Belville Mafia: Day 5

[Fugazi]

While I too suspect Rupert, this is still no way of finding a scum. You've pretty much set up a situation in which anyone who relies after you vote is bad, which makes you look extremely scummy in my eyes. That coupled with the fact that I've had a very strong gut instinct that you're scum since Day 1 almost seals it for me.

Of course, you weren't privy to the looks I saw exchanged between Rupert and Richelle. And it's not something I can prove to you. But consider this: now there's a vote for Rupert, and nobody's jumping to follow me. If Rupert was Loyal, the two scum would vote right away. Are they?

On the other hand, if you vote for me Rupert and Richelle will gladly follow your lead -- they don't even need to be careful about it. Would you like to test it out?

[def]

Of course, you weren't privy to the looks I saw exchanged between Rupert and Richelle. And it's not something I can prove to you. But consider this: now there's a vote for Rupert, and nobody's jumping to follow me. If Rupert was Loyal, the two scum would vote right away. Are they?

Unless you're scum, then you need one more townie vote to get it through... But, I'm leaning toward Rupert or Tammo anyway.

I'd jump in, but it may be seen as a rush to convict, and I want to hear more from everyone else. I have a couple more notions too, but I want to hear a little more before giving details. Keep in mind that I have shared my thoughts a fair amount, in regards to the voting record and the scum being middle of the pack, so I'm not playing coy with you all. I want to hear from Rupert and Richelle before voting.

[Tamamono]

Of course, you weren't privy to the looks I saw exchanged between Rupert and Richelle. And it's not something I can prove to you. But consider this: now there's a vote for Rupert, and nobody's jumping to follow me. If Rupert was Loyal, the two scum would vote right away. Are they?

On the other hand, if you vote for me Rupert and Richelle will gladly follow your lead -- they don't even need to be careful about it. Would you like to test it out?

I suppose that could very well be right. If the both of them had jumped on the bandwagon, it would have been game life over (assuming Pudgy Petra is town of course).

Something just occurred to me, though: the votes you've placed today do not have colons pause after the 'Vote' part, when the rest of your votes from past days did. Maybe you're thinking that the votes won't be counted without the colon pause, and you and your scummy friend will get off easy.

[Fugazi]

No, the real problem with my analysis is the possibility of there being only one scum left. He would wait until there are two votes for a Loyal until voting himself. But in that case, the Loyals still have a chance at ending the ordeal tomorrow, with or without me.

[Rufus]

Rupert was the one who reacted strangely to my vote. What were you about to say when you saw me accuse Petra? And what made you change your mind and stop in your tracks?

I was about to ask you what the hell you were doing - it seemed a very odd thing to do. Before I could reply, you had unvoted.

I noticed Tammo too was preparing to speak at the time, then seemed to think better of it. I'm not sure that you should read too much into this - I for one was thinking 'WTF?' and I'm sure everyone else was too, after you had rightly warned us not to be hasty today. My initial reaction was that you must be scum.

[Tamamono]

I noticed Tammo too was preparing to speak at the time, then seemed to think better of it. I'm not sure that you should read too much into this - I for one was thinking 'WTF?' and I'm sure everyone else was too, after you had rightly warned us not to be hasty today. My initial reaction was that you must be scum.

As I have explained twice already, I was simply going to accuse Fuchsia of being scum (which she probably is). I'm almost completely sure on this one, but the fact that nobody's jumped on Rufus's bandwagon is the only thing keeping me from voting for her.

And by Rufus I of course mean Rupert. I must be losing my mind.

[Rufus]

As I have explained twice already, I was simply going to accuse Fuchsia of being scum (which she probably is). I'm almost completely sure on this one, but the fact that nobody's jumped on Rufus's bandwagon is the only thing keeping me from voting for her.

And by Rufus I of course mean Rupert. I must be losing my mind.

Just to clarify, by you I meant Fuschia, not Tammo.

[def]

I've seen what I wanted to see. In these situations, accused town tend to make defenses and try to convince their town mates to shift things. Look at Amy, look at Dragana. Then look at Irena. Scum are often worried about being seen as flailing, so they try to play it cool.

This vote carries the game, and Rupert's coolness says to me that he is purposely not reacting much to Fuschia, just trying to spin it against him. I think this, with the all town voting record, and the under-the-radar play points to Rupert as scum.

Vote: Rupert (Rufus)

I've seen what I wanted to see. In these situations, accused town tend to make defenses and try to convince their town mates to shift things. Look at Amy, look at Dragana. Then look at Irena. Scum are often worried about being seen as flailing, so they try to play it cool.

