Secret Enemies - Day One

[JackJonespaw]

I initially would be inclined to agree with this, but there's something else I just thought of. Say a town Mayor picks a scum to be the TCC (not referring to either Lindsey or Edward, just making a general hypothesis). Then say the town Mayor is given Town, Mafia, Mafia and selects Town and Mafia to be given to the TCC. If the scum TCC was then to select the Mafia policy, then the Mayor could reveal that they sent a Town policy to the TCC, thus confirming the TCC as scum for choosing a mafia policy. Therefore a scum TCC, upon being sent one of each type of policy, is effectively forced to choose the Town policy to avoid confirming themselves as scum (provided the Mayor is town). If the Mayor is scum, this changes things and they could lie to back their teammate up.

To conclude, I don't think this "solidifies" Lindsey as town, since if Edward is town Lindsey would choose the Town policy regardless of her own alignment. What I think this does tell us for certain is that Edward and Lindsey are not both scum.

That does make sense, yea, and I don't doubt that it could happen. Maybe the scum are just biding their time until they get a lucky pick of cards.

In this scenario, the mayor is totally safe from being accused as a liar, as long as he speaks his piece after the TCC says hers.

[mediumsnowman]

It seems to me that at least one of them is town.

CK could have been given a couple possibilities, based on what KH said:

2 town 1 scum

2 scum 1 town

In the first case, CK throws out the town card, because he's scum.

In the second case, CK throws out the scum card, because he's town.

Then KH picks the town card, which we know, because he's also town.

So, if KH is telling the truth, CK has a 50% chance of being town and KH has a 100% chance of being town.

But of course this all goes out the window if KH is lying.

[fhomess]

I'm looking forward to hearing Edward's report of what cards he was given. I don't think Lindsey is cleared for enacting a town policy. On day 1, enacting a town policy would be a good way to gain trust for a future day.

Bob... do the discards get shuffled back in the deck, are they gone forever, or do they only get shuffled back in if the deck is exhausted and no one has won yet?

[jluck]

I'm looking forward to hearing Edward's report of what cards he was given. I don't think Lindsey is cleared for enacting a town policy. On day 1, enacting a town policy would be a good way to gain trust for a future day.

Bob... do the discards get shuffled back in the deck, are they gone forever, or do they only get shuffled back in if the deck is exhausted and no one has won yet?

My question exactly. Will tomorrow have one less town card since we've used one town card or does it go back into the deck?

[Tariq j]

But of course this all goes out the window if KH is lying.

Which could be a possibility since there is no confirming what he said was true. If CK threw out the scum card KH would have no choice but to pick the town card, which doesn't necessarily confirm him as town. Yet on the other hand I could be the other way round. It all depends on CK's report.

If a mafia was selected as a mayor would he immediately pick a mafia TCC? I could see it as the other round, a town mayor picking a mafia TCC OR a twin mafia member picking a town TCC.

[Chromeknight]

Lindsey is telling the truth about what I gave her.

I sent through a town and a scum card.

Because I was handed a town and two scum cards.

I would suggest that Lindsey is probably (but not definitely) town.

I agree with the assessment, that since no one can check what I threw there is doubt about what I am.

The two options for what the Guv handed me are

Town-scum-scum (10/15 = 66%)

And

Town-town-scum (5/15 = 33%)

So, yes, I'm claiming the more likely option, but not because it's more likely but because it is what happened.

[Dragonfire]

The thing is, even if Edward is lying and there were two Town cards to start with, there would simply be no point for a scum Mayor to send forth one of each if he knew the TCC was a townie. A smart scum Mayor would discard the scum policy, knowing that it wouldn't be enacted anyway, and thereby earn himself towncred for sending forward too town policies. Therefore unless both Edward and Lindsey are scum (an almost nonexistent possibility, as I have already discussed) it would not make sense for scum-Edward to lie, and thus he is probably telling the truth.

Edit: two not too. Seems my autocorrect betrayed me

[fhomess]

Lindsey is telling the truth about the cards she got... but it doesn't mean that she didn't enact a town policy to curry favor with the town for a future day.

I'm pretty sure the policy that is enacted is out of the deck for good... what I'm curious about is whether or not the two scum policies that were discarded are shuffled back in. Now, later, or never?

[Chromeknight]

The two scum policies are out until the policy deck is empty. At which point they're reshuffled and reused.

So as it stands.

Town - 1 Scum - 0

5 town, 9 scum policies in the deck.

2 scum policies discarded.

[Peanuts]

The thing is, even if Edward is lying and there were two Town cards to start with, there would simply be no point for a scum Mayor to send forth one of each if he knew the TCC was a townie. A smart scum Mayor would discard the scum policy, knowing that it wouldn't be enacted anyway, and thereby earn himself towncred for sending forward too town policies. Therefore unless both Edward and Lindsey are scum (an almost nonexistent possibility, as I have already discussed) it would not make sense for scum-Edward to lie, and thus he is probably telling the truth.

I don't think I agree. Say, you are a scum mayor and you are given two town cards and one scum card. If you pass on both town cards to the townie TCC, everyone will know that there were two town cards and you had no impact on the choice at all. However, if you pass on one of each and pretend that you were given two scum and one town, you are slightly more cleared. Now, based on probabilities, we can make the read that our mayor is town with probability 67%, as I said earlier. If he had passed on two town cards, we could not get any read on him, so even if he were scum, he should pass on one of each rather than two town policies in my opinion. That would be the choice that should gain him the most trust from us.

The two scum policies are out until the policy deck is empty. At which point they're reshuffled and reused.

So as it stands.

Town - 1 Scum - 0

5 town, 9 scum policies in the deck.

2 scum policies discarded.

Are the scum policies really discarded? That would be great!

[Dragonfire]

I don't think I agree. Say, you are a scum mayor and you are given two town cards and one scum card. If you pass on both town cards to the townie TCC, everyone will know that there were two town cards and you had no impact on the choice at all. However, if you pass on one of each and pretend that you were given two scum and one town, you are slightly more cleared. Now, based on probabilities, we can make the read that our mayor is town with probability 67%, as I said earlier. If he had passed on two town cards, we could not get any read on him, so even if he were scum, he should pass on one of each rather than two town policies in my opinion. That would be the choice that should gain him the most trust from us.

But the chance of all three cards being Town is so slim that anyone who is confirmed to have passed on two Town cards almost certainly discarded a scum card and therefore is likely to be Town.

Also, a scum Mayor might have wanted to discard the town card and say that he was given three scum cards, so that a scum policy would be passed.

[Bob]

This day is now over!

Are the scum policies really discarded? That would be great!

The cards are indeed discarded, but when I run out of cards in the deck I made (there's 17, we've used 3) they're reshuffled, so all the policies discarded are made into a new deck.

Edited July 15, 2016 by Bob