mostlytechnic

Reading the scumboard.... Actor, you were dead on in the plan to act normal. I think I jumped on you because I don't have a read on you (did we ever play together before? It's been over a year since I've done mafia, so my memory is fuzzy.) It definitely had other people defending you. jluck, looks like your not voting was an accident. It worked in your favor at least :)

Oh, jluck - was the not voting day 1 and overall posting very little (at least compared to what I remember of old games with you) deliberate? It gave me a town read on you from the beginning because I assumed a scum wouldn't dare to get vote penalties and be SO absent at the beginning. I assumed it was because you were town and had real life interferring with playing. Um, the not able to confirm his claims thing just made it even more possible that he was scum. It opened up more possibilities that he was scum, since they could have tracked/blocked people and come up with more possible "safe" lies that way, since any consideration of him being scum had to include him being godfather, and therefore could NOT have been blocking on night 1

At least for me, it wasn't that I thought you were the godfather, it's that you COULD be and it didn't matter which of you was lynched and which was killed. Once we had the counterclaims, I knew both of you had to go, Details of who was scum and who was town didn't matter.

Thanks bob!!!! Had a great time in my return to EB mafia. Glad to be on the winning team, and glad to have (somehow) picked scum out. I'm normally terrible at scum reads, but somehow this game I pinged on Actor and mediumsnowman at the right time. To be honest, I originally started that vote on actor just to get people talking, but as I dug around to get some "evidence" to justify my vote, and as the day went on, I got fairly confident I was right. I agree that the ending time thing was an error - that's not normally how games run here - but it happened. Peanuts - if the vote had started to change on the last day, would you have told us you were blocked night 1? Or was the fail not clear why? I certainly understand not wanting to reveal your PR, but to be honest, the fact that you wouldn't verify being blocked was part of why I kept my vote on medium. and fhomess - fantastic vig play! Yes, I'd like some clarity on that kill/watch tangle. I'm assuming medium really was a godfather? That's the easy explanation for the town result. And medium - you played really well, especially in contacting me when you did. I waffled back and forth a TON on the last day. I think the only mistake was how aggressively you tried to not get lynched the last day. That was why I (and I'm sure others) voted for you. If you were legitimately the town blocker, you should have been ok with either order of lynch/vig killing you and khscarymovie. The double elimination really was the best move for town to make, even sacrificing the blocker, and I think you were too self-defensive about it. So I kept my vote where it was because I truly didn't care which of you was lynched.

What feels off is how adamant you are about not getting lynched. Either you or Needa is lying. We have a nice numbers advantage, so that's the resource the town needs to use. Therefore, we lynch/kill both of you and be done with it. I see no way to prove which of you is lying, Therefore, I frankly don't care which is scum and which is loyal. Just eliminate both and then town probably wins tonight. You keep saying that you CAN'T be godfather because of block and kills. That's not true, sorry. Check this and see if there's any flaw in this scenario. You (Thrawn) as godfather. Lying about the blocks, which we can't prove you ever did. (possibly rolecopped/watched us to know it was safe claims) Komec and the others had the kills, which only one succeeded due to protection. Or the scum have conversion instead of kills. See? It's possible. Is that the most likely? not sure. That's a lot of ifs. It's also possible that Needa is the liar. But again, who cares? Just off with both yours heads and let Vader sort it out. :) If we're wrong, what's the worst case? If the scum only have kill ability, none. If the scum have both block and kill (either 2 scum left or 1 scum with both, which would be unusual), then they would have a CHANCE of blocking the vig, but then we would certainly lynch Needa tomorrow. If the scum have a convert, no problem since Needa dies. If they have convert AND block, they'd have a chance of blocking the vig and converting someone, but that's extremely slim. My biggest concern is how much you're concerned with saving yourself from lynch. Seems like that's more important than helping us win. And that's scummy.

