Secret Enemies - Day Four

[Dragonfire]

If Ralph passed a town card to Anne and she discarded it, yes, she's scum. It doesn't automatically follow that Joshua is scum, Anne could be the Godfather, who, IIRC, investigates as town. In that case, Ralph should investigate Joshua.

Because either Joshua is town and he accidentally picked the GF and so we'd be certain that Anne is the GF which means we can lock her out.

Or Joshua is scum and lied about Anne being town, Anne is probably the GF but not certainly so.

But if Anne had no choice about what she played, she could well be town and it is better to use the investigation someone who we can install as TCC chair today and leave Anne to be tested next time she's TCC and she actually has a choice about what to play.

Either way, we just have different valid reasons for suggesting what we did. Thanks for explaining your thinking.

Now I see where our thinking diverges. I wasn't aware that the Godfather would investigate as town in this style of game. Bob, could you please clarify whether this is the case?

If the Godfather does investigate as town, then yes, your suggestion is more valid than mine.

[fhomess]

The analysis.

Day one

Deck holds 11scum 6town

Mayor draws 2scum 1town

Discards a scum

TCC plays a town

Day two

Deck holds 9scum 5town

Mayor draws* 3scum

Discards a scum*

TCC plays a scum

Day 3

Deck holds 6scum 5town

Mayor draws* 2scum 1town

Discards a town

TCC plays a scum

It's also possible day two was a town discard and day three a scum, but either way it's the same deck for day four.

Day 4

Deck holds 4scum 4town

Chance of 3town draw 1/14

Chance of 2town1scum draw 6/14

Chance of 1town2scum draw 6/14

Chance of 3scum draw 1/14

Are you trying to deliberately mislead us by reporting the numbers in contradiction to what was posted? Are you in cahoots with Ralph and know that he got a town card which was discarded despite the fact that he reported 3 mafia cards?

[Dragonfire]

Are you trying to deliberately mislead us by reporting the numbers in contradiction to what was posted? Are you in cahoots with Ralph and know that he got a town card which was discarded despite the fact that he reported 3 mafia cards?

I'm pretty sure Edward is assuming that since one of Ralph and Joshua is mafia, they probably discarded a town card. He also said this:

It's also possible day two was a town discard and day three a scum, but either way it's the same deck for day four.

Even so, it's also highly possible that whichever one of our previous two mayors is mafia isn't lying and actually did receive three mafia cards, in which case Edward is mistaken in his analysis. I don't think it's a definite scumtell, but it does raise questions as to how much Edward actually knows.

[fhomess]

I don't think that was clear and I don't think that assigning it to one of them makes much sense, either. Unless you happen to know who was lying. The way it was reported is misleading at best.

It seems extremely unlikely that both Joshua and Ralph are scum but it's clear that one of them is. We can't trust either of them at this point, and therefore, I don't feel comfortable with Anne in a position of power in the future either. The one person who comes out of this looking slightly better is Robert, who was the TCC under Joshua. Despite passing a Mafia card, it seems unlikely that Joshua would both pick him and Anne to clear.

All of this makes me feel even better about Lindsey and Patricia as the current council.

Those who have yet to be on a council: Scott, Erik, Michael, Christina (me).

[Bob]

Now I see where our thinking diverges. I wasn't aware that the Godfather would investigate as town in this style of game. Bob, could you please clarify whether this is the case?

If the Godfather does investigate as town, then yes, your suggestion is more valid than mine.

The Godfather is investigated as scum.

[Actor Builder]

The Godfather is investigated as scum.

Aha! So I did do the right thing! I think.

[Dragonfire]

I don't think that was clear and I don't think that assigning it to one of them makes much sense, either. Unless you happen to know who was lying. The way it was reported is misleading at best.

It seems extremely unlikely that both Joshua and Ralph are scum but it's clear that one of them is. We can't trust either of them at this point, and therefore, I don't feel comfortable with Anne in a position of power in the future either. The one person who comes out of this looking slightly better is Robert, who was the TCC under Joshua. Despite passing a Mafia card, it seems unlikely that Joshua would both pick him and Anne to clear.

