Future Train sets discussion/speculation

[Carrera124]

Fact #1:

TLC's line-up is bigger than ever before. Source: http://www.brickset.com/browse/

Around 600 new sets for each year 2011, 2012, 2013.

Minus polybags, promo-stuff, let's assume that we are walking about 400 "real" sets for each of the last years.

Compared to 1980: around 100 new sets each year, ramping up slowly into the 90ies, and exploding over the last years.

Fact #2:

Videogames and homecomputers are no invention of the 1990ies. The first big crash occured during the middle of the 1980ies: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_video_game_crash_of_1983

That means, videogames have been a huge success before. Therefore, they cannot be the reason for declining sales of single train stuff.

Otherwise, TLC made their decision 20 years too late.

Fact #3:

Clever salesmen sell single train stuff at eBay. They buy sets 3677 and 7939, take them apart and sell the single items. This business seems to run pretty well.

Maybe single train stuff wasn't selling well during the 80ies and 90ies. But the situation was completely different from today: in these times, Lego has been considered as a kid's toy, much more than today.

Today, Lego discovered that there ary many adults buying sets for themselves (and most of them are able to spend more money than the kids of the 80ies and 90ies).

It is hard to believe that 2 or 3 additional train sets would sell worse than any other stuff of the current line-up.

Finally, of course you can create MOCs. But according to that logic, TLC wouldn't need to release nothing more than 10 sets of bulk bricks every year, because everything can be mocced.

[Steinkopf]

Fact #1:

TLC's line-up is bigger than ever before. Source: http://www.brickset.com/browse/

Around 600 new sets for each year 2011, 2012, 2013.

Minus polybags, promo-stuff, let's assume that we are walking about 400 "real" sets for each of the last years.

Compared to 1980: around 100 new sets each year, ramping up slowly into the 90ies, and exploding over the last years.

Fact #2:

Videogames and homecomputers are no invention of the 1990ies. The first big crash occured during the middle of the 1980ies: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_video_game_crash_of_1983

That means, videogames have been a huge success before. Therefore, they cannot be the reason for declining sales of single train stuff.

Otherwise, TLC made their decision 20 years too late.

Fact #3:

Clever salesmen sell single train stuff at eBay. They buy sets 3677 and 7939, take them apart and sell the single items. This business seems to run pretty well.

Maybe single train stuff wasn't selling well during the 80ies and 90ies. But the situation was completely different from today: in these times, Lego has been considered as a kid's toy, much more than today.

Today, Lego discovered that there ary many adults buying sets for themselves (and most of them are able to spend more money than the kids of the 80ies and 90ies).

It is hard to believe that 2 or 3 additional train sets would sell worse than any other stuff of the current line-up.

Finally, of course you can create MOCs. But according to that logic, TLC wouldn't need to release nothing more than 10 sets of bulk bricks every year, because everything can be mocced.

Yet another community announcement from the spokesperson for the Disgruntled Collectors Union, if you are really after extra wagons rather than being the "victim" of the so called "Clever Salesman on Ebay" why don't you just buy another set, afterall you will need more track to run those wagons on buying a whole set would be a really good idea, you can call it a win win situation. If you want a bit of variety with your rolling stock you could always make something else with the leftover parts, but if you find that all too hard I am quite happy to make some really nice wagons for you, prices will be inline with what an official set would realistically sell for such as $40.00 for a simple wagon with load to $70.00 for a more detailed Bogie wagon, postage is extra. I can make a wide variety of designs for you ranging from flat wagons to sliding wall vans and chemical tankers, unfortunately they won't be official sets but on the upside they will probably be better looking and far more detailed than official sets.

Edited August 1, 2013 by Steinkopf

[Bricknblue]

When was the last time that they tried to sell individual train cars, ten years ago? Their sales have gone up a lot since then, haven't they? They have a lot more of their own stores, and Internet shopping is now a common, everyday thing. I'm not saying that they need to offer a whole slew of train cars, but one or two (one freight and one passenger) so that people who would like to have a train set of just one type of car could do so.

