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Everything posted by Dannylonglegs
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Alright. I've decided. Shadell is lying. Our win condition would be different if there was a cult. I can't believe I've been so dense! God, Shadell, you really are as Magnificent a bastard as I've always known you to be. Vote: Shadell (Shadows) Bloody Hell! I guess that makes her an OP Godfather? Whatever. I'm done.
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You're acting obstinately close-minded about this. I know how good a liar Shadell is. She's an excellent liar. She's the bet scum I've had the pleasure of scumming with. I don't know what we'll do in the likely situation that Shadell clears Oscar as Town. We'd probably investigate Oscar again, or Shadell, which would be a waste. It matters allot. If we can rule out certain roles, then we can decide whether the boy who cried wolf is a wolf hunter or not. OK? If we can establish that he can't be A or B or C out of ABC and D, then we can firmly establish he is D. What could he be in addition to godfather? If you can think of something that makes sense, then we can form a plan, but until there is a well thought out possible alternative to Shadell's claim, then I have to take it into consideration when I think of for whom I'll vote. I'll agree that it's more likley then not that Shadell's lying if anything but his claim makes sense. But who's ever heard of a kill-proof, investigation-proof Godfather with a role that prevents him from being blocked? What is his role?
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Alright look. What do we know about Shadell? She is immune to blocks. We know that empirically as two separate sides agree on that fact, including the jailkeeper, who we know is town as he or she block/protected Walter the previous night. She only successfully protected Shadell last night, meaning Shadell can indeed ignore blocks. This likely means Shadell can avoid other potentially negative Town actions, which could potentially encompass Hiding, and potentially vig-killing. What does she claim that cannot be confirmed (or could be with allot of effort and wasted action)? She claims to be bullet proof once. (this is testable, but not in a good way.) She claims to be capable of investigating an individual to determine whether said individual is allied with a cult or not. She claims she investigated the hider who was hiding behind another individual She claims to have investigated that individual the following night upon learning that said individual claimed day-investigator and investigated Matilda (not Shadell) and got a Scum result. These are her claims. Now, let's analyze. What can she be? She cannot be a Cult Leader. Even if the actual "Cult Leader Hunter" was already killed, therefore enabling Shadell to claim without fear of being taken down by the actual Hunter (how would she know he was dead? The only killings have been the Lynches and those of the day-killer), I refuse to believe that this world is so unfair as to allow for an Unblockable, Unkillable, Previously Unheard of, Converting Cult Leader. Look at that long line of adjectives and ask yourself if that's possible? If there's a Cult Leader, the it sure as hell isn't Unblockable. I'd bet this game on it. I'd be very annoyed if the game was so unbalanced that we had one of those. Therefore, she is not a Cult Leader. She is not the vig, a conventional investigator, a protector, or any other conventional Town role. It's kind of obvious why she's not one of these. She is not the scum killer. Did I mention how she wasn't blocked last night? Well, apparently, she wasn't successfully blocked last night. And there wasn't a kill last night. Ergo, she's not the scum killer. She's not a Culty mook. I don't think they have actions or are unblockable. Having established what she is not, let's think of what she could be. She could be a Cultist Hunter. You could take her role claim as legitimate. She could be the Scum Blocker, Scum Role-Investigator, Scum Framer or another member if the scum that is for some reason unblockable. I doubt he could be the scum investigator if they have one, because then, assuming he's not totally lying about investigating the hider, which he might be, then it would be unfair for the hider not to be able to hide from him. She could be a framer, who framed Matilda, but I'd be surprised and we'll find out tomorrow anyways. And, finally, She could be the Scum Godfather, as always. Obviously she is not afraid to be investigator. That means, she knows she'll show up Town. Godfathers (often, but not always) show up Town under investigation. Furthermore, Godfathers are occasionally bulletproof as well, so that matches up as well. What doesn't match up is the fact that she is unblockable. What role could the Godfather also have that allows for an unblockable action? Role-Investigator could work. But assuming he's not lying about finding the Hider, that would make no sense. Assuming he is lying about investigating the Hider, how'd he figure out it was the hider? Could he be some sort of Scum protector instead of investigator on top of that? How powerful is this hypothetical Godfather? If you think he could be Godfather, then explain how. Having established he is either (and tell me if I'm wrong here) A. a Scum with an unblockable role (can be investigated) B. a Godfather with an unblockable role and a bulletproof vest (Way OP, but at least believable compared to that in a Cult Leader) C. a Cult Hunter with an almost unstoppable but narrowly focused investigation ability. Which is the most likely? I think it's C, but I don't care if you believe me. What do we have to lose by keeping him alive long enough to investigate Oscar? Hypothetical A. A. He's Scum We Lynch him: She dies and pops up Scum! Whoo hoo, we did it! We killed the Manipulative bastard! We let him live today: She does whatever she does with that unblockable action, presumably to Oscar. He investigates Oscar? Oscar's already claimed and stuff. He kills Oscar? Nope. He's not the killer and apparently Oscar's got a vest. He converts Oscar? When we day investigate Oscar tomorrow we'll see what happened and Lynch Shadell or something. B. He's the actual Cult Hunter and his investigation is the only one that can reveal Cult membership We Lynch him: We get overwhelmed by the Cult We let him live today: He investigates Oscar and clears him as the Town Jesus, or investigates Oscar and it kills him because he was the Cult Leader or a Cult Member or something. (I think Cult Mooks would show up under our investigation, so I doubt Oscar is a Mook. I doubt he's a Cultist altogether. Has anyone flavor copped him?) So, given these options, which would you choose?
