Unrest in the Forest - Day 5: A Farewell to Kings

[mostlytechnic]

I'm still not 100% sold that they don't have some multi-shot janitor. The stumps are proving a great aid to the Oaks, and I continue to believe they must be balanced out some how. That being said, for the time being I have absolutely no trouble assuming that the non-stump trees are Maples. I'd figure that at least two of them are, so it seems like a better assumption - so we can actually start to get some answers and analyze behavior - is to act like they all are.

Chester has been tickling me since Day 2. Berty has as well. I don't know why a Maple would claim Miller so early and while not under scrutiny, but I can understand a Maple claiming Miller (obviously) and he's been very not helpful since then. On top of that, the fact that he claimed so late in the day is interesting. Perhaps he wanted to claim it, but not at a time that he would have been scrutinized (and no lynch could have really built against him). Once the night passed no one really questioned it or discussed it much.

Yes, stumps are starting to be a good assistance to us - but it took a while, and the lack of stumps on 3 people has been a MAJOR point of confusion. Could that be the counter-balance? The lack of info on maples / 3rd parties?

And I think that's a good explanation of the miller claim. It's been bouncing around my mind for a while and that's the clearest statement of it I've seen. Makes sense and I think it's time to put that miller claim to the test.

[Hinckley]

Finally, the scum knew Waldorf would flip oak and come back as a stump. If I were them and had a janitor ability, I'd have let Hazel flip scum, since (by definition of a lynch) a majority of people thought she was anyway, and removed Waldorf instead to keep him from coordinating between us and the stumps. ESPECIALLY if they knew he was the investigator as some think they did - keep him from confirming that and keep people questioning Simon and the dual-investigator story. Instead, since he came back as stump, we've got solid trustworthy confirmation that seals Simon as legit.

OK, that's very good analysis. I'll no longer complain that you're on mechanics analysis duty.

And it seems like Simon is cleared.

Sorry to disappoint you and your Scum buddies.

Chester has been tickling me since Day 2.

Perverts.

Berty has as well. I don't know why a Maple would claim Miller so early and while not under scrutiny, but I can understand a Maple claiming Miller (obviously) and he's been very not helpful since then. On top of that, the fact that he claimed so late in the day is interesting. Perhaps he wanted to claim it, but not at a time that he would have been scrutinized (and no lynch could have really built against him). Once the night passed no one really questioned it or discussed it much.

I'm too busy to check if this is a new tickle for you. I don't remember you having such a solid read on Berty before. I'll check when I have a chance though.

I'm also willing to see where the Town Block leads us.

Ping. This is megablocks.

1. We now have no investigator now. And our magic runes of who is Oak and who is Maple aren't working. So where do you expect us to lead you? You're Town, right? () So, shouldn't you be helping to lead the Oaks in the right direction. Why separate yourself so far from the Town block?
   
2. If you're going to believe for now that there's no janitor, haven't we just given you Hazel? And now we're leading you to Berty. Willing to see where we lead you? Willingly ignorant to see where we've led you is more like it.

And I think it's suspect that Berty went to Simon to claim when he was, as yet, unconfirmed.

I even told him not to claim to me because he had no way of knowing what side I was on. And he trusted me anyway. A leap of faith, he called it.

I think it's important to note that Berty also says in the same post (Day 2, post 198) that he has played with the janitor role before but on a very different site. I find it strange that he knows about how to play a janitor role but not a miller role?

Stumps are much easier to like when they're not hurling grammar-error-laden threats at me.

[fhomess]

Honestly, the miller role claim has been reviewed and rehashed a decent amount and the short of it comes down to whether or not you believe that Berty didn't know how to play the role until she spoke with Simon late on Day 1. I've gone back and forth on it numerous times and have found that there wasn't a lot to push my thought process one way or the other on it. At the least, Berty has been pretty consistent in his response about the claim and how it happened. What hasn't really been discussed since the miller claim was Berty's Garden Variety Oaks comment earlier in the day.

I'm still not 100% sold that they don't have some multi-shot janitor. The stumps are proving a great aid to the Oaks, and I continue to believe they must be balanced out some how. That being said, for the time being I have absolutely no trouble assuming that the non-stump trees are Maples. I'd figure that at least two of them are, so it seems like a better assumption - so we can actually start to get some answers and analyze behavior - is to act like they all are.