Joe

The problem is it will never sell as much as Friends, City or Star Wars. LEGO last year had issues making enough Friends sets because there are only so many sets you can make at once and they won't waste factory time or warehouse space on something that may or may not sell.

Try a Cuusoo train car and see how far you get.

[Carrera124]

Yet another community announcement from the spokesperson for the Disgruntled Collectors Union

Please behave with respect.

if you are really after extra wagons rather than being the "victim" of the so called "Clever Salesman on Ebay" why don't you just buy another set,

Does this need to be explained ? Because I do not want to buy clones, I want to buy some variety.

afterall you will need more track to run those wagons on buying a whole set would be a really good idea, you can call it a win win situation.

No, I do not need more track. I already own too much track parts.

Selling these left-over track parts is useless - no one needs hundreds of curved rails or flex parts.

If you want a bit of variety with your rolling stock you could always make something else with the leftover parts, but if you find that all too hard I am quite happy to make some really nice wagons for you, prices will be inline with what an official set would realistically sell for such as $40.00 for a simple wagon with load to $70.00 for a more detailed Bogie wagon, postage is extra. I can make a wide variety of designs for you ranging from flat wagons to sliding wall vans and chemical tankers, unfortunately they won't be official sets but on the upside they will probably be better looking and far more detailed than official sets.

That's an interesting offer, but I guess this doesn't fulfill all requirements. I'd need it also as a gift, so an "official" box and "official" building instructions are required.

[Hey Joe]

I'm sorry to say that I guess what we need is a train-oriented blockbuster movie - and all of it's related tied-in products - to rouse the bean counter's interest in Billund.

We've had "Cars", and "Planes" will be out soon, so the next logical jump would be our favorite subject, right? Let's keep our fingers crossed. I sort of avoid licensed products personally, but some of it has merit.

They had a chance to come out with some new track pieces at least with the new Lone Ranger train. Guess we should just be grateful for the water tower, and the fact that it included track at all.

Lego trains are really cool, and I think that they are a good thing for our boy, but I'm also planning on getting my old HO layout up-and-running as well. Lego trains seem a little rigid to me. I know I can't build an HO train in the same way as Lego, but I can paint them in my favorite livery. I just couldn't stand to paint Lego. Lego layouts are also quite spendy. For example, you could build an HO roundhouse out of wood scraps if you were so inclined. Plus, I've got a whole bunch of nice HO stuff just sitting in boxes, why not use it?

Also, maybe it's not fair to lump me into a "Disgruntled Collectors Union" (particularly as I'm trying to avoid getting into a collector's mentality with regards to Lego). Perhaps what I'm disgruntled about is the direction that modern society is going; the fact that the hobby (trains, HO trains in particular, but Lionel as well) I loved as a boy is no longer very interesting to tablet-toting, video game-obsessed children who require mass-marketing thrown in their face at every turn to nag Mom and Dad for a toy.

Anyway, hope this is on topic and that Lego comes out with some more cool-looking train stuff soon!

Joe

[peterab]

Fact #1:

TLC's line-up is bigger than ever before. Source: http://www.brickset.com/browse/

Around 600 new sets for each year 2011, 2012, 2013.

Minus polybags, promo-stuff, let's assume that we are walking about 400 "real" sets for each of the last years.

Compared to 1980: around 100 new sets each year, ramping up slowly into the 90ies, and exploding over the last years.

And I assume all these sets have a higher profit margin than individual train cars have in the past. Unless you can show me why sales of individual train cars are going to be miraculously different now I don't see a good argument here why they would make them. In fact as LEGO sales in general rise, and LEGO grows, it gets more and more risky and therefore unlikely while they have limited production resources. As others have said, they are barely able to keep up with demand for Friends, which they pretty much know will sell well.

Fact #3:

Clever salesmen sell single train stuff at eBay. They buy sets 3677 and 7939, take them apart and sell the single items. This business seems to run pretty well.

But the scale of these businesses is orders of magnitude smaller than LEGO's sales targets. They are only evidence that small business are happy to exploit the markets too small for LEGO to care about.

Even Cusoo sets need a minimum of 10,000 likely sales to be considered worth the risk of production, and they are very niche products designed to find potential new markets.