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Wait, let's just be calm. His action eschews negative Town actions, right? We've seen proof of that, right? Would it be fair for a Cult Leader to be able to bypass all of our defenses to convert? He's claimed Cult-Hunter, right? If he's actually the Cult Leader, then isn't there an actual Cult-Hunter of some kind looking for him? If he's this public and he's lying about being the Cult-Hunter, doesn't that mean he'll be dealt with tonight anyways by his nemesis, probably tonight? If, after he uses his action on you, and you're still around, we can investigate him or you. I honestly doubt Cult members show up as Town and I think this is all very foolish, but I also do not want to be wrong about something this dangerous. I play things safe and listen to logic, and right now, logic is screaming in my ear that he's not the Cult-Leader and that you're Town. I will not take part in any Lynch of Shadell today, and I'll do anything I can to stop it. This is silly. From your actions, you're either overly paranoid, or the Cult Leader, and rightfully paranoid. I personally, think it's the former.
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I'm not running under that assumption, but the mere idea that it could be true in this situation may warrant investigation. I believe you're Town. I would be surprised if our investigations show Town instead of Cult, but I don't think you need to be as worried as you are right now. It would be completely unreasonable for the Cult Leader to be unblockable, and I'd be quite irate in heaven if that were the case, and you needn't fear he's trying to kill you either due to your vest, and if you want extra safety, enlist the protection of the Jail-keeper or the Jack of all Trades.
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I don't have much time to respond, but basically, it can't hurt. If you're not the cult leader then he won't get a result back saying "Cult​." You're more efficient when you're cleared of everything but Godfather (on the basis that we can't know for sure--I strongly doubt it) anyways. That said, whatever the results, we should get Shadell investigated too. You know, so that we're all peachy keen adorable farm animals. Oh, wait, there are people here. Huh.
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Well, I think that Jimmy was blocked by a scum blocker. It'd make no sense for us to have as many blocks as that would give us. I think it's more likely that Oscar or Shadell was targetted by the scum kill. Both seem like priority targets (if Shadell's not scum) and both seem to have some form of protection. As for Oscar being the godfather, I kind of doubt that, as he lead the lynch on Walter yesterday... but not only lead it. He started it too. I think he'd have to be quite the meatshielder to use Walter that early. I don't know if I made this argument before, but the more I think about it, the more Shadell's action makes sense. The Jailkeeper was informed that his block didn't work, right? It'd be overpowered for that to work on a Godfather (and by killing Walter, their previous killer (assumedly) we know that it's not the Godfather that kills), and what would his action even be? Most of the Godfathers I've seen either don't have actions, or have ones that would be blocked (kill, watch) so that doesn't make sense. I'm pretty sure at this point that he's not the Godfather. So why would he be immune to blocks, which he's been proven to be? Obviously he has a really important role that we'd be somewhat defenseless without. It's possible that the Cult-Leader is immune to kills as well. But, I doubt the Cult leader would be immune to blocks, as that would give an unfair advantage to their side, which also benefits from being all but completely unknown. In that respect, I doubt our Day killer is on their side, as a kill and a conversion is also over-powered. The scum never have both, so neither should the Cult.
