Faefrost

Modulars are D2C. Since they are only really sold through channels Lego has direct control over they do not appear in retailer catalogs and early lists. Unless stuff like art assets leak Lego can keep their names and descriptions undisclosed almost until the moment they release. Lately we have been seeing reveal to release windows of anywhere from 3-6 weeks for D2C stuff. (I think we had about 15 days on the Mixer before it hit VIP sales.) not seeing a Modular on this list does not mean anything. We would not expect to see it listed there.

I vote we all army build them and set them laying siege to Helms Deep. The true face of evil! Based on the set names? I'm gonna go with "Keebler"

They have said pretty close to exactly that. I wish I could find the quote. It was from a Q&A session at one of the North American gatherings. I forget if it was LotR specific but they basically said each license contract is different. And each defines things like parts per minifig. Amount of build required. And any number of other details that surround things like battle packs.

Because the license did not permit them to make the sets that way. Every license is different, and they explicitly lay out certain types of things. Such as ratios of Minifigs to build. Or minimum build, etc. someone explained early on at a con Q&A that the LotR license had higher build per figure requirements, hence they could not do SW type Battlepacks. It's a default cut and paste CS reply. They know less than we do.

Of course we may be barking up the wrong tree. Joss may be playing us. Technically he talks about something heartbreaking, and seems to imply death. But based on a few rumors I think he is being very very specific in how he says it. Major possible rumor based spoilers (and what is possibly a full list of upcoming movie names

Erik Selvig is in AoU. He's a character we have seen almost as much as Coulson now.

You mean like these? http://brickset.com/sets/60032-1/Arctic-Snowmobile http://brickset.com/sets/60041-1/Crook-Pursuit http://brickset.com/sets/60000-1/Fire-Motorcycle http://brickset.com/sets/60006-1/Police-ATV http://brickset.com/sets/60011-1/Surfer-Rescue http://brickset.com/sets/31013-1/Red-Thunder http://brickset.com/sets/31014-1/Power-Digger http://brickset.com/sets/31015-1/Emerald-Express http://brickset.com/sets/41031-1/Andrea-s-Mountain-Hut http://brickset.com/sets/41030-1/Olivia-s-Ice-Cream-Bike http://brickset.com/sets/41029-1/Stephanie-s-New-Born-Lamb http://brickset.com/sets/41028-1/Emma-s-Lifeguard-Post http://brickset.com/sets/41027-1/Mia-s-Lemonade-Stand http://brickset.com/sets/70123-1/Lion-Legend-Beast http://brickset.com/sets/70124-1/Eagle-Legend-Beast http://brickset.com/sets/70125-1/Gorilla-Legend-Beast http://brickset.com/sets/70126-1/Crocodile-Legend-Beast http://brickset.com/sets/70127-1/Wolf-Legend-Beast http://brickset.com/sets/75028-1/Clone-Turbo-Tank http://brickset.com/sets/75029-1/AAT http://brickset.com/sets/75030-1/Millennium-Falcon http://brickset.com/sets/75031-1/TIE-Interceptor http://brickset.com/sets/75032-1/X-Wing-Fighter http://brickset.com/sets/75033-1/Star-Destroyer These are just the ones currently on the shelves that would be considered "impulse" sets. Boxed sets at the `$5-$9.99 price point. This does not include Polybags such as Mixels, CMF's regular polybags, etc. Plus lets not forget Bionacle is coming back.

Todays Telegraph seems to be exploring the sudden rash of Lego thefts and the surging price of Lego in the aftermarket. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/11053507/Thieves-target-Lego-sets-as-value-soars.html Not bad.

We already got our large D2C close out set for LotR. Orthanc. I doubt we will get another because of timing and that third Hobbit film. I can't see Lego extending the license once the last movie is done. That extra movie would have pushed all of the retail stuff much closer to the original end of license than they normally go with a licensed line. Remember with licenses it reflects how long the stuff can be on store shelves. They stop making new stuff when they reach the point where all they have left is the products expected shelf life. Licensed retail sets seem to have about 1 year of expected retail life span (2 for larger ones). D2C sets seem to mainly have a 2 year life cycle. I think we are well inside of 2 years remaining on Lego's Middle Earth licenses and are probably getting pretty close to the 1 year left mark. They will not put a big new D2C set out because they likely do not have enough time left to give it a full sales life cycle. And before anyone screams that this was poor planning on Lego's part. This comes down on the constantly changing schedules, goal posts and hard dates from New Line and Peter Jackson. There is a reason why every other toy maker basically told New Line and PeeJ to go Brick themselves after TUJ. The constantly evolving vision and scale of the project was not conducive to working with outside merchandise licensing partners. My suspicion (pure speculation on my part) is that the Middle Earth stuff is a 5 year license. We know from what others have seen and said, that it was in effect in early 2011. (Remember the license is not the shelf life of the product. It's when they start official work.) so the likely end point is probably Dec 31, 2015. Which means the last sets would be hitting the retail shelves around Dec 2014. As much as I would wish it otherwise I cannot see any clear or legitimate business reason that would cause them to extend the license further. Maybe if the license was dirt cheap, and was selling well? But I don't think any WB license is cheap. Which brings up one word of warning regarding the last Hobbit wave, especially Smaug. Do not wait too long for steep clearance price drops. This set will be more like the last HP Hogworts castle. It will EOL before the price really drops. The actual production numbers will probably be a little lower for this wave, with no chance for a second production run. There may be a brief clearence sell off at S@H and Lego stores right at the end. But the wave will most likely vanish overnight. You might gamble and get a good deal. But if these are must have sets for you, you might not want to wait.

