Secret Enemies - Day One

[fhomess]

As much as I trust anyone. So why should I trust you over her?

Nowhere did I say anyone should trust me or that if I were nominated that you should vote for me. I think you should because I know I'm trustworthy, but I certainly wouldn't expect you to or even expect to have any hope of convincing you of that at this stage.

I would rather see myself TCC than somebody else, but if everyone voted "No" on anyone other than themselves there would never be a TCC and the scum would beat us easily.

If everyone voted "yes" the scum would beat us more easily. we have 3 chances to elect someone each day. It seems to me that we ought to make use of them somewhat. I don't think we will learn much from the specific yes/no votes today, but rather from the reasoning behind the votes.

Exactly this. Right now I just want to test the waters, see how this whole game exactly plays, and although I'd like for the TCC to be myself, that's not who was nominated. Better to mess up once than to continually mess up over and over due to some insane paranoia. This isn't Mafia, people. We have a lot more room for error here.

I'm not sure we do. We have less information with which to find the scum and therefore we need to be more aggressive in trying to understand the voting patterns.

[Umbra-Manis]

This is a new game, and we basically have no idea what we're doing.

-I don't think we gain anything by saying, "It should have been me" etc.

-The real question here, is do we agree with ChromeKnight's reasoning behind picking his chair, or do we want an entirely new mayor and TCC?

[JackJonespaw]

-The real question here, is do we agree with ChromeKnight's reasoning behind picking his chair, or do we want an entirely new mayor and TCC?

I think, just like a Day 1 lynch, there's no real way the townies can know, so unless ChromeKnight is a Mafia and picked you because you're also a Mafia (which is possible, albeit very unlikely), I'm fine with where we are now.

[jluck]

Look, can any of us really be considered experienced at this game?

I'll vote Yes.

I think sums up the entire debate. I'll vote yes because I gain nothing from someone else being TCC instead.

[Peanuts]

Nowhere did I say anyone should trust me or that if I were nominated that you should vote for me. I think you should because I know I'm trustworthy, but I certainly wouldn't expect you to or even expect to have any hope of convincing you of that at this stage.

If everyone voted "yes" the scum would beat us more easily. we have 3 chances to elect someone each day. It seems to me that we ought to make use of them somewhat. I don't think we will learn much from the specific yes/no votes today, but rather from the reasoning behind the votes.

I'm not sure we do. We have less information with which to find the scum and therefore we need to be more aggressive in trying to understand the voting patterns.

We can get some information from the reasoning behind the votes today, in particular the "No" votes. But I doubt it's worth it to overturn Lindsey just so we can get more voting patterns. The people who voted "Yes" will probably just vote "Yes" again and fly under the radar, and the people who voted "No" because Lindsey is too inexperienced should vote "Yes" to an experienced candidate and "No" to an unexperienced one. I believe the voting patterns we observe now will just duplicate, it's too easy to fly under the radar for the scum.

This is like a day one lynch, except without the bitter taste of lynching what is probably a loyal townie. There is a chance of more than 75% that the three random cards include at least one town policy, so if both our mayor and our TCC are town, that's the chance we will see a townie policy enabled, which is very good for us. If our mayor is town, but our TCC is scum, that doesn't change much, because if the TCC enables a scum policy when there was a town policy available, our mayor should tell us. If the mayor is scum, things get a little more hazy, and we might end up with a scum policy (and a wasted investigation).

[Chromeknight]

I agree with DragonFire because of his hat speech, and I still think our mayor is odd. But they are very different people.

I know that now.

Huh? Wha?

I'm odd?

For essentially picking a name based on who is sitting where at the council table? If we were face to face. I'd be able to see who's grinning shiftily and who is looking at each other slyly. As it is, I've only got the dumbness of posts to go on and you're up there.

Near as I read, you think dragonfire is odd for his insistence that the TCC be 'experienced' but then, having worked out that I'm the mayor not him, the oddness is transferred to me without reasoning.

On what basis would you have me assign the chair?

