Excalibur TNG: Mafia School Day Two

[Lady K]

I believe Melinda was voted out because she would change votes if convinced. There for the scum had to get rid of her before one of them was voted out. Emily made some good reasons in favor of Adam being town and pointing out the quick bandwagon against him therefore she was taken out. What I can't figure out is why Issac was taken out except for maybe the same reason as Melinda.

I have to say though that going back through the posts I noticed that Willie has been quick to through suspicions that have turned into bandwagons. Care to explain Willie?

[jluck]

I feel it wasn't that Melinda was over suspicious, but rather that she was one of the few who stood out on the first day.

Melinda: killed by mob, likely just a first day misstep by town, as she was one of the few suspects.

Emily: killed by scum (I think) likely because she had a lot of influence and had started piecing together facts, due to bandwagon votes on Adam (me).

Isaac: killed by scum or possibly a townie special role (detective/vigilante). It seems likely he was killed by town as he never seemed suspicious.

We suspect 2-3 scum

Greg and Emma seem to be popular choices due to Emily suspecting them and Greg's bandwagon vote

These are my facts so far, am I missing any?

Final votes are due tomorrow so I'm trying to piece it all quickly.

[-Horizon-]

I believe Melinda was voted out because she would change votes if convinced. There for the scum had to get rid of her before one of them was voted out. Emily made some good reasons in favor of Adam being town and pointing out the quick bandwagon against him therefore she was taken out. What I can't figure out is why Issac was taken out except for maybe the same reason as Melinda.

I have to say though that going back through the posts I noticed that Willie has been quick to through suspicions that have turned into bandwagons. Care to explain Willie?

I agree about Melinda, and Willie what do you have to say?

[Comrade Commander]

<SNIP>

Isaac: killed by scum or possibly a townie special role (detective/vigilante). It seems likely he was killed by town as he never seemed suspicious.

<SNIP>

Why would a town member kill someone unless they were sure? Can a detective even kill?

(Does someone have a data pad/wiki with all the information for this forum's game on it. I think I need to brush up a little more on it.)

If there are two scum, wouldn't it make sense there were two deaths?

[jluck]

Why would a town member kill someone unless they were sure? Can a detective even kill?

(Does someone have a data pad/wiki with all the information for this forum's game on it. I think I need to brush up a little more on it.)

If there are two scum, wouldn't it make sense there were two deaths?

I don't even know if there is a town role with a night duty, I'm just trying to make sense of the fact that Isaac was killed for no reason. If two scum indicate two deaths, that'd be confirmation that there are only 2.

[Lego Spy]

I just want to mention that Emily may have been a town vigilante and killed Isaac herself, believing he was scum. Look at this post: (the same one as her "Reads List")

You are one of the scummiest people in this game. First, you bandwagon Adam like a good little scum. Then you say you want to vote me. Then you agree with me and unvote. This is called flip flopping. Either you're a total newbtown, or you're a scum trying to appease town and get a townie lynched.

Now look at the last post on page two of the confirmation thread. (I'm not going to quote it since it was, technically, against the rules to post it in the first place.)

All I'm saying is that I wouldn't take everything she says as correct, as she seemed to be accusing innocent people.

[vampyre78]

I just want to mention that Emily may have been a town vigilante and killed Isaac herself, believing he was scum. Look at this post: (the same one as her "Reads List")

[*snip*]

This is actually the best new information that's come to light today, and does make sense. I've been trying to figure out how we lost two last night and Emily being a vigilante gives the simplest explanation.

If that's the case, we now know that her target was wrong.

[getdamonkey]

Have to look at all views since it's as likely to be the carburetor as the muffler.

Okay, so here's a look at Emma from my view.

Prior to the bandwagon on Adam, Emma doesn't seem to lean either way. Assuming Adam is town, Emma casts a very late vote (#6 of 7). Outside of the context of the bandwagon, this doesn't mean much. In the context of the bandwagon, it's the vote that would potentially seal Adam's lynching. Emma even goes as far as to agreeing that lots of votes are being cast quickly (bandwagon) before adding her vote to the pile.

