Lord of the Rings Ongoing Discussion

[Altair1]

16 hours ago, Balrogofmorgoth said:

They would consider it a strength towards LOTR in general if they aren’t completely blind. And then test the waters with other types of sets

I agree with all of this

It’s also worth noting that boycotting the LOTR Brickheadz won’t help either. So might as well have them in the LOTR collection

Except BrickHeadz are just too ugly and would not fit at all in my beautiful LOTR collection display :-)

[MAB]

7 hours ago, Balrogofmorgoth said:

Yeah there’s absolutely no obligation to get them but there’s also no obligation not to. I still disagree that it sends that message. When LOTR BH outsell others, sure it may mean more LOTR BH but there’s absolutely no way it won’t also mean lego taking a closer look at the LOTR market. Plus BH may not be interesting to me, but LOTR BH are simply for being LOTR themed, so I don’t mind having them. And I do believe it will still send the message that there is a market for LOTR in general

Do you really think the LOTR Brickheadz are going to outsell Star Wars, Harry Potter and Disney Brickheadz? They will probably outsell the Brickheadz from The Minions Movie and maybe The Spice Girls.

 

[Lordhelmet]

2 hours ago, MAB said:

Do you really think the LOTR Brickheadz are going to outsell Star Wars, Harry Potter and Disney Brickheadz? They will probably outsell the Brickheadz from The Minions Movie and maybe The Spice Girls.

 

Probably not Star Wars but maybe the others in the first wave, that does not seem too far fetched.  Over the lifespan of all of them probably not, but an initial wave has a good shot at the non Star Wars ones.  

 

Lets look at demand (I saw earlier someone made a comment about supply and demand, but supply and demand affects prices).  Lego LOTR is in the top 3-4 in value for mini figure resale prices.  Star Wars runs away with number one by a long shot (based on the most figures in top 100), superheros is second (includes DC+Marvel), and LOTR and HP come in behind that.  Yes supply is low for LOTR (way less supply due to only two years), but the Demand is there for people to spend lots of money on Minifigures driving up prices.  So if that demonstrates there is demand for LOTR lego, the same logic could be applied to Brickheadz, while not as popular as minifigs, brickheadz will never be as popular as minifigs regardless of IP.  So the logic applied is that with low supply of LOTR material (three Brickheadz sets) with demonstrated demand for the IP would indicate that it can compete with HP, Disney and there other media out there (Star Wars could still win this year, but LOTR might win out for one year).  This is also demonstrated that two of the three LOTR sets are backordered, the only Brickheadz to be backordered (Not even the new Star Wars ones are - granted only tusken raider came out).  So I believe in the short term (this year) LOTR could outsell every IP Brickheadz due to lower overall supply (only one years worth) and the overall high demand for LOTR in the aftermarket for sets showing demand for the IP.  Long term it is very unlikely that LOTR Brickheadz would beat out those other Franchises, but I would argue sitting behind Star Wars, HP, Marvel, and Disney is still a worthy spot for a licensed theme given how well those all sell for Lego.  LOTR being a top 5 licensed theme would justify more sets (not just Brickheadz). 

[The_Cook]

You need to be careful with supply and demand. Demand from a small group of fans wishing to complete minifigure collections/build armies does not necessarily translate into the size of demand that would warrant a global production run of a new wave of sets. In business it's necessary to separate desire from logic in order to remain in business.

Someone, somewhere, in the bowels of Lego will have done the math to determine the economics of the situation. Demand can sustain a large, limited production run, set targetted at adult collector who can afford it, but can't sustain a full wave of sets targetted at older-children who have other priorities.

Consider also that Lego has a finite manufacturing capacity, it might be that other properties within their product portfolio are going to be move valuable than LOTR, therefore they will get manufactured and in preference to less valuable properties. It's also worth noting that value is very subjective, some of the recent oddities (as percieved by AFOLs) such as ART, Pianos, Flowers or Phone App Tie-Ins, are becuase there is value in exploring new markets and new sales opportunities to see if there is a new market to expand into. Sometimes the experiment fails, but through scientific method, a no answer tells you what not to do in the future!

