mostlytechnic

Well, sounds like you covered all the possible bases there. Maybe we have a vig, maybe not anymore. Maybe it's 3:2, maybe not. Oh, and you claim to be cleared? That's convenient... Why should we trust that? I know I said yesterday that I had a townread on you, but that doesn't mean I'm right or that I trust you. We cannot afford any mistakes today - assuming it's 3:2 (worst case) then the game is over if we lynch another townie. So... is there any investigation results that can be shared? Anyone that can back up Sir Eustace's claim of innocence? Basically, the hunt is almost certainly over today. Tomorrow at the absolute latest. So I say we share anything we've got. A wrong lynch equals a scum win. A right lynch means we either win (if there's only 1 left) or we survive to another day where it'd then be 2:1. Is the vig out there and can clarify that you've been blocked? If not, then the vig is dead. Is there an investigator alive that can give us some results from last night? It's been claimed that night 1 the Sergeant was cleared, night 2 Fitz was caught, and night 3 Sir Eustace was cleared, but we have no support for that last claim. Is there a blocker who can say who's been blocked so we can scum-hunt with that info? Is there a protector that could explain any of the missing kills? We need any info that is out there, now that we've lost the Sergeant and his position as town leader.

His claim to me was indeed after Sergeant said there's a liar. I can't agree that there's a SK out there. We haven't seen any evidence of that, and I can't see there being so many kill roles in a small game. For some reason I was assuming he wasn't investigated, and that was dumb of me. I was assuming he voluntarily said he was a neutral. You know what they say about assuming, donkey you me something, right? I've still been wavering on how to vote. I've even said earlier today to lynch liars, but I can't see that Fitz is a harm to town. His role isn't that ridiculous and does make sense (he's a survivor in typical mafia terminology) with no other abilities, which is normal for the role. The main risk is that IF the town gets weak enough, he could easily flip to voting with scum to try and win that way. Neither side NEEDS to remove him to win... so I can't see that the scum would kill him off at night now that he's revealed. They're probably considering him a blessing since we're having to waste a lynch to remove him. If the scum had to outnumber town plus neutrals, I would NOT vote for Fitz. Since they do not, I think now the wise plan is to Unvote: Glanred (Mencot) Vote: Fitzwilliam (Jackjonespaw) I'd rather be trying to lynch a scum than waste time like this, but the risk of him flipping to help the scum if our numbers get low is too much. We currently have 7 of us left. I'm assuming that's 4 town, 2 scum, and Fitz. If we take him out today and lose another townie overnight, we can't lose today even if there's a SK or the vig kills a townie by mistake. If we don't and lynch a townie by mistake AND lose 2 overnight to kills, it could be over today. So since we don't have a SOLID scum target, this is better. I still want to know who was blocked last night, if anyone, since the scum failed to kill any of us. That seems like the best evidence we could have so far of a scum's identity. Tomorrow we may need to mass-claim and throw ALL the info on the table since it should be the last day of the scum hunt. In fact, why not today? Assuming 2 scum left, we should be able to lynch one and vig kill one to win today. We've got 23 hours left... Sergeant, do you think there's enough info out there to pull it off? I know you said earlier no PRs had claimed to you, but perhaps now they have and you have a better feel for what the town has left?

Mostly a gut thing. Maybe I should have ranked him as a 6 instead of 7 with Glanred, but whatever. He's the second scummiest to me. Agreed - that's the drawback to knowing info is coming. People are sheep and there's no shepherd amongst us. As for Fitzwilliam... he and I had a few PM conversations day 1 that went nowhere, and then today he confessed his 3rd party role to me before it was revealed publicly. He was sure that he was going to be outed as the "liar" and so he told me the same explanation that he's given here - that he's neutral and has no kill. He basically was telling me so that someone would know his claim before anything was said publicly, in case the Sergeant or anyone else misconstrued his role. I believe the no kill part, since we haven't seen any extra deaths here. And as far as I know, there's not an investigation showing that he's not loyal; he admitted it himself. Is that correct? If so, then I can't see that he's an assassin (why would a non-investigated assassin claim 3rd party in private to two different people?), and therefore I'm not voting for him. We win by eliminating the assassins. Period. There is no need for us to kill neutral parties, and as he said, it's a distraction and essentially a wasted lynch. I'd much rather lynch an assassin than someone we don't need to kill.

