Unrest in the Forest - Day 5: A Farewell to Kings

[Hinckley]

What have the stumps been doing with our codes?

[MagPiesRUs]

Oaks, WE SUCK AT BEING OAKS apparently!

Not surprised to see Waldorf flipping oak, but disappointed to see Hazel being hidden. Although I still don't like it, I'm seriously starting to reconsider the suggestion that no stump = maple or 3rd party. I just can't believe that with this many trees felled, there's not a single maple among them. Stumps, any guidance you can shed on things? Any reason to think any of our missing are oaks?

Why would you say that? You seemed fairly confident that Hazel was scum yesterday? So why does her being blown up today change your opinion on the "only oaks become stumps" theory?

Personally, I find myself agreeing more with the theory today. Does anyone find it odd that Hazel removed her avatar and signature soon after she was lynched? Seems like she wasn't expecting to return to us today...

This is a really good point, and it makes me think Barry was scum and the vig killed him or something...

Didn't we already establish yesterday who the vig targeted?

Sure. Here goes:

I was the other investigator. You can see that both Clem and I are Oaks, so the fact we had two investigators is undeniably true. Now that's established, I want everyone (EVERYONE) to claim to Simon.

Right now.

None of this BS where everyone claims vanilla or something. If you have a role (even if you're actually vanilla), TELL SIMON NOW.

If you don't, then you're a nasty scummo.

Don't you find it odd that both investigators have been killed on successive days? Both yours and Clem's night kills have felt a little strange to me, since neither of you were particularly pro-town. Either someone in the town block is a maple, or the maples have been paying very close attention to how everyone has been interacting with each other publicly.

[Hinckley]

Don't you find it odd that both investigators have been killed on successive days? Both yours and Clem's night kills have felt a little strange to me, since neither of you were particularly pro-town. Either someone in the town block is a maple, or the maples have been paying very close attention to how everyone has been interacting with each other publicly.

This Scum team has a different challenge. Who do they want to verify as Town? I think that's why they're hitting less active people. Since they can't shut any of us up, they're probably trying to hit lower posters who might be guarding Night Actions. They may also have a rolecop.

I thought this is what I said to you when you PMed me yesterday to check if I had told anyone else about Clem or wondered if Lassie was in the town block...and justified your vote for Peter for some reason.

[mostlytechnic]

Why would you say that? You seemed fairly confident that Hazel was scum yesterday? So why does her being blown up today change your opinion on the "only oaks become stumps" theory?

Did you read what I said? Yes, I thought hazel was scum and still do. I meant that with 13 trees down, none have shown up maple. All are either oak stumps or gone. Therefore, I think it may be true that the missing stumps (alastair, barry, hazel) are maples or 3rd party. I still don't like that theory, since I don't think it's a good scheme to have the Alder be inaccurate like that. But that doesn't mean it can't happen. The fact that I think hazel was scum and her stump is gone made me reconsider my position on how the stumps happen and don't happen.

[Lady K]

What have the stumps been doing with our codes?

We are working with it. I don't think you want me to go into details in the thread.

[Hinckley]

We are working with it. I don't think you want me to go into details in the thread.

Waldorf has an elaborate language with me now so you guys can bounce things off of me if you need.

[Bob]

I'd have to say that I'm under the belief that those who are "Alignment Unknown" are likely to be Maples. There's no way that in the thirteen trees that have been felled that we haven't found a single Maple yet. However, the scum probably have a janitor as well. I'm just looking at the types of unknown alignment kills we've had. Two bombs and one who was ripped out of the ground. Is it possible that the scum are lifted from the ground and the janitored kills are blown up? It would seem this way, since the worker about to cut down Alistair claimed it was an accident. Maybe I'm over thinking it, since there's supposedly no clues or hints in the photograph, but sometimes old habits do die hard.

I'm still quite suspicious of Peter Cedar and Berty Birch. Peter for flying under the radar and contributing absolutely nothing of substance this entire game, and Berty for his numerous reversals, his actions with Hazel yesterday, and I've been suspicious of the miller claim since Day One. I'm under the impression that someone experienced told him to claim Miller, which is why it came so late in the day. Even if he is inexperienced, most people know how to handle the miller role. I'd be fine with voting for either today, unless Bruce or Waldorf tell me why Nash is a better candidate to them.

