CMF Mafia - Day 3 - The Mermaid's Song

[Mencot]

I stand corrected, my bad. That gives some more credibility to the witch's claim. Which, in turn, is countereffected by pretty much everything she's been saying. In her case, I think we're witnessing another bout of button pushing here. Witchy business and I'm not sure I like it. Combined with all her random shooting in all directions from the off today, that makes her one of the prime suspects to me.

Okay (not ok-ey) my shooting in every direction, I haven´t even got started yet. And I don´t need to go further because my scum sensor got stuck on you and your buddy Peter.

You have something to say about your (you, lacey and Peter) strange and similar posts yesterday and why you two wanted to test the investigator claim so much (just one strange thing).

You two have absolutely something going on and it is not up to any good, it stinks in my opinion.

[Kristel]

I think they should've been too concerned that he was being protected.

I'm surprised they targeted Derek, as I had assumed he was being protected. Even if it was only a faith healer's protection (and so had the potential to not be effective), it would seem to make more sense to target someone that was less likely to be protected.

I find this highly suspicious.

Helen's comment on Mikattta's ego/alter-ego (mis)match are something I've also been thinking about. It doesn't make much sense that you'd have the exact same ego AND alter-ego, otherwise why would we need alter-egos anyway?!

Bleeb was described as the "Benevolent Alien Overlord" and his alter ego was the Alien. Or did I completely miss something?

Either way, I think there are better reasons to suspect Mikatta than this one. He is one that I feel has changed his approach / demeanor over the course of two and a bit days so far.

On an entirely different note, what are the chances that two Scum purposely claimed the same alter ego in order for one to gain favor with the Town?

A possibility, but small chance I suspect. It might make sense if both are under serious scrutiny.

Only two kills tonight and one the first night. Does that mean we can assume no SK?

[Mencot]

Either way, I think there are better reasons to suspect Mikatta than this one. He is one that I feel has changed his approach / demeanor over the course of two and a bit days so far.

If the way you are laying doesn´t make any progress in find and helping the town out, one has to change the way of play, right?

I have taken a more aggresive approach to find the scum and hopefuly it will work and help out the town.

If not then I hope my possible death would help out in the way of smallen out the range of possible scums.

[Hinckley]

Has everyone posted yet? I don't see anybody cursed...

[Captain Nemo]

I'm posting. I am a bit surprised about Derek, since I would have think he would have been protected. At least we got one council, even though we lost Derek and Bleeb; who was an iffy lynch but had a good possibility of being scum. And on the plus side at least we know we still have our vig, and for their first kill they get a council.

On an entirely different note, what are the chances that two Scum purposely claimed the same alter ego in order for one to gain favor with the Town?

I don't think think this is likely--because I don't know why the scum would make two claims like that to Derek and then kill him off before he sets their plan in motion. It would work if Derek told everyone right away (As opposed to just saying two people claimed the same thing), and we tested it by a lynch; but if Derek never says anything in public, they risk him working with the vig to take them out. I just don't see this as a possibility when they'd kill the person whose supposed to tell everyone. All it does is potentally risk their scum status by Derek telling others in private.

Thinking about this now, we did have a few people, if I remember correctly, who had not yet (Or perhaps did not at all), send in their alter-egos to Derek. There were also those two people who claimed old dead monsters as their alter-egos. Maybe Derek was killed for being the investigator, but also for now knowing too much about the egos. Perhaps the scum could not risk giving him the time to dig deeper into these findings?

[MetroiD]

I have taken a more aggresive approach to find the scum and hopefuly it will work and help out the town.

In what way has your new approach been helping so far? I mean, I see why you'd think your previous contributions have not been very useful, but trying to throw everyone off as you are right now is much more useful to the scumsters than to the Monsters.

Your 'findings' that I've been in touch with Peter and Helen are something I've already publicly stated before. And the same goes for Derek as well. I've also given my motives on why I believe there's reason to follow Peter's suspicions regarding Kelly. As to copying Helen... you shoot, you miss. The least you could have done is consider my voting, which you should have, bearing in mind how you've been reading up on previous Day threads. The fact that you seem to be trying to get people off randomly and yet are leaving stuff out when summing up your suspicions on them makes you look the most suspicious. Also, weirdly enough, you didn't vote on either occasion. Lacey didn't vote on Day One either. Coincidence? Nice plan? Trying not to draw too much attention? Fair enough, the same could be said about me, but then again I gave my reasons about voting against Sally on Day One pretty clearly (on numerous occasions) and then refrained from voting against Bleeb due to the fact that I was in no way convinced he was scum. In fact, if I'd had the time (busy hairdressing!), I would have followed Peter's vote and voted against Kristel.