My apologies, Sir Eustace. The three was in reference to Rath as well - he's third on my list. I'd wavered as I was writing whether to list 2 or 3 on my scum list. And so that's the difference. On a scale of 1 to 10 in suspicion, I'd put Glanred and Berdam at 7, Rath at 5 (pretty neutral, but we'll see how things progress), and the rest of us the townie side. Good to see someone actually reading and paying attention! As for Glanred's comment... he IS the only one alive who didn't vote both days, other than the Sergeant. Posting, he was fairly vocal day 1 but it was all (except maybe 1 post) day 1 fluff. So quantity, but substance. Day 2, fairly quiet. I haven't seen anyone that's a better target in 2 days, so my vote stays until there's reason to change.

Yep, liars get lynched. As for Eustace wanting my opinion on suspects... well, who's left? Sergeant Radford (def) - pretty sure he's town. Can't see his claim being a lie and there hasn't been any refuting of it yet. Fitzwilliam (JackJonespaw) - one of the busiest posters, has been talking in PM with me a little and I don't have any reason to think he's an assassin Sir Eustace Almoner (Lady K) - pretty sure you're town. Been pretty on point and sure seem to be legitimately hunting the assassins Wilfred Orann (mostlytechnic) - I know I'm loyal to the king Rath Skarbin (Umbra-Manis) - Been right in the middle of the pack posting-wise. Hard to read since Rath's new to town. Berdam Blost (jluck) - middle of the road poster, did actually vote both days. Glanred (Mencot) - hasn't voted at all, which in this town is actually hiding. It's hard to have solid suspects, and there's so little voting history to look at, but I'm saying probably those last 2 names - Berdam, Glanred - are scum. So why not get things started again... Vote: Glanred (Mencot) since he's the scummiest of the three. Yesterday I voted for him and it's only gotten a bit stronger feeling since.

But I've heard stories from the recent past where announcing a traitor too quickly in the day kills other discussion... so while I'm glad that we should have an easy choice today, I don't think other discussion has been wasted. And no, discussing what we're facing is not a waste of time. We can discuss mechanics AND suspects both!

Didn't we discuss last time that multiple killers targeting each other all succeed? I thought that's the standard. So if Alanna was the scum killer but got vig killed, her kill should have gone thru too. Another crazy idea that went through my head while travelling today was what if the scum had no kill, but they had a recruit ability. That would let them reduce the town numbers and increase their own, so they could win that way. But then I realized it'd HAVE to be heavily restricted or counterbalanced, since each recuit by them would swing the balance of numbers by 2 (eliminate a townie and add a scum). It'd also be nasty to have trusted townie flip like that - sure it happens with the occasional 1 shot recruit ability or cults, but having the scum do that multiple times would be almost impossible to fight. So I highly doubt that crazy idea. Personally, I think we have a vig that stayed home night 1, no SK, and the scum were prevented somehow last night. That's the simplest and most logical explanation that I see. So... if there's a blocker or protector who had a successful action last night and can possibly let us know (reasonably safely - I'm not fishing or asking you to suicide to tell us that you protected someone) that'd be great. ESPECIALLY a blocker, since that should give us a scum's identity! Actually, I guess there's no reason for a protector to say anything publicly. Tell a town block, sure, but the only thing it would do for the town as a whole is help confirm my theory, and that's not worth risking the protector.

And I know I'm not an assassin, so it's either 1 non-voting and Berdam, or 2 non-voting. As mentioned, the non-voting are actually the majority here so why are you (Sir Eustace) so focused on the voters?

Risky for the vig to hit those low posting types. They tend to either be hiding scum or hiding PRs. Glad this time it was a scummo!

