FABUPUNK Mafia! Day Two—That's Clearly a Giraffe

[Hinckley]

Players (in their anonymous character accounts) only please!!!

Rules

(Deviations from the EB standard Mafia rules are in bold blue. Modified clauses have been struck through.)

1. Each player will be given a character to play, who will be aligned with either the Town (Defectors) or the Scum (Loyalists). To win the game, the Town must kill off all threats to the Town, while the Mafia needs to kill off all players who are not a member of their team, or nothing can prevent this from happening (see example role PMs below) Third-Party (neutral) characters have their own win conditions as outlined in their roles. In this setup, a draw is possible.

1a. This is an anonymous game and you may only post in your character account sent to you by the host. Be sure to check before you post that you are in your anonymous account and not in your main Eurobricks account.

1b. When communicating in private, you should not reveal you true identities to each other, either.

2. Each day you will be able to vote to lynch a player. Voting is mandatory. Voting should be done in the following format; Vote: Character. Similarly, unvoting is to be done in the format; Unvote: Character. No other format will be accepted. A majority vote is required to lynch a player.

3. A game day will last a maximum of 72 hours. You may not vote in the first 24 hours. The day will end when a majority vote has been reached. A majority being reached will not end the day. The day will continue for the full 72 hours and any majority vote that is reached can be overturned. After the day has concluded, a night stage will commence, which will last a maximum of 48 hours. Night actions must be sent to the host in the first 24 hours of the night stage.

3.5. Players may not target the same player two nights in a row, and may not target themselves. Players may not target themselves, unless otherwise noted in your role PM. Players CAN target the same player two nights in a row.

4. The alignment of lynched players, as well as those that died during the night, will be revealed at the beginning of the following day.

5. You may not quote or pretend to quote anything sent to or from you in PM with the game host. This includes all the details of your character and role, as well as any night action results. Role claims and reporting of night action results are acceptable, but in your own words only. Do not attempt to use the structure of your role PM to your advantage. Similarly, you may not directly quote any communications that were sent to you by other players in the game. If you wish to reveal private communications, these must also be paraphrased. 

5a. The Role PM is structured for every player in this way:

Player: Your EB Profile

Character: Character name

Affiliation: Town (Defectors) or Scum (Loyalists) or Neutral

Role: [Either the details of a Night Action or] Vanilla. You have no ability. Your power is in your vote! Use it wisely.

Win Condition: Either (You win when all threats to the Defectors are eliminated) or (You win when all players who are not Loyalists are dead, or nothing can prevent this from happening) or (Neutral's win condition)

Character Quirk: Roleplaying is encouraged in this game. I have given each of you a suggestion of a character quirk you may choose to play or not. Feel free to make up your own.

6. Do not play the game outside the thread. Similarly, do not post out of character inside the thread; you must always play the role given to you. Game tactics and roles may only be discussed in the game thread or via PM with other players. Private discussion is done at your own risk and should be treated as part of the game.

6a. PMing is only allowed during the Night phase for every player.

7. If you are dead, you may not post in thread or discuss the game with any of the players. Any information you had becomes void, and may not be passed on.

8. You may not edit your posts.

9. You must post in every day thread.

10. If you encounter a problem or have a question, please contact the host via PM.

11. Violation of the above rules will result in a vote penalty of half the required majority against you on your first offense, and the death of your character on your second offense. Violation of rule 7 will have a heavier penalty, including suspension, made at the discretion of the Games Moderator. A warning will be given upon our first violation of Rule 1. Do be careful when posting to ensure you are posting from the correct account.

12. There are no hints or clues in the day/night images.

NPC

Govind Goat, Captain of The Pluto

Pernilla, a pig

Omrom, a baby dragon

Players

Calissa Cat, female, Baroness

Caylin Cow, female, Princess of the FABUrealms

Evren Elephant, male, Master of City Development

Fergus Fox, male, Master of Agriculture

Hayleigh Hippo, female, Mistress of Coin

Hendrick Horse, male, Captain of the Royal Guard

Keyarra Crocodile, female, Ambassador to the Dragon Realms

Lyev Lion, male, Master of War

Maddock Monkey, male, Master of Steam Technology

Pembroke Panda, male, Spiritual Advisor

Wyeth Walrus, male, Magistrate

The Deceased

Priella Pig, female, Leader of the High Council, lynched on Day One—Loyalist

Shanley Sheepdog, male, High Commander of the Imperial Fleet, murdered on Night One—Defector

Day Two has begun. You may not vote in the first 24 hours. All PMing or writeboard activity must now cease. There is no outside communication allowed during the Day thread. Thank you!

