Excalibur Mafia 4 - Day Two

[Bob]

Excalibur Mafia 4

Day Two: Shattered

It was late at night. Commander Te'voka (Darkdragon) was in engineering, unable to sleep.

"If it's late at night, why is it so bright?" Te'voka asked.

Because it's a spaceship.

Te'voka turned to an engineering panel, ensuring that everything is as it should be. They didn't hear the footsteps of an unknown individual approaching them.

Blam!

With that, Te'voka was dead.

The next morning, the crew assembled in engineering. For some reason, despite being on a spaceship, the room was much brighter, almost as if natural light somehow appeared.

"It appears Commander Te'voka was shot with a phaser from behind." Dr. Macdougal said. "They likely never felt it."

"What was Te'voka's alignment?" Dustin asked.

Realizing there was no NPC of authority present to dispense information, a voice suddenly boomed out from nowhere.

Te'voka was a member of the town!

---

Players (7):

Lt. Commander Dustin Pherson - Duvors

Lt. Commander Hiveon Cheseelo - Zepher

Lt. Commander Dr. Hailey Macdougal - Tariq j

Lieutenant James Riley - Rumble Strike

Lieutenant Christine Arnold - EmersonDAnite

Lieutenant Reechsavo Heecan - Jimmynick   (yet to confirm)
 
Lieutenant Gabriel Fenton - KotZ

Dead (1):

Commander Te'voka - Darkdragon (Town)

Rules:
1) You are either Town or Corrupted. The town need to eliminate the mafia and the mafia need to outnumber the town. In the hopefully unlikely event of a parity, the mafia will win. There are no third parties.
2) A game day will last 72 hours. You may vote after 24 hours. Even if a majority vote is achieved, the day will not end early. Nights will last at most 48 hours, during which you can send in your night actions. 
     3a) Do not talk about the game outside of the threads.
3) Each day you can vote to lynch a player. Voting is mandatory. It should be done in this fashion: 
                     Vote: Character (Player)
                     Unvote: Character (Player)
    Ensure your vote is in bold so I don't miss it please!
4) The alignment of players who have been lynched, as well as those who may have died during the night, will be revealed at the beginning of the next day. 
5) You may not quote or pretend to quote anything sent to you by the game host via PM. This includes the details of your character and role, as well as any night actions results. Role claims and reporting of results are acceptable, but in your own words only.
6) If you die, you may not post in thread or discuss the game with any players. Any information you had is not allowed to be passed on under any circumstances. 
7) Don't edit your posts, please!
8) Please try to post every day!

[EmersonDAnite]

A darn shame. They were a credit to their field. We will have to work carefully to catch the culprit

[Duvors]

Hmmm. If I remember correctly they didn't do much yesterday. This likely means that they were chosen specifically because their death wouldn't provide us with useful information.

[Rumble Strike]

Nobody did much yesterday, it was far too quiet and that means the Corrupted can just hide. We need more from everyone now or we are just going to be picked off one by one.

[KotZ]

Well that sucks. Te'voka didn't even vote yesterday, and nobody voted for Te'voka, so that's difficult to go off of.

[Rumble Strike]

Not much to go off at all, Te'voka only spoke up once all day. Never got involved in either the 'how many are we facing' discussion or the 'first day phasing' discussion, which is surprising for a crew member who is so experienced. As mentioned, they didn't vote either, and Lt. Arnold and Lt Heecan also failed to vote.

[KotZ]

3 hours ago, Rumble Strike said:

Not much to go off at all, Te'voka only spoke up once all day. Never got involved in either the 'how many are we facing' discussion or the 'first day phasing' discussion, which is surprising for a crew member who is so experienced. As mentioned, they didn't vote either, and Lt. Arnold and Lt Heecan also failed to vote.

I mean is it worth voting for one of them then?

[Duvors]

22 minutes ago, KotZ said:

I mean is it worth voting for one of them then?

It'll give us something to go off of, and it's no more likely to cause us harm than voting for anyone else. We have nothing to gain from continuing to dither.

[Rumble Strike]

An enemy team working together is unlikely to allow one of them to not vote when it's mandatory, it is basic fitting in tactics. If anything I would be more suspicious of those who voted.

[Tariq j]

4 hours ago, KotZ said:

I mean is it worth voting for one of them then?

Maybe. As Dustin says, we need something to go off. I want to have a look back at Day One and see if I can find anything of use.