Here's the problem - if you are town, why do you care about surviving till night? What is wrong with the plan to lynch you and vig kill Needa vs doing the opposite? Why would we leave either one of you alive at this point? With conflicting claims, and 3 scum already caught, the safe plan is to eliminate BOTH of you. Period. Leaving either alive to tomorrow is foolish. So again, if we're killing both of you off, why do you care which order UNLESS you have a reason to make it to the night? Like you are desperately wanting a slim chance to block the vig and save yourself to tomorrow? Or you actually do have a convert ability you want to use? If you are loyal, you should see that eliminating both of you is the correct path for the town and not be upset by getting lynched. The only reason a truly townie version of you would care about the order (lynch vs vig) is because you wouldn't want a scummy Needa to have that chance of blocking the vig kill. But hey, if we lynch you and Needa survives the night somehow, I am positive who would get lynched tomorrow! Your arguing is digging your hole deeper in my opinion. Yes, you got "cleared" by the investigator. But you legitimately could be the godfather and never have blocked anyone. It's not enough proof to keep you alive, so I go back to the top of this post and say you both need to be eliminated. It's the safest plan for town to win. And that SHOULD be your goal too.

For simplicity, I will Vote: Grand Admiral Thrawn (mediumsnowman) and then I wholeheartedly suggest that Needa be vig killed tonight to be safe. I will also note that we do NOT have to eliminate 3rd parties, according to the rules, in order to win. So we don't have to kill off Greer unless we just want to :) But at the very least, he can wait till night 5, if we have a night 5.

So you're giving us 2 results, but we've had 3 nights. What was your 3rd result? You forget - we killed a scum last night. It's completely possible that Kovac had the kill ability and Needa or Thrawn is scum blocker. Then when Kovac got vig killed, I assume the scum blocking ability is gone and the kill ability moves to whichever one is scum. So we could still have just 1 scum left. For this to be true, how did the scum kill ability fail twice? They got Isard on night 1. I don't know how the abilities resolve if a killer is killed - usually both kills go through. A protector could have been successful 2 nights in a row. Or Thrawn is lying and was the scum killer and was blocked night 3 by Needa. That could work with him being a godfather. Fenton, did you get any message about being blocked night 1? Thrawn said he blocked me night 2. I'm vanilla town, so I cannot verify that claim. I'm wondering - if Thrawn is godfather, did the scum have any info on you or me. because without info, claiming blocker to me would be risky. Especially since he specifically claimed to have blocked me. If I was a PR, I could have outed him as a liar immediately. So I'm wondering if they rolecopped me, found I was vanilla, and so claimed to have blocked me. It's possible that the scum had a real blocker who blocked you night 1, so they would then know it was a safe claim to make. But that's all guessing here. I'm solidly in favor of the nuke option. Lynch one, vig kill the other, and see if we have a day 5 or not. I suspect we'll be done.

Yep, he did tell me ahead of time he planned to block Fenton. As for the other question - assuming we lynch one of the claimers, do we vig kill the second or wait and lynch them tomorrow if needed? Vig kill - Pros: they're both gone, so no more debate over which is which. And town wins, assuming 1 scum left. Vig Kill - Cons: No town blocker tonight, in case there is another scum out there. Wait and lynch the second one tomorrow - Pros: Still might win tonight, if we lynch right. If not, we have another day of discussion and a pretty clear plan. If we lynch correctly and there's still another scum out there, we have a blocker tonight Wait and lynch the second one tomorrow - Cons: If we pick wrong, scum have tonight to kill someone or convert or whatever abilities they have. Piett - have you confirmed that Isard was NOT a vig kill on night 1? Cause if Isard was a vig kill, then we've had zero scum kills and that would say to me that they MUST have a conversion ability instead of a typical kill. If Isard was a scum kill, then we've gotten very lucky with blocks/protects and they may or may not have a convert. Just one correction - since Isard wasn't lynched, how should she have known to claim to someone? Claiming on night 1 would be foolish.