Edited January 6, 2023 by The_Cook

[MAB]

1 hour ago, The_Cook said:

You need to be careful with supply and demand. Demand from a small group of fans wishing to complete minifigure collections/build armies does not necessarily translate into the size of demand that would warrant a global production run of a new wave of sets. In business it's necessary to separate desire from logic in order to remain in business.
 

Very true. It is all very well saying people are willing to pay high prices for LOTR minifigs, when the reality is a tiny group are willing to do that. Take a figure like Grima, for example. He has recently gone over £100 (new) on average on BL. But only 13 people worldwide were willing to pay that so far (last six months).

Of course there would be higher demand if he was £5 or £10 or if he was in a £30 set with Saruman. And if they do a range of small sets, is the demand big enough to justify it? Their sales statistics from last time probably indicate no. The prices for minifigs on the secondary market tell them nothing about wider demand. But the sales for 18+ sets for adults will no doubt indicate that was the best route to take.

 

 

[Lordhelmet]

3 hours ago, The_Cook said:

You need to be careful with supply and demand. Demand from a small group of fans wishing to complete minifigure collections/build armies does not necessarily translate into the size of demand that would warrant a global production run of a new wave of sets. In business it's necessary to separate desire from logic in order to remain in business.

Someone, somewhere, in the bowels of Lego will have done the math to determine the economics of the situation. Demand can sustain a large, limited production run, set targetted at adult collector who can afford it, but can't sustain a full wave of sets targetted at older-children who have other priorities.

Consider also that Lego has a finite manufacturing capacity, it might be that other properties within their product portfolio are going to be move valuable than LOTR, therefore they will get manufactured and in preference to less valuable properties. It's also worth noting that value is very subjective, some of the recent oddities (as percieved by AFOLs) such as ART, Pianos, Flowers or Phone App Tie-Ins, are becuase there is value in exploring new markets and new sales opportunities to see if there is a new market to expand into. Sometimes the experiment fails, but through scientific method, a no answer tells you what not to do in the future!

I don’t disagree that some collectors could inflate demand prices.  This is an assumption though that only collectors drive prices up, perhaps a new LOTR show announced a few years ago could have also driven interest up raising prices (lots of variables).  I agree that Lego should have someone crunching the numbers and determining what the real demand is.  Perhaps brickheadz (something not appealing to most 18+ collectors is a way to gauge demand for the IP). None of us know why they are using this strategy which most people agree is not what LOTR fans wanted.  My only thought is there is demand out there, Lego should do a limited test of it with some sets.  Release 4 sets and a battle pack, that will show true demand across the board.

I think we give Lego too much credit for understanding the market.  I know the hulk buster comes up a lot but there have been quite a few misses and missteps in reading the customers by Lego group.  To their credit they have a ton of lines though which overcomes their misses.  At the end of the day they have more data than we do but they still make mistakes frequently.

ultimately this is a pointless argument though.  At the end of the day we want them to release minifigure play scale sets (and maybe some 18+ UCS or Diorama sets).  Unless/until they do we will not know the true demand and can only guess.  Hopefully they do and we can chat here regardless of outcome and just be happy we got some new sets :) .

[Balrogofmorgoth]

2 hours ago, Lordhelmet said:

I don’t disagree that some collectors could inflate demand prices.  This is an assumption though that only collectors drive prices up, perhaps a new LOTR show announced a few years ago could have also driven interest up raising prices (lots of variables).  I agree that Lego should have someone crunching the numbers and determining what the real demand is.  Perhaps brickheadz (something not appealing to most 18+ collectors is a way to gauge demand for the IP). None of us know why they are using this strategy which most people agree is not what LOTR fans wanted.  My only thought is there is demand out there, Lego should do a limited test of it with some sets.  Release 4 sets and a battle pack, that will show true demand across the board.