[Dragonfire]

Can you tell us how experience matters here? In my opinion, the town council chair should pass a town law if possible and a scum law if two scum laws are the only two options. Maybe there is more strategy to it later in the game, given that scum laws can give us actions, but at this point I don't think we should blow one of our few investigates on day one. And even if a scum law is passed, the mayor decides who is investigated, not the TCC. I think the TCC's choice should be simple. What matters is that the TCC is a townie, not how experienced they are. I can understand why you should not vote right now though, we have 24 hours, so no need to vote prematurely...

The question is, how will the person even know whether the laws are town or scum? Do they have labels on?

I'm going to vote Yes though, because I don't see the benefit in wasting time choosing someone else, and it seems like we're going to get nowhere until we try a "test run" of this whole policy business and see how it all works out. Probability-wise Lindsey is likely to be town, and I've come to the conclusion that in this sort of situation, we're all inexperienced. So I've expressed my concerns, but I'm not going to hinder the town by obstinately abstaining when we all need to work together to figure out what kind of odd situation we've got ourselves into.

[Chromeknight]

The question is, how will the person even know whether the laws are town or scum? Do they have labels on?

Short answer, yes.

We have an stack of policies to go through.

Each day, The Govenor Bob will draw three policies, which are labeled.

The mayor passes two of those three to the chair. The chair chooses one and it becomes law.

The policy may give powers to the mayor to use that day.

As town we want town policies passed (although town favoured policies grant no powers).

The mayor and chair aren't allowed to confer while making the decision about which policy to enact. And we expect the scum to lie about what policies Guv Bob handed them in order to cover why they enacted a scum policy.

[JackJonespaw]

The question is, how will the person even know whether the laws are town or scum? Do they have labels on?

From what I've read, I don't think so. It's just three policies that only Bob knows the alignments of.

Basically Bob's holding the cards, and they can only see the backs of them.

[Bob]

Somehow I fail to see how it is designed to be very accusatory, as we can't lynch anyone and we don't have any voting patterns to analyse or night action results to rely upon. Could the host please elaborate on his statement?

You're meant to doubt everyone since, unless you're mafia, you will never know who is what until the conclusion. You do have different patterns to analyze - the policy patterns.

From what I've read, I don't think so. It's just three policies that only Bob knows the alignments of.

Basically Bob's holding the cards, and they can only see the backs of them.

Not quite. The player will know the alignments of each cards. Example. Let's say today I draw two mafia and a town card. I will tell the Mayor that I have drawn those three cards and then he will tell me which of the three he wants discarded. Then I will tell the TCC the two remaining cards and he will choose which one to enact.

Only the Mayor and TCC will know the cards and they are not allowed to post in the thread until the policy is enacted.

[Khscarymovie4]

From what I've read, I don't think so. It's just three policies that only Bob knows the alignments of.

Basically Bob's holding the cards, and they can only see the backs of them.

I have seen videos of something like this that happened in another town on youtube. (I watched a youtube video of people playing the game.) In the video both the mayor (President) and Town Council Chair (Chancellor) knew what policy's the cards were, but this is a different town, things could be different.

[Actor Builder]

Huh? Wha?

I'm odd?

For essentially picking a name based on who is sitting where at the council table? If we were face to face. I'd be able to see who's grinning shiftily and who is looking at each other slyly. As it is, I've only got the dumbness of posts to go on and you're up there.

Near as I read, you think dragonfire is odd for his insistence that the TCC be 'experienced' but then, having worked out that I'm the mayor not him, the oddness is transferred to me without reasoning.

On what basis would you have me assign the chair?

No no, Mayor Ed! I simply referred to the probability that you would be the Mayor!

According to some, the odds are 1 in 12!

Therefor, whoever is the 1, is odd!

So, being the 1 in 12, you are the odd one!

Those are the odds!

... to figure out what kind of odd situation we've got ourselves into.

See? The odds are everywhere!

[fhomess]

Ralph, do you have anything constructive to add to the conversation? Do you think the No votes are automatically suspicious?

