 50% of the value, the new ones would still be cheaper.

Aside from the Hobbit legs, I think I prefer the prints of the original ones as a whole group.

thinking of it like this - steps to my logic.   1) if Lego reproduces all the old sets .  2) reproduced sets have minifigures that are much better than the original ones (overlap like hagrids hut).  3) demand for old minifigures drop because new better versions exist.  I would love that scenario because it means that Lego would be reproducing a ton of LOTR playsets with really high quality minifigures.  Even if that meant that my old ones lost their value i am in a better position where Lego is making new high quality LOTR playsets.

 

i do not expect the old ones to lose value because i doubt Lego will release enough to satisfy demand and the old figures were so good (plus collectors demand would be high).  

[CowabungaCat]

13 hours ago, MAB said:

The new Fellowship minifigures are considerably cheaper than the originals despite coming in a very large set, and they haven't really had any impact on the prices of the originals. If they re-release the Gandalf Arrives set, I doubt the value of the two figures from the original set would change very much, but the volume of sales would decrease. They are relatively common and cheap compared to other original figures already. A re-release would impact the price of modern Gandalf figures from Rivendell and any other new sets, as people wanting a modern Gandalf in grey robes can easily get one. That is pretty much what happened first time around. Gandalf the Grey figures were cheap, as were the two Frodo figures as they were repeated or in a cheap polybag. Whereas Gandalf the White wasn't repeated and has kept value.

Even with how common the sand green Frodo is, there have been just 29 transactions on bricklink in the past six months for new ones, worldwide. If a new version comes out, sellers are likely to keep the same prices and accept slower sales. They have been holding them for 10 years, waiting another 10 is not a big deal.

Guess my mistake was in thinking supply and demand was real. Demand going down but no one adjusting prices is basically a different flavour of what I posited.

I think one message is all I have in me to care about aftermarket values anyway

[MAB]

12 hours ago, Lordhelmet said:

thinking of it like this - steps to my logic.   1) if Lego reproduces all the old sets .  2) reproduced sets have minifigures that are much better than the original ones (overlap like hagrids hut).  3) demand for old minifigures drop because new better versions exist.  I would love that scenario because it means that Lego would be reproducing a ton of LOTR playsets with really high quality minifigures.  Even if that meant that my old ones lost their value i am in a better position where Lego is making new high quality LOTR playsets.

 

i do not expect the old ones to lose value because i doubt Lego will release enough to satisfy demand and the old figures were so good (plus collectors demand would be high).  

If they are producing sets with better figures, they aren't reproducing the old sets. They are making new sets based on the old, but they are different. Remember that AFOL collectors care about that sort of thing much more than kids. Bringing in new collectors that don't care which variant they have doesn't really change demand for the old. Without the new sets, chances are they wouldn't have bought the old. But also even if just 1% of the new collectors want every version, that will change the demand for the old. Sales volumes for the original figures are low after 10 years. Even just 10 new collectors worldwide wanting new condition original figures every year and willing to pay inflated prices is enough to prop up the high prices for them.

I've sold two sets of the original Fellowship figures (individually) since Rivendell was released. I put prices up after selling the first lot and the second lot still sold. For example, Boromir sold for £38 then £42 (June and July) at the same time the new one was about £15. Two does sound like many, but bear in mind it is probably about 5% of worldwide sales per year before Rivendell was released. As long as there is a tiny demand for the originals, prices remain. Volumes are probably at leat 10x more for the new, with even larger stocks. There is no need to drop prices to try to compete with the new, when even a small number are prepared to pay higher prices for the old. If someone listed their new condition original figures at the prices of the new versions, I'd buy them in an instant even though i still have a reasonable number of each left.

[2GodBDGlory]

On 1/12/2024 at 2:45 AM, kuzyabricks said:

Ah I see thank you! I know this is anecdotal evidence but almost every single creator on instagram I follow that had a poll for best set of 2023 had rivendell coming out on top. 