Some bad news. For the most part D2C is just as forbidden from new unique tooling as Ideas. The only exception they ever made for that was the Large Train Wheels (and maybe the UCS X Wing canopy although they have been using that in retail now.) the problem is the size of production run. Ideas sets are made in runs of 10-20,000. D2C a bit more but not too much. A big D2C set maybe 50,000 to 100,000 initial run? Maybe a little more for Star Wars. Regular retail sets will easily hit production runs of 10x that. Up to 1 million + pieces. Only regular retail sets can absorb and amortize the costs of new tooling. So even if we were to get an Ideas Minas Tirith or a D2C one, without another full retail wave the best we could see would be new printings on existing parts.

You could probably mod GE into a museum. Or turn TH into some sort of a University building?

That is gorgeous!

When it comes to The Rock, it is kinda safe to be both at the same time. he is one of those guilty pleasure actors. Yeah he is a cheesy over the top ex wrestler often doing standard Schwarznegeresque fare, but he does it well, and he is kinda fun to watch. I find I have several of his movies on my "guilty pleasure" list that will be watched whenever they pop up. His Scorpion King is what the Conan remake should have been. he has a good sense of humor and is never afraid to make fun of himself. As far as Shazam? I am not sure what to make of the casting. If he is the main role of Shazam it probably indicates that they are going a lot more towards a lighter campier approach. I can't see him working well as a serious Shazam. It could be good, but it leaves open the potential for a "Tooth Fairy Super Hero movie". BUT He is also near perfect for the role of Black Adam, Shazam's greatest foe. And He can be an awesome villain. Plus in truth Black Adam is a much juicier and more nuanced character. Shazam (Captain Marvel) himself? His other main villain has described him in the comics as "Captain Whitebread" for the past 70+ years. There really is not much there.

Oh I'm sorry. 6 figures and a molded animal with two new parts. On a 10,000 piece production run. You are absolutely correct I am in error. That would not be a $45 set. That would be well in excess of $65 for something that would be about the size and content of Uruk Hai Army.

Lego molds are extremely high precision. They are the hardest steel. They are designed for high temperature high pressure ABS plastic. And the connectivity required of the pieces is to the point of aircraft engineering. Even a hairpiece. It has to stick firmly to the head and not come off until you want it to, but then release the head cleanly and easily without having to dig the head out. It is a world of difference from the cheaper low precision tooling used for things like board game pieces. Or the lower temperature and pressure molds used for styrene, such as for model kits (or aftermarket Lego addons like Brickarms) The estimates I have heard set the absolute cheapest tooling at around $80,000 USD. And that is for stuff with minimal connectivity. Something like the painters paintbrush that only has to be grasped by the hand. The Gummy type parts might be a cheaper molding, but they are for extremely short runs. The soft tooling does not last long. The full range of tooling goes from around $80,000 up to just under $500,000 that last time I heard anything really credible on it. Actual construction parts tend to be the high end. Detailed minifig parts tend to be the mid range. The CMF's use a radically different business model. For actual regular box sets the cost of a new part can't be more than 5% or so of the sets retail price (excepting certain huge Big Figs like Smaug). So even with a cheap $80,000 mold, at 10,000 pieces you are still looking at $8 onto the cost of a battlepack. That blows the consumer value curve and Lego would never make that. Whereas because of the extreme high margins on the CMF's, plus the low associated costs The cost of a new part to them can run as high as 50% of the retail price. The new part is considered the value of the set. Plus CMF's have very low transport, display and production costs. A 1' cube of retail shelf space can return more profit than just about anything else in Lego's line. This makes the mold financing much easier. And that is the other thing about why we get some things and not others. Notice the Hobbit has more new parts than LotR. This goes back to why they are 2 separate themes. Every theme is assigned an estimated value. what they expect to make with it. It factors in externals like tie ins and publicity, past performance, etc. all sorts of stuff. And it is on the basis of these predictions that a line is granted financing. And the financing pays for the tooling. How much financing the line or theme gets depends on what it is. But things that count heavily towards it are licences, past performance, and contemporaneous movies being released. Hobbit is worth more financing because of the movies. When 2 movies went to 3 Hobbit gained financing while LotR stayed flat or decreased slightly. and this financing for theme specific materials cannot be passed from theme to theme. (well except "general use parts" like swords and the Eagle molds)

Evangeline Lily (sp?) sent out an instagram of how she will look in the Ant -Man movie. http://media.aintitcool.com/media/uploads/2014/merrick/screen_shot_2014-08-21_at_8.55.33_am_large.png (sorry too large to post here) She looks dead on perfect for the Wasp.