[Omrom]

The Twicktew has chosen dis setup fow today:

3 Pawanoid Gun Ownews

1 Compuwsive Vigiwante

Wowe PMs fow tonight's one-shot actions wiww go out befowe voting stawts.

The Scum wiww have theiw standawd bwock and factionaw kiww. Theiw kiww wiww awso be compuwsive tonight! Have fun!

[Maddock Monkey]

Aww fuck yeah!

now’s the time to announce I investigated someone last night...

I did some math (I hate counting ) and decided that the probability of someone being scum if they are investigated scum was quite low (just under 50% if I remember correctly) while the probability of someone being town of they are investigated town is quite high (about 85%). Long story short I chose to clear Fergus Fox and well yeah he’s town, though I think that’s pretty obvious in hindsight since he hammered Priella.

aw fuck yeah! Fistbump time fam! I’ll even let you touch my clean hand rather than my poopy one!

Sorry about the different sizes of text, I was in the middle of PMing Fergus when the day came up so I had to do a copy/paste

[Fergus Fox]

Nice! 

I tried to frame Calissa last night but was told this morning that I was unsuccessful.  Presumably blocked by loyalist scum, but I don't really understand why given it was no secret what I had planned to do last night.

[Caylin Cow]

Hi! I'm Caylin Cow, Princess of the FABUrealms! Say, you all look familiar.

Oh right! the lynching! We got one we got one! I knew Priella was a dirty loyalist from her vote.

I was another of our compulsive investigators, and since I couldn't investigate myself as we all know I'd be clean, very clean, just the cleaniest, I went for Hayleigh Hippo and returned with a town result. Now it is entirely possible Hayleigh was framed or that I was insane last night. Hayleigh hungry hungry hippo voted for Hendrick Hamar yesterday, who voted for the Walrus and he wanted a lynch but didn't even switch his vote from earlier to Priella who is now delicious, tender, barbecue.

[Evren Elephant]

Well done on the lynch! (Shut up ralph, you didn't vote to help, you asshole).

I was an investigator last night, and my result was that our resident Walrus came back as town. 

[Keyarra Crocodile]

Oh damn, that's awesome!  Very glad we pushed for the pig. Pembroke, massive props to you for your analysis as that is what swayed me.  It would be worth looking back at who was trying to deflect votes away from the pig yesterday.

So:
1. Caylin Cow investigated Hayleigh Hippo - Town
2. Maddock Monkey investigated Fergus Fox - Town
3. Evren Elephant investigated Wyeth Walrus - Town
4. Fergus Fox tried to frame Calissa Cat - unsuccessful.  Very curious why.
5. One unclaimed framer - unlikely to report back.

The above results are interesting, as we know one of the investigators is insane.  Possibly the framer managed to have an impact on one result, or possibly one of the three is scum ... kinda impossible to know, unfortunately.  My crocodile brain isn't big enough to calculate the odds of the insane investigator targeting scum compared to the odds of the insane investigator targeting a framed townie.  Hmm!

The Twizzler has given us an interesting set-up for tonight.  If the paranoid gun-owners claim, then the vigilante will know who to avoid, but so will the scum.  A most interesting situation.

[Hayleigh Hippo]

1 hour ago, Caylin Cow said:

I was another of our compulsive investigators, and since I couldn't investigate myself as we all know I'd be clean, very clean, just the cleaniest, I went for Hayleigh Hippo and returned with a town result.

That's good news because I actually am town, so I know you weren't an insane investigator, aside from your usual insanity, at least.

As for Priella, I will admit to being surprised but it's a pleasant surprise. I didn't think she was suspicious enough to vote for, but I'm glad some of you did.

Shame about Shanley Sheepdog. Try saying that a few times fast...

 

[Keyarra Crocodile]

Oh, of course, there is also the possibility one of the investigators is scum and is lying about their result.  Shouldn't rule that out either.  Hmm I knew this would be a puzzle ...