Which two do you think were scum? If you think we should act on the assumption that all are scum, then we should lynch Berty based on yesterday's interaction with Hazel, no?

[Dragonfire]

Yes, Lauren hands the Scum a free list of vanilla Townies. Which is why I don't like when you come to me with a list of those who hadn't claimed codes and basically ask which ones are in the Town block.

She did that?

Ok, expect a vote from me when voting opens.

We're looking at the same data (the lack of stumps) exactly opposite. I started out thinking there had to be a janitor. Made for the simplest explanation - Alastair was janitored probably just for confusion's sake going into day 2. Odds are he was an oak, just looking at the odds and the fact that it's day 1.

But now, with 3 missing stumps, I'm not thinking that anymore:

1. Janitor usually is a limited use role. We've got 3 missing stumps already - seems like a lot to me.
   
2. No missing stump from night 2. Why? If the maples DID have an unlimited (or at least a very many shot) janitor, why not use it night 2? Surely they'd have wanted to keep the confusion going. There was so much debate over codes and stumps and Catarina, if they'd have had a janitor they'd have used it. Surely.
   
3. I still think Hazel was scum. So it's possible if they had a janitor, they'd have used it to hide her identity. But then we're back to point 1 - could they have this many janitors? If they do, we're back to point 2, why not use it night 2 as well?
   
4. Finally, the scum knew Waldorf would flip oak and come back as a stump. If I were them and had a janitor ability, I'd have let Hazel flip scum, since (by definition of a lynch) a majority of people thought she was anyway, and removed Waldorf instead to keep him from coordinating between us and the stumps. ESPECIALLY if they knew he was the investigator as some think they did - keep him from confirming that and keep people questioning Simon and the dual-investigator story. Instead, since he came back as stump, we've got solid trustworthy confirmation that seals Simon as legit.
   

So that's why now, since we have ZERO proven maples or 3rd parties, I'm leaning that we were right in thinking Barry and Hazel were scum. Alastair was either scum or 3rd party and we got really lucky on day 1 voting. And I think oaks come back as stumps and since there'd be no point in a maple or 3rd party coming back as a stump, they're removed. And the scum don't have a janitor.

And so it's logically consistent that Hazel was scum like we thought. And that means you probably are too - so as I said, expect my vote.

I think this is pretty good reasoning. I do still think that Hazel was town and was janitored. Anyway, I'll see for myself when you guys lynch me. I expect the scum to janitor me, so yeah, I'll see.

If I was scum and Hazel was too, I would have janitored Waldorf as well- point 4 is a good point.

Chester has been tickling me since Day 2. Berty has as well. I don't know why a Maple would claim Miller so early and while not under scrutiny, but I can understand a Maple claiming Miller (obviously) and he's been very not helpful since then. On top of that, the fact that he claimed so late in the day is interesting. Perhaps he wanted to claim it, but not at a time that he would have been scrutinized (and no lynch could have really built against him). Once the night passed no one really questioned it or discussed it much.

I'm also willing to see where the Town Block leads us.

And when have you ever expressed suspicion of me before? How have you been more helpful than me?

The stumps have pointed out this meta-inconsistency. First, someone way in the future of Berty's family tree (tee^hee) joined Excalibur TNG:

Second, Berty explains why he hesitated to claim miller:

And I think it's suspect that Berty went to Simon to claim when he was, as yet, unconfirmed.

I've already explained why I went to Simon.

I've played on mafiascum before but never with a miller. Just because I've played on mafiascum before doesn't mean I've read the wiki- in fact, I haven't.

I think it's important to note that Berty also says in the same post (Day 2, post 198) that he has played with the janitor role before but on a very different site. I find it strange that he knows about how to play a janitor role but not a miller role?

I've played with the janitor (and the miller too) on epicmafia. On epicmafia, millers appear to themselves as villagers and appear as scum upon death. There is no rule about millers claiming early. The miller role here is very different. Janitors on epicmafia simply hide the victim's role. I never said I knew how to play a janitor role. I just said that I knew what a janitor was. I also know what a miller is. But not how to play the role.