This vote carries the game, and Rupert's coolness says to me that he is purposely not reacting much to Fuschia, just trying to spin it against him. I think this, with the all-town voting record, and the under-the-radar play points to Rupert as scum.

Vote: Rupert (Rufus)

My apologies for being so repetitive in my statements above

[Fugazi]

Warning you this morning not to be hasty was a setup for what I just did -- not that it was bad advice anyway.

I was about to ask you what the hell you were doing - it seemed a very odd thing to do. Before I could reply, you had unvoted.

It was even more odd that I would vote then unvote, yet you changed your mind and decided not to say anything?

[Rufus]

I've seen what I wanted to see. In these situations, accused town tend to make defenses and try to convince their town mates to shift things. Look at Amy, look at Dragana. Then look at Irena. Scum are often worried about being seen as flailing, so they try to play it cool.

This vote carries the game, and Rupert's coolness says to me that he is purposely not reacting much to Fuschia, just trying to spin it against him. I think this, with the all town voting record, and the under-the-radar play points to Rupert as scum.

I didn't defend myself as I didn't seriously think you were going to vote for me: I am loyal, and have done nothing wrong. If you want to hand victory to the scum this way, then so be it, but please think carefully before you go through with this. I have already given my reasons for voting for Amy in the only vote where it was possible to to get an 'all-town' record, and I have contributed as best I can throughout this ordeal - far from 'flying under the radar'. We discussed the vote for Irena yesterday; personally I think the scum would have been careful to avoid being seen to not vote for Irena, whereas I voted for Amy because I honestly thought she was scum.

It was even more odd that I would vote then unvote, yet you changed your mind and decided not to say anything?

I was trying to work out what on earth you were playing at. I repeat: Tammo did something very similar, and perhaps for the same reason I did.

Please think carefully about this, guys. If you lynch me today, and there are two scum, then the scum win. You said youself, Fuschia, today is not a day for rash voting. Tammo and Richelle - consider the possibility that Petra and Fuschia are the scum, and this is their play for the win. Anything is possible. All I can say is lynching me today is the worng thing to do, and most likely will hand victory to the scum.

[Tamamono]

I was trying to work out what on earth you were playing at. I repeat: Tammo did something very similar, and perhaps for the same reason I did.

I don't know what 'reason' you did it for, but I was also replying to Fuchsia at the same time you were. It seems strange that she decided to go after you instead of me (or even Richelle). Maybe she and Pudgy Petra decided that you were the easiest target?

[def]

I didn't defend myself as I didn't seriously think you were going to vote for me: I am loyal, and have done nothing wrong. If you want to hand victory to the scum this way, then so be it, but please think carefully before you go through with this. I have already given my reasons for voting for Amy in the only vote where it was possible to to get an 'all-town' record, and I have contributed as best I can throughout this ordeal - far from 'flying under the radar'. We discussed the vote for Irena yesterday; personally I think the scum would have been careful to avoid being seen to not vote for Irena, whereas I voted for Amy because I honestly thought she was scum.

Nice try When you voted for Amy, it was a toss up between her and Irena. The vote could have gone either way, and scum would rather their scummates not get lynched:

http://www.eurobricks.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=57610&view=findpost&p=1027332

Tammo and Richelle - consider the possibility that Petra and Fuschia are the scum, and this is their play for the win. Anything is possible. All I can say is lynching me today is the worng thing to do, and most likely will hand victory to the scum.

Then why wouldn't you put a vote on one of us two then? And why try to deflect suspicion onto Tammo at the same time that you urge her to not vote for you? Either you think she's scum or you don't.

I think Fuschia's out there moves today place her to be a hard working townie more than a scum with a gambit, and your "help" today reeks of scum moves.

I truly hope you are scum, I'd hate to have destroyed this family on a hunch (even if it's an educated one)

[Fugazi]

I don't know what 'reason' you did it for, but I was also replying to Fuchsia at the same time you were. It seems strange that she decided to go after you instead of me (or even Richelle). Maybe she and Pudgy Petra decided that you were the easiest target?

No, it's just that I didn't see you having private conversations. Besides, your explanation for what you were about to say came quickly and sounded more sincere. Are you complaining that I'm not going after you?

[Tamamono]

Then why wouldn't you put a vote on one of us two then? And why try to deflect suspicion onto Tammo at the same time that you urge her to not vote for you? Either you think she's scum or you don't.

It really is a stupid move on his part. Why would he accuse me and then beg me not to vote for him? I'll have to think about this...

Also, why do you keep referring to me as 'she' and 'her'? I'm a man.

No, it's just that I didn't see you having private conversations.

You saw them having private conversations?

