iamded, on 09 September 2012 - 06:57 AM, said:
Alright, I've finally had time to sit down and analyse this whole thing. All the points Cameron's made have been valid, and since I know I'm a townie, and am apparently being set up, I really have no reason to trust Maurice's act. I'd love to know who started this thing by telling Brigit I seemed scummy, as they themselves have to be scum. I believe Brigit was duped by someone. She started to show some doubt yesterday after I explained away all my accusations, and it could have gone either way I think, but then of course she shows up dead today. So of course here I am sitting smack in the middle of this frame, and Maurice keeps rallying after me trying to get me lynched. Add to this the previous defending of Casey, disguised as simple 'loving affection'. As if.
So with that, I'll Vote: Maurice Mouse (Cecilie)
, and go look for some more delicious shrooms. I'm starting to run low...
This just made me even more sure you are scum. And you're probably sitting there with your Cultist buddies laughing, and thinking you'll win tomorrow, after you janitor me.
Since nobody is listening to me today, I'm going to lay out some thoughts that maybe you'll listen to tomorrow. If they janitor me in the night, PLEASE consider the fact that you can't be certain of my allegiance, and don't just assume I was scum and work off that. That'll make town lose!
Now then. How many scum are left, I wonder? Let me present a hypothesis:
- I assume there were 5 scum to begin with.
- Wallace got himself killed, dropping their number to 4.
- We lynched Carly. But was she really scum? I'm not convinced. And part of the argument for lynching Casey was that she wasn't, so I'm going to assume she was town. No change to the scum number then, still at 4.
- Again, there is no Cultist kill. But on night 2, we have no tellings of a Villager being made to target someone against their free will. Did they convert this night? Not improbable. They lost a member on day 1, it's not surprising if they wanted to regain their strength. Let's say they did, and that's the reason for no cultist kill that night. That makes them 5 again.
- Then only Villagers die until we lynch Casey, bringing the number back down to 4.
Ok, so if we assume this, then there are still 4 Cultists among us! How many are we left? 13. That makes 9 Villagers and 4 Cultists. Then you lynch me, it will be 8 Villagers and 4 Cultists. In the worst case scenario, there will be 3 more Villagers dead in the night, if all the killers are successful, and both the SK and vig target a townie. What's the number then? 5 to 4! Meaning if this happens, and I'm right about the Cultist number, tomorrow will be make or break for Town! Heck, even with just 2 dead townies in the night, it will be 6-4, and still make or break. Just something to keep in mind when you pick your lynch tomorrow... It could be our last chance.
Now, let's roll back to yesterday's votes, color coded for your convenience.
Casey Cat (Scouty)
: 9 votes (Scubacarrot
, CallMePie, Cecilie
, Shadows, penalty, WhiteFang, Quarryman)
Pennie Pig (Eskaloon)
: 4 votes (Dannylonglegs, Dragonator, Scouty
Booker Bear (Dragonator): 2 votes (penalty, Zepher)
Non-voters: 3 (iamded
, Professor Flitwick, TinyPiesRUs)
Green is confirmed Villager (yes, I am green in the list, I can't unconfirm myself
), Red is confirmed Cultist, and Orange is to mark those I'm pretty certain are Villagers, but I can't confirm it. And Horace in pink, just because
Now, when I voted for Pennie, and then switched my vote to Casey, the vote could still go either way. I believe the Cultists were still hoping they could get Pennie lynched over Casey, but after I switched my vote, the votes piled up against Casey, because the Cultist probably realized then it wasn't going to happen, and wanted to quickly hide in the bandwagon. There are even 3 non-voters yesterday, and one who decided to just vote for someone completely different. I don't think both Horace and Lazlo are scum, given that Lazlo is voting for Horace today, so that leaves two potential scum in the non-voters. So I think there are 4 scum hiding in this list of people:
Shawna, Edgar, Gilda, Pancho, Horace, Mindy, Booker.
Now, this doesn't clear Heidi or Seamus, but Heidi voted for Casey before I did (when the vote could still swing), and Seamus voted first for Pennie, a risky move for scum. There's also one tidbit of interesting context in here: Shawna accused Pennie, but ended up voting for Casey after it was clear that was the way the vote was swinging... Just saying.
Sorry for the wall of text everyone, but I feel like there's nothing left for me to do but to leave you with my thoughts to look at once I'm gone
. Maybe I can find some good stories in the afterlife. There should be plenty of people there who have experienced interesting things I can use as inspirat... I mean that I can retell!