Secret Enemies - Day Four

[Bob]

SECRET ENEMIES

Day Four: Dirty Set Pieces

It was early in the morning, and a dark shadowy figure was strolling on the streets.

"What? No, I'm just on the way to the grocery store." said Scott Howell

Oh.

By the docks, another shadowy figure walked.

"Huh? I'm just out for my morning walk."

Oh.

Elsewhere, a third figure was standing outside the fire station, up to no good.

"What do you mean up to no good?" Erik Kelly asked. "I'm on duty waiting for calls.

Oh.

"And please get a small little vacuum or something. This is just embarrassing."

"Reminder that you need to pass five town cards and the scum need six mafia cards. So far, they're in the lead!"

Everyone gasped.

"Also, I need the Mayor from yesterday to tell me who he wants to investigate. He neglected to tell me yesterday. He is supposed to say who he wants to investigate publicly here."

Characters (11)

Lindsey Green - Khscarymovie4

Ralph Brooks - Actor Builder

Joshua Sutton - Peanuts

Scott Howell - Jackjonespaw

Erik Kelly - Umbra-Manis

Patricia Davis - Tariq J

Anne Martin - Mediumsnowman

Michael Wright - Jluck

Edward Cook - Chromeknight

Christina Phillips - Fhomess

Robert Butler - Dragonfire

Out of Town:

Betsy Bowers - Forresto

DAY FOUR

Today's Mayor is Lindsey Green / Khscarymovie4 (luck of the draw, hopefully he shows up on time.)

He must pick a Town Council Chair and nominate that person publicly here. Then you will have 24 hours to approve his government by voting either Yes or No. He should do so ASAP without delay. If he does not within 24 hours from now, it will be a failed government and a new mayor will be selected.

Remember, if three governments fail in a row (that would be 72 hours theoretically - three 24 hour periods), then the top card is flipped and that policy is enacted.

Edited August 5, 2016 by Bob

[Khscarymovie4]

I'm here. I could wait for Ralph to investigate someone and then maybe nominate them, but I don't trust Ralph and that would delay the game even more. So I'm going to nominate someone who has not been the TCC or Mayor. I nominate Patricia Davis (Tariq). I also vote YES to this. We will be able to get information on someone we don't have any on, and to make things a little more interesting for them.

[Tariq j]

Well, I trust myself, I'm not sure about Ralph though. In any case I vote YES

[Dragonfire]

I don't see anything wrong with voting Yes to this, so I will do just that.

Ralph, get in here ASAP! If you did not receive three scum cards, then please check Patricia or Lindsey. If you did, then please check Joshua.

[Chromeknight]

I don't see anything wrong with voting Yes to this, so I will do just that.

Ralph, get in here ASAP! If you did not receive three scum cards, then please check Patricia or Lindsey. If you did, then please check Joshua.

Other way around.

If Ralph got a town card and passed it Anne, that's when he should investigate Joshua.

If he (truly) got three scum cards, then Anne playing a scum card is a wash and her investigation will probably stand, that's when we need new info.

As it is. I vouch for Lindsey.

Yes, I know she could be a scum who played a town policy and is simply biding her time or the GF but I deem either unlikely. So I'm happy to count Lindsey town.

[mediumsnowman]

Yes. I see no problems with this government, and another round with Lindsey should help us confirm her alignment.

I really hope Ralph shows up soon...

[Tariq j]

If he (truly) got three scum cards, then Anne playing a scum card is a wash and her investigation will probably stand, that's when we need new info.

Not necessarily, Anne could still be scum but was fortunate enough to get three scum cards thus making it look like she had no choice (and passing a mafia policy at the same time)

But I could be wrong, ot all depends on what Ralph says.

[Actor Builder]

Ah! I'm late! I have been oh so busy!

I am investigating Joshua as we speak, as per the previous requests!

[fhomess]

Ralph... pay attention to what's going on! What were the three cards you were dealt yesterday?

[jluck]

Ah! I'm late! I have been oh so busy!

I am investigating Joshua as we speak, as per the previous requests!

Unfortunately, until Ralph is more forthcoming with literally everything of value from yesterday, I don't feel comfortable with a yes or no vote. We're getting a little deeper in now and I feel the Mafia have to have influenced this game far more than we're taking into account. We keep taking probabilities of cards remaining on trusting what the mayor has told us, but someone has had to have lied by now I'd assume.

[Actor Builder]

AHH! I'm sorry! My weekend was stuffed with stuffings!

I got the three Mafia Cards, and I passed two on!

I just investigated Joshua/Peanuts and I was informed that he is Mafia!

What else do I need to add? I got behind and now I'm flustered and befuddled! Am I missing anything else?

