Andrew Laurent

Wow, we've actually had EVERYONE speak already today! Some I'm not sure should count (cough, Aiden, cough) but we at least know everyone has shown up a little. So, how do we explain another no-kill night, and who do we lynch today? It's vital we get it right. Robin, who did you protect? Sorry for confusing people with my wall of text - I was thinking out loud and had already written that whole thing about Vincent and the no-kills and the blocks because I wanted to throw it out and see what people thought. But I decided that would not be a good way to handle it - making accusations that I knew were false. So I put the rebuttal in that same post.

Which idea? To tell Vincent he's blocked but then block 2 other people instead? Yes, that's what we did as I said later in that post. I blocked who I said I would in our discussion. I assume Fred did the same, but I have no proof of that yet.

Dang Vincent... while that was a wall, it was a readable wall and a useful wall. We were all there with ya on Justin, and most of us were there with ya on Fabien (I didn't want to lynch him but for the entirely wrong reasons!) And yes, we wasted some blocks on you. So be it. Can't go back now. And I'm sure not one to overly question your role name, since I'm a vanillaizer that isn't really what that typically means either. But whatever... we need to focus on succeeding. For all of our sanity! In case anyone hasn't realized it, we are possibly at LyLo now. If we started with 4 scum, there's 3 left. We have 8 players. If we lynch another townie and the scum succeed in a kill tonight, they win. Period. bob's rules say that scum win at parity not just when they outnumber the town. I even checked that with bob, since I was worried about the possibility that Fabien was a vengeful vigilante and would kill Vincent - and if they were both town AND the scum pulled off a kill, day 6 wouldn't have happened. We'd be reading the conclusion now. Brace yourselves, I'm gonna think out loud here a bit.... As much as I gave Vincent some verbal hugs there, we gotta consider if he's telling the truth. Is he the scum killer and deceiving us? Why would he be trying to get lynched, since yes, us policy lynching him is likely. What if he and Aiden are both scum. V is the killer and Aiden really IS a governor. So we waste a lynch on scum-Vincent because scum-Aiden saves him? A scum governor feels way overpowered, but is it really? We've seen enough other odd roles in this game. A scum governor really only saves the person for 1 night since they'll probably be re-lynched the next day, and then the governor the day after that. Aka, its only useful as an end of game gambit. If that's the case, would they be pulling it now? No, because that doesn't give them the win. Undoing the lynch and night killing someone at best gives them 4:3 numbers, so not a win yet. And we'd re-lynch tomorrow, and they'd probably end up losing. So scratch that whole idea. I've talked myself through to it being not realistic. Is scum-Vincent fake-claiming, hoping that with the whole day ahead he can talk his way OUT of a policy lynch (since we see how good we've been at lynching), and then not be blocked tonight so he can carry out the kill? THAT makes much more sense. And it could work out... Night 1 Emmett saw vincent do nothing. Because Joshua was the original scum killer. Day 2, Joshua is lynched and the kill moved to Vincent, who took out Jean. Nights 3, 4, and 5, no scum kills... cause Vincent was blocked. Thoughts? I would love to leave that there and get everyone's input. But I can't, because I know it's not possible quite like that. Last night we TOLD Vincent he was being blocked again, but we did not block him. So unless he was a foolish scum killer who took our word for it and didn't send in a kill attempt, he would have gotten a kill last night. So crap, that possibility probably doesn't work either. Any other scenarios in which Vincent is scum? I can't think of any more right now (it's bedtime) so for now, I'm keeping V in my town column even though I REALLY thought with how the voting went that he and Fabien HAD to be on opposite sides.

I just wanted clarification on your comment that you didn't think anyone tried to kill your target. That could mean that your result PM said that, in which case we would KNOW that no one tried to kill your target. Or you could have just been giving your opinion. Both are good information - this game is all about opinions. I just wanted clarity as to which that statement was, so that we don't make bad analysis down the road due to it. (in case you can't guess... in real life I work in R&D at a small company, and I deal all day long with people in our sales dept who make up numbers and don't know the difference between a proven fact and a vague guess. And it drives me insane....)

Again, with such helpful input. Anything useful you'd like to add to the discussion?

Ok, so just your gut call then? Nothing wrong with that; I just want to make sure we're working with accurate information and not turning opinions into proven facts.

Hey, where is everyone? The day's been open for 3 minutes and no one else is posting yet. Are you a scum plotting together before you post? Oh wait, the scum can't day-PM. And joking about everyone being scum got me in hot water day 1, so I probably shouldn't do it. Based on what? Do you get any indication that your protection was actual used, or are you just assuming that whoever you protected wasn't a likely target?

