BrickBob Studpants

Out of the possible Ron variants, this does seem like one of the most likely options, especially if all members of the trio are based on HBP ...even though there‘s no particularly memorable HBP outfit for Hermione that comes to mind That reminds me that the CMF reveal itself really won‘t be all that spectacular. Of course I‘m excited for it, but out of the 7 unknown ones, two have to be Ron and Hermione and there‘s stille wiggle room for a second version of Harry, just like in the first series. Speaking of which, the lack of random students so far concerns me a bit, so another spot could go to one of them, leaving us with around 3 potentially more exciting characters (Unless you count Neville and Myrtle as random students, which is debatable) I‘m not complaining since the 9 we do know about are all excellent, but when it comes to the reveals, I‘m definitely much more excited for DA

My bad, I confused BAM with B&P in my last post, it‘s BAM-exclusive There are quite a few German bricklinkers who usually offer these parts shortly after they start appearing at LEGO stores, so it shouldn‘t take that long Man, I truly envy people who live in driving distance to a LEGO store. It would take me at least 5-6 hours to get to the nearest ones

Out of these two dates, the 31st makes a lot more sense since TLG don‘t usually reveal stuff on weekends, as @Modal points out However, my money is on the 30th

But... but my beautiful (yet heavily flawed) prediction model Well, we shall see who prevails in the end

Absolutely not. No fake can possibly be this good

That’s what I meant by “better than the alternative” What‘s even funnier to me, as discussed before, is the circumstance that we‘d probably still think it‘s a Marvel series if it hadn‘t been for that leak Sure, a lot of web stores list 71028 as what it is, but a vast majority of them probably saw that leak too since the shops that do list it as „HP Series 2“ are mostly brick-related and thus likely pay attention to such news.

The only thing that bothers me about the CMF reveal is that we’ve already seen more than half of them Sure, it was probably the best leak in the history of our hobby, but it also sort of took away half of the magic of this reveal Still better than the alternative Thanks! Not really, I’m too lazy for that

I was still a bit bored and decided to delve deeper into the issue by calculating a regression model to predict the reveal date (Bayesian btw, so the small sample size was less of an issue if there happen to be any frequentists around here). I calculated the difference between the reveal and release date for every series between now and Series 11 (turns out it was quite hard to find reliable dates prior to S11 ). My model with day of week, license and position as predictors is kinda sucky, but it still converged. The only valid predictor was day of the week, meaning the later in the week, the earlier the reveal. Whether a series was licensed or not had no bearing on the results and the position (meaning whether it’s the first, second or third series in the year) had a negative influence, i.e. the later the series, the later the reveal. If you insert the values of HP S2 back into the regression formula, the reveal should happen between the 24th of July at the earliest and the 6th of August at the latest (DUH). I then calculated another model without the day of week and the estimated date was the 30th of July. Let’s see if that prediction will become true (I’m not too confident since the second model is considerably weaker and explains almost 20% less variance than the other one) Yes, I indeed have nothing better to do

You mean my level of boredom? Hey, it was worth a shot, even if the results are useless Seems like TLG will reveal stuff whenever they feel like it

I got bored and decided to look up when the CMF series since the first WW one were revealed, and this is what I found: WW S1: 27.6.18 (Wednesday) TLM2: 3.1.19 (Thursday) Disney S2: 20.3.19 (Wednesday) S19: 1.8.19 (Thursday) DC: 2.12.19 (Monday) S20: 17.3.20 (Tuesday) Of course nowhere near enough data to infer anything from Sadly though, it is possible we might not see a reveal this week, as S19, the TLM2 series, and the DC series demonstrate it’s not unprecedented for a series to be revealed at the very beginning of a month rather than at the end of the month prior. The biggest anomaly is definitely Disney S2, which might have been a response to the equally early leak (not as spectacularly early as HP S2 mind; that one will be legendary ). Series 20 doesn’t really count since it was technically unveiled a month earlier at the NYTF and its release was April 27th rather than May 1st. Bottom line: expect the unexpected I guess

It’s definitely the same style though: black background with the LEGO logo on the bottom left above a colourful strip of greebling with the set info on it plus the set’s name floating around somewhere in a fancy font I fail to see how the NES boxart is supposed to be different from the other 18+ sets

Sorry for the double-post, but a new black dachshund will be available at B&P soon: https://www.promobricks.de/lego-space-mops-torso-dackel/105648/ It’s adorable

I will forever lament TLG’s decision to create minidoll-ified animal moulds Imagine if they instead used minifig-compatible moulds, just in pastell colours and with cutesy printing for the minidoll themes LEGO animals are stylised either way, no need for stylising something that’s already heavily stylised to begin with

The age range doesn’t matter at all, what matters to some of us is the boxart Most (if not all) of us would prefer the set not to be 18+ because that boxart style wouldn’t really fit with DA.

There, FTFY At least there’s a good chance for a CMF reveal Now give me something for my pain and let me die

I’m 99.9% sure the Burtonmobile would have been an 18+ set if the label existed last year Heck, its boxart even had the 18+ style background with the set information on the very bottom I wouldn’t be surprised if this boxart was a sort of prototype for the 18+ style, I mean just look at it

My thoughts exactly The main question is what dictates the age range of a set. Size alone can’t be it since the last Death Star playset was 14+. The target audience for DA should also be quite varied in its age range, opposed to the Grand Piano or the NES which are pretty clearly focused on adults, despite having play features as well. It’s very hard to draw a conclusion here, especially since the lines between display models and playsets can be very blurry. The good thing here is that once DA is revealed, we at least know how TLG will handle it for all future D2Cs

True, not all 18+ sets have to be huge, the question is more whether all huge sets have to be 18+ I feel that the new 18+ label killed the 16+ one since most of these would be 18+ if released today and there’s nothing that separates a 16+ from a 18+ set in terms of content. The only reason I could get behind to keep both labels would be the boxart style

Check out Brickset's review of the NES: https://brickset.com/article/52670/review-71374-nintendo-entertainment-system Two highlights: The set only contains three stickers (two for the cartridge and one for the info on the back of the TV, which is funny because both of these are also stickers IRL). So many awesome prints This hidden level on the back of the NES: This is simply amazing. You can feel the designers' love for the NES oozing from every corner

Everything except D2C sets The NES has the same release date in the USA as the rest of the world and recent D2C sets like 43179 were also launched worldwide on the same day. I don’t see a reason to assume it would be different for DA

The August store calendar has been spotted and there is no mention of a VIP early access period Don’t be surprised if the set doesn’t get revealed for another three weeks At least we have the CMF series to look forward to

Several issues here: We don’t know if any of the shows will get sets in the first place F&TWS has been delayed There’s no way WV won’t be moved as well If there were any sets intended to be released this year, we would’ve heard about them by now They especially wouldn’t have missed the chance to reveal something at SDCC@h And finally, just to reiterate: not everything FalconFan posts has to be a hint. This isn’t the first time people interpreted way too much into a single post of his

Not everything @Falconfan1414 posts has to be a hint

...you do realise that the CMF series includes that book with new moulds and everything, right?

The magic word here is “if” We simply don’t know if there’s going to be a VIP early access period. I feel it’s become a bit of a rare commodity since none of the recent D2Cs had one. The only thing in its favour would be the VIP-exclusivity of the Q&A, but I wouldn’t call that waterproof evidence In essence, unless a leaker (or the next store flyer) confirms it, I’m not expecting it