Main Street Mafia 3 - Day Three

[Bob]

Main Street Mafia 3 -- Day Three

Sam (Duvors) was arrested.

...

The night was quiet. Too quiet.

"Sam (Duvors) was a member of the mafia!" the NPC announced.

The town cheered, knowing they were going in the right direction.

"Keep up the good work!"

---

Players (4)

Heather -- Played by Shadows

Jerry -- Played by mostlytechnic

Lily -- Played by Tariq j

Phil -- Played by Classic_Spaceman
 

Dead (2)

Robert -- Played by KotZ (Town)

Sam -- Played by Duvors (Mafia)

 

Rules:
1) You are either Town or Mafia. The town need to eliminate the mafia and the mafia need to outnumber the town. In the hopefully unlikely event of a one to one parity, the mafia will win. There are no third parties.
2) A game day will last 72 hours. You may vote after 24 hours. Even if a majority vote is achieved, the day will not end early. Nights will last at most 48 hours, during which you can send in your night actions. 
     3a) Do not talk about the game outside of the threads.
3) Each day you can vote to lynch a player. Voting is mandatory. It should be done in this fashion: 
                     Vote: Character (Player)
                     Unvote: Character (Player)
    Ensure your vote is in bold so I don't miss it please!
4) The alignment of players who have been lynched, as well as those who may have died during the night, will be revealed at the beginning of the next day. 
5) You may not quote or pretend to quote anything sent to you by the game host via PM. This includes the details of your character and role, as well as any night actions results. Role claims and reporting of results are acceptable, but in your own words only.
6) If you die, you may not post in thread or discuss the game with any players. Any information you had is not allowed to be passed on under any circumstances. 
7) Don't edit your posts, please!
8) Please try to post every day!

[mostlytechnic]

Woo, we got one! 

So now we have some actual data to look at. 

Yesterday he was clearly getting lynched, so he threw a vote on Lily. Time for the regularly scheduled (almost as regularly scheduled as my mail delivery!) WIFOM debate. For those new, that means "wine in front of me," referring to the classic Princess Bride scene with the poisoned wine. Sam knows if Lily is scum or not... would he have voted for her to throw suspicion on her or to protect her? At a simple level, scum wouldn't want to vote for scum. But this was a safe vote, so would he vote for a fellow scum, hoping we'd think he would not vote for scum? Or would he know we'd think it was safe and suspect the person, so he voted for an innocent person? Ack! You can go round and round for days. 

Looking at day 1... He put the first vote of the day on me. It was a logical, normal, "Get this quiet person to talk" vote. Nothing really there and made him look like a good little townie. Next, there were two votes on Phil. Sam could have switched his vote to Phil, but he didn't. He changed it to someone with no votes. That makes me think Phil could be the other scummo. But maybe it was just too early in the day. In that case (Phil is innocent), then I would have to think that Lily is scum since she put a 3rd vote on Phil near the end of the day, trying to finish him off. But no one else was around I guess to join. 

I guess all that wordiness is to say.... my gut read with a little bit of vote analysis is that Heather is a fellow townie with me and either Phil or Lily is the scum. It's just a gut feel from looking at how the other days went. But then I look again at yesterday. Heather and I had voted for Sam. He was in definite danger. Phil put on vote 3, which doesn't feel like something a scum would have done. There was time to try and turn things around or at least split the vote. Lily put an un-needed 4th vote on Sam. THAT does feel like something his partner would do... so when the time comes, I'm going to be voting Lily today unless something else comes up. 

Thoughts from others? 

[Tariq j]

1 hour ago, mostlytechnic said:

Lily put an un-needed 4th vote on Sam. THAT does feel like something his partner would do... so when the time comes, I'm going to be voting Lily today unless something else comes up. 

Voting is mandatory as per the rules. So I had to place a vote on someone and Sam seemed the best choice. Phil seemed slightly on the fence about his vote and could have potentially unvoted - so it wasn’t un-needed. 

