mostlytechnic

Thanks for a great game. And the benefit of getting axed - I just figured out how to make mead, so now I can keep it all for me! MEAD MEAD MEAD, more than I could ever drink.....

You're giving this scum team too much credit, methinks They've lost 2, now 3 with Mist, already, and don't seem terribly organized from the stories being told about talking to them. So I'm not sure I'd be doing too much WIFOM in this game....

You've got it backwards, that's why you're confused. My logic is that IF there's a traitor who needs to get in touch with the scum, then they're not any of the people who posted after Jarl's request. Those people saw his request and had opportunity to contact the scum. If one of them was the traitor, then it's less likely that Mist would have confessed and asked again for contact since the scum would know the traitor. However, with all that's gone on since then, I'm really really doubting that there is a recruitable person in the game. This is all feeling too wrong to me - the scum seem too clueless about how to handle the traitor, so I don't think they know anything and are lying about the whole thing. They may think there might be a traitor, but I don't think they know any more than we do about such a topic.

But really, would a scum try to swing things this late? It's one thing to defend a fellow scum when the wagon is building, but after it's basically a unanimous vote and the scummo has confessed? Just can't see it... Not sure whether Lodmund is a very very desperate scum or too easily persuaded townie who fell for a scum trick.

Ok, so are you scum or not? And if not, why would you claim scum?

I'm trying to think of what on earth could make you unvote someone who CONFESSED to being scum! The only possible thing I've come up with is that Mist is a jester.

1 - yes, it could. Nothing in my logic was absolute. But I think it's likely that I'm right that they didn't find him (if he exists). 2 - the list of people I gave who voted after Jarl's confession. "then Petr switched, and Lodmund, Danr, Kaupmaud, Jafri, Lauga, Tarben joined the bandwagon." Most of that list is very quiet this whole game...

Lemme see if I can lay the logic out.... 1. Jarl asked for a traitor to contact them, but there was only 4 hours left in the day. 2. Mist ALSO asked for a traitor to contact them 3. Therefore, Jarl's request was unsuccessful. 4. Remember, I posted this BEFORE pudding's post about talking to them, so I was assuming no one used Jarl's privatae message link 5. (assumption here) If there's a traitor, they'd have used Jarl's link 6. Anyone who posted after Jarl's request was obviously around to read the request 7. Therefore, anyone who posted after Jarl's request is not the traitor Now, it's not airtight. We don't even know if there IS any sort of traitor or recruit or whatever. But IF there is, my money would be on them being in the second list of names. This is 100% possible. In a previous life where I was on the scum team and we had a recruit ability, there was 1 person we could recruit if we could find them, but the recruit ability was the same person as the kill ability, so we had to pick each night which to use. That meant we didn't use the recruit much since the kill was more valuable. Without knowing WHO to recruit it was too low of a chance of success. Sure, there could have been some scum voting Jarl before he confessed. Less likely though, they'd already lost 1 scum and crane seemed a certain lynch for quite a while, so the only way I see that happening was if they'd been one of the last votes before the confession because they'd talked about it on the scumboard and come up with this plan. If you wanna consider that, I just checked the records. 4-5 hours before Jarl's confession, there was a bunch of votes placed fairly quickly. It went Toki, myself, Dar, Mist, Ragnavald. Rag's vote was the hammer vote, making the lynch official. Then there was 4 hours of no votes, then Petr voting Mist because he hadn't read everything yet, then the confession, and then Petr switched, and Lodmund, Danr, Kaupmaud, Jafri, Lauga, Tarben joined the bandwagon. Does that mean they're all scum? No, but a decent chance 1 or 2 are. Oh, and look, they're all so quiet and hiding for 3 days now. Hm.

I'm not sure we can see any past login times, assuming people have logged in sometime today. Second, you're probably right on finding the scum. Well, we could narrow it down to just those who voted after the confession - not everyone who posted after the confession was placing a vote on him. Some already had voted.

One thing I'll toss out there... I took a look at the end of day 2 since Mist again asked for a traitor to contact the scum. Based on that, I'm assuming that IF there is some sort of traitor/recruit among us, they did not contact Jarl yesterday. So that would eliminate: Agnar Petr Lodmund Danr Kaupmad Jafri Lauga Tarben Canute Pudding since they all posted between Jarl's confession and the end of the day. That means that possible traitors are: Cranebeinn Petrus Mist (obviously not) Toki Tarr Munud (I know I'm not, but since you all don't, I listed myself to be fair) Dar Ragnavald That's a much smaller list of possible converts. (and yes, there's the WIFOM argument that a traitor wouldn't necessarily have trusted his confession, but we could argue that back and forth forever)

1. Yes, the choice for lynch today is easy. Not denying that. 2. I'm not complaining that you voted for Mist - go re-read what I said. It's an obvious vote, that's why I made the same thing. 3. Your accusations against me were crap, that's what I was protesting. You mimicked other people's weak accusations (trying to make them legit just by repeating the same junk), made up things (secret knowledge? really?), and just threw mud at me. That's not scumhunting, that's acting scummy. 4. What else are you supposed to do? I don't know, look at what people said on day 1 and 2? See how they voted? Like I did in analyzing Jarl's votes against Crane? Yep, it's harder when 3 of us (me, pudding, and mist) have made half of the posts for today. So that means everyone else is being too quiet, not that we're too talkative! So prod them, accuse them.

