World Economic Crisis - How will it affect our favourite toy?

[Captain Green Hair]

It just makes BLing from America more expensive - but I was lucky to pay for an order just hours before the pound dropped sharply

They're dropping like flies

I think you mean mortgage

Yeah that thing that costs a lot every month

[pr0visorak]

Well one thing for sure is that we will never know what can happen to the lego company. If the Wall Street crashes like it did before,we will all be in trouble including the lego company.Many countries will be affected as we are all very dependant on the trade of America.This will cost our countries to lose money and stop trade.Causing the shipping price to increase and stopping the import of Lego.I am not saying that this will happen.I am just saying that there is a possibility. Even if Lego still expotrs their products,be prepared to pay thrice the price you paid before.

There are many reasons why the market is falling.But those are all under economics which I am proud to say I am good at!:gri

[frogstudio]

The world's run by certain corrupt banking families who have been doing "this" from back in Napoleon's time. Some slightly further.

All these economic, environmental and so-called "terrorist" acts are, I believe, fully orchestrated.

(Hey, there's some nice money to be had when you're funding both sides of a war!)

These terrible events in recent human history seem to be premeditated well in advance.

For those interested in this point of view, I would recomend two films/documentaries:

a) Zeitgeist

b) The End of Suburbia

Two really interesting movies that, in my opinion will get your brain moving and make you question yourself a lot of things...

[Opproperaar]

Are you referring to the Flemish, the Brussels, the Wallons, or the Federal Government? Or do you mean the Dutch community governemet? Or the French comm. gov.? The German comm. government?

Please be more specific!

Yeah...I know...its to cry about...

Maybe we Flemish people should just join the Netherlands

(no political view involved)

I could go and on about our political system and all things involved, but I don't want to preach since I can't stand myself when I do

All in all it is safe to say it's complicated, 6 governments, though I've never heard of the German community government. As far as I know they're just another language group, but administratively, they are simply included in the Walloon Community.

I've got my savings at Fortis as well. So far I'm not worried yet, my savings are safe, for now... However, should the crisis also affect the savings then the government would have to pay for it which they simply can't. There's simply not enough money for it, besides the tax money they would use to reimburse us is our own money in the first place.

But what alternative do we have?

[Zorro]

I could go and on about our political system and all things involved, but I don't want to preach since I can't stand myself when I do

All in all it is safe to say it's complicated, 6 governments, though I've never heard of the German community government. As far as I know they're just another language group, but administratively, they are simply included in the Walloon Community.

I've got my savings at Fortis as well. So far I'm not worried yet, my savings are safe, for now... However, should the crisis also affect the savings then the government would have to pay for it which they simply can't. There's simply not enough money for it, besides the tax money they would use to reimburse us is our own money in the first place.

But what alternative do we have?

Yup, your right.

My parents have decided its time to buy SOLAR PANELS, that could be a good investment.

But you need enough sun and some other things.

Saving accounts are one thing, at least you can "evacuate" those deposits, but when they would touch our pension saving plans thats something different.

Yeah, your right about the German Community, they are mostly integrated, but they still do have a minister-president...

[Eilif]

I suppose it was only a matter of time before the conspiracy theorists got in the game, but returning to the original topic of the thread...

From a TLG point of view, we should be glad that this is happening now, and not before LEGO's reorganiziation. If this had happened from '98-'03, a time in which TLG lost money in 4 of 7 years, we could really have been looking at a company that could have folded, shrunk dramatically, or been acquired by another less pricipled company.

Thankfully the TLG that is presently weathering these storms is a company that has been on the upswing, and has drastically streamlined their supply chain to make the company as a whole much more efficient.

If you want to read more about the company's previous woes, and how they turned it around, check out this article:

http://www.strategy-business.com/press/art...7-1876-26315955

It's from fall of 07, but it's still very relevant.

