Kit Figsto

Ahh, right I forgot about the Vader/Scout/Probe sets, thanks! Funnily enough, I've actually been working on one because I refuse to spend $300 for the set, doubt I'll ever actually build it physically but it's fun nonetheless. I'm working at a scale somewhere between UCS and system-scale Falcon. It's minifigure compatible, not totally to scale, but the interior works which is most of what I care about.

I think a Ghost/Phantom would sell well regardless this time around, seeing as a sealed copy of the Ghost set goes for like $300+ on BrickLink. Heck, even a complete used copy sells for over twice the original price. And, while I don't own that set, honestly, it seems like it looks good on the exterior but functionally isn't as good as stuff like the Falcon or a Star Destroyer or whatever other large ships they put out. I think they could do a new one with more of an interior (besides just the cockpit/gunner stations) for like $130 and it'd sell really well. Speaking about 2021, do we know yet if there are price points or set numbers for an April wave this year? I know that we got some set numbers extending further into summer with the UCS stuff, and last year we knew the busts/D-0 statue were coming very early (even if initially it was thought to only be two busts), has anything been confirmed on that point, or is it TBD if there will be any spring wave?

I'm wondering if it might be due to a much, much more subdued toy release for this season in general. I know Target stores in the US had some stuff put out near the end of the summer, but it was a mixture of Mandalorian and Galaxy's Edge toys, with a skew mostly towards Galaxy's Edge. Since there was no Force Friday this year, and the show wasn't brand new (they didn't need to hype it up again, people were already really excited for it), I don't even think any brand new Season 2 specific toys came out, whereas we saw Mando, IG-11, and Cara Dune in pretty much all of the S1 advertisements or merchandise. Plus, since there isn't really a fall wave of Star Wars (or any LEGO lines, other than often a lot of D2C stuff), it'd make sense to just hold the set over until the winter wave.

You're probably right, I threw a few of those in there just because they could be done for $15-20 (Rey's Speeder, the Crait Ski probably) where there's not really as much risk associated with releasing it. I do agree though, I feel like it's unlikely that we'd see much in the realm of really large sets from the sequels.

I know jdubbs mentioned that the speeder bike isn't the only Mandalorian set we're getting in 2021, so it's certainly possible that they just didn't give many details to LEGO (or other toy/merchandise companies) yet, like with The Child, either to prevent leaks or they just didn't want any details coming out before the episodes had premiered. I doubt it would be something targeted specifically at LEGO, rather that they didn't want it to leak that will show up in the season. LEGO's pretty tight lipped when it comes to leaks, I almost wonder if the set we know about didn't leak until after the show premiered because the sources inside of LEGO truly were unable to send pictures or anything until now (just speculation on my part, I'm really not sure how exactly these leaks happen), but I could see how in the scramble to get stuff put out, between LEGO, Hasbro, and other companies that make posters or other licensed merch, it probably just increases the chances of stuff getting accidentally leaked early. Plus, no new molds needed for those characters. Ditto, I'm curious to see this as well

I feel like with the sequels, it'd be mostly focusing on the most popular/recognizable stuff. Rey's Speeder, Poe's X-Wing, maybe a Crait ski-speeder, First Order Transporter, Kylo's shuttle perhaps, possibly a Resistance Bomber, FO TIE maybe, that's about it. As far as locations, I can't really see any other than maybe Maz's castle or Ach-To, maybe with some duel stuff (Exegol specifically) if they keep doing those. Stuff like the Quadjumper, Rathtar Escape, Pasaana sets, they seem too specific to really have a lot of demand in the future (and I don't see them suddenly getting a ton of demand later on), and in terms of really large sets, like the sequel Falcon or the various AT-AT variants (forget the exact names), people would rather just buy the OT one I'm pretty sure. It's sort of the same reason that we probably don't get prequel sets like the Ep II speeder chase or a lot of the random Clone Wars vehicles (like the Bounty Hunter gunship, Freeco Speeder, or a Magnaguard starfighter). There certainly is a demand for stuff like that, likely more than some of the more obscure sequels stuff, but I think if given the choice, your average (read: non-hardcore collector) would rather get the more recognizable item. Dang, haven't seen any of that. I'm curious what people are saying

Yeah there's no chance the AAT would be as hard to find as it is if it didn't come with Ahsoka or the clone. The design is so-so but it has two brand new figures of popular characters.