Brickset just released the results of a similar poll, which Rivendell won by a huge margin!

https://brickset.com/article/105280/result-what-is-your-favourite-set-of-2023

If Lego is trying to gauge interest in the theme, this looks like the kind of evidence they should need

[Khargeust]

22 minutes ago, 2GodBDGlory said:

Brickset just released the results of a similar poll, which Rivendell won by a huge margin!

https://brickset.com/article/105280/result-what-is-your-favourite-set-of-2023

If Lego is trying to gauge interest in the theme, this looks like the kind of evidence they should need

Do you think LEGO consult and take into consideration these polls ? I hope so much there is hope for Middle Earth sets.

[MAB]

2 hours ago, 2GodBDGlory said:

Brickset just released the results of a similar poll, which Rivendell won by a huge margin!

https://brickset.com/article/105280/result-what-is-your-favourite-set-of-2023

If Lego is trying to gauge interest in the theme, this looks like the kind of evidence they should need

Or they could use sales data.

[2GodBDGlory]

21 hours ago, Khargeust said:

Do you think LEGO consult and take into consideration these polls ? I hope so much there is hope for Middle Earth sets.

Eh, probably not too seriously, but one wonders

18 hours ago, MAB said:

Or they could use sales data.

Yep, they probably care more about that! Since we don't have access to that data, though, I guess polls give us a vague idea of how popular something is. (Though, of course, just because people like something doesn't mean they buy it)

[MAB]

2 hours ago, 2GodBDGlory said:

Yep, they probably care more about that! Since we don't have access to that data, though, I guess polls give us a vague idea of how popular something is. (Though, of course, just because people like something doesn't mean they buy it)

A brickset poll will be highly skewed as it has quite a niche membership compared to the more general population or even just LEGO buying adults. You only need to look at the comments when there is a 'controversial' set to see that (not too different to here in that sense.) There have been plenty of sets that seem to have sold quite well in the past, but were trashed by AFOL forum members.

[Khargeust]

MTS is 10332 and Barad Dur is 10333, so it implies that there will not be an Icons sets between march and june ? Strange, no ? Or maybe Barad Dur will be launched early ?

[Black Falcon]

1 hour ago, Khargeust said:

MTS is 10332 and Barad Dur is 10333, so it implies that there will not be an Icons sets between march and june ? Strange, no ? Or maybe Barad Dur will be launched early ?

Sets aren´t released based on their Set-Number or Numbered based on their release. No idea when they really are giving them the numbers but I would guess it is at an early stage when they don´t know the concrete release date yet.

[Balrogofmorgoth]

Legolas and Gimli Brickheadz confirmed!

[BrickBob Studpants]

Just now, Balrogofmorgoth said:

Legolas and Gimli Brickheadz confirmed!

Awesome! I was hoping we’d get more

[Cyprinus]

Of all the possible things Lego could do with the IP we get more discount Funkos. Yay...

[kuzyabricks]

I don't know how to feel about this lol. The brickheadz were cool I guess but feels like a waste. A $20 LOTR set, even a small little scene from the movies would not bankrupt Lego. Maybe it'll be the GWP for Baradur, I would appreciate that

[MAB]

39 minutes ago, kuzyabricks said:

I don't know how to feel about this lol. The brickheadz were cool I guess but feels like a waste. A $20 LOTR set, even a small little scene from the movies would not bankrupt Lego. Maybe it'll be the GWP for Baradur, I would appreciate that

The new brickheadz could also be a vip gwp with Barad-Dur, despite being a retail set. They have history here.

[kuzyabricks]

11 minutes ago, MAB said:

The new brickheadz could also be a vip gwp with Barad-Dur, despite being a retail set. They have history here.

Exactly what I expect and hope for! :D

[Lordhelmet]

41 minutes ago, kuzyabricks said:

I don't know how to feel about this lol. The brickheadz were cool I guess but feels like a waste. A $20 LOTR set, even a small little scene from the movies would not bankrupt Lego. Maybe it'll be the GWP for Baradur, I would appreciate that

I bought Rivendell day one, I plan on buying Baradur day one (very excited).  However, if there is no GWP like a small playset or an extra minifig I will likely wait on Barad dur until a 2x vip event and a decent GWP is available (maybe Black Friday). 

 

Still hoping to see a leak soon that there are three or four playlets late this year.

 

I will get the new brickheaedz but only to stay complete all of the LOTR sets. I did like the Arwen/Aragorn set last year but generally do not prefer the Brickheadz line.