For what it's worth.... (stating this as told to me, from the viewpoint that Thrawn is claiming town) Thrawn contacted me on day 3, since Ozzel flipping town made him assume I was townie. Said he'd blocked Fenton night 1 and me night 2, and told me he would block fenton again as we went into night 3. Told me day 4 he was blocked on that. So I can verify that he was stating this before announcing today. He asked me ahead of time about claiming publicly today, and I said sure, since there's likely only 1 or 2 scum left, so let's get some info out there and see what happens. First, I'm currently not assuming 2 scum left. Last night Komec could have had the scum kill ability and so Needa could be a scum blocker. So the scum having a block ability last night doesn't require there to STILL be 2 left. but there could be. Second, I'm not taking a side yet in the Thrawn/Needa battle. Both have possible tales at this point. So here's a thought - lynch one and have the vig take out the other. If there's only 1 scum left, we win. The only way it fails is if there's 2 scum left - in which case we've killed off a scum and lost the town blocker, but we're still ahead in numbers. Anyone see a flaw in my thinking here? I suppose if there's 2 scum left (or if the last scum gets to have kill AND block abilities, which would not be normal) they'd have a chance of blocking the vig, but it'd be slim. I'm gonna let the two conflicting tales percolate in the brain for a while.... Looking at voting history... (ignoring the mess of day 1 at this point) Day 2, Thrawn voted for me, then Daala, then Piett. Needa voted for Daala and then put the 5th vote onto Jellico as that train was building. Day 3, Thrawn voted for Tarkin to start the day off and stayed there. Needa voted for Thrawn and stayed there. So would a theoretical scummy Needa vote for Jellico when there was a train building there? If they thought they could split the vote enough, it'd be a great move. But it also had the risk of lynching a teammate if the vote kept building. At that time, Komec hadn't voted yet and the other two known scum were voting for Daala, so splitting the vote up was still pretty doable. In fact, after Needa's vote, the next votes placed were Jellico voting Piett and then Komec voting Ozzel, which ended up building to his lynch. So I can buy the possibility of Needa being scum based on those voting patterns. But it also works if Needa was town.

Like others, I disagree. At this point I am convinced there's no serial killer, and I doubt there's any 3rd party at all. Possibly some neutral-ish role like a survivor, but I sorta doubt it. Komec was not very talkative, not like himself at all. I was suspecting he was vanilla town myself, and just not very engaged. Instead, he played a stealthy scum game and I'm glad the vig saw through it better than I did. I think you're misinterpreting that - at the time Komec voted against Ozzel, Jellico had 5 votes on her. His vote was the 4th on Ozzel. I think it was an attempt to split the vote between them and (best case for scum) get another no-lynch. Or worst case, the traitors would have their votes spread between the two scummos and some would be able to brag about that later, whichever got lynched.

General Veers - you're the only one who has not placed a vote this day. Care to remedy that? We do have time now, but it would be nice to see how you're thinking. So far you've been very quiet.

Other notes on people: Veers was the hammer vote on Ozzel. So either he's town, or it was part of a mis-timed plan to hammer, Ozzel claim vig, and Ozzel be saved. Seems risky and prone to all the issues already discussed about Fenton early in the day. Dellus didn't vote yesterday. That's not usually something traitors would do - but in this event, why not? It seems like a vanilla town move ("I was busy, sorry everyone") and not something scum would risk, but since the penalty votes apply on the day of the non-voting, NOT THE NEXT DAY like is normal for hunts I've been on, he knew they would be meaningless in this case. Day 1 he was solidly middle of the pack on posting (right in my scummo sweet spot). Day 2 basically gone. Day 3, no comment on why he was gone yesterday. 1 comment on mechanics (how many scum?), a weak, middle of the pack vote for Tarkin, and then 1 more post questioning why I hadn't voted yet. So given that, I will Vote: Dellus (LegoRacer1)

I've been looking through the voting. I've found a couple people I raised my rating of (meaning I'm leaning loyal on them) so far. That's worth discussion as much as who's scummy. 1. Daala. I know she's been popular to vote for. However, look at day 2's votes. The two traitors voted for Daala as the 2nd and 3rd votes on her. Seems logical, if you're looking for a way to take the heat off of Ozzel. It'd be worth doing even if Daala was on the scum team, since it'd be something to point to later. But Jellico didn't just vote, she built a significant sized case on Daala. Enough so that I'm now leaning town on Daala. 2. Adm. Piett. Another popular vote target. But look at the end of day 2. Piett was around and commented AFTER the vig claim, but didn't unvote. It would have been a perfect opportunity for Piett to have unvoted (like someone else tried to do...) without being suspicious and have saved the traitor from lynch. But Piett didn't. So again, that's making me lean strongly town. Additionally, later in the day Jellico threw a vote on Piett, bringing the count to 3 there as well, trying to distract from the votes building on her. So who's pinging me as scummy? Still working on that.