[Hayleigh Hippo]

The fact that Fergus failed to frame and was one of the people investigated stands out as the most suspicious to me. Clearly one of the 3 who were investigated is scum and I know it's not me, but I have no idea how to conclusively narrow it down to one.

Anyone else have an investigator claim, or are these the three for certain? Sadly, the sheepdog could have also been one since he died and we'll never know.

[Caylin Cow]

1 hour ago, Hayleigh Hippo said:

As for Priella, I will admit to being surprised but it's a pleasant surprise.

A surprise to be sure, but a welcome one you mean?

[Fergus Fox]

1 hour ago, Keyarra Crocodile said:

It would be worth looking back at who was trying to deflect votes away from the pig yesterday.

That would be our resident motor-mouth, Hendrick, who is being very quiet today.  I was affectionately calling him Horsie-poo yesterday, but I'm now thinking "Number 1 candidate for the day 2 lynch" is more appropriate.

 

1 hour ago, Keyarra Crocodile said:

The above results are interesting, as we know one of the investigators is insane.  Possibly the framer managed to have an impact on one result, or possibly one of the three is scum ... kinda impossible to know, unfortunately. 

1 hour ago, Keyarra Crocodile said:

Oh, of course, there is also the possibility one of the investigators is scum and is lying about their result.  Shouldn't rule that out either.  Hmm I knew this would be a puzzle ...

Exactly. We know that one investigator was insane, but we don't know who the other framer targeted (if anyone) and we don't know how many (if any) investigator actions landed in the scum's hands.  There are so many scenarios here, I don't know what to trust, other than what relates to me because it's the only thing I can verify.

 

1 hour ago, Hayleigh Hippo said:

The fact that Fergus failed to frame and was one of the people investigated stands out as the most suspicious to me. Clearly one of the 3 who were investigated is scum and I know it's not me, but I have no idea how to conclusively narrow it down to one.

Can you clarify exactly what or who you think is suspicious?

Also, why would you suggest "clearly one of the 3" is scum.  One, two or none of those who were investigated could be scum.  Maximum is two because I am definitely town.

[Maddock Monkey]

Definitely can’t be two because we’d need the insane cop to get a town result and then we need one more town result some way some how, which we don’t have a means to explain.

it’s not obvious that one of the investigation targets should be scum, since we did have the un-claimed frame going around.

I wonder why Fergus’s night action was unsuccessful? Maybe the scum didn’t believe he would frame Calissa? I don’t suppose anyone else would know if they had been blocked, would they? All three investigations are spoken for and I doubt the other framer would pipe up now.

re: today’s setup, nobody should claim anything.

[Hayleigh Hippo]

8 minutes ago, Fergus Fox said:

Can you clarify exactly what or who you think is suspicious?

Also, why would you suggest "clearly one of the 3" is scum.  One, two or none of those who were investigated could be scum.  Maximum is two because I am definitely town.

I think it's incredibly suspicious that a frame would fail. That doesn't mean you're suspicious, but the result is. Would there have been any good reason for someone to block that when it was so clearly announced as to be meaningless? I'm sorry if I didn't make that clearer.

As for 'clearly one', if we know there are 2 sane and 1 insane investigators, yet we got 3 town results, one has to be scum. Am I missing something here?

1 minute ago, Maddock Monkey said:

it’s not obvious that one of the investigation targets should be scum, since we did have the un-claimed frame going around.

Oh, if the other framer targeted one of the three, then they were investigated by the insane one, they would end up back to town. Ugh. I hadn't gone quite that far in my thinking. Still seems like a real long-shot though. Someone want to work up the math on that?

[Evren Elephant]

Just now, Hayleigh Hippo said:

I think it's incredibly suspicious that a frame would fail. That doesn't mean you're suspicious, but the result is. Would there have been any good reason for someone to block that when it was so clearly announced as to be meaningless? I'm sorry if I didn't make that clearer.

As for 'clearly one', if we know there are 2 sane and 1 insane investigators, yet we got 3 town results, one has to be scum. Am I missing something here?

We have an unaccounted for frame, which could have been a town getting framed and then turning up as a town anyway because the investigator was insane, or we could have a scum being framed and then showing up as town to a normal investigator. 

[Hayleigh Hippo]

4 minutes ago, Maddock Monkey said:

re: today’s setup, nobody should claim anything.

