fhomess

No, just who was remaining. Did you get that bit? In the PM's you implied you didn't know either. Actually, no you're right. That wouldn't make any sense. If the vig is dead, then the SK must've killed Sue. Simple then. You're the SK and Sammy is the scum. That's why you discussed Sue with me in PM last night. You wanted to protect against the situation where there was still a scum remaining. I wish I could do this!

The only way we'd still be here if it were 2 oaks and an SK based on how the rules are worded is if the SK's win condition supercedes the oaks and hasn't been met or we've been given partial information. After all, we did have a rules adjustment when the stumps turned up and the maples had to kill off all the voting oaks. The difference is that didn't fundamentally change the maples' goal, just clarified it in the wake of an unexpected twist. Investigation immunity and bulletproof options are both listed in mafiawiki as potential buffs to an SK. I tend to lean towards naive with Waldorf, as that would allow for both Simon and Sammy to be investigated as oaks. What matters is that at least one of the two has been doing a very good job of lying about their affiliation. It's also notable how they both apparently came up with the same idea of how to check Waldorf's naivety at the same time. So right now, Sammy seems like the logical choice to be voted out as the most likely scum. SK and oaks win. There is, however, something a bit disturbing, though. Sammy told us that he was told that Sue was a dead maple before the day started. I was told the same thing. Simon claims he was not told. The only reason to give us different messages would be if we're on different teams. So perhaps Sammy is the 2nd oak and Simon is a bulletproof scum after all. Maybe after getting cleared by the investigator, he played out in front so that he'd never get lynched, knowing that was the only way to off him? Maybe that's why he didn't care about the vengeful claim at first. Which apparently he lied about?

I agree that this is the best course of action.

I don't like the whole sting idea and Adelaide changing her vote from Sue to Sammy doesn't appear to be based at all on Sammy's response so much as continued analysis of other people's behavior. I feel like she's just trying to capitalize on the distrust between Simon and Sammy. It's clear that Adelaide is doing what she can to avoid her lynch, but it's not at all clear that she's really got an Oak mindset in the process. She doesn't even address the notion that it was a sting in her comments, leaving that up to Simon to share with everyone.

That's not really a very helpful attitude to have. I can understand why you're frustrated with Simon, but it doesn't help us know more. You said yourself that you didn't believe Adelaide is the SK and is the last scum and now you're saying she gave details. The fact that you've shared it here suggests that you don't think those details are relevant enough to convince you to change your vote, but you're essentially asking us to consider switching without them. What's your motivation for sharing partial information and presenting us with a conclusion we've already committed our votes to if not to sow doubt?

Claiming SK in private to avoid a lynch? That's not scummy at all...

So it seems to me that in looking at the various interactions over the past several days, there's enough there to suggest that if there are two scum, they've done a decent job of trying to hide their interactions. I lean strongest to Sue and Adelaide not being on the same team for some of the persistence and the fact they've accused each other. Sammy and Adelaide have had their share of accusations, although it's mostly been Sammy suspicious of Adelaide and less so the other way. Sammy and Sue looks more like this relationship, too, with Sammy accusing Sue and not as much Sue poking Sammy. I'm not sure there's enough in there for me to feel like it's pushing one way or the other. I still feel like Adelaide is the best candidate for today given her behavior throughout and the votes from yesterday. I don't think she suspected that William would not be with us today and that he would be a nice scapegoat when she declined to vote.

I'm going to leave Simon and myself out of the analysis below since I believe Simon's an Oak and I know I'm one. Yesterday it was 3-1 Adelaide in favor of Jack when Simon and Bruce both voted in quick succession. Sammy voted very quickly thereafter to make it 4-3 in favor of Jack. A while later, Sue switched over from Adelaide to Jack, and then Adelaide responded late without voting. Jack made an issue of pointing out that Adelaide hadn't voted. If there is only 1 scum left, it's most likely Adelaide. It's probably not Sue due to the hammer vote yesterday. It would've made more sense for her to sit back and hope the lynch didn't go through, albeit relying on Adelaide not to contribute. It's probably not Sammy, since his vote made it 4 and made it possible for the hammer to happen. If he wanted that, he would've voted for Adelaide instead of his teammate. If there are 2 scum left, here are the options: - Sammy/Adelaide - In this case, both primary lynch candidates yesterday were scum so it would conceivably not matter which one was lynched. Sammy votes with the town block to look less suspicious and because the lynch is more likely to go through. There's less explaining to do. Also this: Yesterday, she would've voted for Sammy if she'd had time to put a case together. Today, she finds Sammy's vote for Jack less scummy than Sue's even though Sue is the one who sealed the lynch on a scummo. - Sammy/Sue - This is a realistic possibility with bussing their partner. The question would be why they didn't shift the vote over to Adelaide. Perhaps Sammy wanted to but came on just too late and saw that the town block had decided on Jack and for reasons stated above, decided it would be safer just to vote with the town block. - Sue/Adelaide - This seems least likely to me due to the late vote switch and they way they're going at it today. If the vote yesterday was between two scum, and Sue was their partner, she could've easily left her vote on Adelaide. Adelaide's non vote would've left it at a 4-3 no-lynch, and they've started it up today. Adelaide is also ignoring Sammy completely as a candidate. So right now, my vote is with Adelaide. Vote: Adelaide Apple (TinyPiesRUs) Sorry... that bit about Adelaide ignoring Sammy completely was before I went back and reviewed and added the quote where Adelaide does address Sammy a bit.

