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jdubbs

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Everything posted by jdubbs

  1. jdubbs
    111 pages of discussion about HP may seem like a lot, but there are 208 pages of discussion on LotR, and that clearly didn't sell well. But I agree that HP has a different kind of appeal than LotR, especially to LEGO's target demographic. I have to believe that HP sets will sell better than LotR did. (And who knows... with Amazon's forthcoming LotR series, we could even see LEGO resurrect that line as well).
  2. jdubbs
    Star Wars is overdone partly because of when it was introduced and the degree to which LEGO parts and building techniques have evolved and improved since then. Early HP sets were likewise simplistic but there have been multi-year gaps between the waves... and even then, there have been several versions of Hogwarts, etc. I think between the 8 HP movies and the 5 FB movies, LEGO could easily do two waves a year for the next 4-5 years, but whether it could keep going beyond that would really will depend on a) how much further LEGO advances between now and then and b) what plans JK Rowling has for the franchise beyond FB. I am hopeful the approach LEGO (seems to be) taking with this relaunch of HP — focusing on only a few books/movies at a time, in chronological order — means that they are mapping out the sets in a long-range plan that will avoid rehashes of these sets in a few years time.
  3. jdubbs
    The hope is that this wave will be followed by another next year that focuses on the next few movies/books (since this wave seems primarily to focus on books 1+2, with a dash of 3 thrown in). I think if the CMF line sticks to the same formula, then that's a good indication we'd get another wave or two of it as well. But that would probably be 6 months after this wave, or even a year depending on how aggressive they want to be with it. In an ideal world the HP line would become evergreen, but that's unlikely given there is a finite amount of subject matter to base sets around (even counting the 4 forthcoming FB movies). I could see it getting stretched out further than that. There's enough in 4 to cover an entire wave, with all of the challenges, two additional schools, etc. There's also all the FB movies to slot in with the HP sets.
  4. jdubbs
    Normally, official set photos would not be released until a few weeks before the sets are available on shelves. But unofficial photos (often grainy, small, or blurry) typically leak a few months before the release date. D2C sets rarely leak more than a day or two before the official announcement. The fact that LEGO released photos of the HP Great Hall and the FB Grindelwald Escape sets so far in advance is atypical. The Great Hall photos probably came out when they did (at NY Toy Fair) to generate buzz among retailers about the HP line being relaunched, so that they would see the improved quality of the sets (versus the last time HP sets were released) and thus order in sufficient quantity. The Grindelwald Escape photos capitalized on the release of the movie trailer. If additional set photos are released early, they will likely be tied to other promotions (like a second trailer). But I would not expect all of them to be released early, since LEGO will want to save some (or all) of the remaining sets for the actual launch/relaunch of the line.
  5. jdubbs
    Because it's still pretty early for August-December set photos to be leaking, especially since they're not yet being shown to retailers en masse, which is often where the leaks originate. And LEGO is clearly trying to time release of official HP set photos to capitalize on buzz for trailers, control the story, and generate anticipation to ensure a successful relaunch of the line. They would not want photos/news of the HP CMF series to get muddled with the just-released Series 18 Birthday CMF line, for instance.
  6. jdubbs
    I believe the set descriptions were emailed to Rebelscum and one or two other sites anonymously. And at least some of the info in those descriptions appears to be wrong, since the set numbers for the "V-Wing Torrent" and the Resistance Transport are supposedly being used for summer Solo sets... which is partly why everyone concluded the descriptions were bogus (aside from them sounding too good to be true).
  7. jdubbs
    http://www.rebelscum.com/story/front/LEGO_Summer_2018_List_Additions_178296.asp
  8. jdubbs
    Yes, that is also against the rules.
  9. jdubbs
    We're not halfway through the year. We're 3 months and 12 days through the year. Still plenty of time for more promotional offers... but don't expect more than 1 per quarter.
  10. jdubbs
    A polybag is always a possibility, as is another Crait location-based set. But my guess is we will get either a Raddus or a Resistance Transport of some kind eventually, even though the one described earlier this year was obviously fake (bearing in mind the adage that even a broken clock is right twice a day).
  11. jdubbs
    From the first page of the 2018 SW News page: Front part and one wagon (probably from the train). No rails, just (t)rain cars.
  12. jdubbs
    Target sells various Amazon products (Fire, Echo, Dot, etc.) some of which actually do facilitate shopping from Amazon... So I have a hard time believing they would object to selling sets LEGO licensed from an Amazon-produced show. Walmart does not sell Amazon's products, but it still seems like a stretch to me that they would successfully object... Walmart isn't (yet!) in the content-creation/delivery business, after all.
  13. jdubbs
    It's one of the August sets.