I really have to stop spending so much time with my head in the books! That did come about rather quickly Jeff, I agree.

But, unfortunately, given that we all have so little to go on...I'm sorry Adam

Vote Adam (jluckhaupt)

What happens next isn't damning but it's interesting. Emma makes a request for Emily's opinion. This is a costless action for Emma (since she gives no info) but is bad for emily since she's being asked to divulge information at a tense point in the game.

Actually, since this has all come up, I would be interested to hear the thoughts of our future Minister of Defence. Emily, you've been keen to hunt out these foul purists, what are your thoughts on Adam?

It strikes me as weird that there was no change in a vote that seemed to be cast on a whim earlier here. Doing this keeps Adam in a potential position of being lynched.

It appears I need to stop studying and sleeping! Blink for a second and the accusations have gone wild.

Fred, without a lot of evidence to go on, I admit that I have probably gone a little too quiet watching the current debates going on, and not making enough observations myself.

My vote for Adam stands based on what little we have to go on. I didn't mean to call out Emily, but I was very curious to see her thoughts given the accusations involving her earlier, she made some very solid arguments against others very early.

I think the Admiral's death has shaken us all more than we'd like to believe, it's been a chaotic day with very little information to work with.

it seems like there is some subtle efforts to push the game in a certain direction here.

[Lady K]

Two deaths may mean two scum, but we can't rule out three. Three seems right to me regardless of the number of night deaths due to that many needed to properly sway votes in the wrong direction.

[getdamonkey]

I just want to mention that Emily may have been a town vigilante and killed Isaac herself, believing he was scum. Look at this post: (the same one as her "Reads List")

Now look at the last post on page two of the confirmation thread. (I'm not going to quote it since it was, technically, against the rules to post it in the first place.)

All I'm saying is that I wouldn't take everything she says as correct, as she seemed to be accusing innocent people.

This is actually the best new information that's come to light today, and does make sense. I've been trying to figure out how we lost two last night and Emily being a vigilante gives the simplest explanation.

If that's the case, we now know that her target was wrong.

If she's was wrong though. Scum actually had incentive to keep her in the game.

Two deaths may mean two scum, but we can't rule out three. Three seems right to me regardless of the number of night deaths due to that many needed to properly sway votes in the wrong direction.

agreed, better safe than sorry.

[Lady K]

So I've noticed, and correct me if I'm wrong, but there are currently two votes for Greg and two votes for Emma and no one has un voted anyone even with all this discussion going on.

[Lego Spy]

If she's was wrong though. Scum actually had incentive to keep her in the game.

Hmm... That's true...

Gosh, I really don't know. It's almost time for me to go to bed, and I haven't voted for anyone.

The only people to me that I'd really consider at the moment would be Emma or, as adventurer1 mentions here, Willie.

I have to say though that going back through the posts I noticed that Willie has been quick to through suspicions that have turned into bandwagons. Care to explain Willie?

If no one posts in about three minutes, I'm just going to vote for Emma for time's sake.

Anyone?

[getdamonkey]

you've got about 12H yet

[Lego Spy]

Alright, I'll wait until morning and see what happens. (I'm pretty sure I'll be able to make a vote in time... )

(I meant morning in real life by the way. )

[Tohst]

I believe Melinda was voted out because she would change votes if convinced. There for the scum had to get rid of her before one of them was voted out. Emily made some good reasons in favor of Adam being town and pointing out the quick bandwagon against him therefore she was taken out. What I can't figure out is why Issac was taken out except for maybe the same reason as Melinda.

I have to say though that going back through the posts I noticed that Willie has been quick to through suspicions that have turned into bandwagons. Care to explain Willie?