I honesty can't think of any scene/ship that has set potential (from what we've seen so far) that wouldn't include Mando. If we got an ITT, it'd probably be based on the scene from the trailer in S2, which would include him, and the only enemy vehicle that they'd probably do would be Gideon's TIE, which I think would make a ton of sense to include Mando in. I guess if they did a New Republic X-Wing they wouldn't need to include him, but I don't really see them doing that when people would likely rather get a Rebellion/Resistance one with Luke or Poe or Wedge or whoever.

I knew someone would was going to cite the AAT and 501st sets as reasons for more prequel sets, and I wanted to bring up the flip side of that argument. There aren't really any other sets that would sell that well at all. The primary reason the AAT is selling well is because of the figures. I am all but certain people aren't that excited to buy an AAT that looks okay but not incredible, people are primarily getting it for the 332nd and Ahsoka figures. If the figures were like, Anakin, Obi-Wan and two droids, I would bet that set would be sitting on the shelves all year. So next year, if they stuck Ahsoka in a similar set, I highly, highly doubt it sells that well, unless it comes with another exclusive figure. Ditto with the 501st set, they could re-skin that as a 212th or Wolfpack set and it'd probably do well, maybe not as well, but people would still hoard it. After that, there aren't going to be any prequel sets that the demand is so high that it'll fly off the shelves. Most of the highly requested prequel sets are large price point items: Jango Fett's Slave I (you don't need multiples of those), the Geonosis arena (you don't need multiples of those), an AT-TE and a Republic Gunship (which I think would sell well, and I think they should get a re-release, but for whatever reason at those price points I think Lego just sees an AT-AT or a Falcon as more of a sure-seller. We only get one or two sets at a high price point during each wave, and yes, I think they should've made room for those, but it honestly might be better if they wait until now, since an X-Wing was like $80 two years ago. I shudder to think of what an AT-TE or Gunship would've cost at those prices). And when it comes to stuff that has almost direct comparables between the OT/PT, it's sort of the same issue. An ARC-170, Republic Y-Wing, Venator cruiser, etc all have almost exact copies in the OT and ST, I'm not saying that's a bad thing, that's how it was designed. The issue, like I said with the Gunship/AT-Te, is that people aren't going to buy tons and tons of them because they're prohibitively expensive. So if most prequel/CW fans are buying one, maybe two of some of those, there's also going to be a handful of OT fans that aren't buying it because they'd rather an X-Wing, Y-Wing, Star Destroyer, etc. I think that they should make room to replace an X-Wing with an ARC-170 every 4-5 years, but I can understand why they don't. An X-Wing is likely to outsell an ARC-170, and they only have room for one in a wave. I get that there's underrepresentation for some of the background ships/vehicles in the prequels, but realistically, I don't think it would sell that well. Stuff like the Naboo landing craft, Galactic Marine tank, Padme's ship from Episode II and III - they didn't really play a largely significant role in the story. Heck, something like Anakin's podracer or the AT-AP were warming the shelves for basically all of last year at stores around me, and those hadn't seen a release for at least 8-10 years. If something as well-known as one of those models wasn't a sure-fire seller, who's to say that a $120 set that ultimately was even less significant to the film would sell well either? I have no idea about actual sales numbers, obviously, but that's just what I saw anecdotally. Even the OT doesn't really get background vehicles like that, the only real examples were the TIE variants or something like the Imperial V-Wing, but the era in which we were getting those was one where we also were getting tons of Clone Wars and prequel stuff. I guess the Skyhopper, but that's only one set. And lastly, about the Cobb Vanth thing, we got Cara Dune in a Force Friday set last year, which was over two months before she actually appeared. If I remember right, she didn't show up until the 4th episode, which premiered in like December. I agree that she might've been less spoiler-y than Vanth, just because of Vanth's armor, but I think they could've included him if they really wanted. Of course, that's assuming that Lego knew about him, since it appears that they don't always get complete descriptions/concept art for new characters/ships.