All of this makes me feel even better about Lindsey and Patricia as the current council.

Those who have yet to be on a council: Scott, Erik, Michael, Christina (me).

I think that whichever of the two is scum, we're in quite a good position as town right now. If Ralph is town, then we've just foiled the scum's plans to install their Godfather as a trusted townie - I would definitely not advise putting Anne up as TCC again. If Ralph is scum, he won't have achieved the result he intended, since we're not either writing Joshua off as scum or trusting Ralph.

Aha! So I did do the right thing! I think.

If you are town, then yes, you did.

[jluck]

The problem with all this is we now seem to have nothing. We don't trust the investigation of Anne, we don't trust the analysis of the cards that remain, and we don't trust the previous councils. So what do we have?

[fhomess]

The problem with all this is we now seem to have nothing. We don't trust the investigation of Anne, we don't trust the analysis of the cards that remain, and we don't trust the previous councils. So what do we have?

You could also state whether or not you agree with the analysis to this point or have any new thoughts to consider. That would be helpful.

Just to be clear, I disagree with the first sentence in your post.

[Dragonfire]

The problem with all this is we now seem to have nothing. We don't trust the investigation of Anne, we don't trust the analysis of the cards that remain, and we don't trust the previous councils. So what do we have?

Well Edward's analysis is quite informative, actually. If both Ralph and Joshua, regardless of alignment, received three mafia cards, then there is a total of 5 town cards and 3 mafia cards remaining in the deck. If whoever is scum out of the two of them discarded a town card, then there are 4 town and 4 mafia cards remaining. Either way, another draw of three mafia cards is now exceedingly unlikely, and so unless both of our new government are scum, it's likely that a town policy will be passed today.

And this game was never going to be a regular mafia game. We literally can't trust anyone and I think that was the whole idea (alignments of the dead not being revealed, and possible scum getting investigations).

[Bob]

A town policy has been passed today!

Currently, there are two town policies and two mafia policies in play. Both the Mayor and TCC may now post in this thread.

[Khscarymovie4]

I was given 2 town cards and 1 mafia card. I discarded the mafia card.

[Chromeknight]

So in this case I'm wrong.

And yes, if Anne is scum or GF, Joshua must be. (Though the inverse is not the case)

As for what I do or don't know with the analysis, I made a reasonable guess. And indicated how I reached the numbers for day four, albeit not clearly enough it would seem.

The chance of both mayors on days 2 and 3 getting 3 scum cards is somewhere in the order of 2%.

And Ralph's investigation on Joshua is evidence at least one of them is scum (either by investigation result or by lying about result) so likely to have lied about what they got.

Sure. We can assume everyone in days 2 and 3 are lying. (I know neither Lindsey or I lied about day 1)

But that leads to some abysmal numbers for day 4 and very little hope for us to pull out a town win.

Let's look at the cases.

Assume Joshua is town.

Robert is 1in3 chance of being scum (starting odds)

Anne is town and cannot be GF

Joshua drew three scum cards, Robert saw two of them.

Ralph must be scum (lying about investigation)

Ralph drew at least two scum cards since Anne, who is town reports two.

Odds of the third card being town are slightly better than it being scum.

So. One assumed town. One confirmed town. One assumed scum and one with no new information.

Assume Ralph is town.

Joshua is scum (by investigation)

Robert is chosen by someone who knows his alignment

Given the odds favoured at least one town card draw, he could have been chosen to set up as townie.

If Joshua tossed a town card, Robert is town, if he tossed a scum card, Robert is scum. This likely holds even if Joshua unluckily drew three scum cards meaning he couldn't set up Robert as townie looking.

Anne is either the GF or a regular scum, set up by Joshua to be townie looking,

Ralph is town (by assumption)

He drew three scum cards also. (Long odds!) since he wouldn't lie about what he got.

Anne is scum and again is dudded by being handed two scum cards.

So. One assumed town, one confirmed scum, one assumed scum and one who might be scum.

