1980-Something-Space-Guy

Precisely. This is more of a guide for people who want to know about how many random packets they should buy, but as we have mentioned, there are many instances in which the packets will not be completely random.

OK, thanks.

I've been wanting to order some series 7 figs for a while, but I feel unsafe with all this breach. Has anybody got any advice as to how much I should wait?

Hey people, sorry for bumping this, but I turned this into a poll (which I couldn't do before), and now that Alien Conquest is leaving us, perhaps you could say some final thoughts. As for me, I changed my mind after seeing some of the sets. I don't think that they're up to the previous designs, but I find them fairly good.

I think that you can get a good idea of the availability of certain sets (for instance, "Hard to find", or small sets that are very common), but it's harder with bigger sets. Even Lego has a hard time predicting whether or not a certain amount of sets is going to satisfy demand, as in the series 1 and 2 CMFs. I'm not actually looking to invest. I just want to be able to buy certain figs and sets, but since I just can't buy them all at once, I would like to have ways to know which ones are less likely to shoot up in price. But I agree with the statement above. The market is not rational, and therefore it is hard to predict.

Yes Itaria, as I indicated, these calculations don't consider the distribution to come from the same box, but rather completely random. This applies more to the scenario in which you just buy random figs from different places hoping to complete a set, though, but it gives you an estimate. However, when you order online, you never know if all the figs come from the same box. And yes, the chance I put there is based on the equal distribution figs, but it gives you a good estimate. I don't know the precise number for the actual weighed distributions, but Weil and Vexorian did that work, and that's why I linked to it.

Well, problems putting minifig accessories in their hands are not that rare. I once damaged the plastic of a suitcase from my Metroliner set by trying to put in a minifig hand. The same happened to me with the CMF series 3 elf and its bow. I'd say the brown plastic is prone to this. I just don't put accessories on my minifigures' hands anymore.

Well, hopefully it'll inspire some Stormtrooper battle pack of some sort, that is within Lego's licensing rights. That's looking at the "Bucket" like half full.

I love these Lego commercials. They have such a creative, playative, childish aspect to themselves. Not to mention the great graphics, as always. Kudos, Lego, Kudos.

Wow, the prices are amazing! I don't have that much spare parts and I don't like taking apart my sets, but these are very tempting! Great contest! Good luck to everyone!

Thanks for those links, Cammo! I might be tempted to buy this game. I can't keep up with all these amazing TT games, and I've only played the first one!

It has other figures that are very desirable for some collectors. And comparing MISB vs. open sets' prices depends on the set. It makes a lot of difference in classic sets, but not as much in other ones. I have seen some used sets sell for prices similar to new ones, just because they were sold on different sites (e.g. Bricklink vs. eBay).

Yes, that is right, although less likely depending on the seller. For instance, if you order online from Lego, or from TRU.

So there are no stores that sell CMFs near to you, and you want to get a complete set. So, you go online to buy CMF packets, and buying random packets is often cheaper than buying identified minifigs. You know that if you buy 16 packets, it's very unlikely that you'll get all 16 figs (actually your chances would be 1 in 20,922,789,888,000). So, you wonder, how many packets should you buy? Back then when series 6 was just new, Weil, Vexorian, and I discussed on the CMF series 6 thread about the probability of getting a complete set of 16 figs out of n completely random packs. Our problem is a specific case of the coupon's collector problem, and here is a blog post elsewhere about our "Minifigure Collector's Problem". However, this blog post didn't help us find the probability of getting a complete set after buying n packets, so we got to work. We all got consistent results, but took different approaches that have different applications. However, I just thought that it would be convenient to have all this info summarized in one post, so people interested in it don't have to dig in the series 6 thread whenever a new series arrives. I will start with my approach, since it's the one with more limitations in our specific case. Assuming that all the figs come in equal distribution (which is not the case), the probability of getting all the figs out of n random packets is given by this formula: %29*%2816-i%29^n*%28-1%29^%28i%2B1%29]]%2F%2816^n%29"] In case you are interested in the Math behind it, I calculated this formula manually using the inclusion-exclusion principle. Go ahead, try some values of n! You'll notice that the probability is obviously 0 for n in {1,2,3,...,15}, extremely low for n=16, and that the least amount of packets that you would need to buy to get a 50% chance would be 51. Vexorian, on the other hand, used dynamic programming to consider the actual distribution weights of the figs. Although the probabilities vary depending on the distribution (more even distributions tend to make the probability higher), and this means that the probabilities might vary from series to series, the distribution for series 7 is the same as it was in series 6 (3 figs come 5 times in a box, 6 figs come 4 times in a box, and 7 figs come 3 times in a box), and I think that we can expect this distribution to continue to be used, so Vexorian's calculations are still the same for series 7 (and any series that has the same distribution scheme, for that matter). He made a table with the probability calculated for different values of n, and a blog post in which he further discusses the work he made. I'd summarize the specifics, but I don't know that much about programming, and you're better off if you read about his own work written by himself. Vexorian's program is also useful to determine the expected number of bags you would need to buy to get any specific arrangement of figs (3 Galaxy Patrols, 5 Bunny Suit guys, and 2 Daredevils, for instance), so it has wider applications. Finally, Weil also wrote a program to calculate the probabilities, which, however, uses a completey different approach than Vexorian's. He used the Monte Carlo Method. He even made a graph of the probability to get a complete set out of n packets, comparing our different approaches and showing that they are consistent. Take a look if you'd like to see how the probability changes as n grows. Weil's Graph So, what do we all conclude? As you can see, you'd need to buy a fairly high amount of figs to get a good chance to get 16 minifigs. We found it interesting and fun to calculate said probabilities, but our results show that you're better off going bag feeling or buying figs off Bricklink. Buying random figs is not economically practical. One important note, though. When you order random packets online, the figs you get are probably not that random. They probably come from the same box or a group of boxes, and all boxes have all the minifigs, so the selection that you get is not 100% random. However, it could also be the case that the seller tampers with the distribution to lower your chances of getting a complete set. It goes both ways. Still, these numbers give you a guide, and it goes to show that you're better off identifying bags or buying lose figs. Good luck in your figure hunting!

