Unrest in the Forest - Day 7: Permanent Waves

[Scubacarrot]

I agree. Did I miss a joke?

Hm. No. I wasn't considering it as serious though, I mean, I assume that everyone would be working at the assumption that there would be one scum left. I'll just be quiet and stumpy I guess. Sorry.

Actually, I don't know how that would have worked. As Jack was only barely lynched yesterday, wouldn't three remaining scum just not have made sure there would be no lynch to have a higher chance of winning? Actually probably not, as if there was no lynch I assume that Jack would have been nightkilled. Seeing as the scum kill one, that would leave 2 in 6, right now there is possibly 2 in 5. That would assume that the vig would kill a townie and kill at all with so few people, so that's a big gambit. And who would be the scum besides Jack in that scenario? Surely not Simon, so rule him out. Everyone helped get Jack lynched, with Sue's swap being crucial right at the end, so I assume Sue isn't either. That leaves Lassie, Sammie and Adelaide. Let's say Adelaide, and either Lassie and Sammie. Lassie and Sammie both committed to the Jack lynch, with Lassie voting first.

I just don't think it's a viable option, I would assume scum would have won by now if it was the case that there were two left. I assume there is just one left to catch, and I think Adelaide is the town's best bet. No joke.

[Lady K]

Sue is being rather usually quiet, reserved, and hiding in the crowd, not making waves this game. I think Sue is the best bet for today. While I will agree that Adelaide could be a maple, I don't see the no vote of yesterday as a good choice. Given the last forest and how she played there, a no vote is standing way out from the crowd, not hiding in it or quietly following along. I think Sue is far more maple than Adelaide.

[Hinckley]

Hm. No. I wasn't considering it as serious though, I mean, I assume that everyone would be working at the assumption that there would be one scum left. I'll just be quiet and stumpy I guess. Sorry.

No, by all means, don't be quiet. You just put the laugh emoticon after saying there could be two more Scum. It was weird. Not sure what was funny about it, but whatever... we're obviously not communicating well with each other in this game.

Actually, I don't know how that would have worked. As Jack was only barely lynched yesterday, wouldn't three remaining scum just not have made sure there would be no lynch to have a higher chance of winning? Actually probably not, as if there was no lynch I assume that Jack would have been nightkilled. Seeing as the scum kill one, that would leave 2 in 6, right now there is possibly 2 in 5. That would assume that the vig would kill a townie and kill at all with so few people, so that's a big gambit. And who would be the scum besides Jack in that scenario? Surely not Simon, so rule him out. Everyone helped get Jack lynched, with Sue's swap being crucial right at the end, so I assume Sue isn't either. That leaves Lassie, Sammie and Adelaide. Let's say Adelaide, and either Lassie and Sammie. Lassie and Sammie both committed to the Jack lynch, with Lassie voting first.

I just don't think it's a viable option, I would assume scum would have won by now if it was the case that there were two left. I assume there is just one left to catch, and I think Adelaide is the town's best bet. No joke.

I agree with this. Adelaide and then Sammy if there's a tomorrow.

Sue is being rather usually quiet, reserved, and hiding in the crowd, not making waves this game. I think Sue is the best bet for today. While I will agree that Adelaide could be a maple, I don't see the no vote of yesterday as a good choice. Given the last forest and how she played there, a no vote is standing way out from the crowd, not hiding in it or quietly following along. I think Sue is far more maple than Adelaide.

Great, Mom and Dad are fighting.

We should keep in mind that a verified investigator cleared Sammy. Sammy's posts bug the shit out of me, but with only a few people left, Sue and Adelaide's behavior is equally if not more so, concerning. Maybe Sammy seems so Scummy because I'm paranoid or because he hasn't played for a while...and plays Scummy as Town. I guess it would have to be paranoia.

He did get the momentum going on Jack, too. He followed the suggestions of the stump showing that he was looking for guidance just like Bruce and I were, so maybe we should stop suspecting him.

[Lady K]

There is a pattern here, somewhere. For this day to succeed, all things need to be looked at. Sammy has been cleared true, but there has to be a godfather in this game so.......