Agree, I don't see this figure being much more than $10-15. Ahsoka is $10 on BrickLink and is only available in a $40 set, while Mando is $15, available in a $40 and $120 set. Since this set will be $30 and be an exclusive figure for the time being, that seems about right. The price of The Child is about to go way down, though (currently $10, I'd anticipate that drops closr to $5). Given how popular the Mandalorian has been, I think it's likely that we'll see this figure at least one other time next year, too. If anything, I think that the non-Beskar variant will become more valuable, since there won't really be a reason for them to make it again. Here's an unpopular opinion: I actually think I prefer the look of the non-Beskar variation!

Yeah I saw that too, I was like "wuut" Frankly I kind of doubt it? I mean, this has been the same Mandalorian helmet mold for like 10 years now and I don't really know how they'd improve upon it? They can't really make the cheeks any more pronounced, otherwise the helmet would look too big.

They did the same thing last year, we got one set for Force Friday and a small battle pack in January. This set is arguably better than the AT-ST, because it's a new build, whereas the other one was basically just the Rogue One AT-ST with different colors and the leg design changed slightly. Not saying it wasn't a really good set, because the design is fantastic, but it wasn't anything that new. Don't forget, possibly Leia which could either be Celebration Leia (which almost assuredly would be a new figure since they're not going to re-use a figure from like eight years ago) or the Leia that was previously exclusive to the Tantive IV, which is almost as good as a new figure, since that was a $200, somewhat rare set.

Honestly a bit surprised that the set was based on Ep I. Minifigure selection is really good, getting The Child in a $30 set is fantastic.

That's totally fair and I didn't mean to single out prequel fans since certainly fans of all movies do manage to find issue with sets, whether warranted or not (and believe me, sometimes I totally agree with the complaints, other times I think it's just people complaining for the sake of complaining). I definitely like both the PT and OT and buy sets from both, though I do tend to skew a bit more towards the OT. I do think that there seemed to be a lot of the younger crowd (like 18 and younger) voting on this, since that seems to be the main audience for some of the big LSW youtubers or reddit communities. First off, when I was that age, I wasn't buying UCS stuff because I didn't have money, the most expensive stuff I could afford was like $100-150, and that was maybe once a year at best. If there was a $200-250 set, I could've made it work, but that would've been likely one of the only LEGO purchases I made that entire year. Just from what I've seen being closer to that generation than not and also from lurking in those various comment threads, it really does seem like if this set isn't minifigure-heavy, there will be a decent chunk of people that voted for it that won't buy it.

You'd be surprised... Read either the comments on the voting posts over at Ideas or comments on reddit/youtube/instagram and you've got people expecting literally every single named clone plus like twenty clones. I think a lot of people just didn't get the fact that this set almost assuredly will not include more than, like, five figures (which is already a lot for a UCS set) and are going to be inevitably disappointed when it doesn't. It's sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Prequel fans, in general, tend to be younger and want to army build or get minifigures (see: the Ahsoka set or the 501st set selling out almost exclusively for the figures included). UCS sets tend to be large display models without figures. People complain about no prequel UCS sets, then if this gunship doesn't have a bunch of minifigures, I 100% guarantee that a lot of the crowd championing it (but wanting Rex, Cody, Wolffe, and 15 clones) will absolutely not buy it when it doesn't include those, thus, it sells poorly, and no more prequel UCS sets. I feel like it would've been more plausible to just wait for a re-release of the system scale gunship (I know people don't think Lego likes the prequels, but it's been 7 years, we're going to get one eventually) which could be Clone Wars based and actually include those figures, at likely a much cheaper price (I can't see that costing much more than $140, whereas a UCS is likely at least $200).

