40567 Forest Hideout (GWP)

[Black Feather]

Wow.  Thought it might go faster this time due to all the new sets available, but they must not have made very many.  Hope there’s still some at the store after work.  I was going to buy another 21325 to get it at midnight.  But they raised the price from 150 to 180.  Not paying 20 percent more for a set I already have two of.  So missed out online.  Going to check the store after work and maybe get another 31120 and/or stuff for my kids if it’s still there.  Otherwise, will ask some questions about whether 10305 will be there on the 3 or 8 and leave.  Even I may hold off on the castle without the GWP.  Not going to drop $400 and get nothing.  No GWP.  No double points.  It will be back.  Might not even sell out fast enough to miss the next deal if enough other people are holding off as well.

[woodford86]

I can only hope they set a bunch aside for the castle release, but man who knows. A lot of licensed sets launched this morning so it could just be they sold that much stuff too, I had to sit in the lego "waiting room" for the first time ever but I did get the hideout about 20 minutes past launch.

They've also completely removed the Forest Hideout adverts from the offers page. Not sure if they do that when things go out of stock or if theres maybe a technical glitch? Either way, crazy that it was easy to find on the first run and is gone in a few hours on the second. Doesn't add up.

Edited August 1, 2022 by woodford86

[Follows Closely]

34 minutes ago, SirBlake said:

Understanding that I have no idea how GWP usually works, I’m guessing the forestmen set will come back later this week. That might just be hopeless optimism on my part. 

It is not coming back. Good news for the re-sellers that stocked up last run. 

#legoFail

[BTappel]

Well this is a bummer.  Altho the main reason I wanted this set was for the 2 shields not knowing at the time we do get 1 with the castle.  At least I will still be able to get a few forestmen shields with a few copies of the castle.  And a few of the other 9 shields!  Still excited for release!

[SirBlake]

17 minutes ago, Follows Closely said:

It is not coming back. Good news for the re-sellers that stocked up last run. 

#legoFail

I can accept that, but may I ask, what makes you so certain of this? Previous experience? Inside info? Just pessimistic? (FWIW, pessimism is a perfectly legit reason, lol)

[RichardGoring]

23 minutes ago, SirBlake said:

I can accept that, but may I ask, what makes you so certain of this? Previous experience? Inside info? Just pessimistic? (FWIW, pessimism is a perfectly legit reason, lol)

Previous experience suggests that once it's sold out, it doesn't restock. There are instances of GWPs that don't sell out coming back, either added with no notice a few months later, until they clear the last remaining stock. Or as a re-run, like the Christmas in July GWP each year. 

You are much more likely to get one at a LEGO Store if you can make it to one. I've seen the stores keep the GWP in stock for much longer than the website, typically.

[Follows Closely]

Pessimistic.

1. The offer was "while supplies last", I see no other reason to shut it off.
2. Mention of the offer is gone, and the product page is gone. (search shop.lego.com for 40567)
3. My local store is sold out as well. When I asked they said they "do not expect another shipment".

[BitByBrick]

This gwp may or may not be back. I’m rooting for yes. Unfortunately, if it doesn’t resurface when the castle is released, I will definitely be holding off on purchasing it. Must have something to show for spending $400. I was counting on the gwp to offset the high price. Guess I’ll be saving some money this month. If there is another great gwp or triple vip points (joke) or sale or something else that comes up before Christmas, I may eventually get the castle. By then, however, LEGO may increase the price to $500. 

[woodford86]

12 minutes ago, RichardGoring said:

Previous experience suggests that once it's sold out, it doesn't restock. There are instances of GWPs that don't sell out coming back, either added with no notice a few months later, until they clear the last remaining stock. Or as a re-run, like the Christmas in July GWP each year. 

You are much more likely to get one at a LEGO Store if you can make it to one. I've seen the stores keep the GWP in stock for much longer than the website, typically.

I wonder if they sold more in the first run than we're giving credit for. I know the rumors of it returning in August were already out there before the first run, so that suggests Lego probably know they wanted to run it twice and produced enough for that. In which case it might make sense that sales were so strong in the June run that there just wasn't much left for August. Combined with the sheer number of sets that launched last night....I would assume its over and out.

At the end of the day its a free market and the product was limited supply, we all had our chance. Lego doesn't owe us anything.

Edited August 1, 2022 by woodford86

[Black Feather]

7 minutes ago, Follows Closely said:

Pessimistic.

1. The offer was "while supplies last", I see no other reason to shut it off.
2. Mention of the offer is gone, and the product page is gone. (search shop.lego.com for 40567)
3. My local store is sold out as well. When I asked they said they "do not expect another shipment".

I am convinced and also now guessing about 99 percent chance I come home with empty hands tonight.  If I didn’t live so close probably wouldn’t bother.