[jimmynick]

There is a pattern here, somewhere. For this day to succeed, all things need to be looked at. Sammy has been cleared true, but there has to be a godfather in this game so.......

a) There doesn't have to be a godfather

b) It's wrong to assume that a godfather will have been investigated. Collectively, we investigated me, Clem, Bruce, Simon and Sammy. Clem and I got NKed early. We can't say that Sammy is the godfather "because there has to be one."

[Hinckley]

There usually is one when there is a miller. It would make sense with two investigators. Bruce and Sammy both think that one was naive, but I think they were both legit to balance the janitor. If you told me one of the investigated was a Godfather, I'd say Sammy in a heartbeat, even before it was just me and him left in the game. But, seriously, we're gonna have some apple pie today, I think.

[Lady K]

a) There doesn't have to be a godfather

b) It's wrong to assume that a godfather will have been investigated. Collectively, we investigated me, Clem, Bruce, Simon and Sammy. Clem and I got NKed early. We can't say that Sammy is the godfather "because there has to be one."

I wasn't saying he was, just that it was possible. I still believe him to be oak based on the data I am tracking and he just feels oak to me.

[Hinckley]

Sammy bringing up the size thing is seeming really Scummy to me suddenly, though. What a smart thing if he knew we were misinterpreting the missing stumps...

[Hinckley]

Sorry. I'll try not to be all over the board, I swear. But, I thought it was Scummy enough to bring it up in thread and now that we know there was a janitor, it seems even Scummier.

So, Jack Pine was blocked on Night Two and it's the only night we haven't seen a stump removed...

Speaking of being manic, I know that other people who have mentioned the idea of a janitor have pinged me. But let's consider for a second that there is one. Jack was blocked on the only night we didn't lose a stump. Is there something to that or am I crazy? Please tell me I'm crazy.

And really, I should be following my crazier instincts more often...

[jimmynick]

Sorry. I'll try not to be all over the board, I swear. But, I thought it was Scummy enough to bring it up in thread and now that we know there was a janitor, it seems even Scummier.

But would he bring up a lead that points straight at him?

I wasn't saying he was, just that it was possible. I still believe him to be oak based on the data I am tracking and he just feels oak to me.

OK.

[Bob]

Sue is being rather usually quiet, reserved, and hiding in the crowd, not making waves this game. I think Sue is the best bet for today. While I will agree that Adelaide could be a maple, I don't see the no vote of yesterday as a good choice. Given the last forest and how she played there, a no vote is standing way out from the crowd, not hiding in it or quietly following along. I think Sue is far more maple than Adelaide.

I think this has happened in every game we've played together. Either you suspect me or I suspect you and then we both get each other lynched and we're both town.

[Lady K]

I think this has happened in every game we've played together. Either you suspect me or I suspect you and then we both get each other lynched and we're both town.

If this is the case here then would you care to provide some thoughts on who is the final scum or two? Normally you have been more forward with your opinions, so lets here them.

I have a question that is bothering me. I was convinced Jack was the scum killer/janitor yesterday, I would have voted for him if I could have. He turned up maple today and now everyone seems suspicious of the one person he tried to lynch yesterday. I agree Adelaide's no vote doesn't make sense from any stand point. But why are we not looking into the possibility that she could be an oak? Her posts seem well thought out, Jack initial reasons to vote for her didn't really make sense to me and to vote for a fellow scum seems like the smart thing to do at this stage of the game to hide in the crowd.

[Hinckley]

But would he bring up a lead that points straight at him?

Because it doesn't, at all. He suggested that each of the "scum" (the four non-stumps) were all a different size and the remaining size category contained William and Lassie. That would lead me further down my road of pursuing Lassie. This was suggested before momentum built on Jack (February 26, 8:49 AM CST). And it turns my attention away from the player we had night action results pointing to. It's convenient that each non-stump was from a different "size category" and the two people I was suspicious of, besides Jack, were in the remaining category. And it's very clever for him to think of it. And when I told him to bring up the idea publicly he resisted. That's why I did mention it. I wanted to see if it pinged anyone else. So he didn't want to announce it publicly, just plant the seed with me. That's a pretty clever Scum play, if that's what it is. But Sammy has played long enough to know that games aren't set up this way, but what he was suggesting was that Alder, as a first time host, had chosen the Scum this way. I also think Alder has been playing long enough to know not to set it up that way.

It's super pingy.

If this is the case here then would you care to provide some thoughts on who is the final scum or two? Normally you have been more forward with your opinions, so lets here them.