In the meantime would anyone care for a cough sweet? I have a few spare.

[Zepher]

I have something potentially controversial that will at the very least lead to discussion. Assuming that the investigator is still alive, when would be a good time for them to reveal themselves? I used to serve aboard ships with very large crews, and an early reveal was never a good idea. But I recently served aboard a ship with a crew about the same size as this, and we did a simulation of a similar situation, and the town quickly lost due to entire lack of information.

Let me game out a scenario. This requires a LOT of assumptions. First, that there is both an investigator and a doctor. Second, that both are still alive, and third, that the investigator was successful last night.

If that is true, the investigator knows one person is for sure town or corrupted by now. They can reveal themselves, and they will be able to clear one person as town (I don't think they should reveal who necessarily) or just straight up tell us one scum. This night, the doctor can protect the investigator. That would safely give us the alignment of two people. Even if the doctor is killed, the investigator has done an enormous amount of work. Day 3 (assuming a bad lynch today and a kill in the night) there would still be 3 town (all confirmed, hopefully) and two scum, which is a winning scenario.

I'm aware this is, again, many assumptions, but inaction got us killed in the Main Street Mafia simulation my last crew engaged in. Bold moves are certainly not useful on Day One, but I think a bold move as early as today, or at the very very latest tomorrow, is what is required to win. What is everyone's thoughts?

[Rumble Strike]

In that Main Street Mafia simulation the dashing, animal loving investigator (who was a one shot only) was killed night one. The prior simulation about Pirates also lost the investigator early, albeit to a lynch. However I believe that investigator was also not a 'regular' investigator, and his action took longer than one night.

 

So with Te'voka dead, we may have  already lost our investigator, and won't get any information. It would certainly be a bold move to reveal themselves if we do have one, but I am not sure yet that we require that nuclear option.

[Tariq j]

2 hours ago, Rumble Strike said:

An enemy team working together is unlikely to allow one of them to not vote when it's mandatory, it is basic fitting in tactics. If anything I would be more suspicious of those who voted.

But didn’t you vote yesterday?

2 minutes ago, Zepher said:

I'm aware this is, again, many assumptions, but inaction got us killed in the Main Street Mafia simulation my last crew engaged in. Bold moves are certainly not useful on Day One, but I think a bold move as early as today, or at the very very latest tomorrow, is what is required to win. What is everyone's thoughts?

I’m very mixed. I think it’s a brave decision that could lead us to victory but it relies on a lot of assumptions and “what if” scenarios. How do we know Commander Tekvo wasn’t the Doctor or the Investigator? If Tekvo was the Doctor we’d be putting our investigator into serious trouble. 

[Rumble Strike]

21 minutes ago, Tariq j said:

But didn’t you vote yesterday?

I did indeed, as it is mandatory to do so. It will be interesting to see if there are any penalties for not voting.  I can't imagine any Scum putting that kind of pressure on themselves when it could so easily be avoided and we were intentionally trying to spread the vote. 

Given how quiet the day was, I didn't think we should try to form a consensus, stated that, and voted for the guy who had just voted.

[Duvors]

4 hours ago, Rumble Strike said:

An enemy team working together is unlikely to allow one of them to not vote when it's mandatory, it is basic fitting in tactics. If anything I would be more suspicious of those who voted.

It could simply be that one or both of them wasn't active while the vote was open. Activity here has been sparse.

 

1 hour ago, Zepher said:

I have something potentially controversial that will at the very least lead to discussion. Assuming that the investigator is still alive, when would be a good time for them to reveal themselves? I used to serve aboard ships with very large crews, and an early reveal was never a good idea. But I recently served aboard a ship with a crew about the same size as this, and we did a simulation of a similar situation, and the town quickly lost due to entire lack of information.

Let me game out a scenario. This requires a LOT of assumptions. First, that there is both an investigator and a doctor. Second, that both are still alive, and third, that the investigator was successful last night.

If that is true, the investigator knows one person is for sure town or corrupted by now. They can reveal themselves, and they will be able to clear one person as town (I don't think they should reveal who necessarily) or just straight up tell us one scum. This night, the doctor can protect the investigator. That would safely give us the alignment of two people. Even if the doctor is killed, the investigator has done an enormous amount of work. Day 3 (assuming a bad lynch today and a kill in the night) there would still be 3 town (all confirmed, hopefully) and two scum, which is a winning scenario.

