Faefrost

I'm actually of the thought that if we do see a nice D2C Inn, it will be in the LotR theme, and not straight up Castle. There is a rather distinct and famous Inn in the first book / movie. (Well 2 actually, but one is a Hobbity place). I don't think any of us would say no to a full well done version of the Prancing Pony. Thinking on the Inn highlights the biggest disapointments with this new line. There are no civilian minifigs at all and only 1 female. Bleah!

Fair enough, keep your happy thought. It's the only way you'll ever fly. (sorry couldn't resist the Peter Pan reference). But just keep this in the back of your head From Lego's rejection of the Mingles project; "The Legend of Zelda project shows broad support among gaming enthusiasts . This project has provided great inspiration and concept work for what could be a very nice product. However, multiple new element moulds would be required to create the minifigures for such a product, and the expense of these moulds means that the Legend of Zelda project does not pass the LEGO Review on the basis of the business case." And from Ragaru's description of his project on Lego CuuSoo; http://lego.cuusoo.c...deas/view/14886 The author's proposed preferred solution is 2 molds. And according to the text he can't see a good solution that doesn't require at least one. He is gambling that after they make it they can find a use for it in other Themes such as Castle. So yes, while somewhat different than the previous project, it runs right smack into the same specific issue that caused the problem last time. The cost of the elements to make the minifigs. Might Lego decide "what the heck" take a gamble and spend this kind of money on a CuuSoo project? Sure! There's always a chance. Albeit a disturbingly small chance. At the end of the day it will be difficult to get past the costs vs revenues equation. The best hope that Zelda fans have is that Lego will take their interest to heart and seek a full blown, internally developed, retail product, Zelda theme. A full wave of sets that can amortize any development costs and molds. The thing working against that is quite simply that Zelda is a video game series. Outside of MegaBloks Halo line most toy makers have not had a great deal of success in this market. The main reason is getting toy set development cycles to synch with video game popularity surges is extremely difficult and unpredictable. The average video game life cycle is less than 6 months. (OK granted Nintendo does better in this regard). Whereas it take 24+ months to bring a new Lego theme to market. This does not make for a great target window. And then factor in the potential customer base and what the conversion to actual customers needs to be. the best selling Zelda game was Ocarina of Time at 7.6 million sold. Making it one of the all time best selling video games ever. But compare that to other licensed Lego properties. LotR has 150 million readers. 50 million just since the movies. Harry Potter is much the same. So the conversion ratio of fan to Lego customer can be much lower to pull off a success. Meaning that top end toy companies often do not view video game IP as having the best potential return on investment. They are learning otherwise. Minecraft certainly has helped. But just don't be surprised if Lego isn't there yet. It's not a matter of can they do it, or do they have the technology to do it. It is a matter of the impact that the cost of doing so would have on the set or project,a nd the impact that cost has on the sets viability as a product. Think of it this way; If {Cost of special item (mold, handpainting, glue, etc)} / {expected initial production and sales run of set} > 10% of the {final retail price of the set}, then chances are it is unviable and will not pass a revue. There may be a few exceptions to this, primarily sets whose central focus is that special item, such as The Rancor Pit or the larger Dino sets, but as a general rule I would bet it is a fairly good guess for a regular set or a CuuSoo project. Let's play with the math a little more. We know that the total sales for the best Zelda title is 7.6 million. They have had a lot of games, most selling between 2 and 5 million. But the numbers have not been trending consistently up. Lets make a back of the napkin guess and say based off the known numbers that the installed Zelda fan base is probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 million. (peak with a 30% shift over time. Not unreasonable). Now we know that CuuSoo generally plans on initial production runs of about 10k. I believe that was the initial minecraft run. Given CuuSoo interest and chatter and growth of the overall brand, 20k initial run is probably a reasonable guess, and would reflect a 2% conversion of estimated fan to purchaser. That's about the same as we have observed in other licensed properties and pretty normal for this sort of licensed product. Mold and tooling costs will generally run anywhere from just under $100k to well over $250k. Now for a small poduct run like this, that means if the tooling is $80k, it adds $4 per set. A little steep but maybe doable. Higher than they generally would want to be, but less than 10% of the retail price. If the tooling and specialty costs are $200k, then its $10 per set sold, just for that part. Which rapibly eats into the value of the product, and therefore its ability to be sold. And before anyone brings up the CMF's and all the new tooling they get. Keep in mind the CMF line is probably one of TLG's highest margin products. They pack $180 to $240 USD of retail potential into roughly a cubic foot of retail space, and a very compact shipping profile. With a cost to consumer somewhere between 60 and 80 cents per part. I'm not saying that Lego absolutely will not make this set. It's just when looking at it from a business review perspective, it seems kinda a real long shot. Here endeth the lesson.