Seriously, where are you getting this? The accusations from pudding that I contradicted myself, but I explained that there was no contradiction? What "knowledge" do I have???? I've looked at the evidence (Jarl's posts, mostly) and said what I think could be explanations of it. Nothing is secret knowledge. And what is so scummy about my posts? That I'm looking at what people say and vote and analyze it? Isn't that the definition of what the town is supposed to do? and I wholeheartedly agree that there are way too many quiet people letting the scum slip among them and hide. That's a big part of why I think people are perceiving me as scummy - because I ACTUALLY TALK and so there's stuff for you to nitpick at me? Frankly, Petr, I found your post scummy. You just vaguely brought up thin accusations other people made, complained about quiet people, placed an obvious vote, and contributed exactly ZERO to the scumhunt. In other words, exactly the sort of thing scum to do accuse townies and try to get them lynched.

I will also Vote: Mist (Mencot) We have the evidence of Mist being blocked when there's missing night kills, and at worst case, a vanilla town claim.

Pudding head, um, but no, they don't. I've said over and over. When I was talking about a traitor, I wasn't thinking of the "official" mafiascum role. In my mind, based on Jarl's posting, I was assuming there might be a recruit role in the scum where the "traitor" is a townie who gets converted once they and the scum hook up. That's basically what we had in a previous life where I was a scummo. In that case, I don't think the "traitor" knew anything. But it's certainly conceivable (and apparently Jarl thought this, assuming his asking for someone to PM him was legit) that the recruitable person knows they're recruitable and so they're looking for the scum at the same time as the scum are looking for them. My whole point was just that IF this happened and IF someone was converted from town to scum (as implied by Jarl's posts), then that should be considered when looking at anything the investigator has done. The exact details of the role are really pretty irrelevant to that point.

Um, yes, you always analyze what people say when you know their alliance, either direction. Not that you trust that he's 100% honest, but you do think about what he's said. And as for the traitor thing, to beat a dead horse, since this keeps coming up (and not sure why we've got a dead horse on the ship, but we do), my comments about the traitor were not based on the classical mafiascum traitor role, but a recruit role of some sort. So then yes, there are roles that can be recruited but investigate town until they're recruited. Not to mention, but not all roles here on EB follow the mafiascum rules! Heck, not all roles used here have even been ever USED over at mafiascum. Hosts can and do make up new stuff to keep us on our toes and keep it fun.

I'm not undermining investigation results, I'm reminding people to be careful because there's legitimate reason to think that someone's alliance MAY have changed. And there's a difference between Jarl's defending Tarben and what I said about Crane. My position was that I - just me, not saying you have to think like this, but I - think he's town because of this analysis I did of facts. I looked at vote patterns and came to a logical conclusion. I then shared that so that others can look at it and see if it makes sense or if they see holes in my logic so that they could tell me that.

You're right, I mis-remembered. I was GOING to vote crane until pudding said not to, so I held off (in fact, you can see where I said exactly that at the time). So you're accurate that I did not vote crane both days. Sorry. As for the voting of crane by jarl. I went back and looked. Pudding voted Crane first. Then Jarl was the second vote on Crane, in the very next post of the thread in fact. The only way that makes sense would be for Crane to be town. If Crane was scum, no way would Jarl risk following Pudding like that. It'd be way too likely to turn into an actual lynch of crane (like it nearly did).

Ok, so I just read the mafia wiki description of traitor, and it's not quite was I was thinking from previous games here. A traitor is someone who might know at least part of the scum team (from the start) but investigates as town. They don't count as scum at first in determining if the town has won, but the scum can "pull them back" and turn them into full, regular scum (at which point they'd investigate as scum as well). I was thinking of a recruit situation like we had in another life here. The scum team knew there was a recruitable person and they could use a recruit ability each night and try to find them. The recruit may or may not be told they're recruitable. But they're just town UNTIL the scum manage to find them and recruit them, at which point they're part of the scum team. See, in that second scenario, the scum KNOW there's someone out there they need to find. They likely don't know if the person knows of their recruitability, but it makes Jarl's confession and posts make sense. If there was someone who knew they were recruitable to the scum team (and it's probably part of their win condition that they have to be recruited), then him outing himself made sense. It was a chance for this person to get in touch with the scum and get recruited. On the other hand, yes, it's very possible that it was just a scam and the scum making a last ditch effort to distract us. If so, so be it. The only real thing we know is that investigator results aren't 100% certain - which they never are anyway, since you could have insane investigators, the godfather, etc. Nothing is 100%. But we should be slightly more on guard of anyone cleared the first 2 nights because it's possible they converted to scum.

Maybe I mis-named roles... but I meant one person who can convert from loyal to scum, but they have to get in contact. The scum then recruit that person at night. Some games the person knows they can be converted (ie traitor) and sometimes they don't. But that's what I meant. Not meaning that I expect multiple conversions.

