Excalibur TNG: Mafia School Day Two

[jluck]

On day 1 page 8, Emily suspected a scum bandwagon since votes came in so fast.

Here was her post:

[snip]

Unvote: Adam Powers (jluckhaupt)

Everyone get your votes off him! This guy is Town. Town as anything. No scum player gets five in-sync votes on them in a row. UNVOTE. THIS IS A TOWN WAGON.

Besides, I am almost 100% sure that there is at least one scum in the three players I have quoted. Agh, I hate bandwagons.

The 3 people she quoted can be found here, http://www.eurobricks.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=95627&st=175#entry1893432%20%20Link

And were Greg, Emma, and Isaac (dead-town). If Emily was truly onto something, there are 2 options, but that is only if you accept Emily was correct.

[Lady K]

Ok. That's something to go on.

[Comrade Commander]

This is what I am thinking...

I am leaning Emma at this time.

1.) She falls under the catagory of the people grouping together

2.) She has been active enough, deflected blame to others, yet has remained quiet enough to slip by (even the quote linked in Adam's post above seems like she is covering all her bases)

3.) She falls in the list of those Dragonfire called out, and thus potential revenge killing.

So, since I am not sure if I will be able to make it on again before the deadline due to studying (RL: work/sleep)

VOTE: EMMA (vampyre78)

I will try to make it back on though to continue discussion

[getdamonkey]

This is what I am thinking...

I am leaning Emma at this time.

1.) She falls under the catagory of the people grouping together

2.) She has been active enough, deflected blame to others, yet has remained quiet enough to slip by (even the quote linked in Adam's post above seems like she is covering all her bases)

3.) She falls in the list of those Dragonfire called out, and thus potential revenge killing.

So, since I am not sure if I will be able to make it on again before the deadline due to studying (RL: work/sleep)

VOTE: EMMA (vampyre78)

I will try to make it back on though to continue discussion

Emma is also pretty high up on my list; but I think the evidence against Greg is more concrete.

I think 1 and 2 can be dismissed as efforts at preservation but I would add that she was one of the few remaining votes against Adam yesterday despite coming in on the tail end of the bandwagon. Adam was almost lynched because of these remaining votes.

[-Horizon-]

This is what I am thinking...

I am leaning Emma at this time.

1.) She falls under the catagory of the people grouping together

2.) She has been active enough, deflected blame to others, yet has remained quiet enough to slip by (even the quote linked in Adam's post above seems like she is covering all her bases)

3.) She falls in the list of those Dragonfire called out, and thus potential revenge killing.

Those are some good solid facts, and all of them are true. I'll have to think about Emma

[Bob]

Vote Count:

Greg Kennedy / Lego Spy: 2 (getdamonkey, Tohst)

Emma Lane / vampyre78: 1 (Comrade Commander)

About 24 hours left in this day. As a reminder, all players must vote.

[jluck]

Are people scared of talking? Seems like no one wants to make a move for fear of being called scum. See above for my current thoughts, we gotta start getting the right people soon!

[Calanon]

Are people scared of talking? Seems like no one wants to make a move for fear of being called scum. See above for my current thoughts, we gotta start getting the right people soon!

I simply do not have anything to add right now, I don't know who to vote for either, although I am leaning towards Emma.

[Lady K]

Ok, interresting turn of events. Now the group is after Emma. I agree with Adam in we need to talk more, share reasons why we are suspicious of a certain individual. First off how many scum do you think there are?

[-Horizon-]

Ok, interresting turn of events. Now the group is after Emma. I agree with Adam in we need to talk more, share reasons why we are suspicious of a certain individual. First off how many scum do you think there are?

I'd say probably about 3-4,

Ok Vote: Emma Lane (vampire78) Reason post #78, 80

[Tohst]

I wonder if we could do a statistical analysis on who wins if nobody talks and randomly picks someone to vote for.

12 people were in the game to start off with.

We have 9 left. Let's hope there are only 3 Purists. If we lose 3 loyal townies tonight like we did last night, that leaves 3 scum and 3 town. Already a bad situation.

There just seems to be a lot of people not talking. And that bodes ill for us.

[Calanon]

Ok, interresting turn of events. Now the group is after Emma. I agree with Adam in we need to talk more, share reasons why we are suspicious of a certain individual. First off how many scum do you think there are?

I'd say probably about 3-4,

Ok Vote: Emma Lane (vampire78) Reason post #78, 80

I wonder if we could do a statistical analysis on who wins if nobody talks and randomly picks someone to vote for.

12 people were in the game to start off with.