I'm aware this is, again, many assumptions, but inaction got us killed in the Main Street Mafia simulation my last crew engaged in. Bold moves are certainly not useful on Day One, but I think a bold move as early as today, or at the very very latest tomorrow, is what is required to win. What is everyone's thoughts?

Assuming that there is a doctor. It may be a worthwhile course of action, but I personally am leery of the idea. Especially since even if both of those roles are present, it's possible one or both were assigned to players with low activity. This would make it dangerously likely that they would miss their window for acting during the night.

 

46 minutes ago, Rumble Strike said:

I did indeed, as it is mandatory to do so. It will be interesting to see if there are any penalties for not voting.  I can't imagine any Scum putting that kind of pressure on themselves when it could so easily be avoided and we were intentionally trying to spread the vote. 

Given how quiet the day was, I didn't think we should try to form a consensus, stated that, and voted for the guy who had just voted.

In hindsight, I worry that spreading the vote was the wrong course of action. While the chances were low, we might have gotten one of them. The corrupted, on the other hand, aren't going to kill themselves.

[jimmynick]

20 hours ago, Bob said:

Realizing there was no NPC of authority present to dispense information, a voice suddenly boomed out from nowhere.

WTF??

1 hour ago, Zepher said:

But I recently served aboard a ship with a crew about the same size as this, and we did a simulation of a similar situation, and the town quickly lost due to entire lack of information.

Risky strategy but may be worth it because there are so few of us. Since we are just seven, this process will ultimately not take very long — so naturally there's a limit to the number of investigations can be made. Assuming there is a doctor on board this ship, revealing last night's investigation result would be a good shout.

1 hour ago, Rumble Strike said:

So with Te'voka dead, we may have  already lost our investigator

Literally clutching at straws here. Are you begging someone to speak up and say "no, I'm the investigator!" simply to spite you? If we want information we need to have a reasoned argument to ask for it.

[EmersonDAnite]

28 minutes ago, Duvors said:

In hindsight, I worry that spreading the vote was the wrong course of action. While the chances were low, we might have gotten one of them. The corrupted, on the other hand, aren't going to kill themselves.

If we assume a doctor and an investigator, wouldn't we have had equal odds of picking one of them or one of the corrupted? We might have ended up forcing our heros to expose themselves too early.

[Duvors]

54 minutes ago, EmersonDAnite said:

If we assume a doctor and an investigator, wouldn't we have had equal odds of picking one of them or one of the corrupted? We might have ended up forcing our heros to expose themselves too early.

True enough, but I don't think there is a Doctor on board to begin with. Commander Cheseelo is making a wild guess without evidence. An investigator is a standard fixture of these things, and there's always a chance they'll be voted out accidentally, but there's a higher chance of them dying in the night with no hope of getting one of the bad guys instead.
Unless there's a vigilante, but that's its own can of worms.

[Zepher]

Out of the standard roles in simulations, I thought Investigator is most likely, and Doctor second most likely. Two town power roles (again, those are the most common), four vanilla, two scum. That feels like the most obvious set-up to me. That feels a minor assumption. The larger assumption is that both are still alive, and, as others have said, active.

That being said, I was hoping to make conversation, and it seems to have worked - it's giving us something to debate at least. I'm surprised that so many people are so opposed to the idea. Even at risk of losing the investigator if there is no doctor, or a dead doctor, this isn't a bad number's game. We get two confirmed townies today, making our margin of errors much smaller than it would be under normal circumstances. And if there is a living doctor, we're sitting extremely pretty.

Again, I have seen inaction cripple a group this small before - it will take very little for the corrupted to gain the upper hand if everyone sits around. I'm not sure this plan is best - perhaps tomorrow is best for a reveal (though that still feels like a narrow path to victory, and banks on the investigator surviving).

For those opposed, what other course of action do you propose?

3 hours ago, Tariq j said:

But didn’t you vote yesterday?

I’m very mixed. I think it’s a brave decision that could lead us to victory but it relies on a lot of assumptions and “what if” scenarios. How do we know Commander Tekvo wasn’t the Doctor or the Investigator? If Tekvo was the Doctor we’d be putting our investigator into serious trouble. 

And, again, in larger simulations you're 100% correct, this would be a crazy nuclear option. But for some perspective: if we fail to lynch today, or even if we lynch a corrupted, there is a 20% chance they kill the investigator randomly. If we lynch a town (likely with little information, as corrupted can guide us especially with how little we have to go on) there is a 25% chance they are killed in the night, and then it is 2 corrupted versus 3 town tomorrow - nearly unwinnable. It's a nuclear option that is both early and late in the game, in a sense.