Actually Strangely is right that the piece could possibly be shared with a classic comic book style Green Goblin, from Spider-Man depending on how they did the face, and assuming they printed Links hair. The radical color shift alone might be enough to differentiate them. BUT!!! It only becomes a viable option if they had already made such a set and part, for a GG set, and were simply converting that (assuming that the radical recolor would be enough to satisfy both license holders.) they are not going to seek to amortize the initial cost of a new part through a CuuSoo set. They would be insane to attempt to do so. Once again making such a part for a Spider-Man set adds $2-3 to the set price. Making it for a CuuSoo set adds $20. This of course assumes that there remains any such similarity between the shape of Links head in the Nintendo design guidelines, and that of the current Marvel design guidelines for the Green Goblin.

The dagger mold probably falls into that strange grey area of derivatives of a license. (See some of the discussions regarding Chima vs Thundercats to see what I am talking about.) it's a lego'ized interpretation of the licensed prop. But the tooling and its use probably reverted to Lego once the PoP license ended. Or at the very least its something so minor that it is not worth Disneys time or effort to make a fuss over. it's a Persian style dagger. it doesn't become or represent anything else until it is in the more unique characters hands. The same will probably happen with similar non character items from Star Wars, such as the guns, once that license eventually ends. Or the LotR Sting sword. The things that the license holders seem most finicky about are typically the character related things. Head/hat/hair, face printing and chest printing, and specific printed or stickered graphics are the big ones. These define the characters and make them recognize able as unique. It gets even weirder or harder for general lay people to follow. There are things that are key licensed elements of the license. The things that clearly define the specific licensed characters. And there are things that are derivative of the license. More generic parts created to make the character possible in Lego. Once again Star Wars shows some great examples. Look at the standard Battle Droids. The defining licensed piece of them is the Head. It's what tells you this is a Lusafilm's TPM type BattleDroid. That piece can only be used with Lucas's approval. But the Torso and Arms are more generic structural elements. Even though they were initially created to hold up the head, they are simply derivative items, with nothing unique or distinguishing about them that points back to the Lucas property. As a result Lego owns those parts and may use them as they wish. In this case I still strongly suspect that the choke point will be Link and specifically Links head. As Anachir points out, they have to match Nintedo's design guides for the character. I would love to be proven wrong, but I just don't think they will hit that without a new mold, and they won't make such a mold for a single CuuSoo project. Don't forget they made sketch models for Mingles proposal, and would have tried everything they could to get the set into the designated budget. It failed the business case because they could not do so. The key failure points then remain the same as now.

I got this set mainly for the figs. Good looking. The vehicle itself is kinda meh. Am I the only one who is not thrilled with the shear amount of vehicles with the rubber band treads we have been seeing this release cycle? Between the Chima ones and ninjago it seems like half the new stuff has them, and they just roll so poorly.

Unlikely. the problem is it is for a distinct and unique element of a licensed character. They can often re use more generic hair pieces, but the character defining stuff is often tied closely to the license and the character. This is why there are some Star Wars elements that will never be used outside of a Star Wars set. (The obvious ones being Darth Vader or Stormtrooper helmets or unique character molds such as Yoda). It can get very subtle sometimes. Princess Leia is a good case to look at. Her classic double buns look is very much a unique character defining one, and that hair piece has only and will only be used in SW sets. Her later long braided hair is a more generic hairstyle and has seen re use. A good test is can a non Lego nerd look at a hair or head piece and know immediately who the character being portrayed is? If yes, then it is probably one that is limited under the license. If no, it may see some recycling. This may also be part of the reason that we seem less prone to see as many female licensed minifigs (aside from the simple fact that the target play audience of 6-16 yo males tends to not prefer them). Many of the main licensed female characters are much more prone to be at least partially defined by visual elements of their hairstyle. And they tend to be harder to cut corners with. (Note how awful Black Widows hair piece looks)

It's "wicked cheap" assuming a certain volume. I'm simply telling you, due to the walled garden nature of CuuSoo, and the small niche production runs, they will not be making any new molds or any special production techniques for these sets that would be limited to just the CuuSoo set. Ever! It's all about the numbers. In this case the math most likely will not work, no matter how much we may wish it otherwise. Zelda has a greater chance of seeing actual production as a regular retail theme, akin to Spongebob, than it does as a niche CuuSoo project. Business can be weird that way. And no they aren't going to go all in with all of their resources for a CuuSoo project. They are going to be asking "can it be made with what we have in the warehouse or maybe a day or twos run time for a new color, plus printing?" These are niche limited run products. They aren't going to break out the nice lady who sculpts the dwarf beards or a crack team of Chinese ladies with super glue for an anticipated initial run of 20,000 pieces.