The question is. Did a town card get tossed by Joshua or Ralph. Odds say there was, but who did it ties into who is scum or not.

Also. Best case above we've identified three scum. We know between Ralph and Joshua we have at least one. This means there's likely one in the list Christina gives; her, Scott, Erik and Michael.

Yay. Town policy pass.

Now, if we could trust that both Ralph and Joshua tossed scum cards, we guarantee a town win. Since we could just elect no further governments and just pass the remaining three town and two scum policies for a town win.

But I don't trust both at once. So we will go into a reshuffle of the deck.

[jluck]

Ive added the governments name to the earlier analysis and my own thoughts are in bold.

Day one

Deck holds 11scum 6town

Mayor (Enward-chromeknight) draws 2scum 1town-Why are we assuming that Edward told the truth here? if he got 2 town and 1 scum it'd benefit a scum player to lie to through off card numbers in future rounds.

Discards a scum

TCC (Lindsey-KH) plays a town Lindsey looks town to me, but Edward and Lindsey are not both scum most certainly

Day two

Deck holds 9scum 5town we think

Mayor (Joshua-peanuts (scum?)) draws* 3scum this has a likelyhood of (9c3*5c0)/(14c3)=3/13 or 23%

Discards a scum*

TCC (Robert-dragonfire) plays a scum

Day 3

Deck holds 6scum 5town

Mayor (Ralph-actor builder) draws* 2scum 1town you're assuming this is the case, but it's possible Joshua is scum, lied about receiving 3 scum cards, and Ralph did get 3 scum cards. If Joshua (who we're told was investigated as scum) lied, then Ralph could have gotten 3 scum with a probability of nearly (7c3*4c0)/(11c3)= 10%. I think this indicates that it's more probable that Joshua was telling the truth, but it's still quite possible that Joshua lied and Ralph didn't. One thing seems certain, they aren't both town as that probability is nearly 5% that Ralph pulls 3 scum given that Joshua also pulled 3 scum cards.

Discards a town

TCC (Anne-mediumsnowman (town?)) plays a scum i think we can trust Anne was given 2 scum cards. It's not guaranteed but it feels more likely than not. I don't have numbers on this one.

Day 4

Mayor (Lindsey-KH)

TCC (pat-Tariq)

So there's an expansion using the earlier analysis. I anxiously await today's play.

Sorry, cross posted.

[Chromeknight]

Well. I know I told the truth. But yes, you should weigh the possibility that I didn't.

But if you assume I'm scum, I'd be in league with either Joshua or Ralph. Do you think that's the case? Really?

[jluck]

Well. I know I told the truth. But yes, you should weigh the possibility that I didn't.

But if you assume I'm scum, I'd be in league with either Joshua or Ralph. Do you think that's the case? Really?

Truthfully, unlikely, but not unheard of. Bussing is a fairly common scum tactic. But if I were to make a guess, I'm leaning town with you. I'm also town lean on Lindsey. She's been involved in 2 successful town policies and in both cases (according to the claims) she could have passed a scum policy. IMO, we should continue putting Lindsey and Anne in whenever possible.

[fhomess]

I'm willing to trust Lindsey moving forward. Patricia didn't get a chance to prove anything, which is both nice and unfortunate.

I have to say, I find the percentages informative but ultimately distracting. No matter how low the odds, there is always a chance, and scum only lie when its beneficial. The point isn't what are the odds so much as the fact that we know one of Ralph or Joshua is scum. I'm happy to assume that whichever one of them is scum was lying and the other was telling the truth, but I'm open to the idea that they really did get 3 scum policies each even if they are scum. I don't much feel like trusting either of them with a position of power going forward as I don't know how we will figure out for sure which one it is in a way we can trust.

Michael, I agree that Anne was certainly given 2 scum policies, but that doesn't mean anything about her alignment or what cards were discarded. Since either Ralph or Joshua are scum, Anne's alignment is in doubt.

- If Joshua is scum, then Anne is probably scum, too. Ralph is therefore town and really did get 3 scum policies. Joshua may have tossed a town policy.