We have 9 left. Let's hope there are only 3 Purists. If we lose 3 loyal townies tonight like we did last night, that leaves 3 scum and 3 town. Already a bad situation.

There just seems to be a lot of people not talking. And that bodes ill for us.

Personally, I think there are 2 Purists as we do not have a third party present as far as we know and there were two people killed in the night. Unless there is a Detective amongst us Loyalists who killed in the night instead of, well, detecting?

[getdamonkey]

Personally, I think there are 2 Purists as we do not have a third party present as far as we know and there were two people killed in the night. Unless there is a Detective amongst us Loyalists who killed in the night instead of, well, detecting?

That seems low. We should assume at least three. We shouldn't be lax about rooting out the purists.

[Calanon]

That seems low. We should assume at least three. We shouldn't be lax about rooting out the purists.

It may seem low, but we didn't start off with massive numbers of people. If there are three purists there must be another role that can kill.

[Lady K]

I'd say probably about 3-4,

Ok Vote: Emma Lane (vampire78) Reason post #78, 80

Post 78 and 80 are the same post. Jordon's reasons.

That seems low. We should assume at least three. We shouldn't be lax about rooting out the purists.

I agree it seems to make sense of three.

I see a bandwagon forming here!

[jluck]

It may seem low, but we didn't start off with massive numbers of people. If there are three purists there must be another role that can kill.

So there may be 3 purists or 2 and 1 townie who can kill. Either way we are in major danger of making a poor choice as the ratio is likely 2:1 or 3.5:1 townie to purest. We gotta really watch these posts carefully.

[Lady K]

With only a few hours to go before vote, I would really like to hear what Greg and Emma have to say. Emma please remember I voted for you last time because I questioned your loyalties due to lack of active informative posts.

[-Horizon-]

With only a few hours to go before vote, I would really like to hear what Greg and Emma have to say. Emma please remember I voted for you last time because I questioned your loyalties due to lack of active informative posts.

Has Greg actually done anything? and if he did what?

[getdamonkey]

Has Greg actually done anything? and if he did what?

I'll expand this to bring in Information from yesterday rather than referencing it.

This starts on Day 1 during Adam's bandwagon, There were 3 quick succession votes for Adam.

I'm sorry Adam, but I don't see any other choice.

Vote: Adam Powers (jluckhaupt)

Neither do I, sorry.

Vote: Adam Powers (jluckhaupt)

I really have to stop spending so much time with my head in the books! That did come about rather quickly Jeff, I agree.

But, unfortunately, given that we all have so little to go on...I'm sorry Adam

Vote Adam (jluckhaupt)

These three votes are #'s 4-6 enough to push Adam to 50% of the room.

Emily noticed this.

[snip]

Everyone get your votes off him! This guy is Town. Town as anything. No scum player gets five in-sync votes on them in a row. UNVOTE. THIS IS A TOWN WAGON.

Besides, I am almost 100% sure that there is at least one scum in the three players I have quoted. Agh, I hate bandwagons.

Two of the three players make Emily's scum list.

My Reads list:

Town

Adam, Jordan and Willie

Null

Tim, Jeff, Warren, Fred

Scum

Isaac, Greg, Melinda

Emma is nullscum so she doesn't fit into any category really.

[snip]

Aaaaannnnnnddd then we lynched Melinda. Two of her 4 votes come at the same cadence as the Adam bandwagon.

I'm running out of time, so I'm just going to make a vote:

Vote: Melinda Fox (Xenophobic Monoxide)

I will probably mess up but this does make sense. Also Melinda was suspecting that Emily was a vigilante, even if she was then why would she reveal it to everyone? So she could be trying to help scum.

Vote: Melinda Fox (Xenophobic Monoxide)

I know I will probably be wrong, but who knows?

This was all well and fine until today when we find out that both Isaac and Melinda are town and Emily is also killed via night action.

Isaac's posts are pretty benign outside of the bandwagoning. So it would seem like Isaac was being puppetted and would have found out he was being mislead after the votes were tallied since it looked like he'd been lead into a bandwagon and a town lynching by the same person.

It's unlikely that scum would do anything overt to out themselves. Isaac was killed because he knew something.

[jluck]

Personally, I think there are 2 Purists as we do not have a third party present as far as we know and there were two people killed in the night. Unless there is a Detective amongst us Loyalists who killed in the night instead of, well, detecting?

I'll expand this to bring in Information from yesterday rather than referencing it.

This starts on Day 1 during Adam's bandwagon, There were 3 quick succession votes for Adam.

These three votes are #'s 4-6 enough to push Adam to 50% of the room.

Emily noticed this.