[mediumsnowman]

It's very unlikely that Ralph indeed received three cards as proven by the stats a bit of the ways back.

I think he's lying about Joshua as he correctly investigated me to find my townieness of towns, and this is just a attempt to discredit the only cleared townie we have (me). Since there is no way to lynch one of them to determine who is lying (I don't think there's any other way to publicly show alignment, right, and there's no lynching here?)

As no alignment can be determined it's a fairly safe gambit.

Sorry if my thoughts are a bit rambling, it's late and I'm on mobile. I'll try to refine them in the morning.

[Tariq j]

there's no lynching here?)

I think if we pass 4 mafia policies the mayor can put forward a name to kill and then we discuss, and of we pass 5 he can do the same.

I'm thinking this also could be a lie. Joshua's government passed a mafia policy so it would be easy for another player to "investigate" him as scum. Yet there is a small part of me that thinks he could be telling the truth. The probability of a 3 scum combination isn't impossible after all. Just very unlikely.

[Dragonfire]

Either way, it's almost impossible that both yesterday and the day before involved the mayor being given three Mafia policies. Someone is scum between Ralph and Joshua, and they almost certainly discarded a town policy.

If Joshua is scum, it doesn't necessarily make Anne scum, but she could be the Godfather

[Peanuts]

AHH! I'm sorry! My weekend was stuffed with stuffings!

I got the three Mafia Cards, and I passed two on!

I just investigated Joshua/Peanuts and I was informed that he is Mafia!

What else do I need to add? I got behind and now I'm flustered and befuddled! Am I missing anything else?

Well, you are lying. With the stack being what it is, it was already very unlikely that you should be dealt three scum cards, and this proves to me you probably discarded a town card.

It's very unlikely that Ralph indeed received three cards as proven by the stats a bit of the ways back.

I think he's lying about Joshua as he correctly investigated me to find my townieness of towns, and this is just a attempt to discredit the only cleared townie we have (me). Since there is no way to lynch one of them to determine who is lying (I don't think there's any other way to publicly show alignment, right, and there's no lynching here?)

I think it makes sense. Since I got my investigation result, we could have installed you as TCC every other day, thus drstically reducing the chance for the scum to pass a scum policy. It's only logical for them to try and cast doubt on it. I'm starting to wonder whether I was right about Robert when I chose him as TCC. He asked Ralph to investigate me in public. It would have been really scummy if Ralph had just investigated me on his own responsibilty, but Robert asked him to, allowing him to get a scum result on me and casting doubt on the only cleared townie. It is really convenient.

We will get the ability to kill people once we pass four or five scum policies. Bob, will we learn the allegiance of the killed?

[Tariq j]

Hmm, Ralph, were you planning to investigate someone else before Robert asked you to investigate Joshua or were you always planning on investigating him?

[Umbra-Manis]

Hmm, Ralph, were you planning to investigate someone else before Robert asked you to investigate Joshua or were you always planning on investigating him?

I doubt this will get us a truthful answer anyway, but answer away Ralph.

I also vote Yes on this government, as I think the new blood in the TCC position is a good thing.

[Dragonfire]

I may have unwittingly assisted scum by asking Ralph to check Joshua, but I stand by my decision. I'm not going to pick sides at this point: one of you is lying, I don't know who and we have no means of verifying unless we pass two more scum policies and one of you gets killed. I find both of you quite scummy atm actually.

[Peanuts]

I will also vote yes. I have had no reason to distrust Patricia more than anyone else so far.

[Actor Builder]

Hmm, Ralph, were you planning to investigate someone else before Robert asked you to investigate Joshua or were you always planning on investigating him?

In all truthfulness, I had forgotten I was able to instigate an "investigate" until I saw the suggestions.

I was away from my computer all of the weekend, and this completely real-life not-a-game thing had slipped my mind!

I investigated Joshua because it was what I was requested to do if I had received three Mafia Cards, which I had, so I did.

I'm glad I did get the suggested suggestion, because I would have had no clue who to investigate otherwise, and following Robert's suggestion gave way to a Mafia reveal.

And I vote as a vote: Yes

[Bob]

Bob, will we learn the allegiance of the killed?

No.

This government has now passed! Standby for the drawing of the cards.

[Chromeknight]

Now we're playing the game. We have two competing truth claims.

This isn't mafia people. We don't lynch to test this stuff. We link the claims together and see what holds as a coherent group and what doesn't.

In all truthfulness, I had forgotten I was able to instigate an "investigate" until I saw the suggestions.

I investigated Joshua because it was what I was requested to do if I had received three Mafia Cards, which I had, so I did.