What could they conceivably do as a D2C set that they have not already covered one way or another fairly recently? Between MMV, Joust, this new Castle line and LotR they seem to have most types of good subjects for a large exclusive set covered. Really the one gaping hole is the one subject they will not do. A medieval church. About the only other thing I could think of would be some sort of massive Forrestmen set? ( maybe they could repurpose the long dreamed about imaginary Ewok village?) I don't think we will be seeing a D2C Castle set this year. We got two last year, and I think they have more than enough regular retail subjects for now.

Nah. The cost of printing drops drastically each year and with each technological evolution. The costs of tooling and molding not so much. Until the day of 3d production printing I don't think we will see any substantial change. Now when they do master that, then many more things become viable for CuuSoo.

The result lacks the ears? As far as the pieces you mention, I can't speak to the Angelica one, but I have the Jack Sparrow one in front of me and it looks like a single cast piece. There are no detectable voids or gaps anywhere around what would be the joining seam. it seems a single piece of rubbery plastic. Are you sure they did not simply build a new master for the tricorn hat by building it on top of the bandana hair piece? So two molds exist, one with hat and one without? That's something that they can and do do. But it doesn't remove the tooling costs.

They can cheat it for some, but it gets problematic. Three of Links key recognition features trigger off of what would be the headpiece. The elf ears, the blonde slightly tussled hair and the green soft hat. These are the design elements that track across all of the versions of the character in all of the games. The Link minifig itself is the key recognition element of a Zelda set and those three things are the key recognition element of the fig. Now someone may be able to come up with something using existing elements, but I have yet to see it. And yes Lego has each of the individual needed parts available. They have elf ear pieces. The have blonde tossed hair pieces. They have a good enough soft cap piece. But Due to design decisions made a long time ago they can't simply combine one from column A one from column B. Yes they are moving that way slowly with some Friends and City experimenting, but its nowhere near there yet. So anything they do requires new tooling.

Go back and re read the section on new molds in that Lego post. The key phrase is projects that "depend" on new molds. Is a new part required as a core and necessary element of the set? Space Troopers is the perfect example. While the proposal has some new molds, they are not on the core elements of the project. The Space Troopers themselves. Those were very carefully crafted to use existing parts. The proposed Alien enemy uses new pieces, but they are essentially a generic foe. They may be modified or redesigned with little impact for the overall project. Further the parts requested are of a more generic or structural nature. So if TLG did decide to make the molds they could be used in a variety of ways. With the Zelda project the big problem is Link. There is no current part option that I am aware of that would create an acceptable Link's hair and hat. And Link and Links distinctive appearence is the core of the set. Without a recognizable Link you do not have a Legend of Zelda set. Now if TLG was to seek a more widespread Zelda themed license and release a full wave of Zelda subjects via mass market retail, then the cost of doing a Link head would be fairly easy to do. But for a single 10 to 20k run of CuuSoo sets? (Yeah it might be more popular than that, but they certainly aren't going to gamble new tooling costs on that). They can get away with new head and hair tooling for CMF's and licensed or retail sets because the production runs are hundreds of thousands of units. At a production run of 200,000 the costs of a new mold may be $2 per set. At a CuuSoo run of 20k the cost is $20 per set. I know all the Zelda fans want a set. But how much are you willing to pay for it? How much would you spend for a set with 3 figs and a bit of wall? None of this is putting down the idea of a Zelda set. But at the end of the day Lego is a business. The core of what those 10k votes on CuuSoo get you is a "business case review". And the absolute root of such review is "can we viably bring this product to market at a cost that enough people would be willing to pay"? There is nothing hidden in any of this. Actually TLG has been remarkably upfront about many of the details of production over the years, if you know where to look. Many very good projects will fail this review for these sorts of reasons. And for all the gnashing of Internet teeth and wailing that will go on when this gets shot down again, you can't fault TLG. As a general rule they have a superb analysis group that rarely if ever sees a failure or loss on a product brought to market these days.

Maybe VIP purchases within that Black Friday sales window?