Another possibility or more like completely baseless wishful thinking that I am pulling out of my rear.  What if they release it again as specifically tied to the castle like they have done with some past expensive sets that had there own GWP.  Maybe even something new that somehow hasn’t leaked yet…  Yeah.  I don’t believe it either.  But that would be cool.

[Something_Awesome]

I would be shocked if the Hideout did not come back at least as part of an exclusive gift for the castle. While it is great for everyone to have the Forestmen set, imagine, you are a person that bought a castle on August 3rd and you did not even end up with a Forestmen set from either wave 1 or wave 2? OUCH! I mean.... OUCH! That's tragic as far as having Castle-themed nostalgia goes.

Edited August 1, 2022 by Something_Awesome

[Follows Closely]

^ You are such an optimist. And... You can't be both an optimist and a Long Time Fan of LEGO Castle. There has just been too much disappointment over the years.

[RichardGoring]

46 minutes ago, woodford86 said:

I wonder if they sold more in the first run than we're giving credit for. I know the rumors of it returning in August were already out there before the first run, so that suggests Lego probably know they wanted to run it twice and produced enough for that. In which case it might make sense that sales were so strong in the June run that there just wasn't much left for August. Combined with the sheer number of sets that launched last night....I would assume its over and out.

At the end of the day its a free market and the product was limited supply, we all had our chance. Lego doesn't owe us anything.

Absolutely true, but they do a very poor job of managing customer expectations a lot of the time. What is the better situation to be in?

1. You buy a set at 10:00am for $150, knowing that you wanted the set, and get the $150 set.

2. You've heard that LEGO is doing a cool promo that is scheduled for 14 days, but you know that it can sell out, so you decide to buy something on the first day it's available. You buy a set at 10:00am, but the promo is already gone. But they sent you an email about it, and told fan media about it, so they promoted it reasonably well and you were excited. You get your set, but you feel pretty sour about it.

If they knew they had such limited stock, why promote it, and cause negative sentiment? If they wanted it to be a genuine campaign, why not produce more of them. As you say, they owe us nothing, but the perception that LEGO is a great company and worth buying from gets chipped away slightly. And then they increase prices quite dramatically. And then they seem quite corporate about custom minifigs. And then they make Bricks & Pieces worse. And then they a website that can't handle high volumes. And then they do limited run things like the Ferrari book or the Ulysses space probe. Each individual thing is pretty small, really, but it just makes you slightly less inclined to like the company. Some here really seem to hate LEGO. I'm not there (yet), but they do need to be careful about managing expectations better.

(I realize this, especially the list of small, incremental things is very much 'old man yells at cloud', but LEGO are really targeting those old people right now too, so...)

45 minutes ago, Black Feather said:

I am convinced and also now guessing about 99 percent chance I come home with empty hands tonight.  If I didn’t live so close probably wouldn’t bother.

Another possibility or more like completely baseless wishful thinking that I am pulling out of my rear.  What if they release it again as specifically tied to the castle like they have done with some past expensive sets that had there own GWP.  Maybe even something new that somehow hasn’t leaked yet…  Yeah.  I don’t believe it either.  But that would be cool.

Of course they did that with the 40532 taxi GWP and the modulars, so maybe. Maybe...

Edited August 1, 2022 by RichardGoring

[SirBlake]

27 minutes ago, Follows Closely said:

^ You are such an optimist. And... You can't be both an optimist and a Long Time Fan of LEGO Castle. There has just been too much disappointment over the years.

And that right there is why I got this GWP in June. I wasn’t going to count on it still being around when the castle became available. 

[Rjbricks]

Still available in the UK. Wonder if it will in 2 days time.

If it is, I probably won’t be waiting for the pirate gift on the 4th…

[jodawill]

I really appreciate the fact this set was free with a purchase, but I wonder, what would be the harm in actually selling the set in addition to giving them away with purchases? When there's a really special set like this, many people would like to have multiple copies. Yes, it's a great deal to get it for free. But we would love to buy more, and lots of people will miss out when it sells out before the promotion was scheduled to end. Why not produce tons of them and give people the option to pay for them? If they're concerned about people buying less because they'll just buy the GWP outright, they could tell people up front that the set won't be available for purchase for a certain period of time. If you want it now, you have to do the GWP. Otherwise, you'll have to wait a few months. I also question how many people actually buy extra sets solely because of the GWP. If this had been something else, say a Harry Potter GWP, it would not have affected my purchase decision whatsoever, but they'd still send me a set I don't care about. Maybe most of the people who received this GWP didn't even appreciate it.

Of course, people who are merely "collectors" probably love GWPs because of the exclusivity of it. Personally, I don't want anything to be limited. I wish every product was produced in quantities that make it a fair price for everyone who wants it. If I had a button to make any minifigure on Bricklink available at a normal retail price, I'd push it in a heartbeat. I don't like living in a world where my favorite parts are highly limited and valuable, even if I already own enough of them.

