BrickBob Studpants

*pitchfork sharpening and torch-oiling intensify*

I can’t recall if this has already been discussed or not, but could it be that the CMF series and the DA D2C set will both be revealed during the Q&A event? Sure, the announcement clearly references DA and nothing else, but this is the first reveal event of its kind and there are thus no established rules concerning what they will or won‘t show Sure, you could argue that one may steal the spotlight from the other, but that would probably happen anyway given how close to another the reveals have to be. If they really worried about that, they already would‘ve pulled back the curtain on the CMF series that‘s out of the bag halfway-through anyway

Rosa Lee Teabag is not included?! Not buying it, 0/10, my disappointment is immeasurable and my day is ruined

Well, disappointment always depends on the expectations you have I for one didn’t see the JP D2C coming, but ended up loving it. The recent Helicarrier is a good set IMO as long as you don’t compare it to the MCU version, which a lot of people probably did in their expectations. As for DA, I don’t really see a way for it to be disappointing, unless it’s just a gigantic ice cream parlor with Harry & Fortescue as the only minifigs

Leaving off Gringotts would be an incredibly bad move though As I’ve said before, a 400$ DA needs to be as complete as possible. You can’t expect customers to buy a set like that with one of the most iconic and important parts missing and for them to patiently wait 9 months to buy it separately That’s like selling a UCS Millennium Falcon without the cockpit and then releasing it separately 9 months later

How about Lucius as a counterpart to Draco from S1? I know that Lucius has good chances to appear in DA, but I have my doubts they’ll want such an important character to stay exclusive to a 400$ set. Same goes for Lockhart, who could fill an entire CMF by himself with all of his costume variants

They kinda shot themselves in the foot by calling it „Knights of Ren Transport Ship” rather than the Night Buzzard I never got why they rarely use the proper ship names, which are way cooler than the generic terms they use. I mean, a little kid may not know what a “Soulless One” is if you ask them, but when they look a the flashy ship on the box, they immediately know what it is and don’t pay any attention to the name to the side of it Maybe it’s not for the kids’ sake but rather for the sake of their non-afficionado parents or retailers so they know what they’re buying / ordering Can’t wait for the Invisible Hand, should it ever get made, to be named “Grievous’ command ship” or “Dooku’s flaming coffin”

That‘d be a good one! ...except people don‘t always agree which are the best minifigs In regular series, the most popular ones are usually (historical-themed) army-builders while the popularity of a licensed CMF is often determined by the popularity of their counterpart in the source material. „Best“ is not that useful of a metric I‘m afraid What we‘d need for that is a scoring system like the one @just2good uses, but on a much larger scale. And even then, people tend to score something in comparison to other things, so the ratings the 9 we know of would get right now are not necessarily the same ones they‘d get once the rest is unveiled, depending on whether the unknown ones are better or worse

I first thought of that as well, but I agree with @RogueTwo and @Accio Lego, it doesn‘t really fit Hermione and if there‘s one type of LEGO product where a piece like that could easily be introduced, it‘s a CMF series Crud, I forgot about Draco The only version of him I would accept in a CMF series would be his GoF appearance with a ferret as an accessory. Anything else would feel like a wasted spot to me. So we’re down to two interesting minifigs in the worst case scenario (that scenario being Ron, Hermione, another Harry, Draco, a random student and 2 others). In the best case scenario it would still be five interesting minifigs since Ron and Hermione are the only ones among the remaining seven that have to be included no matter what The truth will probably be somewhere in the middle (e.g. Draco being the only other student being included and no second version of Harry)

The winter outfit would be my choice out of these two If they went with that, I could see them creating a new hair-hat mould which would be quite a versatile part I imagine, especially for future Winter Village or City sets. In comparison, I think the other version is a bit too bland for a CMF.

Hagrid would definitely fit in the new-style bag, but it would be a bit of a wasted spot I think, even if he came with Fang. I’d rather see an entirely new character rather than one we already have two versions of

As I‘ve said before, don‘t underestimate how long this process takes Selecting the questions is one thing, answering them another. We also don‘t know how long that event will be and how many questions they ended up picking And it undoubtedly would‘ve lost against any of the competing modular or Ideas sets, just like Hogwarts I think all of the 16 sets that made it into the competition are worthy, but I will never get why the NASA Apollo V made it this far (and may even end up winning, mark my words). Sure, it’s a unique building experience, which I can attest to myself, but I don’t see why that should put it above any of the other 15 entries which are all more appealing in my eyes and are also full of cool techniques AFOLs and space sets, forever a mystery *rant over*