I'm noticing a disturbing pattern here. Everyone is gearing up for my lynch. Some people, like Simon,have been uneasy about me for a while and have made good cases. Others, like Jack, have also made good, logical cases. But some other people, namely Nash and Sue, are randomly saying "I suspected Berty and his claim since Day One, and I'm happy to lynch him". It's those people I'm worried about, who are taking advantage of the lynch.

The main reason for lynching me is that Hazel flipped unknown (in fact, I don't think anyone but Simon has mentioned any other reasons). There's a good chance she was janitored to set up my lynch today. If Hazel was town and got janitored, it is possible that Alastair (and maybe Barry, but this is unlikely) were also janitored Town. If this is the case, then there are a lot more scum than we think, and it could be that they only need one more lynch (and a kill) to win the game. We could be very close to defeat.

I know this is just a conspiracy theory, but I'm seriously worried. If we knew for certain that Hazel, Barry and Alastair were scum, then I'd be fine with my lynch because it would remove a suspect for you guys, enable me to work with town (as a stump) without being suspected, and also there would be no fear of scum winning because three of them were dead. But this is not the case.

I fully expect Peter and Chester to behave in similar ways to Sue and Nash. I would suggest looking into those four when I am dead.

[jimmynick]

I think this is pretty good reasoning. I do still think that Hazel was town and was janitored. Anyway, I'll see for myself when you guys lynch me. I expect the scum to janitor me, so yeah, I'll see.

If I was scum and Hazel was too, I would have janitored Waldorf as well- point 4 is a good point.

Using a highly technical skill I like to call "reading", I think Jack's conclusion is that non-Oaks don't come back as stumps and that you don't have the option to janitor anyone.

I'm noticing a disturbing pattern here. Everyone is gearing up for my lynch. Some people, like Simon,have been uneasy about me for a while and have made good cases. Others, like Jack, have also made good, logical cases. But some other people, namely Nash and Sue, are randomly saying "I suspected Berty and his claim since Day One, and I'm happy to lynch him". It's those people I'm worried about, who are taking advantage of the lynch.

I've noticed that too (and yesterday on the Hazel lynch), and I think people like Nash are just bad at bussing people convincingly.

[Hinckley]

Using a highly technical skill I like to call "reading",

Wiiiiiitch!!!!!!

[Dragonfire]

Using a highly technical skill I like to call "reading", I think Jack's conclusion is that non-Oaks don't come back as stumps and that you don't have the option to janitor anyone.

I've noticed that too (and yesterday on the Hazel lynch), and I think people like Nash are just bad at bussing people convincingly.

Yes, I know what Jack's conclusion is. I don't agree with him but I think it is good reasoning.

So who do you think is scum? Me, Nash, Hazel -- who else?

[Hinckley]

So who do you think is scum? Me, Nash, Hazel -- who else?

Adelaide.

Possibly Sue.

[Dragonfire]

Adelaide.

Possibly Sue.

So you think there are seven scum in the game?

[mostlytechnic]

Well, assuming the three missing stumps are scum, and you are too Berty, that'd be 4. I'm guessing there were 5 scum, so only need one more. And yeah, it's probably in that list of people you gave (Peter, Chester, Sue, Nash) since you are probably trying to keep their name cleared when you don't appear tomorrow as a stump.

[Hinckley]

So you think there are seven scum in the game?

Again, my magic runes are broken. They do seem to be spelling out "Lynch Berty". They could be wrong, but logic dictates that it's the lowest risk to take. They say you're doing an admirable job defending yourself. But they point out all of your logic hinges on "don't lynch me" and not an overall analysis of the game mechanics that we've seen evidence of. They admit they don't know for sure until they see your stump or your roots obliterated by dynamite...Don't talk to me, man. Talk to the runes.

Maybe there are more Scum than normal because of the Stumps? Who came up with the neutral bomb gambit? That's kind of led to a path of destruction.

[Dragonfire]

Well, assuming the three missing stumps are scum, and you are too Berty, that'd be 4. I'm guessing there were 5 scum, so only need one more. And yeah, it's probably in that list of people you gave (Peter, Chester, Sue, Nash) since you are probably trying to keep their name cleared when you don't appear tomorrow as a stump.