Besides, your explanation for what you were about to say came quickly and sounded more sincere. Are you complaining that I'm not going after you?

No, no, no, I'm happy that you're not going after me, I just thought it's rather suspicious that you chose Rupert to accuse over me.

[def]

It really is a stupid move on his part. Why would he accuse me and then beg me not to vote for him? I'll have to think about this...

Also, why do you keep referring to me as 'she' and 'her'? I'm a man.

Really? You don't look like one.

At this point, we can also say:

Fuschia was right about the gang up theory. If Rupert were innocent, and Tammo scum, then Tammo would already have cast the lynch vote. He hasn't, so that is impossible.

Both Tammo and Rupert could be scum. In which case, Tammo would have to do the calculation of when to give up on his partner.

The only case where both could be innocent would be if Fuschia and I were both scum, and I know I'm not, so that means Rupert is definitely guilty

[Fugazi]

You saw them having private conversations?

One of you turned to one other, had a secret conversation, was about to say something. Seeing that Petra might be in danger, I unvoted her. The person stopped before we had a chance to hear what she was going to say.

Tomorrow the surviving Loyals should give a thought at lynching Richelle. She's the one Rupert turned to when I cast my vote. It's interesting to see that she replied so quickly to my voting/unvoting Petra when she normally barely says a word all day. Maybe someone poked [edit: her] discreetly into action?

[Tamamono]

Really? You don't look like one.

I certainly look better than anyone you'll ever get.

At this point, we can also say:

Fuschia was right about the gang up theory. If Rupert were innocent, and Tammo scum, then Tammo would already have cast the lynch vote. He hasn't, so that is impossible.

I know I'm Loyal. I don't know about Rupert, and frankly, the only reason I haven't cast the final vote for him yet is because of my gut feeling that you and Fuchsia are scum.

*quotes and whatnot*

I know you've said that they had private conversations, but do you have any proof? Did you actually see anything, or are you just making shit up at this point?

[def]

I know I'm Loyal. I don't know about Rupert, and frankly, the only reason I haven't cast the final vote for him yet is because of my gut feeling that you and Fuchsia are scum.

Look at the work done in today's discussion... Fuschia and I are trying to read people's behaviour, and I have gone through all the votes, even showed a spot where Rupert was BS'ing about the votes. Fuschia and I are working hard to put things together, while Rupert is playing it off.

Besides, if I were scum, I wouldn't have put my neck out on the line. I would have waited to see how the votes go and pile on to get a victory. No, I'm working to get a victory for the Loyals.

I suggest you look at how Dragana, Amy, and even Sammy handled the votes thrown at them... They worked hard because they were on the side of town, even when there was no hope for them. That's what good town does. It's very hard for scum to fake that, and they rarely do. That's why Rupert is so quiet.

If you really are Loyal, then it looks like you will be the deciding vote. The victory hinges on your judgment. Good luck

Oh dear oh dear... All of this cold, hard logic is making me sleepy. I need to straddle my pillow and get some beauty sleep. I'll be back to see how we fare in two shakes of a lamb's tail

[Fugazi]

I know you've said that they had private conversations, but do you have any proof? Did you actually see anything, or are you just making shit up at this point?

I'm afraid that I can make up shit and you wouldn't see the difference, as there is no possible proof. You must believe me or vote me out. I was there, I witnessed the fleeting moment. You were intent on the main action scene, occasionally reflecting on past days. Rupert cast a glance at Richelle, then went on to have a private chat. Mere coincidence? You decide. In the meantime, I still haven't heard a reasonable explanation coming from either Rupert or Richelle.

I wish there were cleaner ways to end this game. But we've just spent 5 days searching for evidence that never came. I don't know if we're simply all too tired at night to look for evidence, but it's getting frustrating to go down one by one without even a shadow of hope. We took down one scum, and it was pure luck because she wasn't being very active. So I don't care anymore if you follow my lead or not, because either way I want it to end quickly. I can't go on trying to sleep in an empty bed where my husband used to be, waiting for the killer to come for me. So Tammo make up your mind either way, just bring an end to this ordeal.

[Tamamono]

I'm afraid that I can make up shit and you wouldn't see the difference, as there is no possible proof. You must believe me or vote me out. I was there, I witnessed the fleeting moment. You were intent on the main action scene, occasionally reflecting on past days. Rupert cast a glance at Richelle, then went on to have a private chat. Mere coincidence? You decide. In the meantime, I still haven't heard a reasonable explanation coming from either Rupert or Richelle.

If there's no possible proof, then how do you know they talked in private? Did you stalk them? Or maybe you know so much about being in private conversations that you figured you could frame Rupert for being in one.

