Andrew Laurent

I already said above that Daniel, Fred, Emmett, and myself planned as a group who to block/jail/track. What I was referring to there though was when I announced in today's discussion what Daniel and I did.

In my proposed explanation, he doesn't need to. He decided to kill Daniel, with no knowledge of who is being blocked or protected, and if I hadn't said Daniel had tried to jail him, no one would ever have known.

Ok, you're right. I overstate slightly when I say "I can't see any scenario" - you did come up with a possible situation. However, that requires that either Fred or I be scum, AND we have a strongarm ability somehow, AND we gambled that none of it would be seen in any way (considering Emmett might have tracked someone other than what he told us, and there are multiple people with no roleclaim yet) Again, Occam would say that Fabian and Daniel targeted each other. I certainly am willing to lynch Fabian today (since he's likely the scum killer, and Vincent isn't the killer unless the scum can move roles around).

Wow. Legitimately, thank you Vincent for laying out all those potential explanations. It's helpful to be able to go through them all as a group. Something to factor in... if Fabien (as scum killer) and Daniel targeted each other, we could have the results we see. I asked bob how he was handling conflicting actions, such as if Fred and I or Daniel and I blocked each other (to test claims and so forth). He said it'd be a coin flip for who succeeds. So in that case, Fabien tries to kill Daniel and Daniel is trying to jail Fabien. Coin flip might say Fabien shoots first. No scum blockers needed. So in this case, you and Fabien could both be scum. I keep coming back to why Daniel got killed. I can't see a scenario in which they want him gone, unless you are scum. You knew that Justin would flip town and that today would be Daniel on your case non stop all day. He had to go so that you'd have a shot at convincing the rest of us to let you live. And Fabien (as your scum buddy and killer) sticking his head in like he did but not saying anything makes sense too - he wouldn't want to say anything because he needs to wait for all of our night actions to be revealed before saying what he did, so that he doesn't get trapped in a lie.

I numbered your paragraphs, so I could respond better (and no, I'm not going to turn into wall-of-text Daniel. But we've had major happenings that need discussed, and it's Sunday evening so I have some time to analyze and discuss. And as I said last night, remember, it's just a game. Nothing is personal.) 1. Why would you jump to that conclusion? There's 2 possibilities still on the table. If others would prefer, I'm open to lynching Aiden or Fabien as the potential scum killer and leaving you for another day, since you have been proven to at least not be the killer. 2. Wow, a vote for you pinged you? Who would'a thought Why is the name of my role scummy, and why would you think bob would give "hints" to alignment in the name of the roles? Mafiauniverse says yes, that a vanillaizer is usually a scum role that permanently turns someone vanilla (and therefore is usually limited-shot use). Mafiascum says it can be either and implies that it's permanent. But we've already had that discussion, and that's NOT what I do, as evidenced by the people that I've blocked who still have their abilities. I'm a blocker with a weird name. Take that up with bob when it's over 3. You're right that Trenton and Peter would have been prime suspects, being so quiet. That's why we targeted them last night. They're cleared from being the killer due to what we did. So Aiden and Fabien are possibles, and you vouching for Aiden's secret role doesn't carry a lot of weight. 4. Again, you and aiden verifying each other in secret. You're going to call me fishing, but so be it. Out with the info if you want it to carry any weight with anyone. 5. Finally, we agree on something. Sure, but as much as I love Princess Bride, I find Occam to be more helpful.