I think Adelaide avoided voting yesterday out of fear. I think she was hoping the bandwagon on Jack would not reach completion and then once it did, she didn't want to add a late vote. By not voting, she doesn't have any specific thing to defend against and today she's completely avoiding the question of why she didn't vote.

Here's how I like to visualize voting patterns so you can see everyone. I have kept all the unknown players in red, but it's easy enough to imagine them a different color if you think they're not scum, just like you can imagine cleared living players as green. I think I managed to get every stumped/deceased tree. Day 1: Alastair Pear (Brickelodeon) - 15 (Stickfig, Tamamono, Scaevola, Lord Duvors, jamesn, Lego Spy, PirateDave84, Zepher, Calanon, Bob, Hinckley, adventurer1, jluck, TinyPiesRUs, Mencot) Bruce Spruce (Tamamono) - 8 (Scubacarrot, Fugazi, Penalty, Penalty, Penalty, Penalty, Penalty, fhomess) Bobby Beech (Lord Duvors) - 5 (Penalty, Penalty, Penalty, Penalty, Penalty) Catarina Dogwood (adventurer1) - 2 (jluck, Brickelodeon, Goliath) Hazel Hazelnut (Goliath) - 2 (brickelodeon, badboytje88, adventurer1, mostlytechnic) Chester Chestnut (Lego Spy) - 1 (TheLazyChicken) Agnes Cyprus (JackJonesPaw) - 1 (Dragonfire) Berty Birch (Dragonfire) - 1 (Scaevola, Tamamono, JackJonespaw) Adelaide Apple (TinyPiesRUs) - 0 (Bob) Larry Larch (TheLazyChicken) - 0 (Hinckley, Goliath) No Vote - 1 (Mencot) There are 4 remaining on and 4 remaining off the bandwagon, with three of us on the Bruce train. Barry is currently the only scum on the Alastair wagon, which is unusual. This was why I called out Sue and Adelaide earlier. As I said, it's entirely possible that both are scum or neither, but this is one way to narrow the field. Day 2: Catarina Dogwood (adventurer1) - 16 (Tamamono, jamesn, Hinckley, JackJonespaw, jluck, Scaevola, Lego Spy, Bob, Lord Duvors, Fugazi, Goliath, Dragonfire, TheLazyChicken, badboytje88, fhomess, mostlytechnic, Tamamono) Chester Chestnut (LegoSpy) - 3 (StickFig, Zepher, Calanon) Nash Ash (Zepher) - 1 (TinyPiesRUs) Maggie Magnolia (Calanon) - 1 (Scubacarrot) Barry Cherry (jluck) - 1 (adventurer1) Sammy Sycamore (Fugazi) - 0 (Hinckley) No Vote - 0 Here, I don't see anything to learn from the bandwagon grouping, but the other votes are interesting. There were 7 votes, including Simon's not on the bandwagon. None of those have shown to be anything but Oak yet. Adelaide and William are both in that group. The fact that Adelaide shows up here and in the subgroup on day 1 adds suspicion. Day 3: Larry Larch (TheLazyChicken) - 12 (Zepher, Hinckley, Tamamono, Bob, jamesn, Goliath, Lego Spy, Calanon, fhomess, badboytje88, TinyPiesRUs, jamesn, Dragonfire) Bobby Beech (Lord Duvors) - 2 (Scaevola, TinyPiesRUs, badboytje88, jluck) Barry Cherry (jluck) - 1 (mostlytechnic) Peter Cedar (badboytje88) - 1 (TheLazyChicken) Simon Persimmon (Hinckley) - 1 (Scubacarrot) Berty Birch (Dragonfire) - 1 (Fugazi) No Vote - 1 (Lord Duvors) Here, the votes are fairly split between the two groups. There's scum in both categories. Adelaide was the hammer vote on Larry but I really don't put that much stock into hammer votes given the vagaries of time zones and how hammer votes don't end the day. I look more at trends and changes in the voting pattern, so while I think that Day 4: Hazel Hazelnut (Goliath) - 10 (jamesn, Goliath, mostlytechnic, Hinckley, fugazi, Goliath, fhomess, badboytje88, Calanon, Zepher, Bob) Peter Cedar (Badboytje88) - (Dragonfire, Bob, TinyPiesRUs, Zepher, Dragonfire) Simon Persimmons (Hinckley) - 1 (Scubacarrot) Nash Ash (Zepher) - 0 (Hinckley, Hinckley) Chester Chestnut (Lego Spy) - 0 (Dragonfire, Goliath) Jack Pine (Mostlytechnic) - 0 (Hinckley, Goliath) Maggie Magnolia (Calanon) - 0 (fhomess) No Vote - 2 (Tamamono, Lego Spy) Day 5: I don't see any point in analyzing the unanimous Berty lynch. As for William, he didn't vote with a bandwagon at ALL on days 1-4. I called him on avoiding the bandwagon a day or two ago, I can't remember when exactly, but I wouldn't necessarily vote for him exclusively because of that and his response didn't arouse additional suspicion at the time.

