jdubbs

Both the promotional and in-person photos of the cockpit glass appear to show a single piece, not two parts joined together.

Some of you guys seem to have taken the news that three sets may have been cancelled — sets which have been omitted from pretty much all informed discussion for weeks now — as a sign the sky is falling. It's not. As they say in Tara: tomorrow is another day. And probably a pretty good one, methinks.

Some sources (might be the same as stonewars', or might be different) did list those sets initially, then subsequently updated them to say they were cancelled. At the time I assumed that one or more of them might end up as a retail store exclusive, so I opted not to mention this all here, as I didn't think people wanted more bad news. But this is one of the reasons I've been pessimistic on all these skipped numbers showing up. I cannot speak to the reasoning listed in the article (Disney wanting to cut back, etc.). It would make sense (I guess) if Disney truly feels the market is oversaturated, but it's the first I've heard of such a thing.

This all depends on when you are referring to and what you mean by “on display”. In the last few years Lego has moved the product that is furthest out (2H of the year) to private viewing rooms and limited access to those who have certain credentials. Photography, etc. prohibited. This is the approach taken at the European toy fairs this year, so it’s likely the same would be true in NY. But the sets coming out in the first half of the year (April) may very well be on full public display, perhaps even with one or two “special” things Lego wants to show off early. They have done this at least once before, when they relaunched the Harry Potter line and showed the Great Hall 5-6 months ahead of its eventual release.

You might very well think that; I couldn't possibly comment. :)

Strange that your post seems have to gone almost completely unnoticed. It's almost as though someone said to him, "Hey Paul. Take that down, stat. That's not supposed to go public for another few days at least."

Would you mind doing the same for 75080 (the 2015 model)? I'd like to compare the two... I've seen so many people complain about it over the years that I'm conditioned to think it's inaccurate, even though I prefer it aesthetically.

This is why I said it was a mistake. At the time the sets were leaking rapid-fire and I assumed (incorrectly) that the remainder would leak within a day or even hours. The longer it takes others to leak this stuff out, the more the speculation feeds on itself. Lesson learned.

The April and Summer waves are "known". I am guessing at least the April wave will be more fully known, by more people, in another week. Beyond that, we've already seen that there is at least one additional set coming in 2020 (the Brickhead two-pack). It's a safe bet there will be a few more 2020 sets long the way, at least in the form of a retail store exclusives. Beyond that, I'm going to step back from commenting on this stuff any further. I can't — while maintaining my sanity — respond to every rumor someone decides to post about a new set number that may to may not be legit, drawn from someone's wishlist, or the product of a feedback loop between EB and Instagram. I can also see now that it was a mistake to drop that hint about another of those guesses being right, because it's set off a firestorm of speculation that I honestly don't need to be the center of. I'd prefer to just let others who actually want the notoriety do the leaking from here on out... (and rest assured, if it gets them more likes and followers, they will).

Not the AAT.

While there may have been 60-odd sets/polys/etc total in 2019, the "35" estimate was just the sets in the 75xxx numbering scheme, which are the sets relevant to your original question. (And, ±35 is pretty close to "almost 40".) If you want an exact count, go to Brickset, count the number of 75xxx sets released in 2019, and that's your answer. Pretty sure it's around 35. :) The complete mainline (listed in the retail catalogs) April and Summer waves are known (to some, not all) at this point. But as I said, there are several numbers skipped that might end up being released one way or another. (Or might stay skipped, as a few do each year.) The quantity and identity of retail store exclusives are still a guessing game, and there is also the chance of another set further down the line being pulled forward, like this brickhead, or Vader's Castle in 2018. Imperial Landing Craft was originally a TRU exclusive that abruptly became a mainline set when TRU folded, so it's by no means typical.

Bear in mind that promotional sets, gifts with purchase, poly bags, etc. are numbered differently from mainline sets. In the 75xxx line, there were something like 35 sets released in 2019, including some oddballs like the Vader bust, several 4+ sets, the three battle action sets, and all the 20th Anniversary sets. 2020 is looking to include about ⅔ ¾ that many at this point, though there are a lot of skipped set numbers which could still be coming as retail store exclusives, maybe another wave, etc. The Mandalorian Brickhead is something like 25 numbers ahead of the highest reported 2020 set number (75291), which is not part of the summer wave of sets and likely a retail store exclusive. From this we can conclude that when this Brickhead set was added to the lineup — which probably occurred back in November 2019 (given The Child was not revealed to license partners before the show began to air) — LEGO had already mapped out 25 sets for 2021 (on top of all the 2020 sets that were already in various stages of production). This might constitute the entire 2021 LEGO Star Wars lineup, or it might be the first two waves plus odds and ends. But it is definitely interesting in that it pretty much confirms just how far out LEGO plans its mainline products... as much as 2 years in advance. This should probably temper expectations that 2021 will see many sets from the Cassian Andor series or Obi-Wan series (neither of which has started filming yet) or even The Mandalorian season 2, which began filming shortly after season 1 aired (I think?)... though sets based on concept artwork would still be possible of course.

I was referring to the AT-AT and the Advent, actually.

The last three summer waves came out in Oct, Aug, and Sep. I believe this one comes out in August but don’t hold me to that.