- If Ralph is scum, then Anne is probably town. Joshua really got 3 scum policies and Anne really did get 2 scum policies. Ralph may have tossed a town policy.

I don't think we can read much into Robert with either of these.

Edward, we can't pass the remaining 5 policies by electing no one repeatedly. Once there are less than 3 policies in the deck, the discards get shuffled back in.

[Tariq j]

I would like to confirm what Lindsay said, I received two town cards and obviously picked a town one.

[Tariq j]

I think even if Joshua was scum that doesn't necessarily make Anne scum too. Confirming a townie in public and thus getting a trustworthy TCC is very helpful to the town, making Joshua look town. On the other hand however, the scum know who the godfather I but can't contact him, and seeing as we now know the godfather investigates as scum, perhaps (assuming Joshua was scum) him investigating Anne and making her look town was a subtle hint that he was scum and wanted Anne (the gf) to contact him?

[Chromeknight]

I have to say, I find the percentages informative but ultimately distracting. No matter how low the odds, there is always a chance, and scum only lie when its beneficial. The point isn't what are the odds so much as the fact that we know one of Ralph or Joshua is scum.

Yep. There comes a point where we have more to go on than thoughts about the policy deck. You're right.

But we can an should connect what we know about Ralph and Joshua to the bigger picture. Who supports one more than the other? Who still likes Anne? Who is violently opposed to Anne now and why?

For town to win we need to look at who votes quick, moves things along too quick to discuss and who doesn't give good reasons for what they do.

Edward, we can't pass the remaining 5 policies by electing no one repeatedly. Once there are less than 3 policies in the deck, the discards get shuffled back in.

Ah ok. The historical accounts I've playedread shuffle back in only when needed. ie. If there are two cards left in the deck and three need to be drawn, the last two were handed over and a third was given from the shuffled pile.

Perhaps GuvBob can confirm.

[fhomess]

A little more research suggests the deck shuffling is inconsistently applied. Bob?

[Dragonfire]

Assume Ralph is town. Joshua is scum (by investigation) Robert is chosen by someone who knows his alignment Given the odds favoured at least one town card draw, he could have been chosen to set up as townie. If Joshua tossed a town card, Robert is town, if he tossed a scum card, Robert is scum. This likely holds even if Joshua unluckily drew three scum cards meaning he couldn't set up Robert as townie looking. Anne is either the GF or a regular scum, set up by Joshua to be townie looking, Ralph is town (by assumption) He drew three scum cards also. (Long odds!) since he wouldn't lie about what he got. Anne is scum and again is dudded by being handed two scum cards. So. One assumed town, one confirmed scum, one assumed scum and one who might be scum. The question is. Did a town card get tossed by Joshua or Ralph. Odds say there was, but who did it ties into who is scum or not. Also. Best case above we've identified three scum. We know between Ralph and Joshua we have at least one. This means there's likely one in the list Christina gives; her, Scott, Erik and Michael.

I think this is quite misleading, especially the bit about me. You say this:

Best case above we've identified three scum.

I take it that you're referring to myself (along with Anne and Joshua). Yet earlier you said this:

If Joshua tossed a town card, Robert is town, if he tossed a scum card, Robert is scum.

One assumed town, one confirmed scum, one assumed scum and one who might be scum.

You're clearly taking the opinion here that I might be scum and it's essentially a 50:50. So why did you say that "best case scenario, we've identified three scum" when one cannot possibly identify my alignment in this case? We'll never know whether Joshua discarded a scum or a town card, so how could you ever be "sure" I was scum?

As Christina said earlier, this is misguided at best and deliberately misleading at worst.

Ive added the governments name to the earlier analysis and my own thoughts are in bold. Day one Deck holds 11scum 6town Mayor (Enward-chromeknight) draws 2scum 1town-Why are we assuming that Edward told the truth here? if he got 2 town and 1 scum it'd benefit a scum player to lie to through off card numbers in future rounds.

Good thinking. I'm not assuming anything at this point.