1 hour ago, mostlytechnic said:

Yesterday he was clearly getting lynched, so he threw a vote on Lily. Time for the regularly scheduled (almost as regularly scheduled as my mail delivery!) WIFOM debate. For those new, that means "wine in front of me," referring to the classic Princess Bride scene with the poisoned wine. Sam knows if Lily is scum or not... would he have voted for her to throw suspicion on her or to protect her? At a simple level, scum wouldn't want to vote for scum. But this was a safe vote, so would he vote for a fellow scum, hoping we'd think he would not vote for scum? Or would he know we'd think it was safe and suspect the person, so he voted for an innocent person? Ack! You can go round and round for days. 

 

But then on the other hand, maybe he didn’t want to vote for another scum buddy for this exact reason. So that his other scum buddy could come on and say “hey look at who Sam voted for!” So you just go around in circles here.

 

[mostlytechnic]

16 minutes ago, Tariq j said:

Voting is mandatory as per the rules. So I had to place a vote on someone and Sam seemed the best choice. Phil seemed slightly on the fence about his vote and could have potentially unvoted - so it wasn’t un-needed. 

But then on the other hand, maybe he didn’t want to vote for another scum buddy for this exact reason. So that his other scum buddy could come on and say “hey look at who Sam voted for!” So you just go around in circles here.

 

It is mandatory, but it doesn't mean you have to just jump on the bandwagon. Putting a bonus vote onto someone that flips scum is by no means definitive, but it does ping on my scum-dar. 

And to the second part, that's the point of WIFOM - it keeps us going in circles but at some point you just have to make a call. Again, not definitive, but it's about all we have to go on.

 

[Tariq j]

10 hours ago, mostlytechnic said:

It is mandatory, but it doesn't mean you have to just jump on the bandwagon.

Is that not what you and Phil did? I gave my reasons for voting for Sam, the same as everyone else. I would have voted for him earlier but there were several fires that had to be attended to. 

10 hours ago, mostlytechnic said:

And to the second part, that's the point of WIFOM - it keeps us going in circles but at some point you just have to make a call. Again, not definitive, but it's about all we have to go on.

You’re right. My view is that Sam voted for me for this exact reason - so someone would come on here and say “ah look, Sam’s voted for his scum buddy”.

[mostlytechnic]

4 hours ago, Tariq j said:

Is that not what you and Phil did? I gave my reasons for voting for Sam, the same as everyone else. I would have voted for him earlier but there were several fires that had to be attended to. 

Yes, but I was a second vote on Sam, not a 4th. If anything, I created the bandwagon, not jumped on it :) Phil was the 3rd, and I don't see a scummo being the lynching vote on a fellow scum, unless they thought it was sure enough Sam was getting voted out and he wanted to have it as a defense. So yet another WIFOM situation... and that's why I pinged on Phil as also a likely scum, just not as likely in my estimation as you. 

[Shadows]

I can see this going a couple of different ways, could argue for anyone at this point including me, though that would be a really longshot. The only thing we seem to know for certain is that we probably got their killer, which means they have to play the long game and try to get us to do their dirty work, one by one.

At this point, I feel the most secure about Jerry. It would be a little too daring to risk early support of a vote that would kill your partner in a situation with so few people. I will need to give this some thought for time to vote, but I have a good feeling overall.

[Bob]

You may now vote! With 4 players remaining, a majority of 3 is required to lynch!

[mostlytechnic]

2 hours ago, Shadows said:

I can see this going a couple of different ways, could argue for anyone at this point including me, though that would be a really longshot. The only thing we seem to know for certain is that we probably got their killer, which means they have to play the long game and try to get us to do their dirty work, one by one.

Doesn't the scum kill move when the killer is killed? The other scum should get the ability.

It's also possible, given how few people this street has, that the scum only kill every other night or something like that. Whatever happened last night, I'm looking forward to the post-hunt discussion to understand some things!

 

2 hours ago, Shadows said:

I can see this going a couple of different ways, could argue for anyone at this point including me, though that would be a really longshot. The only thing we seem to know for certain is that we probably got their killer, which means they have to play the long game and try to get us to do their dirty work, one by one.

Doesn't the scum kill move when the killer is killed? The other scum should get the ability.

It's also possible, given how few people this street has, that the scum only kill every other night or something like that. Whatever happened last night, I'm looking forward to the post-hunt discussion to understand some things!

And as promised earlier today....

