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Collectible Minifigures Series 1 (8683): Rarity Factor


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#1 Fugazi

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Posted 12 March 2010 - 03:19 PM

Less than 3 months to go before the first wave of collectible minifigs officially hits the market, and already some lucky chaps have been able to get their hands on a few of the minifigs! I'm sure more will appear soon, before the official launch date. This far, it has been predicted that among the 16 minifigs some will be rarer than others, but as far as I know there are no official details from TLC. My two main questions are:

Which minifigs will be rarer, and by what factor?

Will the content of every box (of 60 minifigs) be the same?

In order to answer those questions, in the event there is no official information from Lego, I suggest we start this thread to keep tabs on the minifigs that we buy. Please post here the number of collectible minifigs of each type that you have acquired, if and only if they have been bought randomly. This is important, please don't post what you have acquired from Bricklink, trades, or freebies given out at toy shows (the latter are possibly not randomly distributed). And if you feel the bags for the cheerleader's pom-poms, that's not random either!  :wink:

Especially helpful would be total inventories of full boxes, if you have bought any.

Moreover, please keep the general minifig discussion to the appropriate topic, this thread is devoted only to the rarity of the minifigs.

So here's the list of the 16 minifigs from Series 1, and I have given myself the task to keep this post updated with the figures you send in.

1. Indian
2. Cheerleader
3. Caveman
4. Clown
5. Zombie
6. Skateboarder
7. Robot
8. Crash Test Dummy
9. Magician
10. Wrestler
11. Nurse
12. Ninja
13. Spaceman
14. Robin Hood
15. Diver
16. Cowboy

Edited by Fugazi, 12 March 2010 - 03:55 PM.

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#2 cagri

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Posted 12 March 2010 - 03:27 PM

TLG did give lots of information about the figures, I don't even have anything to ask about any more :) Your ambassadors should have carried the message? Here's what Steve Witt said about your question:

Quote

Each box has a set amount of figures in it.  There's no 60 figures total in a box and there's no fewer than 3 of any figure in the box.  the packing of the cases will not be random, its just a mystery which one you happen to be grabbing out of the case.

So there are won't be any rare figures. They will all be available at the (almost) same rate.

#3 Joe H

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Posted 12 March 2010 - 03:30 PM

So, it seems the "rarity" will come from the possible increased demand for certain figures, not from what TLG produces.

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#4 Fugazi

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Posted 12 March 2010 - 03:40 PM

View Postcagri, on Mar 12 2010, 03:27 PM, said:

TLG did give lots of information about the figures, I don't even have anything to ask about any more :) Your ambassadors should have carried the message? Here's what Steve Witt said about your question:

So there are won't be any rare figures. They will all be available at the (almost) same rate.
Well that's interesting, I missed that bit of information! This probably means there will be 3 of some, and 4 of most minifigs in each box. Indeed, the rarity factor is quite irrelevant then. It's good news actually, I hated the idea of having major discrepancies in the odds. Thanks for the info, and just forget this whole topic!  :thumbup:
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#5 CopMike

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Posted 12 March 2010 - 03:42 PM

Like cagri said, TLG has given the information about the randomness & rareness.
As for your picture of the badges with minifigs, please be aware that the numbers doesn´t match the leaflet that comes with the actual minifigs. See below:
Posted Image vs.  Posted Image

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#6 Fugazi

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Posted 12 March 2010 - 03:51 PM

View PostCopMike, on Mar 12 2010, 03:42 PM, said:

Like cagri said, TLG has given the information about the randomness & rareness.
As for your picture of the badges with minifigs, please be aware that the numbers doesn´t match the leaflet that comes with the actual minifigs. See below:
I stand corrected! Indeed, the badges had the minifigs in alphabetical order, while the leaflet has them in... random order? I will correct my list to reflect the official leaflet list, for the sake of it.
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#7 Athos

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Posted 12 March 2010 - 05:31 PM

View PostFugazi, on Mar 12 2010, 04:19 PM, said:

And if you feel the bags for the cheerleader's pom-poms, that's not random either!  :wink:

And it might get you sued for sexual harassment...  :grin:

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#8 escortmad79

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Posted 12 March 2010 - 08:02 PM

Copmike managed to get hold of a diver:

Posted Image
Different bag design to the one posted on the Polish site (Lugpol) a while back, but it comes with a different item number, here's hoping they will all have different numbers then as I first thought to make it easy to find the ones wanted:

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The Polish site had a forestman in their bag

Edited by escortmad79, 12 March 2010 - 08:03 PM.

A Lego dog ate my sig!