Yes, you are. I don't KNOW that one was made. But I'm assuming since Jarl asked for the traitor to PM him that there IS a traitor and that the scum have a recruit ability. Since he posted it, there was a good block of time (a few hours at least) in which the traitor could have made contact. So it's possible that A, there is no traitor and it was a gambit to discredit anyone the investigator as cleared (as pudding pointed out), or B, that the traitor wasn't online or otherwise able to contact Jarl before the end of the day, or C, that the traitor didn't trust Jarl (heck, not a bad plan actually if you're town and think there's a traitor and am about to get lynched... claim scum and ask the traitor to contact you, then share their identity with someone before you die... have to remember that for future lives...) I voted Crane both days too, just to be fair. This. And no, that doesn't mean I'm done with the day as pudding claimed. Just means we can have the lynch pretty settled and fight about other things and poke and accuse and everything like normal. I do understand pudding's concern though, there's been times where a lynch was settled early in the day and the rest of the day just dried up. I think we've got enough people still alive to keep this party going though. More mead should help too!

One thing that makes me now think cranebeinn is more likely to be loyal - Jarl voted for him both days. Day 2 it made sense since crane nearly got lynched (meaning Jarl would have voted for any townie instead of himself, but wouldn't have voted for a fellow scum who was close to being lynched). But day 1... just trying to avoid the bandwagon on brand I guess? Throw suspicion around?

Yes, info from blocking last night should reveal much, since I doubt the scum would have gone after someone so quiet he only posted a couple times in 2 game days. I'd assume that either Jarl was the scum killer or the blocker successfully blocked the killer. Or a protector protected the target. I'm not asking for results to be shared directly, but if the blocker and protector could share with SOMEONE, it'd sure give us a good start on today's lynch! My guess is Dag was most likely a SK kill. Small chance it was vig, but I'd put my mead mug on the SK for that one. And I'm highly relieved - was worried there when my name showed up in the day intro and I was legless! More importantly, we now have to assume that there IS a traitor and that he/she has been converted. The fact that Jarl confessed yesterday in order to ask for a traitor come out most likely means that the scum have a recruiting role and know there's a traitor among us. So, investigator, anyone you've cleared as loyal is NOT necessarily clear anymore! There's a chance Jarl's posting was a misdirect to distract us, but I doubt it. He went after the traitor too hard. ninja'd: I see we have a blocking result. Looks like mist is getting lynched today...

My experience has been that the vast majority of the time, public fights in game are townies. So that's why I didn't vote for any of them yesterday and honestly, I find the bickering to be a towntell. Scum try to avoid the spotlight like that. I'll agree with that - townies SHOULD be rethinking all the time and not carving their opinions in stone. 1, carving in stone takes a lot of time and we've got better things to do. And 2, we don't have the facts of people allegiances like the scum do. So being overly insistent on something is a scumread IMHO. The Skull-Smasher pointed this out a little bit ago, but it was pinging me hard too. Why on earth would a townie be so sure of another persons alliance to stake their own life on it? So, I'm going to Unvote: Dagstyrr the Fool (Darkdragon) (I still think his silence is bad, but my vote is wasted here. ) Vote: Jarl Name-Loser (jluck)

Seems like it - let's see... Crane with a bunch, you and me and Jarl and Mist and Dagstyrr with one or so each. So yep, that's at least 6. But really, it's Crane and then random votes with no support from others. Well, Mist might have had a couple votes, but the rest are all solo votes I believe. Sorry, don't have an up to date count, so I'm going from memory and looking up the current page of the thread :) Realistically, it's crane unless someone builds a good case for people to follow. And I'm keeping my poke on Dag for the moment, but I've got enough of a scum-leaning read on Mist to be willing to switch that way if we really don't want to off Cranebeinn today. If there wasn't 24 hours left, I'd be struggling to keep him around despite what Pudding has said. Btu as it is, we've got time still.

Crap, had a whole post and lost it. Here's the summary (just not bothering to go refind the posts I quoted). Crane, the posting about a blocker and fishing for tracker info is scummy. As others have said. Normally I'm the one coming up with crazy theories about weird roles, but this time Pudding took up the mantle. I don't know if he's exactly right, but I can TOTALLY buy that some form of the scum finding our blocker, killing him, and now fishing for info and trying to infiltrate the town is going on. Then there was the short post of Pudding unvoting Crane. Until that, I was 100% planning to vote crane for the reasons I did so yesterday and his actions today. However, I do also think the Pudding is most likely loyal, so if he thinks there's a reason to keep Crane alive, I'll hold off that vote for now. Hopefully he can explain further before the end of the day. (my gut is that maybe Crane claimed to Pudding that he's the blocker, since I can't really wrap my head around someone claiming to Crane, and it's certainly not unheard of for people to claim they're speaking for someone else when it's really their own role they're reporting. ) Instead, for now, I'll Vote: Dagstyrr the Fool (Darkdragon For being so incredibly quiet. So call this a poke if you want, but it's time to do SOME talking around here!