I think we give Lego too much credit for understanding the market.  I know the hulk buster comes up a lot but there have been quite a few misses and missteps in reading the customers by Lego group.  To their credit they have a ton of lines though which overcomes their misses.  At the end of the day they have more data than we do but they still make mistakes frequently.

ultimately this is a pointless argument though.  At the end of the day we want them to release minifigure play scale sets (and maybe some 18+ UCS or Diorama sets).  Unless/until they do we will not know the true demand and can only guess.  Hopefully they do and we can chat here regardless of outcome and just be happy we got some new sets :) .

I agree with this. And to me, the Brickheadz are still a good sign. We can only wait and see what they do with the IP but for now I’m glad to have official LOTR sets on shelves again, even if they’re only Brickheadz for now

[MAB]

3 hours ago, Lordhelmet said:

Perhaps brickheadz (something not appealing to most 18+ collectors is a way to gauge demand for the IP).

I was under the impression that many brickheadz were both aimed at and bought by adults rather than kids. Not necessarily AFOLs interested in building but more towards adult collectors of "things" that like a bit of LEGO.

[Balrogofmorgoth]

43 minutes ago, MAB said:

I was under the impression that many brickheadz were both aimed at and bought by adults rather than kids. Not necessarily AFOLs interested in building but more towards adult collectors of "things" that like a bit of LEGO.

Probably Funko Pop collectors who also like lego. Never been a fan of those myself

[McMurder_them_softly]

17 minutes ago, Balrogofmorgoth said:

Probably Funko Pop collectors who also like lego. Never been a fan of those myself

Yeah I have always thought of them as LEGOs equivalent to Pops. I don't collect Pops or Brickheadz. So I won't be starting with LOTR, but I do strongly hope for other sets. 

[mtrsteve]

18 minutes ago, Balrogofmorgoth said:

Probably Funko Pop collectors who also like lego. Never been a fan of those myself

Which, the Funko Pops or the Funko Pop collectors? XD

[eldiano]

Help me understand something, I went back to visit my sister in NYC and stopped by the toys r US section in the seventh floor of the Macy’s store, granted I am aware the upcoming LOTR 2023 line so I was shocked for once when I saw these poly bags for sale given how everything for sale there in TRU is recent, the poly bag is Gandalf from Dol Goldur from 2012 and they sold it for 19.99, did I miss something?  Hardly think Toys R Us is getting rid of old stock given how they went out business and they had to stock up on new toys:

I went back on December 27(The picture was taken December 22) and they were all gone at Macy’s.

I went to the fifth avenue LEGO store and asked a Lego rep and they acted like they never seen it before and told me it was a TRU exclusive.  I’m so confused.  

I went to emphasize that each bag was sold 19.99 not the usual 4.99 or so, imagine my shock when the lady at the register told me that price!

Edited January 7, 2023 by eldiano

[MAB]

I'm not surprised if a lego store employee had never heard of it. They seem to turn over staff quite quickly, and so wouldn't know about items from 10 years before.

[mtrsteve]

A slightly disappointing discovery - the LotR brickheads didn't even get a whole page in the January catalog. They only showed one of the three sets in a 1/3 page strip surrounded by Lego store and VIP ads.

Edited January 7, 2023 by mtrsteve

[Megbricks]

1 hour ago, mtrsteve said:

A slightly disappointing discovery - the LotR brickheads didn't even get a whole page in the January catalog. They only showed one of the three sets in a 1/3 page strip surrounded by Lego store and VIP ads.

 

Yeah i was very surprised at this too when I looked at the catalog yesterday. It feels like they said: we have a boring page with only text, let’s just paste this at the top. 

[Legoman123]

The only problem with this theme is that so many of the sets deserve to be D2C's that it's just not doable.  I mean there is Bag End, Tower of Orthanc, Rivendell, Barad-dur, Helms Deep, Golden Hall,  Minas Tirith.  That's just to name the main ones really, without even bringing the Hobbit or series into it.   I'm sure there is a lot more.  