You being the target night 3 is one explanation for no kill night 3 - the other one being that one of the blocked people was the killer. That's why we blocked you again. What I said was "Either Vincent is scum and trying to eliminate his main accuser at the same time as Justin flips town, or something else weird has to be going on. If Daniel and Vincent are both town, then the scum HAVE to love how much they've dominated the discussion. So I can't wrap my head around any other explanation for all this than Vincent being scum" In other words, if you are both town, the scum would not be killing off Daniel. You two have been the center of attention and so as long as you're pushing for townies to get lynched, they'd keep you both alive so they can hide in your very large shadows. Therefore, Daniel being killed makes me think that you are scum. It is a logical deduction. Yes, in PM last night I said I'd re-evaluate my opinions of you and others if Justin flipped town. I had time to what-if that in my mind during the many hours of the night after that PM conversation, and therefore when it HAPPENED, I'd already thought through the possibility of you being scum. What I hadn't thought through was Daniel getting killed off and being proven town. That just pushed me from "hey, let's discuss our thoughts on Vincent" over to "Vincent is scum and I'm voting for him"

Thanks Fred. So the update: Here's who's alive, and any reason they could NOT be the scum killer Aiden - possible Andrew - my blocks have been verified Emmett - tracking has been verified Fabien - possible Fred - blocks have been verified Peter - was blocked Night 4 when Daniel was killed Robin - was jailed Night 2 when Jean was killed Trenton - possible Vincent - was blocked Night 4 when Daniel was killed

Wow, double shock. I did NOT expect that. Justin's town? Well, Vincent, what'cha got to say for yourself? And Daniel? I'm not at all surprised he's town, but why would he get killed? Either Vincent is scum and trying to eliminate his main accuser at the same time as Justin flips town, or something else weird has to be going on. If Daniel and Vincent are both town, then the scum HAVE to love how much they've dominated the discussion. So I can't wrap my head around any other explanation for all this than Vincent being scum Vote: Vincent Also, for the record... Fred, Daniel, Emmett, and myself coordinated our plans last night. I'll let the others decide whether and when to share their actions. But I blocked Peter successfully. And Daniel was attempting to jail Fabien. So I briefly thought that perhaps Fabien was a PGO/Bomb type, but I realized that I blocked him successfully night 3. So that can't be the case or I would have been killed then. So who does that mean could be the scum killer? Here's who's alive, and any reason they could NOT be the scum killer Aiden - possible Andrew - my blocks have been verified Emmett - tracking has been verified Fabien - possible Fred - blocks have been verified Peter - was blocked Night 4 when Daniel was killed Robin - was jailed Night 2 when Jean was killed Trenton - possible Vincent - possible And to be honest, I know some of those possibles are probably not the killer because one was supposed to be blocked last night, and another was supposed to be tracked. But I will have to wait until Fred/Emmett reveal the success or failure of their actions to rule those people out.

Hm. Looking towards day 5.... Fabien, your post has done more to sway my opinion of you than anything else all game. It's rare to see a scum put that much effort into legit analysis, so in addition to making some good points (that'll I'll go over again after some caffeine, cause I'm not fully awake yet) you've significantly raised my townieness rating on you. The points made over the last half day by you and Justin are making me rethink some things. I still think Justin is scummy and just desperately trying to save himself, so I'm keeping my vote there. Assuming that's correct, then I can't fathom Vincent being scum with how hard he's pushed on Justin the whole game. But if I'm wrong and Justin is revealed as town, I absolutely will have to reconsider my position on Vincent, which will lead to reconsidering my opinion of just about everyone. I sure hope we're right on Justin being scum, because him flipping town will mess up a lot of how I've interpreted things all game. And where is Trenton? He hasn't voted yet either.

Of course he is - cause he'd rather you be lynched than him :) However, he should be keeping in mind that if you do flip town, then he will REALLY be in the hot seat tomorrow. I absolutely see that they are controlling the narrative. The question is - are they doing that because one or both is scum and trying to mislead, or because they're both townies trying their hardest to win? Either is possible. Unfortunately, the only way to know for sure is to lynch them. If you do flip town, then I'd say odds are high that Vincent is in the noose tomorrow to test out his claims and protestations. again, in a scenario where you are revealed at town, then the best thing for him would be to be blocked again and a scum kill happen. That wouldn't prove he's not scum. It's just show that he's not the scum killer. But the 3 of us will discuss tonight who to block. I don't think making the plan publicly here is wise. I DO think we should bring Emmett into the loop to coordinate the tracking and blocking abilities.