Well, I will play a trumpet fanfare in memory of our lost friend. He sacrificed himself to prove he was truthful. Toot Toooooooot Tooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooot!!!!!!!!!! We now can safely believe he was telling the truth, as shocking as that is. There was no scum kill night 3 OR 4. So was Vincent the killer, since he was blocked both nights? Did they not use it? Did Robin (or Daniel N3) protect the target? Could they have something they're using instead of the kill, like a conversion? THAT is a terrifying thought! ARGHHHHH! Also, my block last night was successful. I won't say on who yet. I do know who Fred was planning to block, but I do not know who Emmett was planning to track.

That was.... beautiful. Perhaps you two could play music together? It'd sound better, and get done in half the time

As if the Tuba wasn't annoying enough, we had to end the day with a trumpet fanfare? How's a guy supposed to get any sleep around here?

Mafiascum wiki says that vengeful CAN be scum, but it's definitely not normal, even by their standards. It punishes town for doing their job of lynching scum. Aiden, it's not a threat. It's my opinion - if someone unvotes to save him, I'd assume from that they are both scum and would try to work with Fred to block both tonight and then work tomorrow to lynch one of them, based on what happens overnight. Fabien, I did miss that you replaced the vote, since the board merged them while I was writing. That only EVEN MORE clinches that you're vengeful - you're ensuring you get lynched (a requirement to use a vengeful ability) but you swapped positions, so I assume whatever ability you get to use will now impact Vincent instead of yourself. Course, you being vengeful makes me lean townier on you again. MY BRAIN HURTS!

I'm assuming vengeful (town OR scum) - but if someone else unvotes to save him then they're both scum

Right now, messing with Vincent makes you look like scum. And since he's apparently not around, we don't learn anything from his reaction.

Now we've got 25 minutes left. I'm sticking around, but if anyone else unvotes, I admit I'd be very torn. Yes, I'd be afraid of being taken out or vanillaized by a vengeful Fabien. And I also truly think keeping him alive and blocking him is the better plan. His current actions make me assume that he and Vincent are opposite teams, whichever way that flips. The only reason for him to unvote is if he truly is vengeful, and is therefore doing something to Vincent as the hammer vote. I can't find any info on a good vengeful action against the hammer vote. The only positive vengeful actions are a benefit to the town by giving the lynched vengeful some extra ability, like an investigation with the result shared to the town. So maybe it's an automatic investigation or block or something on Vincent? Really? Is that supposed to be helpful right now? Or are you just making the point that you're here and not changing your vote?

Vote: Fred Dumont I can't not vote. But I've already said Fred is my #3 most trusted here. Since I don't want to lynch Fabien, I'm placing essentially a poke vote. So much has gone on today, and you've been the least-active person here. I'd love to put votes on Peter, Trenton, and Emmett as well, but I only have 1 vote to place. And I'm not enough of a jerk to bob to "vote, unvote" my way through them all Fabien, why are you unvoting yourself? That makes no sense now. The only reason is if you really ARE some sort of vengeful that affects the hammer, and by unvoting you just moved Vincent up to the hammer spot. So ARE you a vengeful? (and fyi - I'd already written my fred vote before Fabien's unvote post)

Fabien, I don't want to lynch you. I've already said that. I think we'd be better off keeping you alive and blocked. Right now you and Emmett are the two people I most want to keep alive, but for opposite reasons Fred is a close 3rd - given no kill night 3, I'm not convinced that there is a scum in our "town block"

If we had a vig, he could have easily been one of the early losses - Remi, Michael, or Jean. And yes Peter, sometimes letting a known scum live IS the best option. If you know you can contain them, you can keep their ability useless rather than letting it be passed to someone else. And in case he's NOT scum, it's keeping a townie alive to keep our numbers higher. If we are able to catch 2 other scum and the game is still going, then we lynch him and see if it ends. If he's town, I'd expect the scum to let him live (so that one of our blockers is tied up every night) as long as possible. Emmett, if you're not comfortable sharing your plan with Fred and I that's fine. There's not any reason we need to know ahead of time what you're doing. If you want me to share my block plan with you I will, since I'm pretty darn convinced you're loyal. I'm also leaning significantly town on Fred, so I do plan to coordinate with him how we block tonight.