On another note if LOTR is here to stay I would like to see Radagast the Brown's house, that could most definitely be done at system scale. 

I am also praying that Rivendell is minifigure scale, 

[Altair1]

45 minutes ago, Legoman123 said:

The only problem with this theme is that so many of the sets deserve to be D2C's that it's just not doable.  I mean there is Bag End, Tower of Orthanc, Rivendell, Barad-dur, Helms Deep, Golden Hall,  Minas Tirith.  That's just to name the main ones really, without even bringing the Hobbit or series into it.   I'm sure there is a lot more.  

On another note if LOTR is here to stay I would like to see Radagast the Brown's house, that could most definitely be done at system scale. 

I am also praying that Rivendell is minifigure scale, 

The sets needed in priority are those which were not made before: Minas Tirith and the Golden Hall. I am nevertheless looking forward to Rivendell because the Council of Elrond set was too small to pay justice to this iconic location. As for Barad Dur it would be nice in the long run, but I am not in a hurry to add a second big black tower to my collection display :-)

Edited January 8, 2023 by Altair1

[MAB]

52 minutes ago, Legoman123 said:

The only problem with this theme is that so many of the sets deserve to be D2C's that it's just not doable.  I mean there is Bag End, Tower of Orthanc, Rivendell, Barad-dur, Helms Deep, Golden Hall,  Minas Tirith.  That's just to name the main ones really, without even bringing the Hobbit or series into it.   I'm sure there is a lot more.  

On another note if LOTR is here to stay I would like to see Radagast the Brown's house, that could most definitely be done at system scale. 

I am also praying that Rivendell is minifigure scale, 

I am happy with existing Bag End and Helm's Deep, they were not D2C. I prefer to get a general retail size set and decide myself whether I want to buy two or more to go for size, rather than getting an oversized  D2C for everything.

[Legoman123]

Just now, Altair1 said:

The sets needed in priority are those which were not made before: Minas Tirith and the Golden Hall. I am nevertheless looking forward to Rivendell because the Council of Elrond set was too small to pay justice to this iconic location. As for Barad Dur it would be nice in the long run, but I am not in a hurry to add a second big black tower to my collection display :-)

True, they do work at system scale but I just think they would work so much better at a D2C level, but I suppose that could be said for any Lego set in reality.  I think they could do the Golden Hall with relative ease and have a solid interior and exterior for that set to.   

You are one of the lucky ones, I never got to pick up the Tower of Orthanc so for me Barad-dur is actually at the top of my list.  I feel given the way Rings of Power is going that we will see Barad-dur as it will probably play a big part in future seasons.  

Speaking of, how long do you think this theme will run for, and do you think we will in fact get system scale sets? 

Just now, MAB said:

I am happy with existing Bag End and Helm's Deep, they were not D2C. I prefer to get a general retail size set and decide myself whether I want to buy two or more to go for size, rather than getting an oversized  D2C for everything.

I think just the way lord of the rings is having d2c's for the sets I mentioned would work well because of the architecture on the inside and out, but I know in my head that this is just wishful thinking as Lego are never going to do that unless the theme carries on like SW, which is highly unlikely. 

Edited January 8, 2023 by Legoman123

[Altair1]

25 minutes ago, MAB said:

I am happy with existing Bag End and Helm's Deep, they were not D2C. I prefer to get a general retail size set and decide myself whether I want to buy two or more to go for size, rather than getting an oversized  D2C for everything.

Could not agree more :-)

[Altair1]

52 minutes ago, Legoman123 said:

True, they do work at system scale but I just think they would work so much better at a D2C level, but I suppose that could be said for any Lego set in reality.  I think they could do the Golden Hall with relative ease and have a solid interior and exterior for that set to.   