I have a question that is bothering me. I was convinced Jack was the scum killer/janitor yesterday, I would have voted for him if I could have. He turned up maple today and now everyone seems suspicious of the one person he tried to lynch yesterday. I agree Adelaide's no vote doesn't make sense from any stand point. But why are we not looking into the possibility that she could be an oak? Her posts seem well thought out, Jack initial reasons to vote for her didn't really make sense to me and to vote for a fellow scum seems like the smart thing to do at this stage of the game to hide in the crowd.

[Hinckley]

I quoted Catarina but forgot what I was going to say. I need to ask Bruce some things but don't have my code spreadsheet on my phone. I'll be back later tonight.

[MagPiesRUs]

Ok, that's interesting. So apparently the maples were able to janitor one person each day. That means that the absence of Alastair, Barry, Hazel or Peter in no way makes them scum. Alastair is perhaps the least likely to be scum, being the day one lynch and therefore the most informative death of the night. Barry was making weird roleclaims and was janitored instead of Catarina, which makes him a little more likely to be scum. I would be inclined to believe Hazel was scum, but her post-death PMs make me think she is town, because it would be pretty despicable if it wasn't. Peter was obviously a killer. The absence of a third kill could suggest he was the SK, but I think his behaviour (pre and post-death) suggest to me that he is scum.

I must have missed this yesterday, but this seems to be the only mention that Sammy was investigated instead of Jack:

Also, why would Sammy be upset that we "wasted" an investigation clearing him? Is he the godfather?

It would be a pretty ridiculous ploy to pretend to think that Jack was investigated, especially after he'd already been lynched.

I'm inclined to believe Sue must be scum. Happy to hop on my bandwagon, never said a bad word about Jack until the final moment when a hammer was needed. Sue, did you think Jack was scum? It sounds like you were convinced I was scum until the bandwagon turned against Jack. Did you think Jack was scum? Did you hammer him simply because we needed a lynch, or because you knew it would look good today that you helped lynch a scum buddy?

Did you find the last minute bandwagon against Jack suspicious? Or did you think both me and him were scum? It's not like there was any new evidence brought up against Jack at the end of the day, it was common knowledge that he was blocked since the early morning.

[MagPiesRUs]

Barry was making weird roleclaims and was janitored instead of Catarina, which makes him a little more likely to be scum.

I got that wrong. Barry was killed on the day Larry was lynched and Bobby was killed. I think the point still stands though, as I feel either of them would be a better janitor choice for spreading confusion.

Except there's no explicit statement of Chester being chopped down, so I think Alder just forgot to name Chester in the images. The roots - just seeing a different side of the tree. And the leaves - Chester has the darkest leaves of any of the three of you (Chester, Waldorf, Sammy) with that large, lighter color trunk. So I'm 99.5% sure that's Chester with spikes in him. If I was going to read ANYTHING into it, I'd say Chester was a bomb and Peter was the scum killer, but I still don't think the images are supposed to hint anything.

I think this supports the idea that Peter was the maple killer. Jack seems a little annoyed that the images proved that Peter was a killer. I'm guessing they janitored him expecting that information not to be revealed. Unless the SK and the scum were somehow working together, the maples wouldn't have known that Peter was a SK and would have assumed he was a townie. In this light, it seems obvious that the maples would have janitored Berty if Peter wasn't scum. With Hazel and Berty both janitored, we would have assumed both were scum and would have trusted Jack more as a result for his part in both lynches. So I think Peter is most assuredly scum.

[jimmynick]

With Hazel and Berty both janitored, we would have assumed both were scum and would have trusted Jack more as a result for his part in both lynches. So I think Peter is most assuredly scum.

Well, Jack already admitted to us that the janitor had no clue what he was doing...

[fhomess]

I think Adelaide avoided voting yesterday out of fear. I think she was hoping the bandwagon on Jack would not reach completion and then once it did, she didn't want to add a late vote. By not voting, she doesn't have any specific thing to defend against and today she's completely avoiding the question of why she didn't vote.

[Hinckley]

Waldorf, n4913 SUXT no Claudio Night 6. So, n3800 n3372? Maybe n4913 changed? And Claudio n3800? Either way, for n7019 to SUXT Claudio, at this point n7019 SUXT Claudio n3800. Right? Does that make sense? to Conrad n4774.