Maybe single train stuff wasn't selling well during the 80ies and 90ies. But the situation was completely different from today: in these times, Lego has been considered as a kid's toy, much more than today.

Today, Lego discovered that there ary many adults buying sets for themselves (and most of them are able to spend more money than the kids of the 80ies and 90ies).

It is hard to believe that 2 or 3 additional train sets would sell worse than any other stuff of the current line-up.

A few years ago one of the LEGO community guys said there were about 150,000 AFOLs. Lets say there is about double that now. In my experience AFOLs that like trains are a small part of the community, maybe a few percent, lets say 3% of 300,000 (this varies wildly from market to market, higher in western Europe and the US, particularly low in Asia). I'm still only seeing 18,000 sets if every train fan AFOL buys two. Compare that with the Mindstorms set that sold over a million (a special case since it was available so long), but I'd be very willing to be a fire engine would sell many multiples of 18,000.

Finally, of course you can create MOCs. But according to that logic, TLC wouldn't need to release nothing more than 10 sets of bulk bricks every year, because everything can be mocced.

That's pretty much how I view a lot of sets. The modular buildings are particularly nicely coloured and good value for money bulk brick packs.

[JopieK]

Fortunately we have Lugbulk. Last year I had 50 train base plates, magnets, wheels, etc. so enough to build quite some train cars. It is often difficult to understand LEGO policy on things, e.g. the Airport Shuttle. Together with my cousin we exhibited it some years ago, hundreds of people were asking: where can we buy it? LEGO can of course make there train more attractive by adding things to it. Especially nowadays when people just buy a lot of things online. In Holland we have mr. BlokBricks (actually two guys) that sell exclusive (and quite expensive) trains and accessories. They almost make a living from it I think, but indeed it may be a more niche market than Fire Fighters.

And guys, please be positive towards eachother!

[peterab]

I sort of avoid licensed products personally, but some of it has merit.

I watch for unpopular licensed products to go on sale. Toy Story and Prince of Persia sets were quite good sources of some nice rare coloured parts at cheap prices. A cheap Lone Ranger train would be a bonanza, it's already great value to part out into a bricklink store.

They had a chance to come out with some new track pieces at least with the new Lone Ranger train.

I'd really love some new track pieces but new moulds require the expectation of large sales, and now Cusoo has ruled out new moulds, I can't really see how this would happen without a massive upswing in the popularity of trains among kids. Here's hoping for that blockbuster movie.

[Carrera124]

And I assume all these sets have a higher profit margin than individual train cars have in the past. Unless you can show me why sales of individual train cars are going to be miraculously different now I don't see a good argument here why they would make them. In fact as LEGO sales in general rise, and LEGO grows, it gets more and more risky and therefore unlikely while they have limited production resources. As others have said, they are barely able to keep up with demand for Friends, which they pretty much know will sell well.

In 2013, we have ~ 600 new sets.

Without promo and polybag stuff, let's say that we are talking about 300 "real" sets.

Moreover, let's assume that these 300 sets would contain 2 or 3 additonal train sets (rolling stock etc.).

Is anyone out there who thinks that these 2-3 addtional sets will be the worst-selling ones, or the ones that have the least profit marge ?

I don't think so. They surely won't reach the profit highscore, but they surely will not lead TLC into bankruptcy.

So, the question isn't "why should make TLC additional train sets". The question is "why does TLC not make them".

Sales and profit are important reasons to decide whether to produce XY or not.

But, they are not the only ones. Again, have a look at the 564 (source: brickset) sets for 2013.

Do you think that every single one will reach high sales and high profit ?

Do you think that every single one has come into existence only because of thinking about sales and profit ?

But the scale of these businesses is orders of magnitude smaller than LEGO's sales targets. They are only evidence that small business are happy to exploit the markets too small for LEGO to care about.

Well, this proves that there is demand for such stuff. And I guess it is just of the top of the iceberg, because eBay is only a part of the market, and not the whole market.

Who knows how many people don't buy, simply because of there are no offers in the official line-up.