Two of the three players make Emily's scum list.

Aaaaannnnnnddd then we lynched Melinda. Two of her 4 votes come at the same cadence as the Adam bandwagon.

This was all well and fine until today when we find out that both Isaac and Melinda are town and Emily is also killed via night action.

Isaac's posts are pretty benign outside of the bandwagoning. So it would seem like Isaac was being puppetted and would have found out he was being mislead after the votes were tallied since it looked like he'd been lead into a bandwagon and a town lynching by the same person.

It's unlikely that scum would do anything overt to out themselves. Isaac was killed because he knew something.

This is a great observation as long as we think Isaac was killed by scum for what he knew. What I find difficult to believe is that Isaac would trust someone on the PM system the first day of play. It's possible, just not certain. However, it was suggested that there may be a town detective. If that's true, it's also possible that isaac's day 1 play made a town member suspicious, and he got killed by them by accident.

So to recap, we are either looking for a "friend" of Isaac who set him up or we are looking for someone who is very cautious with their posts.

[Lady K]

This is a great observation as long as we think Isaac was killed by scum for what he knew. What I find difficult to believe is that Isaac would trust someone on the PM system the first day of play. It's possible, just not certain. However, it was suggested that there may be a town detective. If that's true, it's also possible that isaac's day 1 play made a town member suspicious, and he got killed by them by accident.

So to recap, we are either looking for a "friend" of Isaac who set him up or we are looking for someone who is very cautious with their posts.

Which makes it's very easy to think Emma and or Greg because they haven't defended themselves very well. But are we being lead to believe this so a repeat of day 1 is made?

We all need to be clear on who and why we vote, so there is no misleading of others and we get rid of the bad guys and not the good guys.

How much longer before we have to vote?

[-Horizon-]

Which makes it's very easy to think Emma and or Greg because they haven't defended themselves very well. But are we being lead to believe this so a repeat of day 1 is made?

We all need to be clear on who and why we vote, so there is no misleading of others and we get rid of the bad guys and not the good guys.

How much longer before we have to vote?

About 2 hours I think....

[getdamonkey]

About 2 hours I think....

If by two, you mean 16, then you're spot on.

Which makes it's very easy to think Emma and or Greg because they haven't defended themselves very well. But are we being lead to believe this so a repeat of day 1 is made?

We all need to be clear on who and why we vote, so there is no misleading of others and we get rid of the bad guys and not the good guys.

How much longer before we have to vote?

As a side note, "me too" type votes are pretty weak and don't contribute much info. I would encourage you to explain the vote in your own words.

[Comrade Commander]

First off, I guess I was under the wrong impression that days were 48hrs and not 72hrs. My bad!

I wonder if we could do a statistical analysis on who wins if nobody talks and randomly picks someone to vote for.

12 people were in the game to start off with.

We have 9 left. Let's hope there are only 3 Purists. If we lose 3 loyal townies tonight like we did last night, that leaves 3 scum and 3 town. Already a bad situation.

There just seems to be a lot of people not talking. And that bodes ill for us.

I would think 3 is a high number given the scum would win if we get today's vote wrong and two innocent people die tonight (correct me if I am wrong that when scum = town, it is a scum win because they can pretty much control everything[ie: deadlock a vote till night, and then pick off people one by one])

What I also want to know is what people think Isaac knew on day one? The only way the scum could con Isaac to vote along would be to claim town, and on day one we knew absolutely nothing about each others identities. The scum could have easily played it off as "oops, well now we know" when we killed an innocent person. If the scum had successfully fooled him into voting their way (something I think is highly unlikely) wouldn't they want to keep Isaac alive to continue the ploy? Isaac is dead now and his spirit is free to communicate to whoever he wants.. He just cannot speak to the living here in this room (correct me if I am wrong). Killing him would only free him to rat out his contacts, keeping him alive would have kept him on a tight leash.

Just my thoughts.

[vampyre78]

The only thing that keeps bugging me so far is that there was no real evidence or reason given for the initial votes on Melinda. These votes pulled the attention away from Adam or anyone else and also quickly piled on. Neither Willie or Greg gave much reason for voting Melinda. If Isaac hadn't flipped to follow Greg's vote, then Adam and Melinda would've been tied. What happens in a tie vote?

I've already said before that I voted for Adam initially due to the fact he was the only one with anything remotely suspicious about him at the time. I didn't change my vote to Melinda as I couldn't see any real reason for it.

The only thing I can see Melinda doing 'wrong' is that she accepted Emily's reasons and voted for Greg.

This addictively annoying game called IRL: Work Edition keeps stealing all my time!!