[Hinckley]

I'd have to say that I'm under the belief that those who are "Alignment Unknown" are likely to be Maples. There's no way that in the thirteen trees that have been felled that we haven't found a single Maple yet. However, the scum probably have a janitor as well. I'm just looking at the types of unknown alignment kills we've had. Two bombs and one who was ripped out of the ground. Is it possible that the scum are lifted from the ground and the janitored kills are blown up? It would seem this way, since the worker about to cut down Alistair claimed it was an accident. Maybe I'm over thinking it, since there's supposedly no clues or hints in the photograph, but sometimes old habits do die hard.

I think that might've been story from the host. Alastair was a sapling. So dynamite isn't necessary. Possibly...

I'm still quite suspicious of Peter Cedar and Berty Birch. Peter for flying under the radar and contributing absolutely nothing of substance this entire game, and Berty for his numerous reversals, his actions with Hazel yesterday, and I've been suspicious of the miller claim since Day One. I'm under the impression that someone experienced told him to claim Miller, which is why it came so late in the day.

Have you mentioned these suspicions of Berty before today?

[Bob]

Have you mentioned these suspicions of Berty before today?

Not openly, no. I haven't shared too many of my suspicions openly since Day Three. My scumdar hasn't been the most reliable this game. Other people had claimed that it's possible that Berty was just claiming Miller to avoid being lynched or looked at too closely, and I don't like being a big echo.

[MagPiesRUs]

This Scum team has a different challenge. Who do they want to verify as Town? I think that's why they're hitting less active people. Since they can't shut any of us up, they're probably trying to hit lower posters who might be guarding Night Actions. They may also have a rolecop.

I thought this is what I said to you when you PMed me yesterday to check if I had told anyone else about Clem or wondered if Lassie was in the town block...and justified your vote for Peter for some reason.

So you don't find it odd that two investigators have been killed in two nights? It's not impossible for the maples to stumble into both investigators, but it is quite a coincidence. I suppose the revealing of vanillas on Day Three didn't help though.

As far as Lassie goes, I wasn't fishing. I know what you're like, I never expected you to confirm or deny what I said. I was just explaining my thought process. As for Peter, I explained what I found odd about him because you had asked me in the thread and I didn't have a chance to respond.

Did you read what I said? Yes, I thought hazel was scum and still do. I meant that with 13 trees down, none have shown up maple. All are either oak stumps or gone. Therefore, I think it may be true that the missing stumps (alastair, barry, hazel) are maples or 3rd party. I still don't like that theory, since I don't think it's a good scheme to have the Alder be inaccurate like that. But that doesn't mean it can't happen. The fact that I think hazel was scum and her stump is gone made me reconsider my position on how the stumps happen and don't happen.

Sorry, looks like I interpreted your comment the wrong way. When you said you were reconsidering the theory, I thought you meant you were starting to doubt it.

[Lady K]

Waldorf has an elaborate language with me now so you guys can bounce things off of me if you need.

Thank you. We will pass along info we think you need after talking with one another over the new days events. Different time zones makes conversation slow sometimes.

[Fugazi]

I find it weird that Berty was explaining his defense of Hazel to me this afternoon and then hovered over Alder while the day was posted then disappeared altogether.

Hovered over Alder?

Two bombs and one who was ripped out of the ground. Is it possible that the scum are lifted from the ground and the janitored kills are blown up? It would seem this way, since the worker about to cut down Alistair claimed it was an accident.

Do you think that only Alastair was scum?

[Hinckley]

Hovered over Alder?

(stared at the forum until the game was posted...)

[Hinckley]

It's quiet in here...

[fhomess]

It's quiet in here...

We're all speaking in sign language so the maples don't understand what we're saying.

Unless the block or stumps provide some evidence of scum-foolery, I think we're back to looking at some of the behavioral cues again. Berty's interaction with Hazel yesterday seems to suggest that if we think Hazel was scum, we probably ought to put Berty along side. I also found it odd that Sammy was quick to call out Hazel's self vote yesterday but wasn't all that quick to vote for her.

[badboytje88]

Personally, I find myself agreeing more with the theory today. Does anyone find it odd that Hazel removed her avatar and signature soon after she was lynched? Seems like she wasn't expecting to return to us today...

Oh my god that ia just Brilliant. Affiliation comfirmed: Maple!

And that means that the dynamite janitored players are most likely Maple.

[Dragonfire]

Anyone who has been paying attention doesn't need all of this repeated about our illustrious "Miller". But, let's take a look anyway. First, he loves polar opposites:

"I only believe there's a janitor when it makes me look less Scummy."