I have made comments about voting at various times that have been lost or ignored in light of other discussions. Just today I mentioned day 1 voting and have also said that I think Sammy's behavior on Day 4 to go after Hazel is suspicious. There have been other comments on votes that haven't really led anywhere, but since you ask so nicely I will review again. Looking back at day 1, there are 5 people on Alastair's bandwagon whose alignment is unknown, 4 of whom are still alive. The living trees are Bruce, Simon, Sue, and Adelaide. The 5th tree is Barry, who I think most agree with me was scum. Even accounting for the likely possibility that Alastair was scum, it would be shocking to me if there was only 1 scum on his bandwagon. That just doesn't happen very much with a day 1 lynch. If we assume that Alastair was scum, then Adelaide's late vote looks a bit more like an attempt to distance oneself from lynched scum than Sue's (take Bruce and Simon out), but that's where you really have to take their other behavior into account. Sue could just as well have been doing that, too, with an early vote knowing it would be less suspicious. Day 4 is already getting plenty of attention and I've said a bit about it so I'll skip that for now. I'm extremely weary and need to rest my leaves, but will review the other days in detail after a rest.

So your analysis has us looking at the same group of trees in both cases and you neglect to express an opinion on them. So what do you conclude about them out of your analysis? I originally voted for Maggie because of the connection to Barry. You were instrumental in steering the bandwagon to Hazel, so if there's a reason to believe that Hazel is actually not scum and Peter was, then doesn't that mean that you are on the hook? I want to be the guy that comes in every episode and says the catchphrase! Hilarity will ensue! I didn't ask for either. I commented that they were the options to remove him from the game and moved on. You've shown me the quote in private. I'm really surprised you took it that way. I understand what you're saying, I'm just surprised to hear you say it as it was merely a way to get from one thought to the next. That's not at all what I said. We all make lists all the time in these games. They are anything BUT random. Those lists come from both town and scum with varying amounts of knowledge and speculation put into them. They're also drawn from voting patterns like what Sammy has done. They are a starting point for reviewing behavior and if you look back in this and other forests you'll see that I'm usually right. No, I said I thought there was probably one more beyond Chester. I brought Sue's name up again today. Sue has pinged me somewhat less than the others, that much is true, but having varying levels of suspicion is normal. He went and claimed a nonsense role to two players in private. Unsolicited. What would encourage such behavior?

I do look forward to that. Barry basically lost it in private with people, making crazy claims. There was no rational reason for him to do that that I can think of beyond what I said at the time. I have nightmares about that event in every game I play.

Seriously, Simon? If Jack was blocked on a night when there was a missing kill, which we know wasn't the vig kill, then it makes perfect sense to cast a vote for him. If you're lying or holding back information to hopefully catch scum then you're only going to catch people who don't have much information. By now, there seems to be a conspicuous lack of interest in lynching Jack. Whatever you're holding back the scum probably already know. There's nothing out of the ordinary for me in this. The posts I make in public contribute more than what most trees do. I have shared my suspicions with you and been fair and balanced in my reviews of everyone. Berty's behavior and handling of that role was scummy. Here you even acknowledge that. I don't think focusing so much on something that I know is not true for so long would be a very smart scum play. I didn't ask if the vig would target Chester at all! I made a case for why I thought he was the most likely scum among my suspicions. Any interpretation of fishing or of me suggesting a vig target is done on your part. If you didn't agree with my assessment, that's one thing, but it's not scummy for me to have different interpretations of the same events. I am an engineer and computer programmer in my day job. This is just the way I think about this stuff. Your interpretation of it as considering Berty still scummy is way off. A large portion of the fun for me in these ordeals is the logic problem that underlies things. Having been the victim of certain mind tricks in the past, any comment that Bruce ever makes about conversion pings me pretty hard. I liked Sammy's theories yesterday under the assumption that Berty was scum. That has proven false and it's time to update my theories. This is not wishy-washiness. This is incorporating new information into my thinking. Should I not do that and create new theories as information that can be relied upon is revealed? I guess I don't understand what it hurts to reveal the target of a blocker in such a situation and why waiting was prudent. Where the hell did I do that?