Having Aiden use his role accomplishes only one thing - it uses it up, assuming he's only got 1 shot with it. Governor can be town or scum, and just proving that he has it doesn't tell us anything about him. It'd also let him over-ride the will of the town if most people want to lynch Fabien. Sure, we could just block Vincent and Fabien the rest of the game while voting one person at a time out. But that doesn't let us test Peter, Robin, Aiden, Trenton via blocks at all.

Would we be facing a scum killer with multiple-use strongarm? That seems grossly overpowered to me. A strongarm makes sense in a game with 3 blockers, but not multi-use. In what world would scum-Andrew be trying to save scum-Fabien? That' would be SO easy to test out. Let Fabien live, have Fred block him. If fred's block fails, that means scum-Andrew blocked fred and won the coin flip, so then you lynch me. There can't be another blocker out there or we'd have seen some evidence by now. I'm worried that lynching Fabien will just let the scum kill move to someone else and then we're starting over trying to catch them. If we know where the kill is, we can tie Fabien up and prevent him from killing until we're pretty sure he's the last scum, and then we lynch him. That's safer. Your comments on people: Trenton - I can't see ninja blocker being a thing again this game. We haven't had any unexplained blocks. And a 4th blocker? 3 is putting enough suspicion on me, I don't wanna fathom a 4th. Aiden - big unknown here. I get keeping the role secret for a long time, if it's real, since it most useful when people don't know it's there until used. But also could be making something up because he's a godfather or something. Robin - I'm trying to figure out what he's got going on that could be so secret. A babysitter (he can protect, but if Robin gets night-killed both his protectee and Robin die)? A bodyguard or version thereof (he dies in place of the target, or he dies AND takes out the killer)? A rolestopper (prevents ANY actions from affecting his target)? A seraph knight (once he picks a target, he protects that person for the rest of the game until he's killed himself)? Does it even matter? Not really... Peter - big unknown here. Vincent - another big unknown. I've thought you town most of the game, but now I've come up with scenarios where you could be a scummo. Also, wasn't there something weird with night 1 and you were tracked but unsuccessful and we weren't sure why? Crap, now I have to go back to the possibility of a ninja blocker...

I fully admit you may be telling the truth. The problem is that you'd be doing the exact same things either if you're the town vig or the scum killer right now. Yes, a lynch will tell us which you are. But if you are a scummy scummo killer, then we're playing right into your diabolical scheme. If we don't lynch you, we need to block you and block/watch 2 out of Aiden, Peter, Vincent. If we DO lynch you, then we have another choice to make. Trust that you're town and block/track those 3, or believe that you're scum and go after 3 others to prevent/catch the scum killer. So I'm glad we've got 30ish hours to make a decision.

For Emmett to be lying about his tracker claim, he'd have to be cahoots with the other scum to fake it. If I remember right, he claimed to have seen Daniel visit Robin before Daniel said so. And since Daniel is town, they wouldn't have collaborated on something like that. And he definitely said who I blocked night 3 before I revealed it, and I know I didn't tell him (but it is possible that Fred's scum and told him our plan). So I'm 99% on Emmett being a legitimate town tracker. On day 2, here was the final votes on Joshua with confirmed town in green: Joshua Levitt - 9 (Jean Pelley, Andrew Laurent, Vincent Denis, Aiden Leon, Peter Lyon, Daniel Lucas, Emmett Ware, Justin Reynaud, Fred Dumont) This is one of the few things still making me question whether Aiden and Vincent could be scum - their position on the vote range. When Vincent put #3 on Joshua, Daniel already had 3. When Aiden put #4 on Joshua, Daniel was at 5. Why would scummy Vincent/Aiden make those votes, when town Daniel was in such an easier place to knock off? At the risk of sounding like Vincent and Daniel, this game is starting to make my brain hurt. The possible scum killers at this point are Aiden, Fabien, Peter, Vincent. Right? Am I missing anything there? I'm so torn. I almost unvoted Fabien last night. I can't see why a scum-killer Fabien would claim. I guess it's a gamble either way - not claim, hope that everyone can focus on someone else, and you live to kill another night. Or wait, this does make sense now. If Fabien is the scum killer, he can claim, knowing that he'll probably get lynched for it (but there's a good chance he or another scum would get lynched anyway). But in doing so, his kill will certainly get passed to a different scum. And so now our night analysis is f'd. We'd have to start all over with blocking to try and figure out who is the new scum killer. Dang, that's brilliant. Anyone see a flaw in this thinking? So now - do we lynch him as likely scum, or do we avoid his trap and lynch someone else and put a blocker on him for the rest of the game so he can't kill again? For the moment, I'll Unvote: Fabien We've got plenty of hours left to sort through this. I'm not entirely opposed to lynching him - getting rid of likely scum is always good. But is it the BEST option?