Good. I'm pleased to hear that you'll lynch a scumread of mine even if the Maples do janitor me.

Again, my magic runes are broken. They do seem to be spelling out "Lynch Berty". They could be wrong, but logic dictates that it's the lowest risk to take. They say you're doing an admirable job defending yourself. But they point out all of your logic hinges on "don't lynch me" and not an overall analysis of the game mechanics that we've seen evidence of. They admit they don't know for sure until they see your stump or your roots obliterated by dynamite...Don't talk to me, man. Talk to the runes.

Maybe there are more Scum than normal because of the Stumps? Who came up with the neutral bomb gambit? That's kind of led to a path of destruction.

Generally, when someone's defending themselves from basically every single other player, the message is "don't lynch me".

How does your logic hinge on an analysis of the game mechanics?

[Tamamono]

I don't like how Berty's preparing for his affiliation to be undiscernible...

[Hinckley]

Good. I'm pleased to hear that you'll lynch a scumread of mine even if the Maples do janitor me.

"I'm glad you'll still lynch the Townies I'm accusing when I get 'janitored' :wink:" Which one of those is your Scum read? Peter, Chester, Sue or Nash?

Generally, when someone's defending themselves from basically every single other player, the message is "don't lynch me".

How does your logic hinge on an analysis of the game mechanics?

Generally, one doesn't have to adjust their analysis of players and mechanics to suit their defense.

...unless they're lying. That was implied but I thought I'd be clear just in case?

Am I coming off like a dick? I just re-read my last few posts and they felt a bit condescending. Sorry.

I don't like how Berty's preparing for his affiliation to be undiscernible...

And yet I can't help myself. Oh, are you thinking he might be Scum?

I miss Clem and Waldorf.

[Dragonfire]

I don't like how Berty's preparing for his affiliation to be undiscernible...

If I was the scum janitor, I would janitor Berty (myself). If I become a stump, then I'll be pretty sure that there is no janitor.

"I'm glad you'll still lynch the Townies I'm accusing when I get 'janitored' :wink:" Which one of those is your Scum read? Peter, Chester, Sue or Nash?

Generally, one doesn't have to adjust their analysis of players and mechanics to suit their defense.

...unless they're lying. That was implied but I thought I'd be clear just in case?

Am I coming off like a dick? I just re-read my last few posts and they felt a bit condescending. Sorry.

And yet I can't help myself. Oh, are you thinking he might be Scum?

My strongest scumread is Chester; I scumread Peter and have milder scumreads on Nash and Sue, mainly based on their comments today.

Well, your general manner is slightly condescending But, honestly, newbies like me do feel slightly intimidated by very experienced townies like you, who basically control the town's actions.

[Hinckley]

If I was the scum janitor, I would janitor Berty (myself). If I become a stump, then I'll be pretty sure that there is no janitor.

So, if you're lynch and become a stump, you would think Hazel is Scum then?

My strongest scumread is Chester;

Yes, yes. We all know you think Chester is Scummy for twisting Jack Pine's words, which Hazel did first but she's a Townie so it only makes him Scummy. Gotcha. If your intention is for us to lynch Chester last, mission accomplished. Well done.

If you are indeed a Maple...which I think you are...so do the runes.

[Dragonfire]

So, if you're lynch and become a stump, you would think Hazel is Scum then?

I'd be more inclined to think she was scum; yes.

Yes, yes. We all know you think Chester is Scummy for twisting Jack Pine's words, which Hazel did first but she's a Townie so it only makes him Scummy. Gotcha. If your intention is for us to lynch Chester last, mission accomplished. Well done.

If you are indeed a Maple...which I think you are...so do the runes.

No, both Chester and Hazel were scummy by twisting Jack's words. Scummy doesn't necessarily equal scum. When I flip town, lynch Chester please.

[Duvors]

Well, your general manner is slightly condescending But, honestly, newbies like me do feel slightly intimidated by very experienced townies like you, who basically control the town's actions.

The "I'm new at this" excuse is never taken well, and you seem to be overdoing it slightly.

[Lego Spy]

But, honestly, newbies like me do feel slightly intimidated by very experienced townies like you, who basically control the town's actions.