Absolutely agreed there. Unless the scum want to claim, naturally.

[Fergus Fox]

10 minutes ago, Maddock Monkey said:

Definitely can’t be two because we’d need the insane cop to get a town result and then we need one more town result some way some how, which we don’t have a means to explain.

it’s not obvious that one of the investigation targets should be scum, since we did have the un-claimed frame going around.

I wonder why Fergus’s night action was unsuccessful? Maybe the scum didn’t believe he would frame Calissa? I don’t suppose anyone else would know if they had been blocked, would they? All three investigations are spoken for and I doubt the other framer would pipe up now.

re: today’s setup, nobody should claim anything.

Here is one scenario I can see where two of the supposed town are scum: (1) Sane investigation action to you (let's assume you're town) and you investigate me correctly as town; (2) Insane investigation action goes to town, who uses it on a scum, and it comes back town; and (3) Sane investigation goes to scum, uses it on anyone (ultimately it doesn't matter who) and then reports back that one of his/her scum buddies investigated as town.  This gives three reported as town, two of which are scum.   

 

7 minutes ago, Hayleigh Hippo said:

As for 'clearly one', if we know there are 2 sane and 1 insane investigators, yet we got 3 town results, one has to be scum. Am I missing something here?

Scum could have gotten a frame , used it on town, who was subsequently investigated by the insane investigator.  And the other two sane investigators investigated townies.  Three town results, all correct.

 

7 minutes ago, Hayleigh Hippo said:

I think it's incredibly suspicious that a frame would fail. That doesn't mean you're suspicious, but the result is. Would there have been any good reason for someone to block that when it was so clearly announced as to be meaningless? I'm sorry if I didn't make that clearer.

I can't think of any reason other than to make me look suspicious.  Maybe they assumed that I wouldn't be the target for an investigation. IDK.

[Hayleigh Hippo]

12 minutes ago, Fergus Fox said:

I can't think of any reason other than to make me look suspicious.  Maybe they assumed that I wouldn't be the target for an investigation. IDK.

Yeah, it's nagging at me. You could have easily not reported the failure, since no one has claimed to investigate your target, which generally makes me believe that you're being honest. That in mind, maybe we need to look at it from the other end. Is there any kind of role that is immune to framing? Could the way the frame target was chosen have been gamed to land on someone who knew they couldn't be framed?

[Evren Elephant]

3 minutes ago, Hayleigh Hippo said:

Yeah, it's nagging at me. You could have easily not reported the failure, since no one has claimed to investigate your target, which generally makes me believe that you're being honest. That in mind, maybe we need to look at it from the other end. Is there any kind of role that is immune to framing? Could the way the frame target was chosen have been gamed to land on someone who knew they couldn't be framed?

Would there be any reason for opposing framers to fail if they tried to frame each other? Or maybe the framers both targeted the same person and the second one failed? 

[Hayleigh Hippo]

14 minutes ago, Evren Elephant said:

Would there be any reason for opposing framers to fail if they tried to frame each other? Or maybe the framers both targeted the same person and the second one failed? 

I honestly don't know. I considered the latter but couldn't come up with a reason for the second framer to have never claimed if they just intended to go along with the stated plan anyway.

[Maddock Monkey]

I did some math working on the worst-case basis that there were still 3 scum (Govind Goat heard all about how counting sucks in my PM with him) but I've left my papers at home and it's out of date now we know Priella was scum. Let's think (and assume that scum, in possession of a frame, would try to frame a townie rather than one of themselves in order to spread out suspicion). Going into last night there were twelve barnyard denizens (going to assume that's 10 town, 2 scum at this juncture). Probability is not my strong suit so if anyone can correct my computations and intuition, go ahead.

stuff

Just now, Fergus Fox said:

(3) Sane investigation goes to scum, uses it on anyone (ultimately it doesn't matter who) and then reports back that one of his/her scum buddies investigated as town.

Oh yeah. That throws a spanner in my intuition. Let's do some more math on how to get two scum targets with 3 town results (here my being scum/being town denominators are 13 because the trickster chose before we lost Shanley and Priella, but I think as before the denominators wash out in the end). There are several ways to get a town result on someone.