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Alright, Oscar. Let me preface this by saying, I trust you more than I do Shadell (especially knowing Shadell). You lead a Pro-Town Lynch yesterday and have been apparently investigated twice now, and as recently as earlier today. I've thought over this again, and having heard Shadell's claim, I think you should think things over a little longer. Even if Shadell is scum, we have more to lose if we kill him now then if we try to figure this out with him still alive. The threat off a cult is a bad one. I've never dealt with a cult, but the concept sort of scares me. I wish we'd known about this earlier. That being said, you still doubt Shadell's claim, which is reasonable. I have doubts myself, but I think playing it on the safe side is a better choice. My primary reason for "fearing" Shadell's claim is the timing of it. He claimed to Beeker and Bunsen what he was, right? As early as day 2, right? What scum would act that preemptively? Even as a scum under his control a while back, I didn't get a clear peak at his methods, so I don't know if this is the crazy sort of thing he'd say at such a time, but it is crazy, and it did come very early. Do you think the scum would have a Psychiatrist? Doesn't that sort of think usually default to us or neutral? It would be unbalanced to have two bulletproof town, but his role sounds so different from yours that it doesn't sound like he's bulletproof, but rather something different. I sort of believed it upon first hearing it, and then after rethinking it, thought it was nuts, but now I think I'm more on the side of playing it safe again. At the moment, I think he's either A. what he says he is. B. a bulletproof scum, or C. the cult leader. Either way, we should definitely not Lynch him yet.
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Oh, yes, I do have it wrong. I believe the day investigator a bit more now. If Janice=scum: Day-Investigator=Town, Hider=Town, Scooter= Scum? If Janice=Town (unlikely, but if): Day-Investigator=Scum, Hider=?, Scooter=Scum still? Nope, I was not told at all that I was targeted. That sounds like a total Lie. Lynch all ye Liars. Sure? We could try today and then Lynch her tomorrow if that fails. And if not there's only two; Her and Scooter. Yes, and that's what it seems like. I can't imagine this being the case though. At the very least, it implicates the Day-Investigator There's not one. I'm running on the assumption that both Janice and Scooter are scum. Scooter's less likely but regardless, I can't wrap my head around the convenience of this over powered role... In addition to everything else. That said if it's not a lie, then we're in some seriously deep water. You only know the part of you not being in the cult, and if the Day investigator's on the level, which it appears is the case at this point, then the theory's bunked regardless. Still, if Scooter's Town then there's a cult and we're in hot water. And, we're assuming Scooter's Scum here. Maybe there's another role that Protects? Maybe there's a killer/converter and there was a conversion, which couldn't be you if the investigator, with whom only you have spoken in public, is to be believed. Yes kill/lynch.
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D'awwww. Galen/Beatrice is such a cute couple. ~Insectoid Aristocrat
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Alright, well I've thought the situation over, and I've got some questions, but I think I've drawn some conclusions as well. So, my question is, why are you just finding out about the day-investigator now, Oscar, if he investigated you last night. If I were in that situation, you'd be the first person that I'd contact. Why has it taken all this time for the connection to be made. That I find suspicious. Suspicions in that regard aside, Everything but my gut points to the day-investigator being at-least somewhat in the level. After thinking it through, I agree. This Cult-Leader-Hunter claim is rather odd, and probably scummy. If we Lynch him, and he turns up Town, we're in big trouble. Big. Trouble. If that's the case, Oscar may already be in the cult. That would really suck, and explain A. Why he wants him dead, and B. what that unknown individual was doing to Oscar the previous night, and that Oscar came out with it to counter suspicion. This however is highly unlikely. I am pretty convinced now that Scooter is lying, and so is Janice. I am somewhat honoured that Janice considers me a helpful Townie, however, This would be an easy way to test the Day-investigator's reliability. So, I agree with the proposal; Kill Janice, Lynch Scooter. My predictions and what we can establish: Janice: Scum--Day-Investigator: Town, Might confirm Hider as Town Janice: Town--Day-Investigator: Scum, Hider: Scum? Scooter: Scum--I'm super super happy, Day-Investigator might be Town, Hider, might be Town. Scooter: Town--There's a Cult. Oscar may be part (he may not though) Oooh, I should say: Janice: Scum---Oscar not converted, Day investigator: For' real, Hider: Town
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Heroica RPG - Quest #48: Death's Homecoming
Dannylonglegs replied to Endgame's topic in The Heroica Archive
"Good work Lycan. Grab them. Lycan, Galen, and Johon, you all get potions. Johon, Galen, and Elgar, you all get remedies. Alex, Elgar and I will get tonics. Mmmmh. I feel moonlight through this wall. Toxiprogg, I think you know what to do with this porous wall? Let's get outta here. I suppose the Nurse can stay put. Those eggs might need her. You sure you don't want to stay with her Galen?" Joked Sylph as he prepared to step out into the night. -
I don't have much time right now, but here's what I'm thinking. Well, the jailkeeper seems rather strongly on the level, and if he says he can't confirm that his target, the "Psych", was blocked, then for safety's sake we should leave him today to ensure that we're not overwhelmed by a freaky cult thing. It does seem convenient, but if it's not a lie, then we're screwed it seems. Let's Lynch Janice today and see if we can target someone else for the day-kill.
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Well, he did say quick. Plus, I haven't seen a close-up pic of the fighter in it's rather lame turret pose, so thanks for mentioning it! ~Insectoid Aristocrat