Even Cusoo sets need a minimum of 10,000 likely sales to be considered worth the risk of production, and they are very niche products designed to find potential new markets.

I am not surprised to hear that. No released Cuusoo model ever appealed to me.

A few years ago one of the LEGO community guys said there were about 150,000 AFOLs. Lets say there is about double that now. In my experience AFOLs that like trains are a small part of the community, maybe a few percent, lets say 3% of 300,000 (this varies wildly from market to market, higher in western Europe and the US, particularly low in Asia). I'm still only seeing 18,000 sets if every train fan AFOL buys two. Compare that with the Mindstorms set that sold over a million (a special case since it was available so long), but I'd be very willing to be a fire engine would sell many multiples of 18,000.

I am wondering why this calculation is limited to AFOLs only. There is absolutely no reason for that.

Don't you think that also kids own sets 7938, 7939, 3677 and play with them ?

Don't you think that these kids - as long as they like their lego train - would like to extend their trains without buying another expensive starter kit ?

Don't you think that parents, aunts, uncles, grandparents of these kids would like to buy smaller aditional sets as gifts ?

Today, there are only two options: buy another starter set (too big, too expensive) or to buy from Ebay / Bricklink sellers that decompose the starter sets.

Both options may be valid for some people, but not for the masses.

It's easy to claim that sales would be bad, as long as there is no chance for sales to grow.

There is only one thing that could us prove right or wrong: if TLC would do it.

If sales were bad 10 years ago, this may not necessary the same today.

So, bad sales from 2003 are not a valid argument in 2013. Times have changed since then.

[JopieK]

The days from the 12V era are never coming back I'm afraid, we hoped for track accessories in the 9V era, they never came and we are even a step behind (they release a crossing after some years and did not turn it into a PF version). On the other hand, we should be thankful for the Horizon and all the trains we have had in recent years. My option is to use Arduino and non-LEGO servo's to automate the PF trains and that works quite well. At the moment I'm busy with automating the point crossing 7996, it is a challenge, I want to use semaphores, for me that is most of the fun: combining two hobby's, LEGO (Trains) and programming ;)

B.t.w. I don't understand certain LEGO decision either, like why they only release one City Monorail, kids love them... Kids also love trains, I see that at LEGOWorld in Holland every year. They ask a lot of questions about it, etc. I think trains would also be something LEGO could make a really big difference, their plants are sophisticated enough to make stuff that competitors won't, just my opinion of course.

For 2014 I would like to see a new train like the Metroliner, including a double stock car like this:

[Steinkopf]

Also, maybe it's not fair to lump me into a "Disgruntled Collectors Union" (particularly as I'm trying to avoid getting into a collector's mentality with regards to Lego). Perhaps what I'm disgruntled about is the direction that modern society is going; the fact that the hobby (trains, HO trains in particular, but Lionel as well) I loved as a boy is no longer very interesting to tablet-toting, video game-obsessed children who require mass-marketing thrown in their face at every turn to nag Mom and Dad for a toy.

Anyway, hope this is on topic and that Lego comes out with some more cool-looking train stuff soon!

Joe

Hello Joe

I apologise if I offended you it was unintentional as my comment was not aimed in your direction, I have no problem with people being collectors as it is one of the facets of our great hobby, I just get a bit irritaited when I see some people continually complain and argue the same points over and over again that their needs are not being catered for yet they fail to see the good work that has been done. What I would like to see is more acknowledgement from members of the community as to the positive steps taken by TLG, especially when it comes to the level of detail and the quality of the designs with the sets that they have released over the last few years. You only have to look back at the 4.5 volt era where the trains were basically a bunch of bricks whacked on top of wheels akin to a wooden toy train, the designs have progressively improved over the years to the point of where the trains now look like a very reasonable representation of the real thing. Then there is the design team which includes people such as Pierre Normandin, he is a long term AFOL and train builder who is also a founding member of the former MonLUG from Montreal in Canada, back in the early 2000s MonLUG was one of the most progressive and talented train clubs of that era. The level of detail they achieved on their layouts back then was superb and was nothing short of inspirational, here is a link to some of MonLUGs work http://www.brickshelf.com/cgi-bin/gallery.cgi?f=78194 .