In short - you have not voted on either occasion so far. You've just been throwing around fluff. And now all of a sudden you're trying to judge other people, claiming you're changing your approach when in fact you're still throwing around fluff... Care to elaborate?

[Piratedave84]

SNIP

About yesterday, i was cut of (again, being too late to comment) and my suspensions about Peter.

I will go through yesterdays comments and then get back.

*Not Suspensions

"suspicions about Peter"

Unintelligible wall of text SNIPPED

This was some of the ones (wasn´t so easy to copy them here), didn´t look at day 1 yet but will check it out also

And I answered to your comment in the next comment!

Ofcourse it is when One: I got suspicious of Peter in the end of the day when I look through the days comments and Two: I was sleeping in the end of the day when many of you others were up. hey Witches are night persons not like those goody goody council persons.

"Are you both the character of the witch and the alter ego of the witch?"

Yes it is.

SNIP

And Melinda is just copying, take a look at some of her comments yesterday and you will find out.

Melinda and Peter do you have something?

If you are/were so suspicious of me, why did you not vote for me in your last post?

Why do you not now put together an accusation instead of copying selected, out of context, posts?

SNIP

If not then I hope my possible death would help out in the way of smallen out the range of possible scums.

Yes, by elliminating one!

For the record and in case you don't remember here is your last post which is also the very first time you mention my name; if you were suspicious of me, you sure made it haard for us to tell.

SNIP

Look above

I agree with Peter that everybody should contribute and share their thoughts on whats going on.

But this Peter guy really creeps me out, I will take an coffeepotion and will comeback and share some thoughts!

NOOO to late again

[Hinckley]

So who was Derek going to investigate/ was his lead? Apparantly people know. Or Melinda is just copying Helen, possibility. What is the reason for NOT revealling that particular information?

All in due time. If you can't think of a reason for not revealing it you are either ridiculously stubborn or Scum. Or both.

There were also those two people who claimed old dead monsters as their alter-egos.

There are three.

Also, weirdly enough, you didn't vote on either occasion.

Tickles has not voted yet either.

Let's not forget we have this voting tally to analyze as well:

I'm on mobile and the typing is crazy, so here's a basic vote tally

Derek Polanes (DarthPotato) - 8 (Hinckley, Scubacarrot, CallMePie, Cecilie, Kristel, Peanuts, Bob, KingOfTheZempk)

*Honk honk!* Ladies and gentlemen! For my my next act, I shall keep 10 plates spinning whilst I vote!

*spins 10 plates*

Vote: Derek Polanes (DarthPotato)

Tada! *bows to rapturous applause*

Since no one else has come forward with a non-monster role, there seems to be no doubt Derek is either a Council member or a neutral. Out of curiosity Derek, what is your alter-ego?

Sorry for being late to the party, I stumbled on a American tourist group and ate them all ... Been in a food coma since.

Looks like the lynch choice is easy Vote: Derek Polanes (DarthPotato).

Jeffrey's 'defense' (used very broadly here) of Derek is also highly suspicious; there is no reason for someone to step in and suggest and alternative to a pretty straight forward lynch on day one unless said person's affiliation is know and the only way for that to happen at this point is that both person are scum.

Not that she suggested we reveal alter egos, but that she backtracked so swiftly. I think Sally either:

-Doesn't want to reveal having a non-monster alter ego;

-Doesn't want to accidentally claim the same monster as someone else.

Case 2 comes out of Case 1, and in both cases she's scum or a neutral.

People had been pointing fingers at Sally earlier in the day; I want to keep her in mind. She is by no means a better lynch than Derek. Scummy claim - best lynch:

Vote: Derek Polanes (DarthPotato)

We definitely need to test our monster vs non-monster identities and since it appears we have an outlier already, nothing to do but go after it.

Vote: Derek Polanes (darth potato)[\b]

Not having much luck voting since I'm stuck on my phone out of town.