And, a final note, as Lt. Riley points out, the investigator may only get one shot at an investigation. But if that's the case, no need to let the corrupted know that!

[Bob]

You may now vote! With 7 players, a majority of 4 is required.

[Duvors]

2 hours ago, Zepher said:

Out of the standard roles in simulations, I thought Investigator is most likely, and Doctor second most likely. Two town power roles (again, those are the most common), four vanilla, two scum. That feels like the most obvious set-up to me. That feels a minor assumption. The larger assumption is that both are still alive, and, as others have said, active.

That being said, I was hoping to make conversation, and it seems to have worked - it's giving us something to debate at least. I'm surprised that so many people are so opposed to the idea. Even at risk of losing the investigator if there is no doctor, or a dead doctor, this isn't a bad number's game. We get two confirmed townies today, making our margin of errors much smaller than it would be under normal circumstances. And if there is a living doctor, we're sitting extremely pretty.

Again, I have seen inaction cripple a group this small before - it will take very little for the corrupted to gain the upper hand if everyone sits around. I'm not sure this plan is best - perhaps tomorrow is best for a reveal (though that still feels like a narrow path to victory, and banks on the investigator surviving).

For those opposed, what other course of action do you propose?

I'd always thought that Vigilante is the second most common 'special' role, but you have more experience I guess. A killer crew member would be odd with this few people.

In truth, I don't have any alternate plan to propose. I just think there's a far higher likelihood of a publicly revealed investigator getting killed off than of there being a doctor, and investigators are better the longer they're able to work.

3 hours ago, Zepher said:

And, a final note, as Lt. Riley points out, the investigator may only get one shot at an investigation. But if that's the case, no need to let the corrupted know that!

I'm having a little difficulty parsing this: how does this statement not go against your own proposed action?

As for my vote:

Vote: Lt. Commander Dr. Hailey Macdougal (Tariq j)

The rationale behind this one is quite simple: they haven't done anything. They haven't contributed meaningfully to the discussion at all, simply recapitulating points made by others and saying fluffy role-play lines.

[Rumble Strike]

10 hours ago, jimmynick said:

 

Literally clutching at straws here. Are you begging someone to speak up and say "no, I'm the investigator!" simply to spite you? If we want information we need to have a reasoned argument to ask for it.

I just said in the entire post that I didn't think it was a good idea for the investigator to reveal themselves yet, I am certainly not asking anyone to reveal themselves. However we are now at the voting stage and so far there is not much to go on. I appreciate Cheseelo's attempt to force more discussion, that is always a positive as it draws people into taking a position.

Maybe we do have to deal with the fact we have a smaller crew and try some out of the box thinking, or we are unlikely to reach a consensus again. 

For what it's worth, I can definitely see where Pherson is coming from with regards to Macdougal. 

[Tariq j]

6 hours ago, Duvors said:

 

Vote: Lt. Commander Dr. Hailey Macdougal (Tariq j)

The rationale behind this one is quite simple: they haven't done anything. They haven't contributed meaningfully to the discussion at all, simply recapitulating points made by others and saying fluffy role-play lines.

But I have done something. I responded to Cheseelo’s idea about the investigator. I see his point about the investigator though. If we had least two townies confirmed by today then we have a better chance of lynching a corrupted. What about Lt. Fenton? As far as I can see he hasn’t responded to anything that’s happened over the last 12 hours. 

[jimmynick]

10 hours ago, Zepher said:

Out of the standard roles in simulations, I thought Investigator is most likely, and Doctor second most likely.

A more than reasonable surmise but we'll have to see if your case is good enough to sway anyone with results from their power roles.

[Duvors]

4 hours ago, Tariq j said:

But I have done something. I responded to Cheseelo’s idea about the investigator. I see his point about the investigator though. If we had least two townies confirmed by today then we have a better chance of lynching a corrupted. What about Lt. Fenton? As far as I can see he hasn’t responded to anything that’s happened over the last 12 hours. 

Honestly, I don't consider inactivity to be an indicator of guilt. Corrupted are far more likely to be active players, and my accusation was based primarily on the idea that you were one of the more active players, but have contributed little to the discussion.
For what it's worth, your response to Cheseelo was much the same as Lt. Riley's, who spoke before you.