If you had read the rest of the discussion you'd see that I am open to the idea of Peter being the SK, however then we have a question of why the scum didn't kill yesterday. If we assume Peter was scum, then we can also consider the possibility that Hazel was the SK and that's why there was no 3rd kill last night. If Hazel wasn't the SK, we've still got an SK problem on our hands that someone ought to have some insight into. I can't imagine either the scum or the SK would've opted not to kill at this stage. As for Jack... Vote: Jack Pine (Mostlytechnic) Smoking gun and all that... a block on a night that was missing a kill seems suspicious. Can someone please explain, though, why it's taken so long to make this public?

You seem to be misunderstanding what's being said. We now know the SK/scum have not failed to kill on 3 nights. On night 1, the vig was blocked. Night 2, Jack was blocked and one of the scum/SK kills did not happen. On night 3, we have all 3 killers out. On night 4, the vig stayed home. Last night, the bomb went off and the vig succeeded. There are 4 explanations possible for last night: 1. Hazel was the SK, Bobby was the scum killer, so there was only the chance for 2 kills total 2. Bobby was the SK, the scum were blocked 3. Hazel and Bobby were both scum, the SK was blocked 4. One of the scum/sk targets were protected Jack seems like a prime candidate having been blocked on a night with just 2 kills barring an alternate explanation. If there was a conversion on night 2 that could explain the lack of a kill. From a risk standpoint of trusting someone the investigators cleared, the only people investigated at that point were you and Simon. Even if we consider the possibility that the conversion happens after investigation, then we add our investigators to that group, but they're both dead and confirmed stumps now. Do you have any reason to think that Simon was converted and poses a risk to the rest of us?

Thanks, I stand corrected. Regardless, the point about Sammy's behavior is valid.

The remaining living trees that voted for Alastair on day 1 are Bruce (2nd), Sue (10th), Simon (11th), and Adelaide (14th). Everyone else has been revealed as Oak or is Barry who is presumed to be Maple. The remaining living trees that voted for Peter on Day 4 are Sue and Adelaide, although Sue switched to Hazel at Simon's request late in the day to seal the lynch. In looking at the votes for Hazel on Day 4, now that we know both Hazel and Peter were maples, I have to wonder about Sammy's role in the voting. Sammy called out Berty earlier in the day for defending Peter, but was also instrumental in ensuring that the lynch went to Hazel rather than Peter. The goal seems to have been to bus Hazel to put Peter in the clear and set up Berty for a lynch yesterday. Had Peter not been killed by the bomb, then perhaps that connection doesn't get made.

I still find it odd if there was an SK that could kill regularly and we only have 1 night where it looks like both the SK and maples killed someone. We now have 3 nights in which that was the case, including last night.

If they're inspiring you to dream about multiple factions then I'd say you might want to leave the alarm clocks alone. The SK theory seems more reasonable to me now that we know that the vig stayed in one night. Maggie seems like one of the least interesting scum targets given how little she contributed. It does beg the question of nights 1 and 2 when there was just 2 kills each and we know that the vig was successful on both occasions.

I have been asking a lot of questions of certain people. In your case, if we consider Barry to be scum, which I do, then it's of interest who Barry was talking to and what they were doing with the information they exchanged with Barry. You were one of those people. Vote: Berty Birch (Dragonfire)

Honestly, the miller role claim has been reviewed and rehashed a decent amount and the short of it comes down to whether or not you believe that Berty didn't know how to play the role until she spoke with Simon late on Day 1. I've gone back and forth on it numerous times and have found that there wasn't a lot to push my thought process one way or the other on it. At the least, Berty has been pretty consistent in his response about the claim and how it happened. What hasn't really been discussed since the miller claim was Berty's Garden Variety Oaks comment earlier in the day. Which two do you think were scum? If you think we should act on the assumption that all are scum, then we should lynch Berty based on yesterday's interaction with Hazel, no?

We're all speaking in sign language so the maples don't understand what we're saying. Unless the block or stumps provide some evidence of scum-foolery, I think we're back to looking at some of the behavioral cues again. Berty's interaction with Hazel yesterday seems to suggest that if we think Hazel was scum, we probably ought to put Berty along side. I also found it odd that Sammy was quick to call out Hazel's self vote yesterday but wasn't all that quick to vote for her.

That's an odd thing for you to say. I have no idea what you mean, but ... hear hear!

Hazel, how is any of your behavior here helping us find Maples?