Out of the possible Ron variants, this does seem like one of the most likely options, especially if all members of the trio are based on HBP ...even though there‘s no particularly memorable HBP outfit for Hermione that comes to mind That reminds me that the CMF reveal itself really won‘t be all that spectacular. Of course I‘m excited for it, but out of the 7 unknown ones, two have to be Ron and Hermione and there‘s stille wiggle room for a second version of Harry, just like in the first series. Speaking of which, the lack of random students so far concerns me a bit, so another spot could go to one of them, leaving us with around 3 potentially more exciting characters (Unless you count Neville and Myrtle as random students, which is debatable) I‘m not complaining since the 9 we do know about are all excellent, but when it comes to the reveals, I‘m definitely much more excited for DA

My bad, I confused BAM with B&P in my last post, it‘s BAM-exclusive There are quite a few German bricklinkers who usually offer these parts shortly after they start appearing at LEGO stores, so it shouldn‘t take that long Man, I truly envy people who live in driving distance to a LEGO store. It would take me at least 5-6 hours to get to the nearest ones

Out of these two dates, the 31st makes a lot more sense since TLG don‘t usually reveal stuff on weekends, as @Modal points out However, my money is on the 30th

But... but my beautiful (yet heavily flawed) prediction model Well, we shall see who prevails in the end

Absolutely not. No fake can possibly be this good

That’s what I meant by “better than the alternative” What‘s even funnier to me, as discussed before, is the circumstance that we‘d probably still think it‘s a Marvel series if it hadn‘t been for that leak Sure, a lot of web stores list 71028 as what it is, but a vast majority of them probably saw that leak too since the shops that do list it as „HP Series 2“ are mostly brick-related and thus likely pay attention to such news.

The only thing that bothers me about the CMF reveal is that we’ve already seen more than half of them Sure, it was probably the best leak in the history of our hobby, but it also sort of took away half of the magic of this reveal Still better than the alternative Thanks! Not really, I’m too lazy for that

I was still a bit bored and decided to delve deeper into the issue by calculating a regression model to predict the reveal date (Bayesian btw, so the small sample size was less of an issue if there happen to be any frequentists around here). I calculated the difference between the reveal and release date for every series between now and Series 11 (turns out it was quite hard to find reliable dates prior to S11 ). My model with day of week, license and position as predictors is kinda sucky, but it still converged. The only valid predictor was day of the week, meaning the later in the week, the earlier the reveal. Whether a series was licensed or not had no bearing on the results and the position (meaning whether it’s the first, second or third series in the year) had a negative influence, i.e. the later the series, the later the reveal. If you insert the values of HP S2 back into the regression formula, the reveal should happen between the 24th of July at the earliest and the 6th of August at the latest (DUH). I then calculated another model without the day of week and the estimated date was the 30th of July. Let’s see if that prediction will become true (I’m not too confident since the second model is considerably weaker and explains almost 20% less variance than the other one) Yes, I indeed have nothing better to do

You mean my level of boredom? Hey, it was worth a shot, even if the results are useless Seems like TLG will reveal stuff whenever they feel like it

I got bored and decided to look up when the CMF series since the first WW one were revealed, and this is what I found: WW S1: 27.6.18 (Wednesday) TLM2: 3.1.19 (Thursday) Disney S2: 20.3.19 (Wednesday) S19: 1.8.19 (Thursday) DC: 2.12.19 (Monday) S20: 17.3.20 (Tuesday) Of course nowhere near enough data to infer anything from Sadly though, it is possible we might not see a reveal this week, as S19, the TLM2 series, and the DC series demonstrate it’s not unprecedented for a series to be revealed at the very beginning of a month rather than at the end of the month prior. The biggest anomaly is definitely Disney S2, which might have been a response to the equally early leak (not as spectacularly early as HP S2 mind; that one will be legendary ). Series 20 doesn’t really count since it was technically unveiled a month earlier at the NYTF and its release was April 27th rather than May 1st. Bottom line: expect the unexpected I guess

It’s definitely the same style though: black background with the LEGO logo on the bottom left above a colourful strip of greebling with the set info on it plus the set’s name floating around somewhere in a fancy font I fail to see how the NES boxart is supposed to be different from the other 18+ sets

Sorry for the double-post, but a new black dachshund will be available at B&P soon: https://www.promobricks.de/lego-space-mops-torso-dackel/105648/ It’s adorable

I will forever lament TLG’s decision to create minidoll-ified animal moulds Imagine if they instead used minifig-compatible moulds, just in pastell colours and with cutesy printing for the minidoll themes LEGO animals are stylised either way, no need for stylising something that’s already heavily stylised to begin with