Captain Needa, I think you're right, personally. I expect Tarkin to flip town, as I've stated. Both his reaction to the voting and the lack of any other push make me convinced of that. However, I doubt at this point things will change, and at least he's confirmed he doesn't have a PR that we'll be losing. So given that, I have to assume all the scum are on his vote and the non-voters (Veers, Komec, and myself) are likely town. Which is funny, because both Veers and Komec have been pinging me as scummy all game, but it's just a feeling, not anything I can point to. I am trying to look through some votes and pick someone to vote for today. I have some other duties to attend to, but I will be back when I have more analysis to discuss.

And I don't mean that as a slam on Tarkin - I appreciate his statement and his desire to keep the discussion alive. Lord Vader, Needs (khscarymovie) voted for Thrawn, not Tarkin.

Frankly, Tarkin's response makes me think he's being honest. I wouldn't expect a traitor who's being lynched to just surrender like that.

Please do, I certainly look forward to it. Care to elaborate? I have both Fenton and Daala in my notes as lame reasoning on their votes, but I thought Delius at least tried to have a reason.

Well, there's the 7 votes needed. So what next? I think Daala might be right that we're going to waste a lot of hours now. But then, there's a bunch of us who haven't voted yet - not enough to change the lynch (unless one of the 7 changes) but enough to make some discussion that should be fruitful on day 4.

Wow, this is quite a run on Tarkin. So... who among them is a traitor? Or is he? I'm not convinced yet.

Ah, glad that there may be hope for that race yet.... Really? What better way to hide? And I'm saying that as someone who's now generally considered loyal after how yesterday went.... if I WERE scum you bet I'd start early votes on my teammates, knowing there was time to swing it around. I shouldn't be townread because I started the voting on ozzel - I should be townread because I stuck to it all the way to the end and didn't get swayed off of my suspicions.

I don't think Isard was the vig either - obviously not since we had a kill last night, but even without it, no, the lack of night 1 vig kill is not an indication like you said. But that doesn't mean the scum might not try to play as if it was true.

Well, if Vader had not cut off voting at the correct time (most leaders I've scum hunted for don't watch the clock so closely....) then they'd have saved BOTH Ozzel and Jellico from lynching, stuck us with a second no-lynch day, and Fenton would have been able to claim later that he was super townie when either Ozzel or Jellico flipped scum, since the vote move was based on a PR claim and therefore quite reasonable. That is of course, based on the idea that Fenton is a traitor as well. With one about to get lynched, why not go for the high-risk high-reward option? Starting with 16 of us, I'd expect 4 or so. The Monster School had 4 in 14, Brickywood had 4 in 18. Trial by Jury had 2 scum teams of 2 each in 14. I will grant that is a reasonable alternate explanation. Yes, scum claiming vig is a crazy claim for exactly the reason you say. The real vig wouldn't even have to wait, they could have killed Ozzel last night (although that'd be risky, since the scum would have any track/watch/etc ability they have pointed at Ozzel to catch the real vig). But the scum team could have 1. gambled that Isard was the vig since there was no night 1 kill or 2. have a watcher and claimed vig specifically to try and catch the real one, since Ozzel would have been busted soon anyway.

Woo! Good job everyone. Or did Lord Vader's end of the day timing screw the traitors royally? It could have been a planned thing to have Ozzel being lynched, claim vig at the last minute, and Fenton switch vote from Ozzel to Jellico to save them both while still looking loyal when either flipped scum later? I definitely plan to dig into the Ozzel/Fenton/Jellico interactions later.... And yes, whoever the doc is, you likely saved a loyal townie last night. Or a blocker did... so if we have a blocker, keep in mind there's probably a 50% chance that whoever you blocked is a traitor. IF you have some way to get that info out, it'd be useful. But at this point, probably not worth sacrificing yourself if you don't have a trusted method of communicating with others. And doc, there's high chance that whoever you protected is loyal. Both by numbers and by the 50% chance you saved their life, meaning they would have to be loyal. So same with you, if you have a way to share, that's useful info. Again, not worth sacrificing yourself over. The more I think about it, the blocker's actions are ALMOST worth revealing him/herself over. Not quite, but close. If they had a way to be 100% sure their target was scum, that would (IMHO) be worth outing themselves. But since they don't know whether they saved someone or the doc did, I wouldn't reveal myself yet if I were them.

Obviously, because you're scum!