I firmly believed that there was not a janitor in the game until Hazel, who I thought was town, died. For Hazel to be town, a janitor must exist. Please don't accuse me of flip-flopping between opposites. It would look far scummier if I did a 180 here and denounced Hazel as a Maple.

"I think Hazel is Scum until our gambit goes too far and she starts getting lynched. Then I'm pretty sure she's Town." Maybe there was a fight on the Scumboard and Berty was left to do damage control. I'd be annoyed if a fellow Scum tried to quit. Or she was a hammerer. "Hey, if we get too tied up we can just try and bus Chester!"

I clearly stated to you in PM that I thought Hazel was scummy up until her selfvote post. I then reread her posts and could see the newb-Town perspective.

Or in the hopes we'd question instead of know you are Scum.

This is what the real Maples want. They probably janitored Hazel so that we'd lynch a townie (me) today. The whole point of Hazel being janitored was a lead-up to my lynch. And you can never be certain of anything until the game conclusion. Only scum can know people's alignments.

"Oh, look! Chester tried to twist Jack's words, just like my new buddy Hazel did! I better point that out so we can put on a big act about how Scummy it is to twist someone's words around!" How did I miss this one? The above two quotes are just ridiculous considering it was Hazel who actually did the word twisting and Berty who was desperate to cast suspicion of her for some reason. Is there a role Hazel had that you really wanted to hold onto that it was better to get rid of Chester? Are you trying to give us Chester so we'll believe you're Town? Or is Chester somehow Town? Who knows, but this behavior, Berty, is just plain Scummy. Can't chalk it up to being a noob Townie anymore. I've switched you over to the Scum column.

Hazel came to me in private and asked me how she could look townier in-thread. I told her if she was town, she should make a case on someone who she found scummy. Her case on Chester was hypocritical, but I didn't point it out because it would just lower her self-esteem. I truly believed that she was town being taken advantage of.

It seems obvious to me that Berty was connected to two other players that are most likely Scum: Barry and Hazel. It no longer seems like gullible trust. It seems intentionally misleading. From fishing for the bomb to defending Hazel, I think you've worn out your welcome.

Barry: I townread him and was talking to him in PM from Day 1. We were talking about general things besides Mafia. He decided to claim to me. I trusted the wrong person, is that wrong?

Hazel: I had a null/scum read on her up until her selfvote, then it switched to a townread. Is it a crime to townread Scum? (and there's no conclusive evidence that we've caught any scum yet)

Sure. Here goes:

I was the other investigator. You can see that both Clem and I are Oaks, so the fact we had two investigators is undeniably true. Now that's established, I want everyone (EVERYONE) to claim to Simon.

Right now.

None of this BS where everyone claims vanilla or something. If you have a role (even if you're actually vanilla), TELL SIMON NOW.

If you don't, then you're a nasty scummo.

So Simon was telling the truth about the investigators.

I find it incredibly suspicious that the two investigators died on consecutive nights. There's probably a scum in the town block.

Don't you find it odd that both investigators have been killed on successive days? Both yours and Clem's night kills have felt a little strange to me, since neither of you were particularly pro-town. Either someone in the town block is a maple, or the maples have been paying very close attention to how everyone has been interacting with each other publicly.

Yeah, I agree. It's likely that there is scum in the block- probably someone who got investigated is the Godfather.

I'd have to say that I'm under the belief that those who are "Alignment Unknown" are likely to be Maples. There's no way that in the thirteen trees that have been felled that we haven't found a single Maple yet. However, the scum probably have a janitor as well. I'm just looking at the types of unknown alignment kills we've had. Two bombs and one who was ripped out of the ground. Is it possible that the scum are lifted from the ground and the janitored kills are blown up? It would seem this way, since the worker about to cut down Alistair claimed it was an accident. Maybe I'm over thinking it, since there's supposedly no clues or hints in the photograph, but sometimes old habits do die hard.

I'm still quite suspicious of Peter Cedar and Berty Birch. Peter for flying under the radar and contributing absolutely nothing of substance this entire game, and Berty for his numerous reversals, his actions with Hazel yesterday, and I've been suspicious of the miller claim since Day One. I'm under the impression that someone experienced told him to claim Miller, which is why it came so late in the day. Even if he is inexperienced, most people know how to handle the miller role. I'd be fine with voting for either today, unless Bruce or Waldorf tell me why Nash is a better candidate to them.