"POFF"

Aaahww whaat a busy day for me and also whaaaw what a busy day here or at least interesting for a day one, one WHAHAHAhaawhhahahahaha..

Oh Derek, oh Derek did you really screw up after all, it was a joke when I replied to Sally that "lets see if someone screws up this time" you should known better because you knew about the last incident!

So this is the best lead of the day to go on and this happening on day one it is the best to go on.

So I will also Vote: Derek Polanes (DarthPotato)

And then

So true but then you continue with this replying to Helen:

First everything suspicious should be jumped on and questioned to some grade and without defending anyone this is what Helen did.

Second, I never brought up the Alter egos, this is actually the first comment I mention "alter egos" in. Maybe Sally was role playing to some grade but I think she had something else in mind first and she changed it when it wasn´t welcomed by followed commenters.

Third that you are jumping on Helen and also me and trying to steer away suspicion (maybe) from Derek, Sally or yourself, maybe I am longshooting her but if Derek turns up a council member(scum) I will be watching you carefuly tomorrow. So try laying that you nymph.

This is a place where it is actually easy to lie but if we gonna do it then it should be when we get to know each other more and know that we can trust eachother. But not never, here in the daythread because then the scum, could as someone already commented, could just wait it out and counterclaim or lie and choose form the remaining monsters on the list.

While I appreciate your input Bleep, I really would have liked to see Derek reveal his role before you gave him the out of "well, maybe it's a evil non-monster. Is this the case?" Its just like a hit on someone. You don't advertise what your going to do so the target can exit through the back while you wait out front. If he's smart enough to exit out the back, fine, he escaped for now, but you don't have to lead him to it.

As for Sally, I find her defense believable. When she mentioned identity cards, I think she was first just looking for something to burn. Pretty risky if she was scum to try and bring them out, especially considering what happened in the first CMF mafia. Even if she didn't know about it, I'm pretty sure someone on the scum team would have given them a heads up. And then the fact that she changed her mind is equally believable to me. If she didn't realize that the characters could correspond to roles, then it's perfectly reasonable for her to change her mind when she realized.

Oh, and although it's a little late now,

Vote: Derek Polanes (DarthPotato)

It's a mess but the tally itself was wrong and the bold is all weird because the late Lacey has slash dyslexia.

[Piratedave84]

Tickles has not voted yet either.

Tickles hasn't done shit yet point final (at all)

To substanciate the above statement, here are Tickle's day 1 posts:

Have you got any whiny wine?

*rimshot*

Thank you, thank you, I'll be here all day! *Honk honk!*

...

Also, are you aware that you have a turban pin stuck in your ear? You might want to get that checked out...

*Honk honk!* Ladies and gentlemen! For my my next act, I shall keep 10 plates spinning whilst I vote!

*spins 10 plates*

Vote: Derek Polanes (DarthPotato)

Tada! *bows to rapturous applause*

Since no one else has come forward with a non-monster role, there seems to be no doubt Derek is either a Council member or a neutral. Out of curiosity Derek, what is your alter-ego?

So what is your alter ego Derek? It definitely isn't a figure that's even slightly monstrous?

*Somersaults back into the room*

Unvote: Derek Polanes (DarthPotato)

Are you saying we should lynch someone who's claimed cop?

What? Why would anyone claim anything to you this early on? You've done nothing so far that suggests you're a monster. To trust someone who's unconfirmed this early on sounds completely bonkers! *honk honk!*

To be honest, the fact that Derek was the only person with a non-monster alter-ego was the main reason I voted for him. Derek was very confident in revealing that he didn't have a monster alter-ego, which struck me as a townie thing to do, and I was fully expecting someone else to back up his assertion.

His cop roleclaim makes me a lot more wary of voting for him though. I suppose it's possible that the powerful PRs get stranger alter-egos, so that they are more vulnerable to suspicion.

It seems like you're acting on the assumption that the scum would deliberately sabotage their own game just so that they can say, "well, scum would never do that!" instead of, you know, actually doing something that makes sense and will keep them alive.

Why would Derek put himself in that position in the first place? There is nothing a council member had to gain from coming out and claiming a non-monster role. Isn't it more likely that a townie genuinely thought that most people didn't have a monster alter-ego than a scum, for whatever reason, blabbing that they had a non-monster role?