[kuzyabricks]

1 minute ago, Lordhelmet said:

I bought Rivendell day one, I plan on buying Baradur day one (very excited).  However, if there is no GWP like a small playset or an extra minifig I will likely wait on Barad dur until a 2x vip event and a decent GWP is available (maybe Black Friday). 

 

Still hoping to see a leak soon that there are three or four playlets late this year.

 

I will get the new brickheaedz but only to stay complete all of the LOTR sets. I did like the Arwen/Aragorn set last year but generally do not prefer the Brickheadz line.

I don't think I can wait for a x2 VIP points, I want barad dur as soon as possible!

[Lordhelmet]

I just want Lego to do better with the GWP this time around.  Getting a Brickheadz that I already purchased last year wasn't good.  Then seeing other big sets from themes get much better GWP just rubbed it in (Gringgots).  I am holding out for 2X VIP if there is not a better GWP so that way I at least maximize a set I am going to buy this year.  Id take $20 in VIP points and a better GWP to wait a few extra months for something I have already waited 10 years for knowing that I will still get it.

[RichardGoring]

If they do offer an exclusive GWP, it sometimes doesn't happen until a while after release. Either way, I'd only buy it on release if there was something specific to it, and if not, happy to wait until something comes along that makes it better value. I finally got Rivdendell over the VIP weekend in November, and even then, only built it over the last few weeks, finishing last night. Have to say, it was pretty excellent. The final tree was fiddly, but otherwise, thought the process was great, and I love how it looks.

I enjoyed being able to use a few of the spare pieces to add some detail to Gandalf's staff too.

And using the space in the tower to store the spare minifigure elements.

[Ferder]

1 hour ago, RichardGoring said:

If they do offer an exclusive GWP, it sometimes doesn't happen until a while after release. Either way, I'd only buy it on release if there was something specific to it, and if not, happy to wait until something comes along that makes it better value. I finally got Rivdendell over the VIP weekend in November, and even then, only built it over the last few weeks, finishing last night. Have to say, it was pretty excellent. The final tree was fiddly, but otherwise, thought the process was great, and I love how it looks.

I enjoyed being able to use a few of the spare pieces to add some detail to Gandalf's staff too.

 

 

Staff looks great! Now Lego just needs to design a mold with his hair and hat combined. 

[mtrsteve]

4 hours ago, Balrogofmorgoth said:

Legolas and Gimli Brickheadz confirmed!

This is the worst news I've heard all day. 

And if they make one of these the GWP for Barad Dur, I will once again be waiting for 2x VIP to buy.

This is what happens when everyone runs out and buys the first wave of LotR brickheads just to show support for more LotR sets. You don't get more sets, you get more brickheads. Yay.

Yes I'm being melodramatic, it just feels like such a blueballing. 

[Balrogofmorgoth]

3 hours ago, mtrsteve said:

This is the worst news I've heard all day. 

And if they make one of these the GWP for Barad Dur, I will once again be waiting for 2x VIP to buy.

This is what happens when everyone runs out and buys the first wave of LotR brickheads just to show support for more LotR sets. You don't get more sets, you get more brickheads. Yay.

Yes I'm being melodramatic, it just feels like such a blueballing. 

We were always going to get more Brickheadz…between the BH and Rivendell people have shown lego that we simply want more LOTR products. Getting another BH pack doesn’t mean we won’t get anything else. It won’t be this year because they hadn't gotten a chance to see how the license sells yet. The BH didn’t even sell THAT well. Rivendell did. There will be more, especially if Barad-Dûr does well. I’ll be very surprised if 2025 doesn’t yield even more

Edited January 20 by Balrogofmorgoth

[Lordhelmet]

10 hours ago, Balrogofmorgoth said:

We were always going to get more Brickheadz…between the BH and Rivendell people have shown lego that we simply want more LOTR products. Getting another BH pack doesn’t mean we won’t get anything else. It won’t be this year because they hadn't gotten a chance to see how the license sells yet. The BH didn’t even sell THAT well. Rivendell did. There will be more, especially if Barad-Dûr does well. I’ll be very surprised if 2025 doesn’t yield even more

Is there any possibility we get some actual playlets this year?  With all the leaks that came out for later this year I am not sure there are any opportunities left?  Like the "orange" theme I think is the minions.  Just curious if there is any possibility of actual playlets this year.