There is a chance that the dwarf in 79017 is a generic figure! Brickipedia says in there character list of the BO5A set that the dwarf is an "Armoured Dwarf Guard" you know what this could mean! Maybe there will be a dwarf polybag after.
It also shows bard in his SDCC version, (which is good) here is the link.
http://lego.wikia.co...the_Five_Armies
I am almost certain that one of the polybags will be an orc. The other one, personally I think will be Bilbo. Because we haven't got a Bilbo polybag yet. ( if your not counting old Bilbo )
Bain sounds right, though Tauriel is still a serious (and frightening!) possibility. Tell me who wants another Tauriel.
I will be very much surprised if one of the polybags, if we get some, is not a gundabad orc.
Your right there about Nazug, all it would have taken would have been a new face print.
It would have also been good to get some (proper) elf warriors and gondor soldiers, but the elves are an impossibility now.