I believe 91 showed up in Walmart computers, for a time at least. 85 was not shown at European toy fairs or in the retail catalog for 2H 2020. But that doesn’t mean it can’t come out in a later wave, as a retail partner (or LEGO Store) exclusive, etc. I have wondered for some time if some or all of the skipped set numbers were actually Mandalorian sets that were postponed so LEGO could rework them to include a Child minifig. Pure speculation, please don’t treat that as fact or even likely. Looking back at early leaks of set names and numbers from the past few years, “MDP” was used on the Imperial Landing Craft and several of the 20th Anniversary sets in 2019. The landing craft started out as a TRU exclusive before they went belly up, and I vaguely remember reading that Target (I think?) was going to have some 20th exclusives, which never panned out. So it would fit for MDP to apply only to retail exclusives, though a few of them apparently transitioned to wide release.

It does not mean that. Has been used before Disney Plus or Mando existed. It doesn’t. 75317. Fully 25 set numbers after the last identified (possible) 2020 set number. Has been used on non-retail exclusives too unless I’m mistaken.

Jimminy Christmas.

Those were also 5-10 years ago. $70 doesn't go quite as far these days... And the Buzzard is a much bigger/beefier ship than either of those (or should be).

I hear sentiments like this a lot, but as I mentioned I don't think it would work out so well for most of us. Look at how unhappy most adult/teen Mavel/DC collectors are, when they see how few sets they're getting from any given film, and how much the lineup defaults to Quinjets and Batmobiles year after year. Some people seem to think that by paring back, LEGO will focus on "the really good stuff" and we'll have to suffer through fewer rehashes. But the more likely outcome is that LEGO will do exactly what they're doing now: pigeon-hole prequel sets as solely "for kids" and limit them to small builds, recycle the same dozen OT hero vehicles ad nauseam, and ignore pretty much any episodic content (Resistance, Mandalorian, etc.) because years ago, Rebels sets didn't sell. That's not a future I want for LEGO Star Wars.

Everyone wants something different. If you missed out on the AAT or Soulless One last time around, you're stoked to get a second chance at them. If you have them already, or don't like the gray/blue color combo, you're completely underwhelmed. If you're an OT fan, you might be happy you're getting an AT-AT, but you also might be unhappy that you're not getting a properly-designed snowspeeder to go with it. If you're an ST fan, you're happy to get the remaining Knights, but dreading what a $60-70 build of that ship is going to look like. No one wave is gong to entirely please anyone, let alone everyone. I for one don't ever recall promising CW fans a wave they would be happy with. I do recall someone... can't remember who... cautioning people to keep their expectations in check. That doesn't just go for 2020... unless this year is a complete aberration, we're looking at fewer sets in the Star Wars line moving forward, more akin to Marvel/DC, which means the same 20-30 "sure-seller" sets get cycled through over and over, and the unique, lesser-known stuff becomes increasingly rare. I sincerely hope I'm wrong about that. ^^^This. Though I do admit I am losing faith that LEGO understands what sells to AFOLs at this point.

I did clarify this already, perhaps you missed it. I asked why Midlife-Crisis didn't just buy the instructions: first, to save himself the considerable time and effort he was putting into reverse-engineering it; and second, at a point when it looked like he was doing less in the way of redesigning and more in the way of tweaking. Because, if you're just intending to build the MOC and change a few details, yeah I do believe you should compensate the designer for their talent and work, if that's what they ask... it's the "support-your-fellow-moc'er" point. Seeing as Midlife affirmed he is doing much more than just tweaking, I admit the suggestion that he was "stealing" doesn't rightfully apply, and I certainly support his choice to use it as inspiration, whether he buys the instructions or not. As I said, I likely wouldn't buy someone else's instructions either, if I were designing my own version. But on the other hand, if Midlife-Crisis or Jhaelego or some other designer creates a MOC that I would be happy with more or less as-is, and they opt to sell instructions for it, I would also readily pay for those instructions, because I think that's only fair. True, not everyone can afford to buy instructions for every MOC out there. And the instructions for this particular MOC are priced a bit steep... but then, it seems if you're able to afford the several-thousand parts needed to build that MOC, you would probably be able to scratch together enough for the instructions too?

I for one don't understand why people are more than willing to give money to a massive, privately-owned corporation but draw some kind of idealistic line in the sand when it comes to supporting your fellow builder. If giving the designer of a really good MOC $10 or $20 keeps him in the hobby and encourages him/her to create more really good MOCs, I'm all for it. As you point out, it is a hobby. It's also an insanely expensive one, that a huge chunk of people cannot afford to sustain. If some super-talented 15 year old kid wants to help finance that UCS set he's longing for, or if some 20-something living in his parents' basement and working at Ikea wants to eat something other than Swedish meatballs once a week, is there really anything wrong with them selling custom-made instructions to do so? As for "going to work at LEGO", well, sure. But a) not many of us can uproot our lives/families and move to Denmark; b) it's not like LEGO, even as big as it is, can hire all of us; and c) the sad truth is that LEGO isn't putting out the sets that most MOCers want to see made... Barring some retail store exclusive or a surprise mystery set, there won't be an official Razor Crest any time soon, for instance. The only way we'd get many of the designs we do is via MOCers, who are effectively filling a void in the market left by LEGO's insistence on releasing yet another landspeeder/snowspeeder/falcon. I apologize if this is derailing the thread. I do support Midlife's efforts to design a better Crest, and if at the end of that process he decides to create and sell instructions for it, more power to him. If he opts to give it away instead, well... lucky us.

There were two sets and a battle pack in January, don’t forget. They skip one or two set numbers pretty much every year. But yes, it’s entirely possible one or even all of these show up as retail store exclusives before the end of they year.

You are not the first person to question what is going on with the pricing and relative sizing of those two sets.

ARC-170 would be a $90-110 set today. Sorry to say, it was never a realistic guess for this wave. And, I wasn’t necessarily referring to the summer wave. The wishlist I referenced covered the april wave too.