Yes, that's why he would've roleclaimed instead of rolling over and dying. Do you really think Derek had any chance of surviving the lynch before he roleclaimed? *honk honk!*

Have you made any progress with this?

Presumably you think they're scum as well as Derek? Because the whole idea that Derek is scum seems to rest on the premise that all monsters have monster role. If this person is a townie too, that means that Derek did not slip up, and that there are in fact non-monster monsters. *honk honk!*

If the person you're talking to in private is scum however, I'd still be inclined to believe Derek is telling the truth. If Derek really did make a slip up like you said, surely his teammates wouldn't also put their necks on the line like that to protect him? It's too risky a move.

Spinning many plates at once is harder than it looks, you know. *honk honk!*

Personally, I'd be more confident in lynching one of the Derek bandwagoners. Caitie is one that sticks out to me - she has had very little to say, turned up and got her vote in early, and hasn't had anything to say about the changing situation since.

But if we really have to test this theory that all monsters must have monster alter-egos , then I'd be a lot happier lynching the faith healer than our potential cop, even if the other faith healer does turn up. I'd much rather lose a weak protector (who, if scum, is under no obligation to actually protect a promised target) than an investigator.

Why do you keep claiming that the bandwagon against Derek is Helen's fault? Clarissa had as much to do with it as Helen. In your other post, it almost seemed as if you were setting things up for a Helen lynch tomorrow if Derek turned out to be town:

*Rides in on unicycle and performs several figure eights around the room*

I don't understand why people are so eager to risk losing our investigator to pursue evidence that isn't very damning at all. The case against Derek seems to boil down three things:

- The fact that he claimed a non-monster role. This was done under no duress and is now backed up by a private claim (which as I mentioned before, seems to make it unlikely that Derek is scum)

- The fact that he took too long to reveal his alter-ego. Derek has explained his rationale behind this, and it seems plausible enough to me. Certainly not grounds for a lynch by itself. Why would he need to wait around and confer with his team in order to come up with one of the 150 or so different non-monster minifigures anyway? Couldn't he have easily come up with one himself?

- The fact that he claimed cop too easily. Even though he already had 14 votes on him and just revealing his alter-ego would have done nothing to change anyone's mind.

Really? Huh. I could have sworn you had been online since Derek made his reveal. I must be going crazy. *honk honk!*

Checking back again, it seems Carl, Kingsley, Lacey and Mikatta have all been around since Derek roleclaimed. It would be nice to hear your thoughts on this. At the moment, it feels as if some of you are testing the waters, seeing if it's safe to leave your votes on Derek or if you're going to have to get another townie lynched instead.

I just find it odd that you seem to be implying that Helen is responsible for the votes against Derek, even though several others had a hand in it too. To me, it came across as you planting the seeds for suspicion against her should Derek turn out to be a townie tomorrow.

An thus ended Day 1 without Tickle casting a valid vote. I see a lot of fluff, zero direct accusation, a lot of summarizing and repeating

Day 2's "contributions":

Seeing as Caitie received a letter that said: "the Council sends their regards", it seems pretty likely that the Council were the ones who killed Caitie. *honk honk!*

Oh, I've been beaten to the punch. *pies self in the face*

I would be ok with everyone claiming to Derek. I feel like the real cop would have exposed him at this point if he wasn't telling the truth. Some may think that would be reckless of the cop, but an investigator for a scum isn't such a bad deal - especially if it also prevents other PRs from trusting the wrong person. *honk honk*

I'm not sure why the scum targeting their own with a curse would be outside the realm of possibility. If the council do have a cursing ability, they wouldn't use it solely on townies.

If we are to believe that night actions are associated with our alter-egos, then the witch does seem the most likely to have a curse ability. Though I guess a mummy could have a curse too...

So you've sent Derek your alter ego just now? Why the wait?

I think it's safe to say that there will be scum amongst the list Derek has provided. The council will likely want to keep their identities a secret, as it is possible that they can slip up if they do. We know that at least one council member will have to lie about their alter ego. And if the theory that non-monster roles are PRs, then the council members need to be extra careful about claiming.

Yeah ... still no vote here.

[Scubacarrot]

All in due time. If you can't think of a reason for not revealing it you are either ridiculously stubborn or Scum. Or both.