I think the problem is that the pricing isn't as conducive. With the Sandcrawler or most of the other UCS ships that are minifigure-compatible (the Slave I, Millenium Falcon, etc), both a normal-scale version of the set and the UCS versions of the set can be used with figures, the normal one is just a scaled-down version. So if you buy an $80 Slave I, it's not totally in scale, but it works with figures because the proportions are good enough. With a Gunship, the issue is that it can't really be scaled up from the normal, system version of the set - which tend to retail for $100-120. That version is already effectively minifigure scale. If they price the UCS Gunship at like $200 or even $250, which most UCS ships tend to be (not saying it can't be lower, but history just suggest that a set that size is difficult to do for cheaper than that), they can't really add in $100 worth of value to it unless they make it substantially bigger. Therefore, you've run into the problem of it not being minifigure scale anymore. I feel like a lot of fans would prefer the set that you described, though. At a certain point I do wonder if they'll run out of these. Like, Cloud City was probably one of the most requested re-releases ever and it only had a 1.5 year shelf life in most regions. The Cantina seems to be selling really well, but it's also the most iconic location in the entire franchise save for the Death Star. I think Yavin, Jabba's Palace, Endor as you mentioned are good ones, maybe Geonosis and the Jedi Temple, but beyond that I struggle to think of a location that I think could actually sell well as a $350 playset. There are dozens that you could make into an MBS set, but those are the only ones that I actually believe would do okay on shelves.

2nd half wishlist for the 2021 year, based on what we've seen so far. I'm guessing if we really are looking at something more akin to 2006-2014 era LSW sets, we'll see fewer locations (it seems like we only really started to get stuff like Yoda/Obi-Wan's hut, the Death Star scenes, the Cantinas, etc within the past 3-4 years, previously if they included location builds they'd be mostly side builds) and primarily vehicles and ships. Also, I'm hoping for battle packs, but I guess that's TBD. Snowtrooper Battle Pack: $14.99. Very similar to the 2009 version, includes a speeder bike, an E-Web or similar mounted gun, and a brick-build probot (very simplistic). Includes 2x Snowtroopers, 1x AT-AT Driver, and 1x Commander (similar to Veers). Sand Skiff Battle Pack: $14.99. Kind of a weird idea and I don't really foresee it happening, but an interesting possibility. Basically a mini-version of the skiff to fit in a battle pack, includes 2x Gamorreans, 1x skiff guard (either Lando or someone dressed like him), and 1x Weequay guard. Rey's Speeder: $16.99. Effectively a re-release of the 2015 version, but it seems to be well-known enough to where it could warrant getting another. Includes Rey, BB-8, and Teedo, plus the giant net of junk that Rey can attach to the sides. Naboo N-1 Starfighter: $39.99. Similar to the 2007 version, maybe includes a vulture droid but that could be a bit much to ask for. Includes a ladder to board the ship, young Anakin, R2-D2, 1x Naboo Security, 2x battle droid. Y-Wing Starfighter: $59.99. Basically an updated version, close to the 2014(?) one (whichever one came with Celebration Leia). Includes Dutch Vander, Evaan Verlaine, an astromech droid, and a Rebel crewman. AT-TE: $89.99. Updated version of the 2013 version. Includes a Genosian cannon, speeder bike, and the tank. Minifigures are Mace Windu, 2x Geonosian Warriors, 2x Clones, 1x AT-TE driver, and 2x Geonosis Battle Droids. Imperial Star Destroyer: $119.99. Similar to the 2005 version, with the escape pod and maybe a mini Tantive IV. The bridge has space for two pilots, and the main superstructure has removable panels to reveal Vader's meditation chamber, a control center (similar to the part where Vader gives the bounty hunters instructions in ESB), and another room, maybe either a generic hallway or a crew quarters. Minifigures are Darth Vader, Admiral Ozzel, 2x Stormtroopers, 2x Death Star Troopers, a Mouse Droid, and Imperial Protocol Droid.