  14. jdubbs
    I think we see more multi-structure modulars lately because they give the impression you're getting more buildings for your money. Detective's Office and Assembly Square look like you're getting 2 or 3 buildings versus 1 with Parisian Restaurant, Palace Cinema, etc. (Granted, Assembly Square does cost 50% more so it's not a fair comparison.) Even Downtown Diner, which is essentially one building, gives the impression that it's two because of the streamline moderne fascia set against the underlyingy brick and mortar building. The multi-part modulars also provide more opportunity for plot/story since there are more settings to work within.
  15. jdubbs
    I too see a glimmer of hope that this new series will encourage LEGO to try again with a LotR line. The budget and 5-season commitment are definitely promising. I think the real question, though, is how and whether LEGO's license would extend to the new show, since it was theoretically negotiated with New Line, not Amazon, and whether Amazon's deal allows them to participate in merchandising profits.
  16. jdubbs
    Looking at all these pictures (as well as other photos from later movies), the thing that jumps out at me is that if you remove the Great Hall and the adjoining tower, what you're left with doesn't look much like Hogwarts at all... it just looks like a generic castle. I think this is the strongest argument to be made that a UCS-style Hogwarts would include the Great Hall — either a duplicate of the standalone set or a different/larger version.
  17. jdubbs
    They're $20 a piece (in the US, at least...). And will be $16 on sale within a month or two of release. Granted, I'll have little use for the minifigs, but the thestrals and carriage will come in very handy.
  18. jdubbs
    Narrowing the focus for the first wave of sets to years 1-2 does give LEGO a natural path to continue the line in the years to come. It's on all of us to support the sets that do come out to help ensure we ever see a second wave! They could theoretically do a second wave of years 1-2 even, before moving on to 3, 4, etc. Plenty more to be mined from the Columbus movies... I'll be buying at least five of the Grindlewald's Escape set, for what it's worth. 2-3 will get repurposed as carriages at Hogwarts, and 2-3 will get mod'ed to form a more movie-accurate version of Grindlewald's carriage.
  19. jdubbs
    I just meant, a handful of characters with 2 variations (likely Harry/Ron/Hermione) and the rest unique. I doubt they would do more than 1 Voldemort.
  20. jdubbs
    There were also so many Batman costume variations that people would have complained if the CMF didn't have at least a few of them. (Though, 5 is a bit excessive). I think they must have been planning two CMF series from the get-go, so they had room to spread out the secondary characters and still give us multiple Batmans. TLNM CMF is probably a better comparison for HP. 2 Lloyds, 3 Garmadons, everyone else was unique.
  21. jdubbs
    With 22 minifigs in the CMF, you are probably both right. I would expect one "hero" set of Harry/Ron/Hermione in either their most iconic street clothes or in their Hogwarts uniforms, and another "quirky" set of more unique variants like Feline Hermione. CMF figs are typically deluxe compared to figs included in regular sets, so I would expect to see arm/leg printing, dual molding, and unique accessories to differentiate the "hero" figs from the system set equivalents. Because money. That way they can do a post/video this week showing off the blurred-out shot, followed by another post/video next week showing the clear photo. 2x ad revenue when you turn one story into two.
  22. jdubbs
    Unfortunately no. Remember that the justification for this "evidence" is the UCS Death Star re-release with a Falcon silhouette on the box, followed by the UCS Falcon a year later. The Snowspeeder actually came in between those sets, so those intent to believe the Star Destroyer is coming will say this fits the same pattern.
  23. jdubbs
    Assuming the rumors of a $500+ D2C Hogwarts are true, I think it will most likely be a self-contained, all-inclusive model, and not dependent on (but still compatible with) any smaller retail sets like the Great Hall. The main reason (aside from the Great Hall being the most iconic/recognizable part of the castle) being that the sales lifespan for D2C sets is typically 2-3 years minimum (and sometimes much longer), whereas licensed retail sets are rarely if ever sold longer than 2 years. If Hogwarts didn't include the Great Hall, demand for it would drop off dramatically once the Great Hall retires, since you'd no longer be able to complete the model. My guess is that LEGO approaches HP like they do Star Wars: smaller System Scale sets can coexist with larger UCS sets, as was the case with 75105 Millennium Falcon ($150) and 75192 UCS Millennium Falcon ($800). In which case we'd see a larger-scale Great Hall and adjoining tower in the D2C Hogwarts set. Kids will ask for the $500+ Hogwarts set but settle for the $90 Great Hall. AFOL completists will end up buying both since the minifig selection will likely be different.
  24. jdubbs
    The Black VIP card was offered with UCS Falcon purchases made in 2017. It is no longer offered with new purchases, however many who bought the Falcon in late 2017 are still waiting on their cards. The Falcon was briefly available during the most recent 2x VIP points promotion in the EU, but double points is probably the best deal you will get on it for at least a year, unless a third-party retailer decides to put it on sale (which almost never happens with the UCS/D2C sets).
  25. jdubbs
    Please stop reading into my comments or putting words in my mouth. I am not saying whether it's right or wrong; nor did I say there was a "problem". LEGO raises prices every few years; we all know this. I was simply responding to a statement that it was the same price as the last X-Wing, which it appears not to be.
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