Vincent, my plan was to check out as many people as possible as quickly as possible. Fabien *could* be a vig as he claimed - if you/Aiden flipped scum, then we'd re-evaluate again. Especially if he took out a scum for us, we'd have to consider if he was telling the truth about his role and be able to solve this thing faster. Plus, I was writing the plan as I thought of it. I knew it wouldn't be perfect; that's why I put it out there for others to help. No one seems to like it, so I'm not pushing for it. We can still catch all the scum. We can still test all 3 of you, one at a time. The group as a whole wants to lynch Fabien first to test his claim. So be it. As for Aiden's claim... maybe it's not true. But if it is, it COULD still be a scum-aligned one. He might have not used it to save Joshua because it was too early in the game. Using it would have told everyone there was such a role out there. And it might be critical to have it to save someone at the end. No, those aren't likely. But I was trying, again, to cover as many possibilities and make our test as useful, accurate, and un-screw-with-able as possible. If we were going to take both of you out, and one could possibly mess with the lynch, then why not night-kill him?

Maybe it is a bad plan. But I put it out to get input, and apparently the few that have responded didn't like it too much. The tracking is in case Fabien and aiden are scum - wouldn't want him to kill someone else and then claim he was blocked and some other scum killer did it. Basically, yes, it's an odd and somewhat risky plan. So I want to do anything we can do ensure it works and learn as much as possible, while preventing the scum from screwing things up as much as we can. And as for "we" - heck, even you have suggest lynching you. There may not have been many votes on you because we've had better suspects, but you're certainly a suspect for most people I'd assume. What are you even talking about? The sentence you quoted was me saying what we as a town could do in my proposed plan. Nothing at all to do with a scum board. I'm ok with that too. We'll probably lynch one today and the other tomorrow, but we can do that too. And yes, I can't see strongarm being multi-use, that'd be way overpowered. The only way I can see Fabien NOT being a killer would be if he's scum and sacrificing himself to save the real killer for another night. Either way, we should test that. Vote: Fabien

The most obvious plan for today is what Vincent suggests. Lynch either him or Fabien, and see where things fall tomorrow. Out of those, I think we almost have to lynch Fabien as admitted killer - can we take the risk of leaving him alive in case he's actually scum? They could BOTH be scum, in which case Vincent isn't terribly worried about losing their killer as the kill ability would be passed along to another scum. So... Here's a thought... a potential plan. It'd test a lot of people at once. Lynch Vincent, since he's still a possible scum killer. Block Aiden, in case he's lying about his role and has something that could interfere. Tell Fabien to kill Aiden, have Emmett track him so that we know for sure if he goes after Aiden(not entirely necessary, but could be useful in case the scum try to screw with things). We get two of the possible scum out at once. If Fabien doesn't go along, we have an obvious lynch tomorrow. If Fabien will go along with it, then we have to consider if he's actually a vig or just playing along hoping to make it to the end and win for the scum team. I'd initially written this with Aiden/Vincent flipped. But it's possible that Aiden as governor could un-lynch himself, and that'd screw things up. So he needs to be a night kill. The risk is obvious. If I'm completely wrong and Aiden/Vincent are both town, then we'd lose 2. But these are all 3 the people we suspect anyway, so why not test them faster? The alternative is to lynch Fabien or Vincent today, block Fabien if we decide to lynch Vincent over him, and then have the same debates tomorrow.

Huh? I'm the one who's been suggesting that scum are sitting back is a possible scenario, and I'm certainly not sitting on my keister, but then you vote for me? These two lines don't fit together. Now, as for the overnight (at least in my timezone) bombshell... first, a vig taking out daniel does not tell us anything for sure about the scum. They COULD have also killed daniel and he's just double-dead. Or they could have tried to kill someone and failed because the killer was blocked. It's also possible that Fabien IS the scum killer trying to get away with it, and that would require a lynch to test out. Uh, now my head hurts. Need more caffeine to sort out this nonsense. For the moment, since we now have more possiblities to consider, I will Unvote: Vincent since my main reason for wanting to lynch him was Daniel's death. Now that we have a chance that Daniel was town-killed, my reasons don't hold up as well. Happy Vincent? I'll do some more re-evaluating now that there's even more information.