I too miss the heady days of 12v and 9v Trains when LEGO Trains was a standalone theme and there was large range of sets available, sadly those days will never return but on the upside LEGO is still giving us sets and providing us with parts that never existed back in the glory days. Before the introduction of the Emerald Night there were no driving wheels for steam locomotives and all the sets that had steam trains in them prior too that used normal train wagon wheels, we have now seen four sets come out with the steam locomotive wheels in them, three of those sets have Black wheels whilst the other has them in Red. Another point of note is that LEGO in its own way is actively trying to draw children into Trains using other themes as a crossover point with sets such as Toy Story Train Chase, Monster Fighters Ghost Train and now the Constitution Express from the Lone Ranger, sets like these help draw in kids who may not necessarily be interested in trains to get involved with them.

Edited August 2, 2013 by Steinkopf

[daveybai]

I've been enjoying this thread a lot. One train I haven't seen mentioned so far is the "Rocky Mountaineer", which is a double-decker with an almost all-glass roof. I think this would be a great next train for TLG to create. It would certainly be very different than anything that has come before.

Here's a link showing the train: http://www.rockymountaineer.com/

[JopieK]

@daveybai: They seem to use a GP-40-2 Engine:

Looks very nice indeed, including the cars:

[peterab]

Is anyone out there who thinks that these 2-3 addtional sets will be the worst-selling ones, or the ones that have the least profit marge ?

I don't think so. They surely won't reach the profit highscore, but they surely will not lead TLC into bankruptcy.

So, the question isn't "why should make TLC additional train sets". The question is "why does TLC not make them".

Sales and profit are important reasons to decide whether to produce XY or not.

But, they are not the only ones. Again, have a look at the 564 (source: brickset) sets for 2013.

Do you think that every single one will reach high sales and high profit ?

Do you think that every single one has come into existence only because of thinking about sales and profit ?

If your aim is to have the set widely available for parents and grandparents to buy as gifts, then stores will only stock it if they believe it will sell well. I'm pretty sure the buyers for the stores don't like to stock individual carriages since they have never sold as well as complete train sets. The answer I've been given several times by various TLG employees of "why does TLC not make them" is because they don't sell well.

Well, this proves that there is demand for such stuff. And I guess it is just of the top of the iceberg, because eBay is only a part of the market, and not the whole market.

Who knows how many people don't buy, simply because of there are no offers in the official line-up.

I place more faith in TLC's ability to know (since they do actually do market research) than your guess of eBay being the tip of the iceberg. A friend of mine is a LEGO reseller, and he says LEGO really doesn't care about eBay resales, because they've already made their profit on the set. Selling individual cars might actually just spread sales away from the larger sets, across a wider range of sets with higher production, logistics and warehousing costs.

I am not surprised to hear that. No released Cuusoo model ever appealed to me.

And the fan bases for those sets are bigger than for trains since no train has reached 10,000 votes on Cusoo. That should illustrate the problem with your suggestions.

I am wondering why this calculation is limited to AFOLs only. There is absolutely no reason for that.

Don't you think that also kids own sets 7938, 7939, 3677 and play with them ?

Don't you think that these kids - as long as they like their lego train - would like to extend their trains without buying another expensive starter kit ?

Don't you think that parents, aunts, uncles, grandparents of these kids would like to buy smaller aditional sets as gifts ?

Today, there are only two options: buy another starter set (too big, too expensive) or to buy from Ebay / Bricklink sellers that decompose the starter sets.

Both options may be valid for some people, but not for the masses.

It's easy to claim that sales would be bad, as long as there is no chance for sales to grow.

You said current times are different because there were more adult fans now, my calculations showed it would be remarkable if they made any huge difference to the sales of a set.

There is only one thing that could us prove right or wrong: if TLC would do it.

If sales were bad 10 years ago, this may not necessary the same today.

So, bad sales from 2003 are not a valid argument in 2013. Times have changed since then.