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#9 Tyrant

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Posted 12 March 2010 - 08:28 PM

View Postcagri, on Mar 12 2010, 10:27 AM, said:

TLG did give lots of information about the figures, I don't even have anything to ask about any more :) Your ambassadors should have carried the message? Here's what Steve Witt said about your question:



So there are won't be any rare figures. They will all be available at the (almost) same rate.
Some would still be rarer than others (though not by much). 3 x 16 is 48, which still leaves 12 slots. So, it's possible that there will be 4 copies of 12 of the figures and 3 copies of the remaining 4. Or, there could be 5 copies of 6 of them and 3 copies of the remaining 10. Or some other combination. So, in the grand scheme of things, there will be some figures that are produced at either a 3:4 or 3:5 ratio which will make them rarer. The real rarity will come from increased demand of one figure over another. The slightly lower production run (assuming that the soought after figures are the ones with the lower production run) will likely have an effect on the price on the secondary market, but it's anyone's guess how much it will impact it.
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#10 Edmond Dantes

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Posted 12 March 2010 - 09:11 PM

View PostTyrant, on Mar 12 2010, 02:28 PM, said:

Some would still be rarer than others (though not by much). 3 x 16 is 48, which still leaves 12 slots. So, it's possible that there will be 4 copies of 12 of the figures and 3 copies of the remaining 4. Or, there could be 5 copies of 6 of them and 3 copies of the remaining 10. Or some other combination. So, in the grand scheme of things, there will be some figures that are produced at either a 3:4 or 3:5 ratio which will make them rarer. The real rarity will come from increased demand of one figure over another. The slightly lower production run (assuming that the soought after figures are the ones with the lower production run) will likely have an effect on the price on the secondary market, but it's anyone's guess how much it will impact it.

Actually, I would bet this is probably incorrect.  It is true to state that there might possibly be five or six of a few and only the minimum three of the rest, (or four of 12 and three of four for a total of 60, or any other combination), but spread over the entire production, numbers probably will be equal.  IE, If you take 16 boxes and there are three each of 15 different minifigs and 15 of the last one (the most drastic variance possible) in each box, the rarity would be equal assuming the 15 of one in each box is a different fig each time.  IE, out of 30*16=480 minifigs, you'd have ((3*15)+15=60) of each.  Which is obvious if you think about it.

Of course, that is the most extreme example and probably would be very rare.  It's more likely you'd have a max of 5 or 6 of each one, with a minimum of three of each, but then the same would be true if you took 15 other cases and compared.  The entire population of each fig would average out to be equal.

I hope I explained that sufficiently.

#11 Blondie-Wan

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Posted 12 March 2010 - 09:54 PM

View PostEdmond Dantes, on Mar 12 2010, 04:11 PM, said:

Actually, I would bet this is probably incorrect.  It is true to state that there might possibly be five or six of a few and only the minimum three of the rest, (or four of 12 and three of four for a total of 60, or any other combination), but spread over the entire production, numbers probably will be equal.  IE, If you take 16 boxes and there are three each of 15 different minifigs and 15 of the last one (the most drastic variance possible) in each box, the rarity would be equal assuming the 15 of one in each box is a different fig each time.  IE, out of 30*16=480 minifigs, you'd have ((3*15)+15=60) of each.  Which is obvious if you think about it.

Of course, that is the most extreme example and probably would be very rare.  It's more likely you'd have a max of 5 or 6 of each one, with a minimum of three of each, but then the same would be true if you took 15 other cases and compared.  The entire population of each fig would average out to be equal.

I hope I explained that sufficiently.

Indeed, that's the sort of thing I was thinking. That said, IIRC someone did officially confirm that some would be more or less common than others, but my memory's hardly infallible; can anyone confirm this with evidence?

View PostTyrant, on Mar 12 2010, 03:28 PM, said:

The real rarity will come from increased demand of one figure over another. The slightly lower production run (assuming that the soought after figures are the ones with the lower production run) will likely have an effect on the price on the secondary market, but it's anyone's guess how much it will impact it.

I do think this is the case as well, but we should also remember that different people will not only want different minifigs, but will want them in different quantities, which should also impact demand. Whether it has the effect of evening demand out or making the differential demand levels even more lopsided is hard to say without polling data or something like that, though.

For example, from all I've read on the forums here, the diver is one of the less exciting ones for most people - there are already a lot of diver minifigures, after all, even if the specific diver here has a distinctive look with a unique print and slightly different molds for the accessories and so on. Let's imagine, then, that the number of people specifically seeking the diver is fairly low - one out of every five people, say (I have no idea what the actual figure might be; I'm just making stuff up. I want at least one of each minifig, myself, and I know many others do as well, but anyway...). However, the diver is something that, for those who do want it, many will want more than one, to make a team out of them - so if those who do want it each want around five of them on average, then for every five buyers / collectors there's a demand for a total of twenty-five divers. On the other hand, we might say that three or four people out of every five want the clown, but most of them will be satisfied with just one or two clowns, so that for every five collectors there might typically be a total demand for just five or six clowns. In this hypothetical scenario, there would therefore be a lot more overall demand for divers than clowns, even though more individual people would want clowns than divers.



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