Why are people assuming we HAVE an SK in a game this small? There's only been 1 night kill each night, assuming that day kill was a vengeful-type scenario. So either we've had 2 non-kills each night (due to vig/sk staying home, or scum being prevented) or there's just a vig and a scum kill. In that latter case, night 1 the vig stayed home (wisely) and night 2 the scum failed. That seems more likely to me. Would BOTH vig and SK have skipped night 1? And one of them skipped night 2 (or the scum failed BOTH nights, but that sure seems unlikely)

Woo, I guess. 1 of each is good. Not great, but we can live with it. Now, only 1 night kill again.... it must be a vig/SK since the scum obviously wouldn't kill off their own. So the scum kill must have been prevented. So blocker/protector, one of you did good last night so hopefully you're talking behind the scenes so we can get a second assassin today!

I'm keeping my vote on you because you're about to have a second day of no vote, and not a whole lot of contribution either today. The scum can hide SO easy when a bunch of people are so quiet. This vote could easily go on others as well, since there's still I think 5 people not voting.

So we currently have my one vote for Glanred, and two votes for Felix. Out of 9 people. Come on and vote people!

I stopped questioning you because you responded and there was no need to beat a dead horse. I haven't grilled others as much because they haven't said enough to grill them on yet. I gave my reason for voting Banning yesterday when I did it. I kept it there because there was no better choice to vote for. I voted at all beacause that's what townies do. It's our weapon against the scum. And it's going on record. Yep, I voted for a loyal townie. I didn't know that at the time or I wouldn't have done it, obviously. But day 1 votes are almost always lynches of town, just based on the odds. It's more important because it starts a voting record - the reason I was pushing people to vote and complaining about those who didn't. You're probably right that some scum voted early and some not at all, since they want to hide in the crowds. I'm not going so far as to make scum accusations based on a single vote though. You may be right that Blost or Fitz are scum, I don't know. I only know my own allegiance at this point. You should check your facts though - Banning didn't vote for me, he voted for Fitzwilliam.

For the record, I'm inclined to believe you. You could be scum making a gamble, but you'd be betting the entire game pretty much on this (unnecessary) play. You'd be betting that the investigator is among the 3 dead. Somewhere around 1:3 odds, so not great. And if you were lying, you'd be dead (although likely outing the investigator in the process...) So I'll buy it.

But an SK with so few? That'd make for a SUPER fast game. I'd be surprised if there is a 3rd party in something this small. Except for the fact that 3 scum seems too many and 2 seems too few. Maybe there's some sort of non-killing independent role? Cult? Too few people. Survivor/lyncher? Maybe, but why? Jester? They'd have been obvious by now. So is there anything else that could effectively be like half a scum to balance things? Like there's 2 scum plus something else? A SK is too much for that, since it's adding a full kill. Unless it's a partial-SK, meaning they only have 1 or 2 kills or something like that. And yes, I'm just speculating about mechanics since there's not a ton else going on. We've harassed Sir Eustace there today and not a whole lot of other conversation, so I'm just talking to take my mind off of wanting a drink...

I'm with Blost here - there's so few of us that we can't take days and days to build a town block carefully and be as cautious as normal in revealing info. If there's 3 assassins, today could very possibly be the last day (if we choose badly and lynch a townie, scum kill a second, and lose two more to vig/vengeful/bomb/SK/whatever). Yes, odds are that we'll have a day 3 (even losing 3 townies again wouldn't end the game since I don't think there's be 4 assassins, and if it's 3:3 then it's not over yet) Minutia about numbers aside, it's critical that we know everything we can to find an assassin today. So anyone who has night results should be more aggressive than usual in revealing them. It's day 2 out of what'll likely be a 3 or 4 day game, so don't look at it as day 2. Look at today as one of the last days in the hunt. And since they're the ones with the most info, how about I try this again - Hey assassins! I'm not real clear on why you want our king dead. Some sorta dispute over some forest or something? Heck, maybe you need a mediator to work things out instead of killing him. Talk to me, and I'll see what I can do. I'd rather not see anyone else die... these are my friends here! My gut says 3, but it's a guess obviously. 2 assassins would be a 5:1 ratio, and 3 would be 3:1. So 2 is actually more likely, but that seems SO small that I'm leaning 3. Plus I'd rather err on the side of assuming there's more enemies than there really are than the reverse.