This was exactly the argument used ten years ago, and the sales were bad then, just as they have been for 50 years. I'm pretty sure to get TLC to do another experiment a fresh idea needs to be put forward, not rehashing the same old idea which is essentially "I want it so lots of others will too".

There are two explanations for the fact that TLC don't make single carriages. The first is they don't think it's the best business decision. The second is they are unaware of the huge demand for these sets and they are making a big mistake. Which one sounds the most plausible given they are one of the largest toy companies in the world with a profit margin that is the envy of many industries?

[Carrera124]

The answer I've been given several times by various TLG employees of "why does TLC not make them" is because they don't sell well.

But there's no proof for it. Actually, no such sets are offered. So no one can say that they won't sell well, just because they did not sell well one decade ago.

I place more faith in TLC's ability to know (since they do actually do market research) than your guess of eBay being the tip of the iceberg.

So you are saying that the results ofTLC's market research are always 100% perfect, correct and never fail?

Then please tell me, why have sales of the "Friends" theme much better than expected? According to you, this should not have happended, because TLC marketing guys and girls know exactly what (and how much) their customers want.

And on the other hand, why are some themes / sets been flogged and sold at loss? It seems as if the marketing people were wrong in these cases, too.

-> I have no doubt that TLC's marketing department knows very much, but they are not perfect. Marketing people are marketing people, but they are not never-failing prophets.

Selling individual cars might actually just spread sales away from the larger sets, across a wider range of sets with higher production, logistics and warehousing costs.

Not a valid argument. Within a range of roundabout 600 new (!) different sets each year, 3 or 4 additonal sets wouldn't have a big influcence on production, logistics and warehousing costs. If this would really be an issue, lots of other sets and themes wouldn't be produced either.

And the fan bases for those sets are bigger than for trains...

No proof for this, just your personal assumption, unless you show some official numbers.

You said current times are different because there were more adult fans now, my calculations showed it would be remarkable if they made any huge difference to the sales of a set.

You forget about the fact that the adult fans did not replace the kids, they are additional buyers.

Moreover, you did not anwser my questions with "yes" or "no", so I'll repeat them:

Please, have a look at the 564 (source: brickset) sets for 2013.

Do you think that every single one will reach high sales and high profit ?

Yes or no ?

Do you think that every single one has come into existence only because of thinking about sales and profit ?

Yes or no ?

Don't you think that also kids own sets 7938, 7939, 3677 and play with them ?

Yes or no ?

Don't you think that these kids - as long as they like their lego train - would like to extend their trains without buying another expensive starter kit ?

Yes or no ?

Don't you think that parents, aunts, uncles, grandparents of these kids would like to buy smaller aditional sets as gifts ?

Yes or no ?

It really would be interesting to know your concrete answers to that questions, instead of repeating "they won't sell". In history, there are lots of examples where people thought that things wouldn't sell, and they were proven wrong.

[Hey Joe]

Hello Joe

I apologise if I offended you it was unintentional as my comment was not aimed in your direction.

Hey, no worries, I wasn't offended, but others may have been, I can't speak for them.

My next post in this thread was going to point out exactly what you have; the fact that EN, Maersk and HE are beautiful sets.

It just blows my mind a bit that they only have four different types of track to run them on (straight, curve, flex and switch). It wouldn't be like that if I were calling the shots, but perhaps that's mistake #1; letting someone who enjoys playing with the product make the big decisions!

Joe

[JopieK]

@Carrera124: stop behaving like a child and keep the discussion positive!

@Hey Joe: thanks for your very positive approach ;)!!! That is what we like :)

Indeed it is indeed strange that the accessories are far behind the very nice sets that LEGO regularly brings out! We should just do something about that ourselves then I guess!!!

I'm at the moment (between typing here ;)) programming a point motor system that can:

a. move points

b. control semaphores / arm signals

c. control decouplers

[Steinkopf]

@Carrera124: stop behaving like a child and keep the discussion positive!

@Hey Joe: thanks for your very positive approach ;)!!! That is what we like :)

Indeed it is indeed strange that the accessories are far behind the very nice sets that LEGO regularly brings out! We should just do something about that ourselves then I guess!!!