[Rjbricks]

As an enticement I’d say it worked pretty well though if they’ve run out in the US already. All those people who spent $150 on something they might not have bought otherwise.

 

slightlu odd they bother advertising a 2 week window though.

[SirBlake]

13 minutes ago, Rjbricks said:

All those people who spent $150 on something they might not have bought otherwise.

That’s certainly how it worked for me. Picked up the new farm set for the animals, and a 4th creator castle. Not sure what I’m going to do with that one. Break into it for parts and two more black falcons or sell it after they retire it. Maybe recoup some of that money. 

[Follows Closely]

20 minutes ago, Rjbricks said:

As an enticement I’d say it worked pretty well though if they’ve run out in the US already. All those people who spent $150 on something they might not have bought otherwise.

I purchased four Medieval Blacksmith sets that I would not have normally purchased. You do what you have to do to get the pieces you want: in this case the shields and black "wood" pieces. I will sell the Blacksmith sets once they are discontinued to recoup my cost plus some.

#evilReseller

[jodawill]

2 minutes ago, Follows Closely said:

I purchased four Medieval Blacksmith sets that I would not have normally purchased. You do what you have to do to get the pieces you want: in this case the shields and black "wood" pieces. I will sell the Blacksmith sets once they are discontinued to recoup my cost plus some.

#evilReseller

And I bought three of the Ford Mustangs because I knew the price was going up. They're not even in stock now, and the price jumped from $150 to $170 last night. I'm going to list mine at $160 on Craigslist so I can walk away with free GWPs. I'm a little nervous about it because it's likely that no one looking on Craigslist will be willing to pay retail price. But that's how I convinced my wife to let me spend that much money.

[woodford86]

26 minutes ago, jodawill said:

And I bought three of the Ford Mustangs because I knew the price was going up. They're not even in stock now, and the price jumped from $150 to $170 last night. I'm going to list mine at $160 on Craigslist so I can walk away with free GWPs. I'm a little nervous about it because it's likely that no one looking on Craigslist will be willing to pay retail price. But that's how I convinced my wife to let me spend that much money.

That wasn't a bad strategy at all.

I ended up buying the Ferrari during the first GWP run and instantly regretted it as I haven't built any of the 1:8's so far. With this price increase maybe I can split the difference and sell it along with the other three. I'm approved for Bricklink selling just haven't done anything with it yet.

[Something_Awesome]

2 hours ago, Follows Closely said:

^ You are such an optimist. And... You can't be both an optimist and a Long Time Fan of LEGO Castle. There has just been too much disappointment over the years.

Touché 

1 hour ago, SirBlake said:

That’s certainly how it worked for me. Picked up the new farm set for the animals, and a 4th creator castle. Not sure what I’m going to do with that one. Break into it for parts and two more black falcons or sell it after they retire it. Maybe recoup some of that money. 

I also ended up buying a farm in June. I've been monitoring the bricklink prices of the animals. Quite steep. So steep, that it totally made sense to buy a farm set to keep sealed for when I need them to also get VIP points AND the Hideout set. As for the 3-in-1 castle, I have two. There is a rebrickable model (I think there is a charge of $10 though) that combines two castles in to one. It is an extremely refined build that retains all the playability. It looks LEGO-official. It is just scaled up. Much better than the free ones that people have been making using three sets. It's not even close. That 2x Castle moc is perhaps my favorite build on Rebrickable. Look in to it. If you're willing to open two of the sets, the $10 is worth it.

1 hour ago, Follows Closely said:

I purchased four Medieval Blacksmith sets that I would not have normally purchased. You do what you have to do to get the pieces you want: in this case the shields and black "wood" pieces. I will sell the Blacksmith sets once they are discontinued to recoup my cost plus some.

#evilReseller

Not only that, but you paid the original price for them (assuming you bought it back in June). Assuming you can "afford" the blacksmiths, it was a great move. I also own four. 1 to open, 1 to keep sealed for life, and the other two to sell down the road potentially. Or to gift to the next generation in my family as an epic birthday present. 

[Follows Closely]

1 hour ago, Something_Awesome said:

...Not only that, but you paid the original price for them (assuming you bought it back in June)...

Yeah. It was a no-brainer.

I am relieved in a way; now I don't need to spend $400 on Wednesday.

[Sir Dano]

Just more proof that TLG needs to start enforcing the "one per customer" rule.

[kermit]

i missed out on the june one because there wasnt any sets that i really wanted but despite being put on a waiting list at midnight i was able to get the speed champions aston martin, another speed champions set, iron man sketch, friends art school , the city chicken coup, the halloween brick-heads and a dots extra set to make the 150 and the GWP  is in warehouse........i really wanted the forest men because i missed out on it in the 80`s .......i wish they would bring back the castle theme but with forest-men to compliment the new castle set