MAB

There is one good reason that they make some of the more popular 'natural' colours rare. If you could buy 1x4 sand green at a PAB wall, then sales of sets with sand green bricks in them would drop. They know exactly what they are doing there.

I'm not so sure. The UCS MF has been the flagship set of the investment articles. With a bit of Taj Mahal, Cafe Corner, etc. But it is the Falcon that seems to be the star of the articles. Now what happens if that plummets in value? The general public then get the don't invest in lego slant, look what happened to the Falcon. This will cut current sales of people investing and this is likely to hit sales overall. I haven't a clue what proportion of sets (especially the larger, AFOL aimed ones) are investment rather than consumer. But if sales are down by even a small proportion it may be enough to convince lego there is no longer a viable AFOL market.

There doesn't need to be a huge market for them, there just has to be some demand within the timescale the seller wants to sell. I doubt a very high percentage are in the hands of resellers. A high percentage of the ones for sale are, but not a high percentage over all. I have a few £500+ sealed sets, and I'll make sure that I get a high price for them. I have no need to sell them fast, so there is no worry for me if I list them for sale and they don't sell for 6-12 months. Once I spot their value has plateaued (or slowed enough), I'll sell them just so I can reinvest in something else. If their prices drop there is usually another factor - in this case maybe a significantly better remake comes along and the interest in the old does actually go away. But in that case, would you want the old one still, or the better newer one?

I believe it will plateau but only for more modern / recently retired / current sets, since many sellers have invested recently. Older sets are unlikely to ever come down while they are in demand simply because of the supply vs demand. The problem is that they are worth the prices they go for, as that is what some people are willing to pay. If you don't think they are worth that much, then you will never own them as other people think they are worth more, and supply is low. Sellers set prices high as (some) buyers are paying prices that high. I have sold some of my sets for 4-5x what I paid for them. Why should I take 1.1x or 1.5x or 2x when buyers are willing to pay 5x? If I sold at 2x, then the buyer could easily flip it and make significantly more and I am losing profit. I (and most resellers) also don't care what the average buyer will pay. I only really care about what the top end of the buyers will pay when selling. Of course, if the demand is low and supply is high, then serious undercutting to get rid of stock may well happen and prices drop. And of course it depends on the theme, not just the theme but even sets within a theme. That is where investor skill comes in. Knowing what to invest in is just as important as buy-in price. As to minifigures, I'd say all figures are over priced for what they are really worth. But again, they are typically priced to sell to the top end of the market. It's more popular now, as both a toy and an investment. Does it bother you more as a collector or as a dealer? It is clear others are now dealing in it too, which means more competition for buying dealers lots (higher prices for bulk lots) and more competition when selling (lower prices when selling on). Some people are willing to work for less, so dealers that used to have it good will always find it harder. I've seen it happen in a number of areas of collectables.

I have a small MOC kit for travelling. It contains nothing bigger than four studs in area, apart from one black 8x8 plate which is used as a base. Mainly 1x1 and 1x2 plates and tiles, some 1x1 and 1x2 bricks (and 1x1 round bricks), the odd arch and dome, some flower stems (trees), arched windows with the wooden shutters (excellent doors), 1x1 round plates, then quite a few 1x1 and 1x2 bricks with studs on side, headlight bricks (great for windows when reversed), etc.

Sauron and the Witch King? These are clearly minor characters, as they didn't appear in the lego sets. :-)

Not really. They don't like people buying then instantly reselling exclusives, which is why they have limits on them. I agree that they are not making figures or sets specifically for people to horde / invest in. But then, thy aren't making figures or sets for people to play with either. They are making them to sell. That is the primary motive. I don't believe they care what people do with them, so long as they sell. They don't like exclsuives going out of stock near important events (Christmas, etc) as they get negative press / feelings when the only way to buy something is by paying 3x the price on ebay. However, they do nothing to stop other stores limiting sales or prices of non-exclusive sets to purchases (whether for play or resale). For example, I once bought 80 of a particular set in one transaction from one retailer. Lego did ntohing to crack down on that transaction. I have bought more than 20 of one set direct from lego too (in a single order), but one that they didn't really care about stock levels on.

What do you mean by a freer market without high prices? If a market is free, then prices are set by buyers and sellers. If priced too high they won't sell, if priced too low someone will buy and resell. As soon as any limitations are put on the market (not allowing high prices, or killing high prices by making reproductions), then the market is no longer free. I don't see how the existence of an old set at high secondary market price keeps people away from collecting. Collecting that particular set, maybe. But Lego doesn't care about that. They care about sales of their current sets, not ones that have been gone 10 years. If Lego start to manipulate secondary prices by re-releasing sets, then that has an inherent danger. People stop buying for investment, which hits their current product range. If I think something will not make 2x my cost price within a year, I won't buy it (if investing). It won't reach that if a re-release is likely. So current stock won't sell as well, which does then impact Lego. Of course, it will then be discounted, and investors will jump in at 50% off. You only need look at the CMF range to see the effect. Bunny suit guy is re-released and his value plummets. Will people be so willing to invest in CMF now, when other re-releases may come?

Too late, forevermore she will be known as "Fat Alice".