Thank you for stepping in JopieK, you saved me from saying something I may have regretted .

I too would like to see us all focus on the positives as we move forward, the vast experience and wealth of knowledge that we have here and can share amongst each other will help the train community grow stronger, sure we may not get a whole heap of shiny new boxes every year but when we are using the worlds most flexible creative medium who needs a set of instructions and a bunch of packaging that will ultimately end up in the rubbish bin .

Edited August 2, 2013 by Steinkopf

[JopieK]

That is of course why I'm also a Maker enthusiast, what the large companies don't provide, we can just do ourselves.

[lightningtiger]

What about a reboot of the train shed from the early 2000's ?

[pinioncorp]

I've said before that I'd like to see a carriage included with the train station offering. Logically, you'd only buy a train station if you have a train, so what not better way to add to your collection?

[jrathfon]

New to the forums, lurked for a while, posted on the "intro" thread and posted about wanting to build a full Constitution from the movie.

I like a couple of sentiments on this thread. The EN, Maersk, and HE are all awesome. I couldn't have hoped for better trains when I was 12 with my "Load 'N Haul".

And yes for the triquel "TRAINS"!!! That'd be awesome.

The way I see the extra carriage thing is there are two separate arguments:

FIRST the old way of looking at things:

And I assume all these sets have a higher profit margin than individual train cars have in the past. Unless you can show me why sales of individual train cars are going to be miraculously different now I don't see a good argument here why they would make them. In fact as LEGO sales in general rise, and LEGO grows, it gets more and more risky and therefore unlikely while they have limited production resources. As others have said, they are barely able to keep up with demand for Friends, which they pretty much know will sell well.

Things like the 9V era Octan Twin Tank Car, the Car Transport Wagon, Rail Crane, Blue Hopper Car, and even the Metroliner Club Car were unique cars (i.e. not a duplicate metroliner add on car from the set). I always see these unique cars not selling well as the reason why individual cars are not produced by LEGO anymore.

My counter arguments to this point however are:

1. I own ALL of those add-on cars. I got them in my early teens (so my parents/relatives bought them for me). They were great presents for my aunts and uncles to get me because they only wanted to shell out $25-40. My parents could shell out the $109 for the Load N' Haul and my relatives could add onto the awesome present, ever increasing my enthusiasm.

2. I feel (interjecting personal opinion) that there would be more support if LEGO coddled (and tried out) fostering a rail system and community, essentially creating their own model railroading culture (aka HO). To some respects they have with the new awesome trains, but in other respects they have failed (i.e. only straight, curve, and point tracks). This system/community approach may have failed before (12v), but that was before my time, and also 30 years ago... maybe it's time to try in a different era. I know the counterpoint to this is the "Cuuso" argument. But that's where I say fostering a community/following would increase the numbers on things like the "Cuuso Conundrum".

The SECOND overall argument: I understand LEGO is trying to make a profit and has limited production lines, etc. BUT (here come's the argument): If you are already producing the extra car (Metroliner, Red Passenger Train, Emerald Night), how much "extra" resources does it really take to produce the DUPLICATE car? Printing a box, throwing in instruction booklet #2 (make them ahead of time so #2 is JUST the extra car), and stocking this box. Make it an "exclusive" product (LEGO store only). I feel (personal opinion (up for debate)) LEGO would see more sales of say the 2nd EN carriage than the increase from people buying 2-3 sets for that extra carriage (cause this is extreme in price and it's probably just the very odd AFOL train fan). That 2nd carriage would be more approachable (price and hassle) for the AFOL, the kid with allowance money, and the parents who could care less about ebaying 3 extra EN locos. To bolster my FIRST and SECOND arguments, this 2nd carriage set would further the system/community and would also increase profitability of the train line in general (i.e. selling more 2nd carriage sets than 2nd and 3rd extra full sets to complete a train).

To sum it up, I really feel the duplicate carriage argument is a separate argument that has not been tried in the newer landscape. I feel supporting the train system/community (new track options, semaphores, trackside structures, additional train options), creating a HO like following is a FRESH idea and *could be profitable if done strategically (cough, cross platform promotion: CITY, Lone Ranger, modulars, architecture, even space!).