Bruce, n7489 KISW no 6339 Night 6. So, n5333 n3331? Maybe n7489 changed? And n3331 n5333? Either way, for n7008 to KISW 6339, at this point n7008 KISW n3331 n5333. Right? Does that make sense? to 2424 n5086.

This is giving me a headache.

[MagPiesRUs]

I think Adelaide avoided voting yesterday out of fear. I think she was hoping the bandwagon on Jack would not reach completion and then once it did, she didn't want to add a late vote. By not voting, she doesn't have any specific thing to defend against and today she's completely avoiding the question of why she didn't vote.

I live on the opposite side of the forest to the rest of you. When I went to sleep, there was only one vote on Jack. When I woke up, he was lynched. Had I been around to comment, and had someone clarified who had been investigated, I may have voted for Jack. As it was, I did not feel confident enough to throw my vote in against Jack - especially since my voted wouldn't have changed anything. A no vote looks a lot worse than a late vote for a scum (especially when the late vote would be justified by the fact that I slept through the entire bandwagon), so I don't know why I'd do that to myself were I a maple.

I didn't have time to put a case together against someone, but if I did I probably would have voted against Sammy. In light of Sammy being investigated and Jack being revealed as scum, I'm willing to believe he is a townie at the moment though.

I notice that Sue has been active since I asked her why she switched votes. It's not that difficult a question to answer, is it?

[Hinckley]

A lot of people assume Peter was Scum and not SK because of his group comment in the confirmation thread. I assumed the same affiliation for Hazel because she mentioned screwing things up or something like that. We can't play the game in that thread so I'm not going to quote it but it says he did terrible but he wants to see what happens next. And then he winked at us. That seemed Scummy. Adelaide made it a point to let us all know how quickly Hazel changed her avatar and signature as well.

The first two days, Scum placed the hammer vote. Why does that bug me?

[MagPiesRUs]

A lot of people assume Peter was Scum and not SK because of his group comment in the confirmation thread. I assumed the same affiliation for Hazel because she mentioned screwing things up or something like that. We can't play the game in that thread so I'm not going to quote it but it says he did terrible but he wants to see what happens next. And then he winked at us. That seemed Scummy. Adelaide made it a point to let us all know how quickly Hazel changed her avatar and signature as well.

I really don't want to be affected by what others have been saying outside of the game, but it is really hard to ignore once you know. Prior to any behind-the-scenes drama, I did find it odd how adamantly Peter clung to my theory about Hazel.

Personally, I find myself agreeing more with the theory today. Does anyone find it odd that Hazel removed her avatar and signature soon after she was lynched? Seems like she wasn't expecting to return to us today...

Oh my god that ia just Brilliant. Affiliation comfirmed: Maple!

Vote: Berty Birch (Dragonfire)

Hazel is SCUM. Her actions after leaving this game made it quite clear she knew she was getting janitored. You claiming otherwise is hujust shady.

Well thanks a lot but Hazels affiliation is crystal clear. Saying otherwise is just stupid.

I don't know, that doesn't look like a maple trying to distance himself from a buddy to me. It looks like a maple who can't believe his luck.

[Hinckley]

I live on th...estion to answer, is it?

Jack's dying words were that Adelaide didn't vote. That would be a very odd Scum gambit... Hey! My Scum-mate didn't even vote!! Whiiiiiiiirrrr (sound of a chainsaw)...

I can't even imagine it as WIFOM. If it is, it didn't work as we're still scrutinizing her lack of vote. Not voting at that point would be rather conspicuous. People seem to be scrutinizing those who join bandwagons after the hammer in this game. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. She did explain her lack of vote, as well. And she didn't need to even reply to anything. She could've logged out and pretended her phone died before she could finish reading or something.

I feel like we have to be right today or it's over. It'd be nice to know how many were left. Hey Scum, how many do you have left?

It's 4am, I'm out...

Hazel is SCUM. Her actions after leaving this game made it quite clear she knew she was getting janitored. You claiming otherwise is hujust shady.

I don't know, that doesn't look like a maple trying to distance himself from a buddy to me. It looks like a maple who can't believe his luck.