Sigh! Yeah you might be able to get 10,000 pre orders for a "battle pack". The problem is for a single new mold you would need somewhere around 500,000. That's why ideas sets can't do new parts. That's why D2C sets do not do new parts (only exception was the train wheels). A new mold costs around $200,000 usd. With your 10,000 pre orders that means the new mold is $20 per set before you put a single piece of plastic in. I'm gonna guess, just based on the level of bitching that you all gave Uruk Hai Army and Mirkwood Elves that the bulk of you would not be interested in a $45 4 figure battle pack. And that is LotR's huge problem. It sells comfortably within a niche. Probably even profitably to a point. But it doesn't hit the huge numbers wanted for and by the big box retail distribution. And there are not enough niche collectors to make up for this. Lego loves multi set buyers. But they can't plan for them. They are not a predictable market. They are great to have, but in trying to appeal to them they end up with sets the regular retail customers don't want. Because most of their customers want variety and named characters. Castle and LotR are not the same thing and they do not compete in Lego's eyes. The Kings Castle and Helms Deep were released in well differentiated lines a year apart, and were fully distinct, from packaging to target age to where they were placed on store shelves. (Yes Lego gives shelving guidance for their product. )

Some images have been leaked. Bionacle returns in 2015.

Winter Soldier just hit digital distribution yesterday and will be out on disk next week. It's absolutely a must watch for the Marvel fan. It is about as different from GotG as you can get. A much darker, more serious, more real world grounded tone. But wonderfully written and filmed. So much so that you will never know what is coming next. Also noteworthy about Winter Soldier is how much it mostly down played CGI and digital effects, instead going more for classic stunts and wire work, just with digital clean up. It makes it look so much better than most of the more CGI heavy fantasies. Although on a fast hider home screen the spots where they did use CGI seem to stand out that much more. Case in point, the ship in the beginning of the movie.

I don't think they plan on bringing Hawkeye and Mockingbird together in the MCU. If they were they probably would have gone a different route than Adrienne Palicki. I'm not saying Ms. Palicki is a bad actress per se. Heck all I know her from are the leaked clips of that horrible Wonder Woman show that the network execs ordered burned when they saw the pilot. But the safe bet would be putting her up against Jeremy Renner and Robert Downey Jr. And such would come off looking January Jones in X-Men First Class.

I think my local Lego store was kind of puzzled today. I stopped in their on my way back from a job site this afternoon. Mid afternoon on a Monday. The store has about 10 people shopping. No kids. All adult men. All very obviously AFOL's. I think the store manager was having a very very good day. I spent over $100 and I think I was the lowest purchase in the store. Every one of them was buying top end sets.

The Reb Brown Cap has to be in a set where he's stealing a car. Now that's something I would buy!

You never know. The Rebels scenes we have seen have a lot of reused TCW CGI vehicle models in them. Heck if Ezra's Speederbike is the one we saw in Rebels Pilot clips then it is the same bike Asohka used a few times in TCW. Most notably in the Brother/Sister force weirdness story arc. I don't think they are "retconing" the Special Editions out. Just giving an original theatrical release version. My gut suspicion on the T-16 is we are getting it in part because the vehicle design will probably show up at some point again. Either in Rebels or Ep VII. Which gives it good cross play potential. Both projects seem to be favoring the old barely touched on designs. Plus it could give us some long neglected characters. Aunt Beru, Biggs, Luke's other mangy hippy friends from that deleted scene. (That never got Special Editioned back in amazingly). Maybe one or two Tusken Raiders? Maybe a small piece of the Lar's homestead like the entrance (with and without black skeleton). It fits nicely between the Sandcrawler and the Cantina.

But the police state may finally be breaking down. Look we are getting a Demolition set and a Firestarter set. Maybe the lemonheads are finally standing up to their oppressive police overlords. VIVA LE REVOLUTION! /sigh I can dream, can't I? I mean they did give us a Riot Squad to crack Football/Soccer Hooligan skulls with that one time?

Is it just me or does the characterization of the pink Mando chick let seem to be bordering more than a tad on psycho?