[brickzone]

I agree with Eilif. Indeed, so much so, that I would wonder if TLG might continue to do well even during this present crisis, due to their strong position currently. Mind you, I would be concerned for their US market. I doubt they can indefinitely subsidise it with European and other markets. The dollar has moved slightly back up again, but I would still wonder if it will ever be in a strong position again? And it looks like increasing the prices in the US is not an option - many there seem loathe to pay even the current prices.

[Eilif]

I agree with Eilif. Indeed, so much so, that I would wonder if TLG might continue to do well even during this present crisis, due to their strong position currently. Mind you, I would be concerned for their US market. I doubt they can indefinitely subsidise it with European and other markets. The dollar has moved slightly back up again, but I would still wonder if it will ever be in a strong position again? And it looks like increasing the prices in the US is not an option - many there seem loathe to pay even the current prices.

Thanks Brickzone,

I wouldn't worry too much about the US market. The US might never have the financial pull they had a decade ago, but the dollar will recover. Also, I think that "subsidize" is a misrepresentation. US prices are lower, and the profit margins and growth are lower. "Subsidize" implies unprofitability on it's own, but there is nothing in the TLG annual report http://cache.lego.com/downloads/aboutus/an...eport2007UK.pdf to suggest that the US markets are unprofitable "loss-leaders" for TLG.

[JINZONINGEN73]

I suppose it was only a matter of time before the conspiracy theorists got in the game, but returning to the original topic of the thread...

Yeah, it feels "irresponsible" to not jump in wherever opportunities arise.

I can't remember who said it first, but it goes something like, "I don't mind a person calling me a conspiracy theorist, so long as they admit themselves to being an EXTREME COINCIDENCE theorist".

You're right though, the dollar, though not as healthy, will recover. I think it was Ron Paul who said the bailout of the banks by the government is a TERRIBLE idea, and that things should just be left the heck alone so house and other prices go back down to a realistic price point...

It's hard to begin a "recovery" on something when you don't even know what a "normal" price for an item is yet.

Bailing out the same people who caused the mess in the first place is like sending firefighters holding gasoline tanks into a building that's still burning.

[Zarkan]

You're right though, the dollar, though not as healthy, will recover. I think it was Ron Paul who said the bailout of the banks by the government is a TERRIBLE idea, and that things should just be left the heck alone so house and other prices go back down to a realistic price point...

Correction: the bailout of the banks by the American TAXPAYERS was a bad idea. This bailout plan may have sounded good to the people in goverment, but it was only because common people like us would be paying for everything in the end. Fortunately, we actually saw enough bipartisan opposition to sink the bill - something we don't see too often in the US.

All I can say is, whoever we get for president, I doubt that they will have much effect on the overall crisis. America may be headed by the Commander in Chief, but he really can't do much unless the corrupt congress lets him. Part of me has been thinking for a while that we should just fire the whole Senate and House and start all over - half of the people there have been there for years and years, and it's time we got new people that actually have a bigger vision than filling their pockets with money and power.

Edited October 1, 2008 by Grevious

[Eilif]

Yeah, it feels "irresponsible" to not jump in wherever opportunities arise.

I understand. When concience compells, you gotta speak up.

It's hard to begin a "recovery" on something when you don't even know what a "normal" price for an item is yet.

You are of course assuming there is such a thing as a Normal Price

Bailing out the same people who caused the mess in the first place is like sending firefighters holding gasoline tanks into a building that's still burning.

Right there with you. Most of "the same people" aren't going to get what they deserve, but hopefully our elected officials will find a middle ground that gives them a spank or two and leaves boths sides equally dissatisfied. After all, mutual and opposing dissatisfaction is the hallmark of stable American democracy.

Geez, now I'm way off topic too. I blame the Rebel Admin. It's always good policy to blame the Rebels.

Edited October 1, 2008 by Eilif

[Zorro]

All I can say is, whoever we get for president, I doubt that they will have much effect on the overall crisis. America may be headed by the Commander in Chief, but he really can't do much unless the corrupt congress lets him. Part of me has been thinking for a while that we should just fire the whole Senate and House and start all over - half of the people there have been there for years and years, and it's time we got new people that actually have a bigger vision than filling their pockets with money and power.