Honestly, I'm keeping this list and I think it's fairly logical. I still can't get onboard with Vincent/Aiden/Daniel being scum, but that may just be my past experiences with how fights have turned out. I don't actually have itemized lists showing why any of the 3 are townie Thanks for calling that out. I'd missed Robin's vote and so we were a vote higher on Justin than I thought.

If I had to vote right now, I'd jump on the Justin bandwagon. I've said already I'm open to that lynch. You know what, why not. Vote: Justin Reynaud He was blocked and I want to test that correlation between blocked people and no kill last night. I actually had a whole thing written about how I was not going to vote yet because we were already halfway to a lynch and I didn't want to encourage a quick wagon and the day's discussion to die out (I've seen that before). However, I don't think we're in any danger of players here not talking Plus, it's possible that if we reach a lynch count, the day could end early and we move along.

Frankly, I'm ok with lynching either one of you two. The killer being blocked is the simplest answer, and neither one of you screams townie enough to me to sway me away from lynching you. I'd like to lynch one of you today and probably the other tomorrow. So either you're vanilla (and not willing to help save Alex) or you've got a limited shot role (like Robin claims to have) or you've got a passive role (bomb, etc) or you have something you are choosing not to use. The only thing I could possibly think of in the last category is vig, but surely a Vigilante would have enough suspicions to be taking out targets by N3. So you pile suspicion on Daniel, but then vote for Justin? That's odd...

In our PM chat? No one. No one named any specific roles. I just suggested having any investigative abilities check us out as well. I put voyeur in the list in my post today since Justin's claim brought it up.

Vincent, I can answer a bunch of that since I was in the PM with Daniel and Fred. *I* started the PM. I asked the other two if we should plan our blocks as a group. I initially threw out blocking Fabien, Justin, Peter, Robin, or Trenton. I also suggested blocking each other as a test. In that initial message I also tossed out jailing you or Aiden since it would block you if you're lying scum and protect you if you're truly town. Finally, I suggested inviting anyone with investigative abilities (if any of us knew that anyone had tracking, watching, voyeur, etc) to check what we were doing. Basically, I was trying to verify if we really do have 3 different blocking abilities. Fred wanted to have someone block Justin. Daniel wanted to see Fabien blocked, as well as either justin or Peter. He was not as excited about the Vincent/Aiden idea. After that round of discussion, I suggested that I block Fabien, Daniel jail one of you two, and Fred pick between Justin and Peter. Teh other two agreed with that and each picked, Vincent and Justin respectively.

Sorry, guess I was wrong. I think I assumed that among your walls of text there were heaps of votes. Daniel did (a couple on day 1, couple on day 2, and 5 on day 3) and I mixed that up in my memory.

That doesn't change the implication that one of the blocked people is the scum killer. The scum can't control being blocked, so if they knew that we were blocking them there's not much they could do (unless they have yet another blocker to block our blocker) If the scum killer is NOT one of the people we blocked, then it should have gone through (with again, a few exceptions due to other things preventing it).

I concur. The odds are in our favor that one of the blocked people is the scum killer, since the scum wouldn't have known who we were blocking unless one of the 3 of us told them. Again, yes there's a chance there was no kill for another reason, but we've gotta go with the odds and the information we have.

Yep. I recommend we look at who got blocked last night - Fabien, Vincent, and person #3 who Fred blocked. No, it's not for certain that one of them is the scum killer. The scum could have been prevented in some other way. But there's a decent chance that one of those 3 is the scum killer. Of those 3, Fabien didn't bother to vote day 1 or 2 and placed the second vote on Justin day 3 and left it there all day. That doesn't feel scummy to me - lazy yes, but not scummy since they usually DON'T want to draw attention to their voting like that. Vincent has thrown votes all over the place. Person #3, well, I'll have to wait on that vote analysis.