[Bob]

Vote Count:

Yes (8): Chromeknight, Peanuts, Khscarymovie4, JackJonesPaw, Tariq j, Actor Builder, jluck, Dragonfire

No (2): mediumsnowman, fhomess

The vote passes due to a majority. Lindsey Green / Khscarymovie4 is now the Town Council Chair. If I missed anybody please let me know. In the future, please bold your vote and make it very obvious.

Three policies will now be drawn and given to Chromeknight. He will then pick two of the three and pass them on to Khscarymovie4, who will then select which policy to put down. After this the day will continue for another 24 hours (this is down from 48)

[Dragonfire]

Not quite. The player will know the alignments of each cards. Example. Let's say today I draw two mafia and a town card. I will tell the Mayor that I have drawn those three cards and then he will tell me which of the three he wants discarded. Then I will tell the TCC the two remaining cards and he will choose which one to enact.

Only the Mayor and TCC will know the cards and they are not allowed to post in the thread until the policy is enacted.

Quick question: is there anything to the policies except from their alignment? For instance, would the mayor be given three cards saying (for example) "Town, Town, Mafia" or would they be given three cards with actual, written policy statements on them? And would they both know for certain whether a particular policy is Town of Mafia?

[Bob]

Important: Chromeknight and Khscarymovie4 are unable to post in this thread until the policy is selected!

Quick question: is there anything to the policies except from their alignment? For instance, would the mayor be given three cards saying (for example) "Town, Town, Mafia" or would they be given three cards with actual, written policy statements on them? And would they both know for certain whether a particular policy is Town of Mafia?

The cards say either "Mafia!" or "Town!" on them in pencil. I cut them out myself neat and nice myself. You will see what the cards look like after the TCC has picked.

(thanks to whoever first abbreviated Town Council Chair to TCC, it's made it so much easier!)

[Bob]

"I've decided which card to place down." Lindsey said.

The card grew to a massive size and it was revealed that a Town policy had been enacted!

"Excellent work." Bob said. "One out of the Five necessary town cards has been played."