I have? That's interesting. Because I didn't join the Adam bandwagon at all. I put together some posts that showed Melinda had flip flopped pretty hard and started that bandwagon. I was incorrect but the reasoning was sound.

[Bob]

Vote Count:

Greg Kennedy / Lego Spy: 2 (getdamonkey, Tohst)

Emma Lane / vampyre78: 2 (Comrade Commander, lego3364)

As a reminder, about nine or so hours remain in this day.

[getdamonkey]

[snip]

About 24 hours left in this day. As a reminder, all players must vote.

[snip]

As a reminder, about nine or so hours remain in this day.

Really?

I believe Melinda was voted out because she would change votes if convinced. There for the scum had to get rid of her before one of them was voted out. Emily made some good reasons in favor of Adam being town and pointing out the quick bandwagon against him therefore she was taken out. What I can't figure out is why Issac was taken out except for maybe the same reason as Melinda.

I have to say though that going back through the posts I noticed that Willie has been quick to through suspicions that have turned into bandwagons. Care to explain Willie?

I think Emma and Greg are the most likely contenders for being scum ATM. we should be careful not to split votes since, assuming that there are three scum, they control enough votes for a three way stalemate.

relatively certain either Emma or Greg (and possibly both) is scum at this point. We should probably concentrate our efforts there.

[Bob]

Really?

Oh, sorry. Don't look at me, I'm a terrible host. Regardless, the day ends at 10:34 AM EST tomorrow. Right now that's about ten hours.

[vampyre78]

I'm not sure that i've done anything to warrant so much suspicion on myself, other than trying to find patterns to the day one voting today.

By the time I placed my vote for Adam, I was actually still very suspicious (turned out groundless) of Emily and couldn't see her reasons for voting for Greg. I've said before it didn't seem like there was much reason for anyone to vote for Melinda other than perhaps she was too vocal with her suspicions. Emily managed to convince most of us that Adam was town, except for Timothy, Jordan and myself. As Melinda had already been called out for changing votes, I was even less inclined to change my vote after that point.

There really isn't anything solid that can be drawn from day one. While there are some suspicious patterns around the voting, there are too many variables (Isaac's motivations for one) to call. We ended the day with three people who were reasonably seriously accused of being scum, and 2 out of those 3 are innocent and dead.

Theoretical question -- What if the sudden bandwagon on Melinda was only formed to save Adam? Given that scum can communicate with each other, it would be a sensible strategy to try if things weren't going their way.

The more I try to look into reasons and suspicions, the more confused i'm getting!

Oops, slight correction. There were four people accused of being scum, Fred had named myself as well. Of those, Adam and I remain.

Jeff and Fred, although you have both suspected me today, based purely off your voting alone, neither of you are colluding with anyone. Unless your votes were part of an elaborate scum cover, but that wouldn't account for the bloodbath we had last night. I'm more inclined to believe both your opinions.

[Comrade Commander]

Emma, your theory about the bandwagon forming to save Adam is interesting. I am sceptical because I don't think that many scum would have jumped on that early/fast if they knew he was scum, but you are right that it certainly adds a new twist to the plot.

However, the reason I am voting for you today is more because of the way you post. We have discussed in detail throughout this day what makes you appear guilty, and from my perspective, you seem to have more evidence against you.

Even in the conversation above you come across cold and calculating. Trying to subtly push Adam into the conversation.

I might be starting to get horseblinders on with the reading & re-reading I am doing to make some analysis, and I will admit a lot of the evidence on both sides is sketchy, but we have to go with what we are given and that is just my gut.

[jluck]

Vote: Greg Kennedy (Lego Spy)

Explanation in post #42 of this thread.

I'm doing this early so that everyone can give it ample thought. I believe that this is the best choice given the current evidence. If you believe I am wrong, please provide your alternative.

Now before we start a bandwagon against me, I at least want to say that there was absolutely no private discussions between me and Isaac. I agree, that its extremely weird how closely posted they are, but I'd swear it on my medical degree that there were no communications between us.