But you claim to have played on MafiaScum before.

[Walter Kovacs]

Voting is now open. With 12 players remaining, it takes 7 votes to lynch.

[mostlytechnic]

Looks like I get to start things off:

Vote: Berty Birch (dragonfire)

I think I explained it enough earlier today.

[Zepher]

Sorry to disappoint you and your Scum buddies.

Wah wah wah. If I had known it would hurt your feelings so much I would have never accused you. You need thicker bark. I still don't understand why you think it's such a crime to not trust two people who have cleared each other. Now that you're actually cleared by a cleared Oak, I'm totally on board.

Perverts.

Well now you've gone and hurt my feeling.

I'm too busy to check if this is a new tickle for you. I don't remember you having such a solid read on Berty before. I'll check when I have a chance though.

Are we only allowed to accuse people we've publicly accused before. In that case, Adelaide and Chester, once you're are out of the game I will be done accusing people. But sure, check back. I may have mentioned it before. I'm pretty sure I have actually. I'm not going to put in the leg work because it doesn't matter to me what I've said before, to be honest. (Not saying you shouldn't, obviously that's a good way to catch Maples, but I don't think this is worth even defending against and I don't have to prove to myself that I'm not Maple).

1. We now have no investigator now. And our magic runes of who is Oak and who is Maple aren't working. So where do you expect us to lead you? You're Town, right? ( ) So, shouldn't you be helping to lead the Oaks in the right direction. Why separate yourself so far from the Town block?
   
2. If you're going to believe for now that there's no janitor, haven't we just given you Hazel? And now we're leading you to Berty. Willing to see where we lead you? Willingly ignorant to see where we've led you is more like it.
   

Okay, fine, I still don't trust you? Is that the answer that's best? I dunno! I'm just a tree after all. I don't understand what the right reaction would be. The town block seems proven now, so I'm willing to listen to their opinion instead of rebel against it. That's what you've been trying to get from me for the last however many days. But still you're not happy! What a silly tree! And I'm not part of the town block. You guys won't let me hang out with you. And I guess without investigators I won't get to come chill this game.

But you know there are ways for united power roles to find people without an investigator, or at least to lead us in the right direction. Blocker, role cop, watcher... any of those can point us in the right direction.

[Scubacarrot]

I'm willing to see where this goes. I'm confident now that the scum turn up unknown. I'm still trying to figure out if Berty is more or less likely scum because Barry was. So far the one thing that stands out to me is that Berty apparantly relayed pretty accurately exactly what words were said in the exchange between me and Barry. That is interesting.

So... Berty Birch (dragonfire)

Let's try that again. Vote: Berty Birch (Dragonfire)

Also. Is Lassie asking anyone else a LOT of questions?

In private, that is.

[fhomess]

I have been asking a lot of questions of certain people. In your case, if we consider Barry to be scum, which I do, then it's of interest who Barry was talking to and what they were doing with the information they exchanged with Barry. You were one of those people.

Vote: Berty Birch (Dragonfire)

[jimmynick]

Yes, I know what Jack's conclusion is. I don't agree with him but I think it is good reasoning.

You agree that, if the scum had the choice of whom to janitor, they would have janitored me and not Hazel. That's flattering. I bet you're disappointed you couldn't have janitored me since I'm an oak.

So are you saying the scum have the choice of whom to janitor, but they were dumb and chose Hazel? Because that is the sticking point that doesn't let me believe you disagree with him. You're trying to save your sorry roots and convince us that when your stump goes away, it will have been because the scum chose it that way, not because the scum (and/or third parties) stumps disappear.

Wah wah wah. If I had known it would hurt your feelings so much I would have never accused you. You need thicker bark. I still don't understand why you think it's such a crime to not trust two people who have cleared each other. Now that you're actually cleared by a cleared Oak, I'm totally on board.

What about yesterday and Clem?

STUMP Vote: Berty Birch (Dragonfire)

Hey, Simon and Bruce, I have things to tell you!

n139 Hero

n4244 Beatrice

n639 Don Pedro

n9254 Conrade

n1668 Duncan

n4636 Ross

n4187 Donalbain

n136 Banquo

n4861 Benedick

n3610 Margaret

And don't forget n3372 EQFQ.