That is very enlightening. I had wondered about the Watto figure too. Some people do seem to have some sixth sense for this kind of things, though. Jeez, I mean, if somebody though about keeping a few Cloud Fetts to sell today, he or she could make quite good money out of them. And this is not to mention the Maersk madness and the red Vader helmets.

Very well done! I'd have this as a piece of decoration in my room. Any plans to make other superhero mosaics?

The problem is, some figs seem to be abundant, until a couple of years later. That makes it hard to predict.

Wow. To tell you the truth, I feel impressed that this happens in economically developed countries. I'm usually ashamed of dishonesty in my country, because people here are often more dishonest than people in the US, for instance. I wasn't aware that this kind of things happened there too.

Didn't know there was someone new from Costa Rica! There are quite a few of us around here. I believe we are about 4 or 5. In case you're interested, here are other Latin Americans on Eurobricks. Cheers, and pura vida!

Not that I have anything against Britons, but I'd like a complete set without the team GB marks. It'd be nice to have a generic olympic team with the same figs.

I like the addition of voices. It was funny without them, of course, but I think that it makes a great addition. It works greatly in the trailer, at least. I liked the trailer overall, and I'm excited for this game. However, I'm disappointed at Lego using belching for humor.

Thanks for the review. I must admit, I'm not fond at all of this set, though. I rate it "below average" instead of "poor" because of the fig. I don't find it aesthetic, I'm not satisfied at the lack of front protection (the fig is still not well protected against dust), and the fig didn't get the classic face.

I mean mainly the selling price, although the sold price has risen too. In the case of the Cloud Fett, what makes it more weird is the fact that we did get a re-release of the Fett fig a few years ago, and that didn't seem to make the prices drop. However, that could be because of its unusual arm printings.

I've had a couple of surprises while seeing prices of minifigs and sets vary years after they have been released. Take, for instance, getting a new Cloud City Boba Fett minifig. I purchased this fig when it was already expensive, at $75, in 2010. Back then, it was possible to get the fig at about $70-$100. Out of curiosity, I've seen the new prices for the fig, and it looks like even though the fig was released in 2003, the prices continue to increase in a short amount of time. Today, two years after I purchased the fig, it looks like the price for the fig has tripled in three years! (Take a look at eBay and Bricklink). So, we're speaking of a huge increase in 2 years, even though the fig isn't much older now than it was back then in 2010. I'm perplexed at this increase and I can't tell why it is. I mean, it's a rare fig, but conditions back in 2010 can't be that different from those now. I've seen this kind of unexpected price increases with other figs and sets, and since I'm a collector and I can't always buy figs or sets when they are released, I'm interested in knowing if there is any way to predict these fluctuations. Could anyone have predicted that mysterious 200% price increase of the Boba Fett fig, for instance?

I can't believe that! If it was you who opened the packets, why would YOU be telling the employee that you saw opened packets? Logic should tell the employee that it wasn't you. Anyways, if you get that reaction when you tell, then just don't do anything about it. It's the store's fault; you would tell them if you didn't get that reaction.