• event A: be town, be sane, investigate a townie who isn't framed: (10/13)*(2/3)*(9/11)*(9/10)=1620/4290
• event B: be town, be insane, investigate a scum: (10/13)*(1/3)*(2/11)=200/4290
• event C: be town, be insane, investigate a townie who is framed: (10/13)*(1/3)*(9/11)*(1/10)=90/4290
• event D: be scum, be sane, report someone is town: (2/13)*(2/3)=440/4290
• event E: be scum, be insane, report someone is town: (2/13)*(1/3)=220/4290

I guess first I need to add up all the probabilities of all combinations of the 5 events (yuck!) and then do the bayes type stuff. Anyway I hardcoded a little script to do the calculation and for each of the following cases I got the given results (I know I'm double-counting events D and E in places to account for scum choosing to report on either town or scum, and note combo DDE is probably not possible because I doubt there were 4 scum to begin with):

• three town targets (events AAC,AAE,ACD,ADE,CDD): 36%
• one scum target (events AAB,AAE,ABD,ACD,ADE,BDD,CDD): 52%
• two scum targets (events ABD,ADE,BDD,CDD): 12%

I'm tired, this is a massive kludge that took way too long, I'm somehow proud of it even though I suck at probability and counting and all that. Not exactly likely there are two scum. Wouldn't be surprised if there was one scum. Actually in the analysis I did earlier when I assumed all three investigators were town I had these probabilities:

• event A: be sane, investigate a townie who isn't framed: (2/3)*(9/11)*(9/10)=162/330
• event B: be town, be insane, investigate a scum: (1/3)*(2/11)=20/330
• event C: be town, be insane, investigate a townie who is framed: (1/3)*(9/11)*(1/10)=9/330

I intuited that the thing that matters was the 20 vs 9 in the numerator, which gives us a bit less than 1/3 chance that everyone we targeted was town. Why now in the full accounting 36% vs 31%? Because the scum may have tried to investigate (or fake a sane investigation) on a townie to get in our good graces. Either way, it's still 1/3 ish that we all targeted town with our investigations last night.

The real takeaway is I need to go to bed

[Fergus Fox]

1 hour ago, Hayleigh Hippo said:

Yeah, it's nagging at me. You could have easily not reported the failure, since no one has claimed to investigate your target, which generally makes me believe that you're being honest. That in mind, maybe we need to look at it from the other end. Is there any kind of role that is immune to framing? Could the way the frame target was chosen have been gamed to land on someone who knew they couldn't be framed?

Two things that came to mind when you said immunity: commuter and absorber.  I don't really see us having the former given what we know of the set up so far.  Unless is it a means of protecting the third party?  We know from the gorgeous Omrom that the trickster has a diabolical variation of the absorber role.  Would I have been unsuccessful if Calissa absorbed my role??

Also, I checked the calcs for the selection of Calissa as the target and that was correct.  It could have been manipulated by working out when Govinda was likely to post and then making sure that there were enough posts before he did his vote tally.  Possible, but difficult to control and therefore pull off in practice.

[Keyarra Crocodile]

Regarding the unsuccessful frame action, the Absorber role occurred to me as well.  It is still a bit of a mystery how that works in this situation, particularly as it is some kind of variant.  But the basis of it is that the user fails and the Absorber takes the action, right?  Hmm, how does that work in practice though?  I don't really understand it, because the Absorber would be revealed the first time that happened, which doesn't make much sense, i.e., if it were not a one-shot action then the animal-person would know they have lost their action, plus if the action-user always fails when they do it then that also gives the game away.  With the set-up as it is, I kinda doubt we even have any more actions than what the Twat gives us and what we know the scum has, although that is not based on anything other than an instinct.  Omrom has told us a lot about the set-up but I suppose he could have left something out.

Back to the framing though, Calissa do you have any insight as to why a frame might have failed against you?

[Lyev Lion]

Ya'll up at twelve in the morning?  

Anyways best ham sandwich ever apparently! 

[Wyeth Walrus]

Urf!

Thank you for the sane report Master Elephant. Or the insane, framed result. Either way, good work.
As for the business today the twizzler setup seems quite straightforward, there won’t need to be a long discussion about claiming and where to direct actions. In fact there’s an outside chance the scum draw the serial kill and stare down a decent chance of blowing themselves out of the game. Would that make it the quickest we’ve ever dealt with the enemy?