Truthfully, unlikely, but not unheard of. Bussing is a fairly common scum tactic. But if I were to make a guess, I'm leaning town with you. I'm also town lean on Lindsey. She's been involved in 2 successful town policies and in both cases (according to the claims) she could have passed a scum policy. IMO, we should continue putting Lindsey and Anne in whenever possible.

I agree with you on Lindsey, but not on Anne. How can you still advocate installing Anne as TCC again when she could very probably be the Godfather, which is exactly what the scum want! Ping.

Since either Ralph or Joshua are scum, Anne's alignment is in doubt. - If Joshua is scum, then Anne is probably scum, too. Ralph is therefore town and really did get 3 scum policies. Joshua may have tossed a town policy. - If Ralph is scum, then Anne is probably town. Joshua really got 3 scum policies and Anne really did get 2 scum policies. Ralph may have tossed a town policy.

If Ralph is scum, then Anne is definitely town.

I think even if Joshua was scum that doesn't necessarily make Anne scum too. Confirming a townie in public and thus getting a trustworthy TCC is very helpful to the town, making Joshua look town. On the other hand however, the scum know who the godfather I but can't contact him, and seeing as we now know the godfather investigates as scum, perhaps (assuming Joshua was scum) him investigating

Anne and making her look town was a subtle hint that he was scum and wanted Anne (the gf) to contact him?

Why would a scum risk confirming a townie when town only has two investigations and there's no guarantee a scum will be mayor again? It's a perfect opportunity to "confirm" the godfather as town and help scum win.

Yep. There comes a point where we have more to go on than thoughts about the policy deck. You're right. But we can an should connect what we know about Ralph and Joshua to the bigger picture. Who supports one more than the other? Who still likes Anne? Who is violently opposed to Anne now and why?

It seems to me as if the majority of people support Joshua over Ralph and still like Anne, which I find disturbing - it ought to be a 50:50 thing...

[Umbra-Manis]

It seems to me as if the majority of people support Joshua over Ralph and still like Anne, which I find disturbing - it ought to be a 50:50 thing...

I don't think we should support any of them. All three are in doubt, and we aren't losing any players. We still have four players who haven't held any powers yet, plus patricia, who had no choice so her alignment is unclear.

[Dragonfire]

I don't think we should support any of them. All three are in doubt, and we aren't losing any players. We still have four players who haven't held any powers yet, plus patricia, who had no choice so her alignment is unclear.

Exactly. The only person I think is town right now is Lindsey. Tomorrow, I'd suggest putting someone completely new in as TCC, like Christina, you, Michael or Scott (where is Scott, by the way?)

[Tariq j]

Why would a scum risk confirming a townie when town only has two investigations and there's no guarantee a scum will be mayor again? It's a perfect opportunity to "confirm" the godfather as town and help scum win.

It was a possibility I was suggesting since we have to look at all the possible options.

Ultimately, it all boils down what win condition the scum are aiming for. According to the rules there are two, if they're going for the "pass 6 mafia cards" then they could very well just confirm a townie to make themselves look trustworthy, there's no immediate need for a godfather.

If they're going for the second win condition then yes, I agree they would want to confirm the GF as town. The scum neeed the godfather to achieve that win condition and would need to make him look town.

Exactly. The only person I think is town right now is Lindsey. Tomorrow, I'd suggest putting someone completely new in as TCC, like Christina, you, Michael or Scott (where is Scott, by the way?)

I think Scott should be the next TCC, all this discussion about the investigation result has allowed him to slip out of the spotlight completely.

Speaking of which, I've noticed all of us have been discussing all the possibilities about who may or may not be scum, yet neither Ralph, Joshua, nor Anne have actually said anything about it.

Exactly. The only person I think is town right now is Lindsey. Tomorrow, I'd suggest putting someone completely new in as TCC, like Christina, you, Michael or Scott (where is Scott, by the way?)

I think Scott should be the next TCC, all this discussion about the investigation result has allowed him to slip out of the spotlight completely.

Speaking of which, I've noticed all of us have been discussing all the possibilities about who may or may not be scum, yet neither Ralph, Joshua, nor Anne have actually said anything about it.