That's my feeling too. It's a recreation of a (not very popular) classic toy for 4-5x the price and not really as functional as the original. Sure, it is great it can be made from Lego. Sure, it is great that you can change the layout. But comparing it to other Lego sets, it doesn't seem to be a good play piece or display piece. Comparing it to other mazes, it lacks functionality and appears easy to cheat having no drop holes.

I've also been waiting - order 1st March, dispatch note today!

No, I'm a fan of it. It is what started me buying lego sets again. I was into MOCs for the previous 10 years, including LOTR stuff, but rarely bought sets as they didn't give me what I wanted. I just don't see any new sets selling well. To do genuinely new sets and minifigures and make them appealing to all (not just older collectors), they'd have to rehash old settings and definitely all the old minifigures to sell to new collectors, which is fine if there is enough of a new fan base to buy them and seems to work with SW (eg. landspeeders and X-wings, although it still gets complaints about rehashes). But I don't believe that there is enough of a new fan base that wouldn't have the old stuff, not after 3-4 years. Maybe after 10 years there would be enough people that want it and didn't get it first time around. But also it wouldn't surprise me that if they did it again, we'd still miss out on Eowyn and Faramir and Witch King, but get loads of Gimli and Legolas, Frodo and Gandalf. We can all say give us a Gondor soldier army builder pack, give us Witch King vs Eowyn, give us a Balrog. They'd sell well to people that already have the original sets. But if sales were relatively poor first time around (compared to SH and SW), they are likely to be worse this time. Not only don't they appeal to kids (or their parents buying for kids), but they don't fit with anything else that is currently for sale. Obscure characters from an old franchise. To fit with anything else they have to re-release the Fellowship, Saruman, Elrond, orcs, ... Sales for those will be poor, as many people that are interested in the theme will already have them, so the sales for the whole line (which would probably be four rehashes plus one novel set with new minifigures) would look terrible, so further stuff wouldn't get released. Much as I'd prefer to see LOTR or even a non-licensed "grey" castle line over Nexo Knights, for example, it is clear which is going to sell better. And when lego are at production capacity, they are going to go with the line that they are going to be able to sell. It wouldn't surprise me if they continue to do one and done type licensed themes. Get in, sell to the fans, and leave it and move onto something else new to sell to the next set of fans. That seems to be the way with Scooby Doo, Lone Ranger, probably Jurassic World. Toy Story, Prince of Persia. It is a different game to when Indiana Jones and Harry Potter was around. SW (and probably SH) are evergreen licenses, others will get about a year and done. They seem to be going for breadth rather than depth, as presumably this gets the sales.

So there are maybe 3-4 years worth of youngish students that probably cannot afford the sets that would have come along in the meantime since the last sets.

I think I would have probably Smaugified the red dragon instead!

I remember sending six full sets and countless invidual packets at cost price to people in the US, Aus, Germany and Canada that I know through another forum. I've also benefitted from deals in reverse such as the Target cubes.

How many can you carry? The most I've done is eight in one purchase. Four of them were only one type of part plus filler.

I've not seen that argument before, the one normally said is that many girls, especially ones that didn't play with Lego, preferred and identified with more realistic figures.

I didn't say it was an important argument. I said there would be complaints, and there would. I don't. The people that missed out would be Lego fans that weren't into lotr but are now, or lotr fans that weren't into Lego but are now, or new to both. Given nothing new in lotr in the past 10 years, those new to lotr is likely to be a small number. There may be some people that were into both but didn't buy first time around, but are they going to be numerous or indeed in a position to buy now? "All" they have to do? Did they manage that between waves 1 and 2 of lotr, or from the first wave of Hobbit sets to the last?

Not if Lego doesn't want it to happen. It's been too long now. If they do new sets, they will be rehashes of existing sets / characters. Sales of sets containing Eowyn or Witch King or Sauron would be poor. Why would people buy them without being able to get Frodo and the Fellowship. And sales of rehashes would be poor too. The seem not to have been great first time around and second time they'd only appeal to people that didn't buy in first time around, so a very small market. Plus there would be complaints about rehashes and value of collections, and so on.

It is not an illusion. Minifigures are wide, therefore front-on the Alice figure doesn't just appear too wide. She is too wide. That's the downside of minifigs versus minidolls. The printing of the face makes it worse.

Caterham.

The dino necks also went from about 20p each (used) when I bought them at the start of December to about £5 each last time I looked. I'm glad I bought the book early! They are only going up in price.

How are those any different to even more expensive sets with unique parts such as Super Heroes or Star Wars, whose only purpose is to have kids force their parents to spend lots of $$$ (and some adults to spend lots of $$$ too.)

There is already this too ... And if you want to combine it with a bear "helmet" / head-gear from Chima for the pack leader to either wear over his head, or on top of his helmet, then there is some more to be going on with. And if you don't mind mixing in ice-bear insignia, then there is also a plastic flag banner in Chima too.

Which is presumably because LOTR was never that good when it came to sales. If it was a good line financially, lego would have continued with it. That doesn't mean it was a disaster, just that other lines performed better. We know this. LOTR was never on the best selling lists, while other lines were. And there are no overpriced figures in the primary lego market, which lego caters for. If people didn't buy the sets at the time and now complain about secondary market prices, it is their fault and not lego's that they missed out. Maybe if they had, then the line would have continued. But the mass interest was not there, like it was for other themes.