Also directly from CuuSoo "Models should not depend on new LEGO element molds. While we love considering new elements, if a model depends on a new element, there are more potential factors on which it can fail review. All new LEGO elements go through a very strict design and review process before they are accepted into the LEGO system. An existing element in a new color is OK, but a new element in one set isn't likely." The problem is the math. CuuSoo projects are short run, specialty products that are not generally widely distributed via retail. So production runs in the tens of thousands at best. A single new mold will easily run into a six digit cost. Even a simple hair piece. That cost needs to be amortized over the price of all of the sets that can and would use the piece. The problem is Links hair piece. It is pretty much required to represent the character. Green hat + spiky blonde hair. Without it you just have a Forrestmen minifig. But to make it for just one short run set adds a HUGE cost the the end price of the set. Because CuuSoo is smaller run, and because the hair piece would be a distinct licensed character piece that could not be re used for other purposes (think similar to Stormtrooper helmets. Can't use them outside of SW), that hair alone could easily add $15 to $20 to the cost of each proposed CuuSoo Zelda set. That would put the price per piece ratio somewhere into obscene ranges. And that's where it will fail the business case review... Again. It doesn't matter that this project uses "fewer" new special pieces. The problem is that the core central character requires at least one. And that one piece cannot be amortized in any other way.

Hmmm? If nothing else these sets will serve as a new potential contest. "Totally Tastless Superhero Bum Fights". I'm thinking Batman vs Samual LJackson in a wheelchair. "I AM MR. GLASS!". Next wave, "Captain America beats up a Hippie".

I don't completely hate these. The Mansion is kinda growing on me. It's better than I expected. It at least has some defined walls,a nd gets the feel well enough. Plus it looks like it could be MOC/MOD'ed well. And all of the other armor variants are in fairly inexpensive sets (save the Quinjet one and the comic con one) So Modding a hall of armor to display them all would be easy. My only disappointment there is the lack of a Mark I. But does the licensing allow Lego to make stuff straight up from IM1, such as Mk 1, Mk 2 and Iron Monger? Anyway I like the Mansion, I like the figs in the two cheap sets. The boat set with War Machine and the Extremis dude looks good in spite of the boat. The IM vs the Hobo at least looks like it will be cheap. Mandarin looks bleah. But at least now we have a Doc Doom fig from the spiderman sets to give Stark some real competition. Heck we are probably almost to the point where we can stage a Lego Armor Wars. 3 sets still feels like something is missing? Have we heard of any polybags or small impulse sets, or store exclusives?

Soo... The Ultimate Iron Man Showdown is "Iron Man fights a homeless guy in a shopping cart"?

I think LotR had free shipping.

Grats to the designers. Although this is one that I will not be getting. I'm an Android fan and user, but even with that I don't see any point to this thing.

Yeah, but how much of Lucas's mandate remains in place at this point? With rumors of Disney XD wanting TCW season 6, and today's reports of George Lucas opting to sell his $2 billion in Disney Stock, GL's orders to clean up the extra characters before the start of his classic movies may not be in Disney's interests. Plus I don't think it is lost in Disney that many of the Internet lists of "what characters should be seen in future movies" include a few prominent TCW favorites.

In the past year? Probably somewhere between $500 and $1000 usd. All 4 of the current Modulars. joust. MMV. Plus some smaller sets.

the Embargo's are mainly a factor of the licenses. Lego cannot release pics or info of the sets until the agreed upon dates. whether there is a movie out or not doesn't matter. It is simply a factor of the contracts. Often the IP holder will have some marketing campaign or promo or something that they wish a release to tie into in some way. In the case of the LotR sets, WB/New Line wants them timed to feed a certain amount of interest into the second Hobbit film. Sort of as a teaser. They want them placed where they will do the most good for that. The only hard embargo that seems weird is the one Friends set, because Lego owns that IP. The only thing I can think of is it may be part of the marketing agreements for the Friends show?

Sigh!. Look more broadly at that picture. Yes there are a lot of LoTR sets shown, most of which we have gotten as retail sets. But there is a lot in that picture that has not seen production and probably never will. Watto head? Huge scale Probe Droid? Wookie set? Plus more definite there is a gorgeous Pirate ship that was never made, and two Alien Conquest sets not only designed, but actually with the retail boxes on display, that were never made. It is a picture of the design room at a moment in time. Not a checklist of what they will make, or a visual promise or guarantee.

Reports are that the first "spin off" subject will be Yoda. So a Yoda back story movie of some sort. As far as Disney following the Super Hero model? We can only hope. Disney has the people that did that right. (Marvel). They have experience in the Star Wars universe of sorts. One hopes Disney chooses to use them for it.

I just got mine in the mail today. Woohoo! (US so the states are getting them.) nothing I see about it categorizes it as something for big spenders. It just says a VIP gift and comes with promotional materials talking about the Palace Theater release and March VIP sales (free shipping first half, double VIP second and gift with purchase at some point.) I love the shiny red fig and the printed logo tile.