I wouldn't say I think of suave subtlety when I think of Peter. The strange thing about what he said and when he said is that he used the term "janitored" during a time of the game that we were all thinking only Oaks became Stumps. At the same time, Hazel's confirmation thread message and wink was really cryptic. I can't imagine a janitored Townie would wink at us like that. Maybe I'm reading too far into it. Either way, Peter could also be over-performing a decision to admit Hazel's guilt since the message was so obvious. It's rare people are that confident. Kind of like this:

I was talking about Hazel. You will be the fourth janitored tree.

There's no such thing as a janitor.

This is very confident. It reminds me of the way Peter addressed the issue, but done with a little more finesse. If Sammy is Scum, this confidence would've come from knowing Berty would be lynched and they could clean him up with the janitor. That plan would've been ruined by our friend Chester "Steel Spikes" Chestnut, friendly neighborhood bomb. Either way, cleared-as-Oak Sammy keeps coming up with new ways to ping.

[Bob]

I'm inclined to believe Sue must be scum. Happy to hop on my bandwagon, never said a bad word about Jack until the final moment when a hammer was needed. Sue, did you think Jack was scum? It sounds like you were convinced I was scum until the bandwagon turned against Jack. Did you think Jack was scum? Did you hammer him simply because we needed a lynch, or because you knew it would look good today that you helped lynch a scum buddy?

Did you find the last minute bandwagon against Jack suspicious? Or did you think both me and him were scum? It's not like there was any new evidence brought up against Jack at the end of the day, it was common knowledge that he was blocked since the early morning.

Of course you're inclined to believe I'm scum, you're trying to save your own skin today. Voting for Jack was a mixture of both. I believe strongly that you're scum, but given the case yesterday against Jack I felt more confident voting for him. Would you have preferred a no-lynch yesterday? I know that it probably screwed up your plans. Had I not hammered Jack, would you have voted for him? Would you have been content with no conviction at such a late stage in the game? Tell me, if I'm scum, why didn't I unvote Jack at the last second? I was online for the rest of the day, so it's not because I stopped paying attention.

[Dragonfire]

To cause confusion about the remaining numbers? I don't know. Maybe you're right...

As I said, it doesn't make sense from a Maple point of view.

She told me in private we thought we had said Jack had been cleared by an investigator. Then she quoted something from me that was two thoughts run together. It kind of looks like I was saying he was investigated, but I know we were clear by the end of the day that it was Sammy who had been investigated. I'll find the quote.

That's kind of like a subtle defence of Jack, disguised as a misunderstanding.

I see a pattern here of hiding in the majority group above the lynch needed votes except on two occasions, Hazel and Jack. And both these were the last vote cast. Jack is a maple, I believe Hazel was too along with Alistair. On all the Oak stumps her vote was above what was needed.

So you think Barry and Peter were Oaks ??

Thanks for the analysis. It's interesting. Who do the stumps think make the most sense to lynch today? By stumps, I mean Catarina and Waldorf.

That's offensive. I've been active and helped the town as a stump - and I posted my vote analysis tables

. I don't know why you're so stuck to the idea that Hazel is an Oak. It's what got you lynched on Day Five.

Day One up to Hazel's selfvote : I thought Hazel was scummy.

End of Day Four : I thought Hazel was town

Day Five : I wasn't sure about Hazel's alignment, but I pushed for town-Hazel to avoid looking flip-floppy.

Day Six : Following Hazel's rule-breaking PM to me, I was convinced she was town.

Actually, I don't know how that would have worked. As Jack was only barely lynched yesterday, wouldn't three remaining scum just not have made sure there would be no lynch to have a higher chance of winning? Actually probably not, as if there was no lynch I assume that Jack would have been nightkilled. Seeing as the scum kill one, that would leave 2 in 6, right now there is possibly 2 in 5. That would assume that the vig would kill a townie and kill at all with so few people, so that's a big gambit. And who would be the scum besides Jack in that scenario? Surely not Simon, so rule him out. Everyone helped get Jack lynched, with Sue's swap being crucial right at the end, so I assume Sue isn't either. That leaves Lassie, Sammie and Adelaide. Let's say Adelaide, and either Lassie and Sammie. Lassie and Sammie both committed to the Jack lynch, with Lassie voting first.