You are one of the lucky ones, I never got to pick up the Tower of Orthanc so for me Barad-dur is actually at the top of my list.  I feel given the way Rings of Power is going that we will see Barad-dur as it will probably play a big part in future seasons.  

Speaking of, how long do you think this theme will run for, and do you think we will in fact get system scale sets? 

 

Well as mentioned in previous exchanges, for now I prefer to keep my hopes down and I do not expect anything else besides the upcoming Rivendell D2C. But if the sales of that set are really good, MAYBE Lego will realize that there is a demand for a real reviving of the theme and make more sets. I personally prefer miniscale than microscale, but will buy anything branded LOTR as long as it isn't BrickHeadz :-)

Edited January 8, 2023 by Altair1

[Alexandrina]

1 hour ago, Altair1 said:

Well as mentioned in previous exchanges, for now I prefer to keep my hopes down and I do not expect anything else besides the upcoming Rivendell D2C. But if the sales of that set are really good, MAYBE Lego will realize that there is a demand for a real reviving of the theme and make more sets. I personally prefer miniscale than microscale, but will buy anything branded LOTR as long as it isn't BrickHeadz :-)

I don't think Lego are going to sit on their haunches and wait for the D2C's sales figures to come in before deciding to move forward. Maybe they'll not 100% lock-in more sets until then, but I wouldn't be surprised if they've already been quietly planning some possibles/have some designers doing a bit of work. It takes time to make a set, and what they absolutely don't want is for the D2C hype and the LotR hype to die down again before they can get their regular sets out.

Especially if they're planning on following the D2C with a regular range of playsets - for those to be a success they'll need buy-in from kids, not just AFOLs who in some cases already have half the characters from the last range.

[Alegrispa]

On 1/6/2023 at 6:14 PM, Balrogofmorgoth said:

Probably Funko Pop collectors who also like lego. Never been a fan of those myself

On 1/6/2023 at 6:33 PM, mtrsteve said:

Which, the Funko Pops or the Funko Pop collectors? XD

Ha, totally!

Seriously folks. The only message LEGO would get by all of us buying those ugly sets would be "We want more Brickheadz!"

Edited January 8, 2023 by Alegrispa

[Alegrispa]

35 minutes ago, Atrius Kain said:

I think sets will release in January 2024 because of the upcoming LotR anime film from WB. Also, the new owners of LotR spoke on how they want to make LotR a big IP like Marvel and Star Wars. In 2024 we should also get RoP season 2.

Now it brings us to the question, is Lego gonna choose between let's say DnD and LotR and their medieval fantasy theme they will focus in the future?

You're taking some far jumps there.

But regarding that question, if it came down to it the smarter choice for LEGO would probably be to go with DnD. I'm not into table top games myself, but the market is huge and they've tried to get a piece of it before with Heroica. Actually working with the DnD license makes it a lot easier to break into the community.

Personally I'd prefer LotR, but as I've said before, it's not in the Zeitgeist right now, not in a way that sells toys.

(Not that I think it will come down to it. The Ideas DnD set definitely seems like more of a test run for a potential theme, and besides the Brickheadz and the D2C, we simply don't have any idea what the current plans for LotR are)

Edited January 8, 2023 by Alegrispa

[Legoman123]

Just now, Alegrispa said:

You're taking some far jumps there.

But regarding that question, if it came down to it the smarter choice for LEGO would probably be to go with DnD. I'm not into table top games myself, but the market is huge and they've tried to get a piece of it before with Heroica. Actually working with the DnD license makes it a lot easier to break into the community.

Personally I'd prefer LotR, but as I've said before, it's not in the Zeitgeist right now, not in a way that sells toys.

(Not that I think it will come down to it. The Ideas DnD set definitely seems like more of a test run for a potential theme, and besides the Brickheadz and the D2C, we simply don't have any idea what the current plans for LotR are)

Very true, but what an odd thing to do to bring back a licence for 2 brickheadz and a D2C.  Personally I think the licence will be back with more as we have The Rings of Power show with five seasons confirmed.