And I'm still not sure why you're voting for me, as I was running out of time, and it was the first day, so I just randomly chose Melinda. Who Isaac voted for was completely his own decision.

ok, I wanna get my vote in before everyone else floods in.

Vote: Greg Kennedy (Lego Spy)

Why? Well because a few things. While I don't suspect Greg and Isaac were communicating, I do think Greg was quick to bandwagon, this is an easy way for scum to hide because their vote won't stand out. Also, he claims he chose Melinda randomly. That just doesn't add up for me. He had worked through several leads only to randomly vote for someone? Therefore, I am voting for him.

[getdamonkey]

I'm not sure that i've done anything to warrant so much suspicion on myself, other than trying to find patterns to the day one voting today.

By the time I placed my vote for Adam, I was actually still very suspicious (turned out groundless) of Emily and couldn't see her reasons for voting for Greg. I've said before it didn't seem like there was much reason for anyone to vote for Melinda other than perhaps she was too vocal with her suspicions. Emily managed to convince most of us that Adam was town, except for Timothy, Jordan and myself. As Melinda had already been called out for changing votes, I was even less inclined to change my vote after that point.

There really isn't anything solid that can be drawn from day one. While there are some suspicious patterns around the voting, there are too many variables (Isaac's motivations for one) to call. We ended the day with three people who were reasonably seriously accused of being scum, and 2 out of those 3 are innocent and dead.

Theoretical question -- What if the sudden bandwagon on Melinda was only formed to save Adam? Given that scum can communicate with each other, it would be a sensible strategy to try if things weren't going their way.

The more I try to look into reasons and suspicions, the more confused i'm getting!

Oops, slight correction. There were four people accused of being scum, Fred had named myself as well. Of those, Adam and I remain.

Jeff and Fred, although you have both suspected me today, based purely off your voting alone, neither of you are colluding with anyone. Unless your votes were part of an elaborate scum cover, but that wouldn't account for the bloodbath we had last night. I'm more inclined to believe both your opinions.

So first off, if there was solid evidence against anyone, we'd be done here. There's not solid evidence, so we're forced to go with our best guess.

Second, If we're assuming three (which we should for voting purposes), we won't finish this today. Because of this all suspicions are important and should be voiced with accompanying evidence. BUT, we should concentrate on a small number of people (in this case 2). Keeping votes clustered will give us more valuable data since it forces scum to work harder to defend their own.

[-Horizon-]

ok, I wanna get my vote in before everyone else floods in.

Vote: Greg Kennedy (Lego Spy)

Why? Well because a few things. While I don't suspect Greg and Isaac were communicating, I do think Greg was quick to bandwagon, this is an easy way for scum to hide because their vote won't stand out. Also, he claims he chose Melinda randomly. That just doesn't add up for me. He had worked through several leads only to randomly vote for someone? Therefore, I am voting for him.

Greg wasn't the only person to bandwagon against Adam. Six other players voted against Adam at one point. He was the fourth person to vote for Adam. You saying cause he joined a bandwagon he's scum, That isn't true. Emily voted for Adam first and she was Loyalist, Isaac was the fifth person to vote for Adam, and the third person for Melinda he was a loyalist. I just don't see how you can claim Greg scum multiple people did the exact same thing and you aren't claiming they're scum.

I'm running out of time, so I'm just going to make a vote:

Vote: Melinda Fox (Xenophobic Monoxide)

He never said randomly, He said "I'm running out of time, so I'm just going to make a vote."

He could be basing his vote off all the facts you discussed, but didn't have time to type every stinking fact up.

[Lady K]

While Adam makes some sound reasons to vote for Greg, I must say Willie you have not cleared yourself at all. I never said you joined the bandwagons, I said you started them.

[-Horizon-]

Unvote: Emma Lane (vampyre78)

Vote: Adam Powers (jluckhaupt) (Reason: post #123)