Suddenly, out of the blue, you suspect me (just after Simon's post). Numerous reversals? I switched from believing there was no janitor to thinking there was a janitor, and I switched from nullscum-reading Hazel to townreading her. You've never before expressed suspicion of my claim, so why now? Ping.

We're all speaking in sign language so the maples don't understand what we're saying.

Unless the block or stumps provide some evidence of scum-foolery, I think we're back to looking at some of the behavioral cues again. Berty's interaction with Hazel yesterday seems to suggest that if we think Hazel was scum, we probably ought to put Berty along side. I also found it odd that Sammy was quick to call out Hazel's self vote yesterday but wasn't all that quick to vote for her.

Yep, you can lynch me if Hazel was scum. I myself would condone my lynch were Hazel scum. But was she? Nobody knows.

[Hinckley]

Thou doth protest too much.

So, two people knew the identity of the investigators: me and Bruce. Which one of us is Scum? Because it can't be "someone in the Town block" because as I stated, we aren't even telling the other verified Townies and PRs who the others are. But it's interesting that you and Adelaide are similarly trying to arouse suspicion around the Town block.

I only had three hours of sleep the last two nights in a row because of homework. I'm a heavy sleeper so I set two alarms. When they went off this morning I was half dreaming that one was lying and I had to figure out which one. Naturally, I kept hitting snooze on both to give me more time.

[Dragonfire]

Thou doth protest too much.

So, two people knew the identity of the investigators: me and Bruce. Which one of us is Scum? Because it can't be "someone in the Town block" because as I stated, we aren't even telling the other verified Townies and PRs who the others are. But it's interesting that you and Adelaide are similarly trying to arouse suspicion around the Town block.

I only had three hours of sleep the last two nights in a row because of homework. I'm a heavy sleeper so I set two alarms. When they went off this morning I was half dreaming that one was lying and I had to figure out which one. Naturally, I kept hitting snooze on both to give me more time.

You're not? Oh, I see. I assumed that everyone in the Town block knew the identities of the investigators. I stand corrected.

[Hinckley]

I suppose the revealing of vanillas on Day Three didn't help though.

As far as Lassie goes, I wasn't fishing. I know what you're like, I never expected you to confirm or deny what I said. I was just explaining my thought process.

Yes, Lauren hands the Scum a free list of vanilla Townies. Which is why I don't like when you come to me with a list of those who hadn't claimed codes and basically ask which ones are in the Town block.

[Fugazi]

Unless the block or stumps provide some evidence of scum-foolery, I think we're back to looking at some of the behavioral cues again. Berty's interaction with Hazel yesterday seems to suggest that if we think Hazel was scum, we probably ought to put Berty along side. I also found it odd that Sammy was quick to call out Hazel's self vote yesterday but wasn't all that quick to vote for her.

I had to make sure that Hazel wasn't a misguided Oak:

Let me explain this again, and I'll try not to mix up the names this time! You started by pretending you're giving up, wanting to be lynched. Fair enough. I told you that I thought you were either 1) Oak seting up a trap for Maples; 2) Maple acting like he was a Jester; 3) a real Jester; or 4) Maple acting like crazy so that we dismiss him as Oak. Right then you turned around, pretending you don't want to be lynched anymore. I accused you of jumping one one of the options I gave you, the one that made you look useful (Oak setting up a trap). Maybe you were afraid of your plan backfiring. Maybe you are option 5) a Maple setting up a trap for Oaks. In any case, the weirdness of your behaviour pretty much justifies voting for you (options 2-4-5 above), so I'm still trying to figure out what kind of game you're playing.

What did Hazel do? She replied that he really thought of giving up, which was the unlikeliest of answers. Scrolling back a few pages:

Unvote: Hazel Hazelnut (Goliath)

I took some to reevaluate myself and don't want to go out like this, no. I'm not going to give up, screw that. Chester, Nash, or Jack, expect a case against you from me sometime soon.

Reevaluate herself? I call BS. It's bad acting and she should have at least admitted to it. But she stuck to her lie after I offered her to come out with the truth. Then Berty the Miller kept defending Hazel against all odds, and for me it was the last straw. This stubborn solidarity had to be tested, so I voted.

Yeah, I agree. It's likely that there is scum in the block- probably someone who got investigated is the Godfather.

Coming from you, I'd say this is rather reassuring for the town block.

Yep, you can lynch me if Hazel was scum. I myself would condone my lynch were Hazel scum. But was she? Nobody knows.