I just don't think it's a viable option, I would assume scum would have won by now if it was the case that there were two left. I assume there is just one left to catch, and I think Adelaide is the town's best bet. No joke.

I agree. Three remaining scum could have guaranteed a no-lynch, especially when you (an Oak) voted for someone other than Jack.

I really agree that it's likely to be just Adelaide, or Adelaide and Lassie/Sammy (but this is less likely).

]I would be inclined to believe Hazel was scum, but her post-death PMs make me think she is town, because it would be pretty despicable if it wasn't.

This is why I agree. Hazel seemed like a decent person, and not the kind of person who would do this as scum.

Peter was obviously a killer. The absence of a third kill could suggest he was the SK, but I think his behaviour (pre and post-death) suggest to me that he is scum.

Of course you would want the town to think that he was scum. Maples want us to underestimate the number of surviving scum, and to believe that the SK still exists. Tell me, Adelaide, why would the SK not kill on Night Five or Night Six ??

If you think the SK is still alive, who do you think they are?

I'm inclined to believe Sue must be scum. Happy to hop on my bandwagon, never said a bad word about Jack until the final moment when a hammer was needed.

But you didn't hammer him when a hammer was needed....

I think this supports the idea that Peter was the maple killer. Jack seems a little annoyed that the images proved that Peter was a killer. I'm guessing they janitored him expecting that information not to be revealed. Unless the SK and the scum were somehow working together, the maples wouldn't have known that Peter was a SK and would have assumed he was a townie. In this light, it seems obvious that the maples would have janitored Berty if Peter wasn't scum. With Hazel and Berty both janitored, we would have assumed both were scum and would have trusted Jack more as a result for his part in both lynches. So I think Peter is most assuredly scum.

I think the Maples have a role cop. What else could explain the deaths of both investigators one after the other? One of them could have been a lucky guess, but both of them is pushing it. They could have also role-copped Peter and found out that he was the SK.

Are we sure that the Maples get a list of everyone who is going to die, every night, and can choose who to janitor? On the other site I played on, the janitor could only janitor the scum kill or the lynchee.

I think Adelaide avoided voting yesterday out of fear. I think she was hoping the bandwagon on Jack would not reach completion and then once it did, she didn't want to add a late vote. By not voting, she doesn't have any specific thing to defend against and today she's completely avoiding the question of why she didn't vote.

Yes, I agree.

This is very confident. It reminds me of the way Peter addressed the issue, but done with a little more finesse. If Sammy is Scum, this confidence would've come from knowing Berty would be lynched and they could clean him up with the janitor. That plan would've been ruined by our friend Chester "Steel Spikes" Chestnut, friendly neighbourhood bomb. Either way, cleared-as-Oak Sammy keeps coming up with new ways to ping

Yes, I think this makes sense from a Scum perspective.

Scenario 1: Peter was the SK, Barry was Scum.

N1: Vig is blocked, Peter kills Buck, Jack (I assume) kills Lauren

N2: Vig kills Agnes, Peter kills Vicky, Jack is blocked

N3: Vig kills Bobby, Peter kills Barry, Jack kills Clem

N4: Vig kills no-one, Peter kills Maggie, Jack kills Waldorf

N5: Vig kills Nash, Peter kills Chester, Chester passively kills Peter ***

N6: Vig kills William, Scum kills Bruce

*** What did scum do on N5 ?? Were they blocked? Was the target protected?

Scenario 2: Peter and Barry were both Scum

For this scenario to be true, the scum must have been able to switch the kill action between them

N1: Vig is blocked, SK kills Buck, Scum kill Lauren

N2: Vig kills Agnes, SK kills Vicky, Jack is blocked

N3: Vig kills Bobby, SK kills Barry, Scum kill Clem

N4: Vig kills no-one, SK kills Maggie, Scum kill Waldorf

N5: Vig kills Nash, Peter kills Chester, Chester passively kills Peter ***

N6: Vig kills William, Bruce is killed.

*** What did the SK do on N5 ?? Same question.

If this scenario is true, then the SK could still be alive. The SK could have limited kill shots and could have either chosen not to or been unable to kill on N5 and N6. Unless the SK did kill Bruce, and it was the Maples who were blocked.

Barry was clearly not the SK. Peter could have been. But the more pressing issue is, could there be a SK and a Maple left alive? Worse yet, a SK and two Maples?