Not voting is hiding your voting record, since now we don't have any vote from you on day 1 to analyze later. Oh, I'm not ignoring the rest. They'll all get grilled. You're here and talking, so you get interrogated first I'm not giving much weight to the "deciding vote" thing since anyone could be the decider, even someone who had already voted, since they could unvote and change the outcome at the last minute. Day 1 never has a "good" lynch target. It's about starting a vote record and looking back at it later. So not voting is now your record, which looks back IMHO. Really? One was a day kill after the lynch, so most likely a vengeful-type scenario. The night kill is almost certainly the scum, since I would expect the vig to have stayed home last night with so few people around. There's a tiny chance that the vig killed Klaer hoping he was a quiet assassin and the scum were prevented from their kill somehow, but odds are against that scenario I'd think. Yes, killing them all seems cruel. However, I've seen events before where the first to reach that number of votes is the lynch, so that someone gets lynched every day. That's why I was seeking clarification. I didn't want to just assume that tie=no lynch.

Thank you for that clarification. It's what most people seem to be expecting, but not what I was. So that impacts how I think about actions from yesterday...

I have much to say but only a moment before church begins. I shall certainly be praying for the king today. One quick question TO the king.... What doth occur if there be a tie vote? The rules don't specify. Be there two lynches? No lynches? First to get to that number of votes dies?

Don't be thanking me - I was in no way defending you. I just can't stand crap logic being used!

I'm actually sorta liking that snowplow...

To play devil's advocate here, when has there EVER been a day 1 vote that wasn't flimsy? Well, that explanation is just full of holes. You say you were trying to keep people alive by not voting, but as you said, the rule in this town is the person with most votes is lynched. A majority is not needed, so once ANY vote is placed, someone's getting dead. So not voting in NO WAY could keep anyone alive. Voting just puts you on record so we can examine the history later, once we have some alignments known. So... you trying to hide your voting record by not placing a vote?

1. Sadly, more than a fourth, since some of the people here are cowardly assassins. I'd assume it's more like a third of the town gone! something along the lines of 3 assassins and 9 of us town to begin. 2. Vengefuls don't always claim, hoping either for scum to be the final vote and die, or because it's sorta a crappy claim to make. "Hey, you can't lynch me or you die!" comes across poorly. 3. I would HOPE the vig stayed home last night! There wasn't anything strongly scummy enough for the vig to kill over, and with so few people in this town, we don't have bodies to spare. I have often advocated for no-lynch day 1 before, but it does seem odd that SO MANY didn't vote at all! Those of you who didn't vote definitely need to explain yourselves. In fact, I'm going to start things off and Vote: Glanred (Mencot) because you were the most talkative person who didn't vote yesterday. Time to start talking today!

Well that's a sucky start. Perhaps we need to lay off the drink and solve this! And obviously, an interesting twist in this game of life - a day kill?!? Now.... at first I thought the day kill must be the assassins, and the night kill the vig. But it says that poor Klaer found a traitor. But then rule 11 says there's no mechanics or hints in the pictures, so maybe that doesn't mean anything. Thinking further, I'd be shocked to see SO many deaths every day/night in such a small town. Perhaps... could the Corporal have been a Vengeful? There's a specific type listed there as a "super saint" who kills the person who hammered their lynch. Mairn was the last vote on Banning, so it's possible this is what we've seen here. (it also fits what we saw in the pictures at the end of day 1, but again, see rule 11...) If that's the case, then either we have no vig (likely actually, in such a small society I'd think), or a vig smart enough to stay home last night. (or of course, all the lower-odds explanations like vig or scum was blocked or the target protected or what have you...) Bah. Too much for this early in the morning. Does it really matter? We know there's still assassins out there and so who killed who last night isn't that helpful right now.