Vote: Lily (Tariq j)

[Tariq j]

Alright, I am the Town Cop. Every night I was allowed to investigate a player and learn their alignment. I investigated Robert on Night 1 and investigated Heather last night. Heather came back as town. So by process of elimination the other scum have to be hidden between Phil and Jerry. Sam seemed pretty determined to give up yesterday, so I think he told Phil to hammer him because he knew he was going to be lynched.

Vote: Phil (Classic_Spaceman)

[mostlytechnic]

I will believe your claim for now, because it matches some things I know. I am a Parity Cop. I can investigate someone every night and learn if they have the same alignment as the person the night before. Night 1 I investigated Sam. At that point I only was told my investigation was successful, not blocked by anyone. Night 2 I investigated Heather. I was told they were of different alignments. That's why I was quick to lynch Sam - learning his alignment after being lynched would tell me Heather's. Since Sam was scum, Heather is town. I therefore know the scum has to either be Lily or Phil.

If we lynch Phil today and both Lily and I are telling the truth, we should win (I can't imagine a 50:50 town:scum mix). If Phil does flip town, then Lily must be lying and we lynch her tomorrow. Yes, I could be the one lying, but I'm not. 

Unvote: Lily (Tariq J)

Vote: Phil (Classic_Spaceman)

[mostlytechnic]

After a bit of thought, I'm going to keep my vote as stated because it is possible that Lily and I are both telling the truth and we'll win with this lynch. However, there is a fair chance that Lily is lying. In that case, we'll know in the morning and can lynch her tomorrow. I'm a bit hesitant to believe that we would have two different cops in such a small scenario. I actually stopped at the MafiaScum.net store, looked through all their micro setups, and only found 1 that had multiple cops. 

Here's how Lily lying could work... this whole section is hypothetical. The scum have a tracker/watcher type role that saw me investigate Heather. Therefore Lily claims to have investigated Heather since they're assuming I know her alignment (they couldn't be sure WHAT role I have, but have to play it safe). She can claim anything about Robert since he was dead night 1, and Lily could be a killer who actually killed Robert, so claiming to have investigated in case someone from town saw her visit him that night. The lack of kill last night would be either because they alternate killing (Lily was night 1 and Sam supposed to be night 2), have limited night kills (only kill every other night or something), or we have some sort of protector. 

[Shadows]

18 hours ago, mostlytechnic said:

Doesn't the scum kill move when the killer is killed? The other scum should get the ability.

It's also possible, given how few people this street has, that the scum only kill every other night or something like that. Whatever happened last night, I'm looking forward to the post-hunt discussion to understand some things!

There is never a guarantee when it comes to how things work in life, but it could also have simply been that the target was protected or the killer blocked.

Town cop is a very sudden and convenient claim, coincidentally clearing the dead guy that we already knew was clear and me, who started a vote against the first dead scum. It also feels overpowered In a situation with so few people. There are so many ways this feels wrong, but it shouldn't matter, as long as we stick to a plan.

There can't be 3 scum, that would be ridiculously unbalanced (yes, it is ironic that 3v3 is unbalanced). I can't imagine conversion for the same reason. The size of this group greatly limits the possibilities.

That means that all we need to do is get one right in the next 2 days, even if they can kill again. For me, that means ...

Vote: Phil (Classic_Spaceman)

If that's wrong, Lily tomorrow. Game over. Unless, you are all scum, in which case Mayor Bob dies. 

On a side note, party cop is a weird role but much more fitting for a group this size. Investigating Sam and then me in that order given the course of those days makes sense as well, which is why I believe it. It is a very reasonable sounding and completely unnecessary lie if it is one. 

[mostlytechnic]

So, we've got our 3 votes and now it's been so much silence. 

[Bob]

Vote Count: 
Phil (Classic_Spaceman) - 3 (Tariq j, mostlytechnic, Shadows)
Not Voting - 1 (Classic_Spaceman) 

With 3 votes, Phil (Classic_Spaceman) has been lynched! Day Three is now over, please get your night actions in!

On 2/5/2024 at 5:26 AM, Tariq j said:

Vote: Phil (Classic_Spaceman)

On 2/5/2024 at 6:13 AM, mostlytechnic said:

Vote: Phil (Classic_Spaceman)

On 2/5/2024 at 2:11 PM, Shadows said:

Vote: Phil (Classic_Spaceman)