I can think of a reason. I'll send the reason in private.

[Mencot]

SNIP

For the record and in case you don't remember here is your last post which is also the very first time you mention my name; if you were suspicious of me, you sure made it haard for us to tell.

Ofcourse i could had made the whole post back in the morning like this:

FLUFF

ALL FLUFF, ALL DAY LONG

"hang out and agree with my scumbuddies Melinda and Lacey"

More fluff

Wants to vote out and counterclaim Derek and again agreeing with Melinda that this is a good thing

Then change it to lets maybe vote for Kelly

More fluff

That´s about it from you in a "nutshell"

So my questions for you Peter and Melinda if you didn´t find them yet: why do you and Melinda agree on so many grounds (and also with scum Lacey) and what really were the reasons when you went for Kelly?

[Piratedave84]

Ofcourse i could had made the whole post back in the morning like this:

That´s about it from you in a "nutshell"

So my questions for you Peter and Melinda if you didn´t find them yet: why do you and Melinda agree on so many grounds (and also with scum Lacey) and what really were the reasons when you went for Kelly?

You are hilarious; my posts, explanations, justifications and votes are all based on facts and are well thought out or at least laid out in a way people can actually understand; unlike someone else

Substanciate your accusation if you want me to defend myslef.

Me and Melinda are talking in private and agree on some points; Can you point me to the part where I or she copied the other? I can't find it

[Peanuts]

Has everyone posted yet? I don't see anybody cursed...

"I know what you're going to ask me Harry, but... I don't remember who cursed me." (Katie Bell, Hary Potter and the Half-Blood Prince)

[jimmynick]

Anyway...I'd like to draw attention to some of the things Jeffrey here has said. Several of them pop out to me as suspicious.

Accurate, but contradictory to what he says later:

He makes assumptions based on last game, then later suggest it's wrong to make assumptions based on last game. And then later:

He says it's still in the air??

You must realize that I don't post in a vacuum and information changes as time goes on. At the start of the game, there were (or I had) two assumptions:

1. Monsters have monstrous alter egos and Council have townie alter egos;
   
2. A player's alter ego is related to that person's night action.
   

Derek claimed to have a non-monster alter ego. By Assumption 1, he is a council person. That's when I made the first post you object to. Next, two people claiming to have non-monster alter egos (and also to be faith healers) claimed to Helen. I believe those claims because the first faith healer said there was another, and Helen called for a claim, which she got.

By that point, Assumption 1 is dead and wrong. So we can't suppose that Assumption 2 is correct after all. But Derek insisted that night actions were related to alter egos (his in particular). That's when I made the second post you object to.

Here he's pretty happy to follow the bandwagon and have information tossed around publicly. Doesn't seem really cautious.

If Kelly wants us to believe something, she'd jolly well better put some evidence behind her claim.

This was from the tail end of Day One. I don't think he so much as mentioned Sally again throughout all of Day Two.

Sally stopped blipping on my radar. There was just that one thing I thought was suspicious, and no-one was very interested in following up on it.

And I answered to your comment in the next comment!

No, not really. You aren't helping your cause like this.

[Hinckley]

"I know what you're going to ask me Harry, but... I don't remember who cursed me." (Katie Bell, Hary Potter and the Half-Blood Prince)

You can only post in quotes from the Harry Potter series?? That... That, in my opinion, shouldn't be allowed.

Especially if you can only quote Katie Bell.

It's Jeffrey's, actually. Evil Knight and Vanilla according to him.

There are multiple things that strike me about this. The first one that it's obvious an already used figure from the last game (the only one, it looks like, like that this game). That would mean it would be less likely someone would have this, making it easier to claim. And there are still several monster figures that I've not heard about that could have been used instead of the Evil Knight. So, why the Evil Knight? To me, it seems like a safe figure to claim if you want to lie.

I have a Cyclops claim. Anyone want to counter that?

So how far fetched do you all think it is that a figure that died in the last game is someone's figure this game? Because to me it seems fairly unlikely, especially because it's the only one like that.

A figure that died in the last game is someone's figure this game. And all other figures this game are new and were not in the last one.

Another thing I noticed is that it's very likely that the people with a little less monster-y figures have power roles, so if you do have a power role, definitely don't go claiming your alter ego in public even if it doesn't directly connect to your role.