We can and should lynch you because we can only trust a Miller's behaviour to speak for their alignment. There's no way the Oaks can keep around a Miller who's been behaving erratically. A claiming Miller must keep a flawless record in order to survive.

edit: *she* really thought of giving up

[mostlytechnic]

Yep, you can lynch me if Hazel was scum. I myself would condone my lynch were Hazel scum. But was she? Nobody knows.

Ok, expect a vote from me when voting opens.

We're looking at the same data (the lack of stumps) exactly opposite. I started out thinking there had to be a janitor. Made for the simplest explanation - Alastair was janitored probably just for confusion's sake going into day 2. Odds are he was an oak, just looking at the odds and the fact that it's day 1.

But now, with 3 missing stumps, I'm not thinking that anymore:

1. Janitor usually is a limited use role. We've got 3 missing stumps already - seems like a lot to me.
   
2. No missing stump from night 2. Why? If the maples DID have an unlimited (or at least a very many shot) janitor, why not use it night 2? Surely they'd have wanted to keep the confusion going. There was so much debate over codes and stumps and Catarina, if they'd have had a janitor they'd have used it. Surely.
   
3. I still think Hazel was scum. So it's possible if they had a janitor, they'd have used it to hide her identity. But then we're back to point 1 - could they have this many janitors? If they do, we're back to point 2, why not use it night 2 as well?
   
4. Finally, the scum knew Waldorf would flip oak and come back as a stump. If I were them and had a janitor ability, I'd have let Hazel flip scum, since (by definition of a lynch) a majority of people thought she was anyway, and removed Waldorf instead to keep him from coordinating between us and the stumps. ESPECIALLY if they knew he was the investigator as some think they did - keep him from confirming that and keep people questioning Simon and the dual-investigator story. Instead, since he came back as stump, we've got solid trustworthy confirmation that seals Simon as legit.
   

So that's why now, since we have ZERO proven maples or 3rd parties, I'm leaning that we were right in thinking Barry and Hazel were scum. Alastair was either scum or 3rd party and we got really lucky on day 1 voting. And I think oaks come back as stumps and since there'd be no point in a maple or 3rd party coming back as a stump, they're removed. And the scum don't have a janitor.

And so it's logically consistent that Hazel was scum like we thought. And that means you probably are too - so as I said, expect my vote.

[Zepher]

I'm still not 100% sold that they don't have some multi-shot janitor. The stumps are proving a great aid to the Oaks, and I continue to believe they must be balanced out some how. That being said, for the time being I have absolutely no trouble assuming that the non-stump trees are Maples. I'd figure that at least two of them are, so it seems like a better assumption - so we can actually start to get some answers and analyze behavior - is to act like they all are.

That being said, its totally possible there is no janitor. But that's all sort of just guesswork that doesn't matter either way because I think it's safe to treat stumps as not Oak regardless of how they're becoming non-stumps.

And it seems like Simon is cleared.

Chester has been tickling me since Day 2. Berty has as well. I don't know why a Maple would claim Miller so early and while not under scrutiny, but I can understand a Maple claiming Miller (obviously) and he's been very not helpful since then. On top of that, the fact that he claimed so late in the day is interesting. Perhaps he wanted to claim it, but not at a time that he would have been scrutinized (and no lynch could have really built against him). Once the night passed no one really questioned it or discussed it much.

I'm also willing to see where the Town Block leads us.

[jimmynick]

The stumps have pointed out this meta-inconsistency. First, someone way in the future of Berty's family tree (tee^hee) joined Excalibur TNG:

1) No, never on Eurobricks. I have played on MafiaScum though.

2) Not applicable

3) I'll be available until August.

4) Yes, I promise.

5) Gunner, if there is one. If not, some kind of high-ranking officer.

Second, Berty explains why he hesitated to claim miller:

I claimed to Simon because I thought that he might already be in contact with the investigator (because he does seem to be a "hot spot" for PM activity doesn't he?). I wasn't sure about how to handle the miller role, and I came to the conclusion that it wouldn't really hurt me to claim it; it would benefit town to know the existence of a miller. I did think that I would be the investigation target, because out of the whole discussion yesterday, I viewed myself as one of the main targets of suspicion and therefore a possible investigator target.

(snip)

As I said, I've never been, or played with, a miller before and I was unsure about how to handle the role.

And I think it's suspect that Berty went to Simon to claim when he was, as yet, unconfirmed.

[Lady K]

I think it's important to note that Berty also says in the same post (Day 2, post 198) that he has played with the janitor role before but on a very different site. I find it strange that he knows about how to play a janitor role but not a miller role?