Behind him, a few citizens were amazed at how a 1x2 tile grew into a huge card. A bicyclist looked annoyed that her route had been obstructed by a piece of paper.

~~~

The day will remain open for 24 hours more. During this time, you may discuss what you think this means and how it makes the two players look. Chromeknight and Khscarymovie4 may now post in here is well and can disclose which cards were given to them and how it makes the other player look. I understand this is a new game, so experiment to your hearts desire. This is not mafia, you have no danger of being lynched if you say something crazy.

Since I don't want to have a heavy hand in this and give things away, I will allow the players that have played this game before to metagame and explain what this result might mean.

[Peanuts]

Okay, so we have completed 20% of our victory condition. I guess the most important question now is whether the mayor and the TCC should reveal the cards they were dealt. I say they should, I don't see how that information benefits the scum, but it can help us get a read on our mayor and our TCC.

[Khscarymovie4]

I was given both a mafia and town card.

[JackJonespaw]

I was given both a mafia and town card.

So then you picked town then, obviously. I feel like this pretty much solidifies you as town, as there's no benefit for the Mafia posting a town policy, that I can see.

Then the question is, what did ChromeKnight get?

[Umbra-Manis]

Well done lindsey!

The thing is, if Chromeknight is scum he'll probably say he recieved two mafias and a town, when in reality he had two towns and a mafia. Although if he was scum, he likely would have picked another scummo as his TCC.

[Dragonfire]

Important: Chromeknight and Khscarymovie4 are unable to post in this thread until the policy is selected!

The cards say either "Mafia!" or "Town!" on them in pencil. I cut them out myself neat and nice myself. You will see what the cards look like after the TCC has picked.

(thanks to whoever first abbreviated Town Council Chair to TCC, it's made it so much easier!)

Thanks for the clarification!

So then you picked town then, obviously. I feel like this pretty much solidifies you as town, as there's no benefit for the Mafia posting a town policy, that I can see.

I initially would be inclined to agree with this, but there's something else I just thought of. Say a town Mayor picks a scum to be the TCC (not referring to either Lindsey or Edward, just making a general hypothesis). Then say the town Mayor is given Town, Mafia, Mafia and selects Town and Mafia to be given to the TCC. If the scum TCC was then to select the Mafia policy, then the Mayor could reveal that they sent a Town policy to the TCC, thus confirming the TCC as scum for choosing a mafia policy. Therefore a scum TCC, upon being sent one of each type of policy, is effectively forced to choose the Town policy to avoid confirming themselves as scum (provided the Mayor is town). If the Mayor is scum, this changes things and they could lie to back their teammate up.

To conclude, I don't think this "solidifies" Lindsey as town, since if Edward is town Lindsey would choose the Town policy regardless of her own alignment. What I think this does tell us for certain is that Edward and Lindsey are not both scum.

The thing is, if Chromeknight is scum he'll probably say he recieved two mafias and a town, when in reality he had two towns and a mafia. Although if he was scum, he likely would have picked another scummo as his TCC.

And there you go, getting into WIFOM territory. Would a scum Mayor pick a scum to be the TCC? Clever, or too risky? Either way, as I said above it's definite that they are not both scum, and quite likely that Edward is town (since scum-Edward would have no reason to send on a Town policy to Lindsey unless he received two Town policies initially, which is very statistically unlikely since there are only 5 town policies to start with).

[jluck]

I'm not sure how to read into things but in my opinion they both look townie to me. Chrome could have picked a scum TCC and Kh could have picked a Mafia card. Neither did. Chrome, can you confirm what cards you were given and what cards you passed on?

[Actor Builder]

..it's definite that they are not both scum...

But what if, however unlikely and improbable (Someone who likes arithmetic can calculate the odds!), Our Mayor Ed was given not one, not two, but three Town Cards! Then, Lindsey, our inexperienced and therefor undefined chair, was given not one, but two Town Cards, selected one, and lied about her given selection!

That is an idea! I don't think it's extremely likely, and in fact, the odds would say it's odd, but it is an idea!

So, it may be probable and likely, but not definite!

[Peanuts]

I initially would be inclined to agree with this, but there's something else I just thought of. Say a town Mayor picks a scum to be the TCC (not referring to either Lindsey or Edward, just making a general hypothesis). Then say the town Mayor is given Town, Mafia, Mafia and selects Town and Mafia to be given to the TCC. If the scum TCC was then to select the Mafia policy, then the Mayor could reveal that they sent a Town policy to the TCC, thus confirming the TCC as scum for choosing a mafia policy. Therefore a scum TCC, upon being sent one of each type of policy, is effectively forced to choose the Town policy to avoid confirming themselves as scum (provided the Mayor is town). If the Mayor is scum, this changes things and they could lie to back their teammate up.

To conclude, I don't think this "solidifies" Lindsey as town, since if Edward is town Lindsey would choose the Town policy regardless of her own alignment. What I think this does tell us for certain is that Edward and Lindsey are not both scum.

And there you go, getting into WIFOM territory. Would a scum Mayor pick a scum to be the TCC? Clever, or too risky? Either way, as I said above it's definite that they are not both scum, and quite likely that Edward is town (since scum-Edward would have no reason to send on a Town policy to Lindsey unless he received two Town policies initially, which is very statistically unlikely since there are only 5 town policies to start with).

I agree with this. Given that there is no lynch it might be viable for the scum to enact a scum policy even if they were given a town policy by a town mayor, since we have no immediate way of punishing them and no good way to verify who of the two is lying. Like everyone else I have no experience with this type of game, but my guts tell me it's wrong for them to soft-reveal one of them on day one. And actually, there are six town policies, but we only need to pass five of them.

If we trust Lindsey that the two policies were town and scum, the probabilty for the third one to be town as well is one in three. If we also assume that a scum mayr would have given her two scum cards if possible, that means that the chance of Ed being a townie is about 67%.

Also, I wonder if we will learn the allegiances of the killed people once the fourth and fifth scum policy are passed, like we would in a mafia game.