[daveybai]

What about a reboot of the train shed from the early 2000's ?

I'd be all for that. I've found that one of the harder sets to find on Bricklink, and its a lot of parts to source "a la carte". Eventually I'll have enough to build my own MOC, but a new official train shed would be great!

[Dan-147]

To sum it up, I really feel the duplicate carriage argument is a separate argument that has not been tried in the newer landscape. I feel supporting the train system/community (new track options, semaphores, trackside structures, additional train options), creating a HO like following is a FRESH idea and *could be profitable if done strategically (cough, cross platform promotion: CITY, Lone Ranger, modulars, architecture, even space!).

While I would really love for LEGO to offer all the train accesories that the HO community have acess to (track options, semaphores, trackside structures, etc.) I can't imagine that it will happen. Most HO companies are small with very tight profit margins. Even the big players like Walthers, Marklin and Bachmann have to keep large stocks that don't move very fast; exactly the opposite of LEGO's business pattern.

I remember in the 2000's when the individual train sets came out, I wanted to buy multiple copies. After taking a good look at them, I only bought a few and then decided that I would rather MOC my trains and get exactly what I wanted. It was actually a lot more fun that way. I realized that not all train fans wanted to MOC so I decided to offer my modest efforts to the community (check out Railbricks.com if interested). Since then, I check out new offerings from LEGO. I did buy the Emerald Night and the Maersk Train. I considered buying the Horizon Express for a while but decided against it because it didn't really fit interest with what I was trying to do (American freight). I have to admit thought that it is a really great set. The other recent train offerings didn't really interest me except as a source of parts.

So that's my recent experience with LEGO trains. I realize that it is not representative of anyone else's but it does show how hard it can be for LEGO to gauge the AFOL community's interest.

Dan-147

[Steinkopf]

2. I feel (interjecting personal opinion) that there would be more support if LEGO coddled (and tried out) fostering a rail system and community, essentially creating their own model railroading culture (aka HO). To some respects they have with the new awesome trains, but in other respects they have failed (i.e. only straight, curve, and point tracks). This system/community approach may have failed before (12v), but that was before my time, and also 30 years ago... maybe it's time to try in a different era. I know the counterpoint to this is the "Cuuso" argument. But that's where I say fostering a community/following would increase the numbers on things like the "Cuuso Conundrum".

Welcome to the forum jrathfon, with regards to LEGO trying to foster their own model railroading culture this is very difficult to implement, it is also moving against their core business model in that LEGO is a construction toy company that provides a broad spectrum of themes to their fanbase, rather than being a specialist manufacturer which the model train manufacturers are. I will add though that LEGO has been proactive with promoting LEGO trains to the public through the assistance that it has given to LEGO Train Clubs around the world, this comes in the form of LUGBULK as well as promotional material and a number of other things, I know this from my own personal involvement.

Another thing is that LEGO has never seen itself as a model train manufacturer in any way shape or form, they see themselves for what they are a toy manufacturer, the provision of LEGO trains is more as a supplementary item that helps take LEGO city to a new level by providing an automated interactive element. This is where the LEGO Train Clubs step in and play their part, the unofficial role for the LTC is to help promote LEGO Trains as a viable alternative to traditional model railways, this is done via public events such as model railways exhibitions and other displays. One of my core aims has been to show parents what is possible with LEGO trains and how you can integrate them in with the kids LEGO collection to create their own layout, model railways is an expensive hobby to get into and parents have to divert money they spend on other toys such as LEGO to finance it. What I do is explain that with LEGO Trains you can have the best of both worlds, you can integrate an existing toy collection to take it too the next level, there is also the flexibility in that the children can create what ever they want and are not limited to the design and parts of a model kit. There is also the fact that with LEGO Trains you don't need paint or glues and the other stuff that you use in model railways which makes it a safer alternative, and last of all you don't have to mount it all on a big baseboard that takes up room you can set it up on the floor any way you like and when your finished you can tidy it up and store it in boxes taking up far less room.

Edited August 2, 2013 by Steinkopf