We need people that can concentrate on mutual advances instead of filling their own pockets or defending one group of the society.

The same thing counts for us little Belgium...

EXAMPLE:

Belgium is as most know a small country between The Netherlands, France, Germany and the Northern Sea.

We are with about 10,5 million souls (roughly as much as NY city)

AND WE HAVE 6 governments counting a total of 58 secretaries-of-states/ministers

WE HAVE: 1 "premier"

5 !!! minister-presidents

DOZENS of vice-minister presidents and vice-premiers

OH... and we have a KING as well

The Netherlands, who are with about 5 million more, have 16 secr./ministers (last time I heard maybe Capt. Greenhair can correct me if needed) They have 1 premier and a Queen.

And yes, our Belgian "exellencies" have about the same pay as their Dutch counterparts...

NO ONE, EXCEPT PERHAPS SOME TEACHERS AND POLITICIANS, KNOW THEIR NAMES BY HARD, since no single week passes at least one get fired, quits or is replaced somehow...

Needlessly to say our "government(s)" do not work...and that is sadly one of the mayor reasons our financial system has collapsed the last few days.

Today, for the 2nd day in a row, markets have risen so it seems we are recovering.

Boy, now Im going to stop talking politics, my bloodpressure has risen 4 points already typing this text...

[Captain Green Hair]

You're right though, the dollar, though not as healthy, will recover. I think it was Ron Paul who said the bailout of the banks by the government is a TERRIBLE idea, and that things should just be left the heck alone so house and other prices go back down to a realistic price point...

please no, that will mean many people will go bankrupt...including me.

It would be great if prizes leveled for the coming years, but i must emphasise we can not go back as this would cause people to stay in their current home, giving starters less chance.

The dollar can only be saved by Russia and China, and the question is if they are willing to give out more loans to the US, whilst the US propably can't repay them...

If the US is smart (wich i doubt) they can sell the hubble telescope they can't fix and propably some other projects as well to generate funds and help them selves...

It sucks the taxpayers have to pay to fix the problem, but if they don't things propably get worse fast, causing more inflation...

[Jones]

Obviously if we have less discretionary cash, we'll be able to buy less Lego.

But the financial crisis could effect prices and supply, as well. There have already been several indicators (and reports in the mainstream US press) that consumer spending is plummeting and retailers are starting to panic that this holiday season will be a nasty one.

So we could see tons of sales and especially ridiculous black Friday deals this year because retailers are panicking.

Just one possible upside ...

[brickzone]

Lego seems to be one of the few things selling well this Christmas.

Had a hard time getting Duplo Thomas the Tank Engine for my nephew. Sold out in local toy stores, sold out on amazon (yes amazon is overpriced usually, but they price in £ so it is currently cheap *even* with shipping to Ireland). Got only 20 buy it now listings from all over Europe for "duplo" and "thomas" search.

Art and Hobby stocked a pile of Lego, and again, seems to be the main thing selling in the shop. Tesco Lego section has been going down steadily, indeed it looked ransacked at one stage before being restocked. Argos - well, I don't know how they are doing. They've had a number of sales, though Irish buyers may see little point in buying locally when they can wait till they are next in Northern Ireland and buy in £ sterling with even better sales (e.g. half price instead of 25% off).

Meanwhile clothes stores are not waiting for January for the sales. Indeed some are already having "closing down" sales. I for one am not buying any clothes before January - indeed if the prices are not low enough for me, I shall wait till February.

I will still be buying Lego in the new year, but I'll be picky and I'll not rush it - I'll get one or two "must have" exclusives from S@H, and then see if I can get the rest over time on sale or priced in £ sterling (maybe take a shopping trip up North again in the new year).

[hollisbrick]

Well to tell you the truth me and my family are have just REALLY started to get affected, my dad is getting less work so that means less money, more in debt . I think the price of lego will go up because the mines in Aus (and probably other places) have gone bankrupt. One of the reasons why we're goin broke So the oil will be comming in less so they brick prices will go up

Can't believe that the world is getting destroyed by plastic and paper