I'm glad I did get the suggested suggestion, because I would have had no clue who to investigate otherwise, and following Robert's suggestion gave way to a Mafia reveal.

Actually, it wasn't what you were requested to do. Dragonfire got it backwards.

Other way around.

If Ralph got a town card and passed it Anne, that's when he should investigate Joshua.

If he (truly) got three scum cards, then Anne playing a scum card is a wash and her investigation will probably stand, that's when we need new info.

So. Did you not read carefully or is something else going on?

I may have unwittingly assisted scum by asking Ralph to check Joshua, but I stand by my decision. I'm not going to pick sides at this point: one of you is lying, I don't know who and we have no means of verifying unless we pass two more scum policies and one of you gets killed. I find both of you quite scummy atm actually.

Wait? What? What are you saying here, assisting scum?

Do you mean you assisted the scum Ralph to pick a target?

Or you assisted the scum Joshua by outing him and throwing doubt on Anne?

I'm not sure if you're not paying attention or are stuffing things up deliberately.

Either way, it's almost impossible that both yesterday and the day before involved the mayor being given three Mafia policies. Someone is scum between Ralph and Joshua, and they almost certainly discarded a town policy.

Um no. Not impossible. Unlikely. Like rolling three sixes unlikely. Which is quite different to winning the lottery unlikely.

But given the investigation result, one of Ralph and Joshua are lying. Which yes, means one of them is scum. And scum would throw away a town card if they had a chance.

The analysis.

Day one

Deck holds 11scum 6town

Mayor draws 2scum 1town

Discards a scum

TCC plays a town

Day two

Deck holds 9scum 5town

Mayor draws* 3scum

Discards a scum*

TCC plays a scum

Day 3

Deck holds 6scum 5town

Mayor draws* 2scum 1town

Discards a town

TCC plays a scum

It's also possible day two was a town discard and day three a scum, but either way it's the same deck for day four.

Day 4

Deck holds 4scum 4town

Chance of 3town draw 1/14

Chance of 2town1scum draw 6/14

Chance of 1town2scum draw 6/14

Chance of 3scum draw 1/14

[Actor Builder]

All I know is the information which I have milked straight from Bob's cow.

That is to say, Peanuts/Joshua is a Mafia, and that is what Bob told me, beyond that, I have a hat, and I am a former Mayor. That's all I know.

I have a confession to make...

I really have no idea what's going on. I talk big, but I don't really understand this at all.

[Dragonfire]

Wait? What? What are you saying here, assisting scum?

Do you mean you assisted the scum Ralph to pick a target?

Or you assisted the scum Joshua by outing him and throwing doubt on Anne?

I'm not sure if you're not paying attention or are stuffing things up deliberately.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here. When I said "I may have unwittingly assisted scum by asking Ralph to check Joshua" I was referring to the possibility that Ralph is scum and I, an unsuspecting townie, unwittingly assisted him in his ploy to throw doubt on the investigation result on Anne by checking Joshua.

The second of your two stated possibilities (assisting scum-Joshua) doesn't make sense. How would outing a scum be assisting them? I think it's you who's either not paying attention or deliberately "stuffing things up".

Also, I didn't "get it backwards", as you put it. My logic was thus: assuming Ralph is town, if he received one town and two scum cards, then clearly Anne must have discarded a scum card and therefore must be scum, also making Joshua scum. Hence there would be no point for him to check either of them, since from his point of view they would be confirmed scum, so he should check an unknown, Patricia or Lindsey for instance. But if town-Ralph received three scum cards, it wouldn't tell us anything about Anne's alignment (or Joshua's) and so he should check Joshua to either confirm or refute the investigation result. Of course, if Ralph is scum none of these things apply.

You seem to think that he should have investigated Joshua if he got a town and two scum cards - I disagree, in that case both Joshua and Anne would be confirmed scum and so investigating them would be a waste of an investigation.

By the way, that probability analysis looks pretty good for us. Hopefully we'll pass a town policy today, which is statistically the most likely option.

[Chromeknight]

If Ralph passed a town card to Anne and she discarded it, yes, she's scum. It doesn't automatically follow that Joshua is scum, Anne could be the Godfather, who, IIRC, investigates as town. In that case, Ralph should investigate Joshua.

Because either Joshua is town and he accidentally picked the GF and so we'd be certain that Anne is the GF which means we can lock her out.

Or Joshua is scum and lied about Anne being town, Anne is probably the GF but not certainly so.

But if Anne had no choice about what she played, she could well be town and it is better to use the investigation someone who we can install as TCC chair today and leave Anne to be tested next time she's TCC and she actually has a choice about what to play.

Either way, we just have different valid reasons for suggesting what we did. Thanks for explaining your thinking.