Also note that I still don't have alter egos from Dragonishki, Sally, and Lacey, so we can't completely look at this until I hear their roles.

Is it possible that the Scum felt emboldened by nobody picking up on the Cyclops claim and the last couple of people to claim chose Monsters from the previous game? Then, only at that point, was the discrepancy noticed?

We never asked Derek (and by we, I mean the faith healers and I) for the information he was receiving about the claims. The point was to let him figure out who to trust and not pressure him. Either way, he told me enough for me to piece almost everything together and a couple of helpful Townies have come to me and now I have all the claims, so Scum you better kill me tonight. Come and get me you wimpy council bitches. Mwaaaaah!

There's one big hitch in any plan going forward with these claims. If the people who claimed monsters that died in the last game aren't Scum and I reveal who they are, then the Scum will pretty much have a road map to the remaining Town power roles.

Also, a very helpful person pointed out in private–I very much believe this person to be a Monster–that anyone voting for Derek on Day One for having a non-monster figure, who has a non-monster figure themselves should be under scrutiny and there is one. But it gets sticky from there too, since this is more of a monstery monster than fortune teller but gives me major pause towards this person who I was inclined to trust. Just throwing out interesting tidbits for everyone.

Don't forget Scum bitches, you have to kill me tonight or you'll definitely lose.

[Piratedave84]

really? no one had had anything to say for the last 3 hours ...

What are everyone's opinions on the theory that previously dead monsters are not used this time around?

[Hinckley]

It is weird that it's gone so quiet.

Considering today's curse and how it's making it impossible for Pamela to communicate easily, either:

1. Pamela was really onto something yesterday.

2. The Scum want us to think Pamela was onto something yesterday.

3. Pamela is Scum and they've cursed one of their own to make that person look Townie.

Before anyone says anything, I said the idea that Kelly brought up yesterday was one of the stupidest (which was an inappropriate word to use, sorry) things I'd heard in Mafia. I was referring to the accusation that I was making it up, not that Scum wouldn't curse one of their own–obviously, as I've just brought up the possibility myself.

[Scubacarrot]

Or, just to be perfectly accurate, there is the possibility that the prankster (trickster, curser, jester whatev's) is someone that has to give out some curses to someone. Why are you so sure that the trickster is scum though? Just because yours was so annoying and the fact that they wanted to maybe shut you up? I'm not convinced about that.

[Hinckley]

Or, just to be perfectly accurate, there is the possibility that the prankster (trickster, curser, jester whatev's) is someone that has to give out some curses to someone. Why are you so sure that the trickster is scum though? Just because yours was so annoying and the fact that they wanted to maybe shut you up? I'm not convinced about that.

What makes you think otherwise? Don't both curses seem to hinder effective communication?

I remember another person who didn't believe the curser was Scum. What was her name again? Oh right...dead Scum.

Ah shit, he said the opposite:

Because everybody these days likes to claim everything to Helen. For good or for bad. It's not her fault, but in Helen's past life, everybody claiming to her probably single handedly sealed the game for the scum team. Something to think about when spouting off to those you can't 100% trust.

Why do you think that the person with the ability to curse is town? Maybe I'm off base, I can't think of a reason why the town would hold that ability.

[Scubacarrot]

Maybe I'm purposefully being counter.

Or cross. Whatever the word is.

[Hinckley]

Devil's advocate? Dick? Obstinate? Argumentative?

[Scubacarrot]

All of the above except obstinate. Maybe you should check your private messages.

[Hinckley]

I have everyone's claims but they all lead to dead ends. There's no clear lynch candidate for today, unfortunately. We need to start discussing things here, people. Being proactive is the only way for us to win this.

[Tamamono]

Considering today's curse and how it's making it impossible for Pamela to communicate easily, either:

1. Pamela was really onto something yesterday.

2. The Scum want us to think Pamela was onto something yesterday.

3. Pamela is Scum and they've cursed one of their own to make that person look Townie.

What if the trickster is the third party and its goal is to cast X number of curses/survive?

[Hinckley]

What if the trickster is the third party and its goal is to cast X number of curses/survive?

What if there's a reverse death miller whose win condition is to be lynched and come back as a purple hippo?