Yep, which is why we aren't confirming what we did publicly until our targets do. Daniel, Fred, and myself know who each other was going to target, so we want our targets to confirm we actually did it without us saying who first as a prompt for potential scum to lie. Yes, I blocked you. I just did, since Fabien said he was blocked. You should be able therefore to confirm what I'm claiming here, and that at least proves that I'm a blocker. Doesn't necessarily prove I'm town, but it's a step in the right direction. (rereading what I posted, I realize that last line of "I just did" might sound snarky or sarcastic. It wasn't meant to at all. I'm just saying I'm saying it so you can confirm it now too)

Can you verify that you were at least blocked by Daniel? I think 3 blocker claims (well, 2 blockers and a jailer) could easily be legit, but that doesn't mean the blockers are all TOWN. We also technically don't have any proof that Daniel is a jailer rather than a regular blocker... But as the 3 of us discussed last night, any of the three of us could be a scum blocker trying to get trusted as town. Ninja'd by multiple - but I think Vincent was trying to make the same point as me, that one of our blocker claims could be a scum blocker.

Crap. So Alex was telling the truth about being vanilla. What a crappy position for him to be in - almost like being a miller or something, where you know your claim will be suspect. So we've got Vincent being jailed - maybe he was the target of the scum and so he was protected, or maybe he was the scum killer. I'm still leaning town, but it has to be considered. I coordinated with Daniel and Fred on our blocks last night. I was successful on my block, but I don't want to reveal the name of who just yet. They are obviously someone who must now be a big suspect of being a scum killer. Fred's block target (if it was successful) would likewise be a strong suspect. I'm waiting on the names of our block-ees in case they come in and claim something, since we've still got 3 blocked people to consider. We've got plenty of time today to hash it out once more people show up and we see if anything else happened overnight.

Ah, another day down. Another lynch in the books. Now time to rest and recover so we can do it again!

It will help with the rolemadness question, but not fully answer it. Here's the possibilities with Alex getting lynched: 1. He flips scum, in which case we're down a scummo and can ignore his vanilla claim (might be godfather, might not, but who cares) 2. He flips town, still claiming vanilla, in which case we have to re-evaluate a bunch of stuff. Could be that bob made a rolemaddness with one vanilla, almost like having a miller around in a normal game (by that I just mean someone who's role will have to be questioned and tested because it's deceiving) 3. He flips town, but changes his claim before the end of the day. This is worst case - it'd mean he had a strong role that he was trying to hide with a vanilla claim, not realizing how that would bring attention to him rather than deflecting it like he intended. The only better way to test his claim would be with a rolecop, which we haven't had anyone claim such an ability yet. Which in and of itself is sorta surprising, in a rolemadness game... but we do still have people not claiming what their roles are. I assume there's multiple investigative roles among them since we so far have heavy defensive claims but little investigative roles. However, a rolecop on Alex wouldn't distinguish whether he's town vanilla as claimed or scum godfather/goon, so we'd still be stuck with lynching him to answer that part. Ugh..

I'm sure the scum are hindered by the no-PM rule, which is why I think scrutinizing claims is critical. It's why I'm staying on my Alex vote at this time - I find merit in the theory that he was an unprepared scum, possibly a godfather, and claimed poorly. If we're wrong, we're at least not losing a PR. And I've seen all the suggestions that Fred and I coordinated our blocking. We did not. I have had NO PM interactions with him. In fact, the only PMs I've had this game was Justin reaching out to me night 1 and saying he hoped saying almost the same thing as me didn't get us in trouble (which seems odd... since he doesn't know my alignment, unless he is scum) and asking if I thought we had another role madness. I said I bet we did. And remember, that was N1 so we didn't have all these claims flying around already. As for tonight - I am ABSOLUTELY open to coordinating our blocking activities to try and both verify our claims and stop scum kills.