[Rufus]

Then why wouldn't you put a vote on one of us two then? And why try to deflect suspicion onto Tammo at the same time that you urge her to not vote for you? Either you think she's scum or you don't.

I didn't accuse him of anything, and right now I think he's a confused townie who is trying to work out how you scum have manouevred yourselves so close to winning.

I think Fuschia's out there moves today place her to be a hard working townie more than a scum with a gambit, and your "help" today reeks of scum moves.

So you say, but we have only your word for it that you are loyal. This whole set-up looks carefully contrived, as only people communicating privately could achieve. And we all know only the scum can communicate privately.

I truly hope you are scum, I'd hate to have destroyed this family on a hunch (even if it's an educated one)

Something to say to make yourself appear town, and to convince the others to vote with you and seal their doom.

It really is a stupid move on his part. Why would he accuse me and then beg me not to vote for him? I'll have to think about this...

As above, I didn't accuse you of anything, other than hesitating to post, which if for the same reason as me was because you were totally confused by Fuschia's vote/unvote.

Fuschia was right about the gang up theory. If Rupert were innocent, and Tammo scum, then Tammo would already have cast the lynch vote. He hasn't, so that is impossible.

Both Tammo and Rupert could be scum. In which case, Tammo would have to do the calculation of when to give up on his partner.

The only case where both could be innocent would be if Fuschia and I were both scum, and I know I'm not, so that means Rupert is definitely guilty

So you say. I doubt that very much.

I've had no private conversations with anyone in this room, alive or dead. Fuchsia's accusation is a load of horseshit. Think about this - the scum have to convince us to vote out one of our own today. How do they go about that? They cast a spurious vote, apropos of nothing, and knowing it will make everyone pause and wonder what the hell is going on. Then they accuse anyone who reacts at all of being scum jumping on the bandwagon. What better way to get a lynch going against a townie?

No, Petra, it is you and your scum-mate Fucshia who reek. Since I can't vote for both of you, I'll vote for the one who started this:

Vote: Fuchsia (Fugazi)

[Tamamono]

So you say, but we have only your word for it that you are loyal. This whole set-up looks carefully contrived, as only people communicating privately could achieve. And we all know only the scum can communicate privately.

I know; there's a lot of evidence that points to you, but it's all just too perfect, too convenient. Also, Fuchsia and Pudgy Petra went almost always talk in near-unison, but take some time to contemplate what we say.

I've had no private conversations with anyone in this room, alive or dead. Fuchsia's accusation is a load of horseshit. Think about this - the scum have to convince us to vote out one of our own today. How do they go about that? They cast a spurious vote, apropos of nothing, and knowing it will make everyone pause and wonder what the hell is going on. Then they accuse anyone who reacts at all of being scum jumping on the bandwagon. What better way to get a lynch going against a townie?

No, Petra, it is you and your scum-mate Fucshia who reek. Since I can't vote for both of you, I'll vote for the one who started this:

Vote: Fuchsia (Fugazi)

Things have been adding up slowly against the two of them, and while I was going to wait before starting a vote against one of them, I suppose now's as good a time as ever.

Anyway, Fuchsia today, Petra tomorrow.

Vote: Fuchsia de Belle-ville (Fugazi)

Now it's all up to my lovely wife Richelle.

[Fugazi]

Vote: Fuchsia (Fugazi)

Perfect. Now if Rupert is Loyal, there will be two votes coming up to complete my lynching. But it won't happen, because there are no two other scum.

Tammo, of course that I stalked them. That was the point of my vote. I stalked all four of you, since I had no idea what would be the result. You can figure out by yourself how I figured out who was talking to who.

The fact that Rupert denies ever being in a secret conversation is very telling. He could have said that he was chatting with someone else, on some different business. I saw him, I'm sorry that the rest of you didn't.

Vote: Fuchsia de Belle-ville (Fugazi)

If you're Loyal, you're giving your life away right now. If I'm wrong and you're the second scum, then I hope that Richelle will know who to vote for.

[Tamamono]

Tammo, of course that I stalked them. That was the point of my vote. I stalked all four of you, since I had no idea what would be the result. You can figure out by yourself how I figured out who was talking to who.

And just how did you do that?

The fact that Rupert denies ever being in a secret conversation is very telling. He could have said that he was chatting with someone else, on some different business. I saw him, I'm sorry that the rest of you didn't.

I didn't even see him while I was replying to you. I'm sorry, but this far in the game... of life, seeing is believing.

[Fugazi]

And just how did you do that?

There's no way I can explain it while remaining in character. Suffice to say that in his hurry to act, Rupert didn't use his secret scummy channels to communicate, but rather more obvious methods.