I feel like it could go either way. It seems like the only time that they put multiples of one main character in a single wave, the sets tend to be either very differently priced or a set where the character is pretty necessary (like Luke in both the Final Duel and AT-AT: he's key for both of those scenes). With these ships, they're all in a similar price range and they can do an Imperial Shuttle without necessarily putting in the Tyderium crew - putting in Vader or Palpatine might actually be better in that it gives people more of the main characters now. On the other hand, I don't think any of the system-scale sets this wave include Han, Chewbacca, or C-3PO (pretty sure a Microfighter will have Han), so that would be a good way to get those two lumped in as well, allowing people to get all of the main heroes except Lando in one wave. So I guess we'll have to wait and see. I, for one, am fully on board with these 2006-level minifigure/price ratios! Especially if we're still getting somewhat unique figures like the Death Star Droid and General Dodonna. It's kind of like the Slave I minifigure approach: include the main characters for that scene, plus one or two marginally related but desirable figures too!

Cool. TIE figures seemed to be what was expected after that DS Droid leak, if Jan is indeed included in the X-Wing that's a great move on LEGO's part, and gives us a fig that a lot of people have wanted for a while now.

Good call. That makes a lot more sense than the Yavin base, which was my initial thinking (albeit wishful...). I think if we did get an MBS Yavin, it'd probably be fall of 2022, since they seem to have a 2 year cycle on the MBS stuff. The only other thing I thought of was maybe something similar in style to the 2006 DS II? Honestly, I'm not sure though, part of the appeal of that one was that i thad the unfinished section, if it was DS I, it's basically just a giant ball, and I almost think people would rather have the playset version instead, as it'd be about the same size but have functionality. That was one thing I thought of too, but I had also thought that it was only Luke and R2-D2, so I guess we'll just have to see. The DS re-re-release makes sense too, since that's been kind of a staple and is clearly something that sells well enough, considering he's been on the shelf for almost 13 years now.

Well, I certainly like what happened LAST time you dropped an ANH quote in the thread without any context, so I can only imagine what this means... That was General Dodonna's line if I remember right, but I have no idea what this could be referring to. The spring UCS usually isn't playset-based, and that would seem odd after we just got a $350 MBS Cantina, so I'm definitely intrigued as to what could be coming...

I see, thanks for clearing that up! MBS, if I'm not mistaken, is only used for Star Wars and was basically a new moniker they launched because everyone got angry at them for calling the Assault on Hoth set a UCS set when it was more of a playset. I think going forward it's basically just used for the minifigure-scale location-based "UCS-type" sets, but they're reserving the UCS branding for ships or vehicles only. So, for example, 75222 Betrayal at Cloud City as you mentioned, as well as the new 75290 Mos Eisley Cantina both fall into the "MBS" bucket. I think if you were to go back and retroactively apply that title, you could also add the 2003 Cloud City (technically counts as a UCS according to some sources), the 2008 and 2016 re-release versions of the Death Star, the Ewok Village, and of course the Assault on Hoth, as sets that would all fall into the MBS category.

Is it those key lights? Because I do actually remember seeing a pic of those in like August, I think they were apparently real. I was able to find the protocol droid, looks pretty good! Nothing too crazy, but it's a new figure and hopefully a cheaper way to get a Death Star Droid. Could also probably be used for Zero from The Mandalorian or AP-5 like @Mandalorianknight suggested. If the TIE does have 3 figures as leaks suggested, that makes sense, unless either it's in the Mando set and we haven't seen this droid yet, or maybe in the Imperial Shuttle? The TIE would probably make the most sense to me, as they could include some sort of docking ladder and have the droid as part of the service crew, since I doubt they use a figure slot from the Mandalorian set up on a droid, and I feel like the shuttle lends itself to having more named characters as well (Either a la Imperial Inspection, or with the Tyderium crew).

They don't, but the box image didn't seem to have any Creator branding on it, was my point. Like, the Batmobile/Batwing were just "18+ Batman" in the same way that the UCS A-Wing was just "18+ Star Wars" or whatever. The Bond car, or even the non-movie branded Creator ones didn't include figures, but my point was that this one doesn't seem to be under the Creator line, unless I overlooked something on the box, which is strange since typically non-Creator UCS stuff does include the figures.