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getdamonkey

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Everything posted by getdamonkey

  1. getdamonkey
    Pretty sure neither gets lynched if there's a tie
  2. getdamonkey
    I'm on the fence between the two. I more switched to prevent a flood of votes against Greg. But now I'm more concerned with preventing a tie. Unvote: Emma Lane (vampyre78) Vote: Greg Kennedy (Lego Spy)
  3. getdamonkey
    Since I'll be surprised if I make it through night actions, I'm going to leave my probables list My probable scum list is as follows: Tier 1 - Highest Probability Emma - stated Greg - stated Tier 2 - Worth Looking into Warren - Lots of random votes, heavy splintering behavior. Likelihood increases dramatically if Greg is scum. Willie - bit of a Keyser Soze thing going on (If you haven't seen "The Usual Suspects II: Suspects in Space", go watch it) Adam - Enough people have suspected him that just letting things go would be an issue.
  4. getdamonkey
    You'll have to excuse me, I've spent most of the night repairing a broken exhaust manifold and have only had half a cup of coffee so far Since I've established why it's a bad behavior (essentially works out to a proportional vote against town). Here's the random vote list (correct me if there's others, I am not counting tit-for tats or unstated reasons though). Warren Day 1 #64 Greg Day 1 #199 Melinda Day 1 #201 Greg's vote is declared as random, which as a reminder was then immediately followed by Isaac. That was poorly formatted ... One more for clarity... Warren -- Day 1 #64 Greg -- Day 1 #199 Melinda -- Day 1 #201
  5. getdamonkey
    Unvote: Greg Kennedy (Lego Spy) Vote: Emma Lane (vampyre78) post #108
  6. getdamonkey
    So first off, if there was solid evidence against anyone, we'd be done here. There's not solid evidence, so we're forced to go with our best guess. Second, If we're assuming three (which we should for voting purposes), we won't finish this today. Because of this all suspicions are important and should be voiced with accompanying evidence. BUT, we should concentrate on a small number of people (in this case 2). Keeping votes clustered will give us more valuable data since it forces scum to work harder to defend their own.
  7. getdamonkey
    Really? I think Emma and Greg are the most likely contenders for being scum ATM. we should be careful not to split votes since, assuming that there are three scum, they control enough votes for a three way stalemate. relatively certain either Emma or Greg (and possibly both) is scum at this point. We should probably concentrate our efforts there.
  8. getdamonkey
    you've got about 12H yet
  9. getdamonkey
    If she's was wrong though. Scum actually had incentive to keep her in the game. agreed, better safe than sorry.
  10. getdamonkey
    Have to look at all views since it's as likely to be the carburetor as the muffler. Okay, so here's a look at Emma from my view. Prior to the bandwagon on Adam, Emma doesn't seem to lean either way. Assuming Adam is town, Emma casts a very late vote (#6 of 7). Outside of the context of the bandwagon, this doesn't mean much. In the context of the bandwagon, it's the vote that would potentially seal Adam's lynching. Emma even goes as far as to agreeing that lots of votes are being cast quickly (bandwagon) before adding her vote to the pile. What happens next isn't damning but it's interesting. Emma makes a request for Emily's opinion. This is a costless action for Emma (since she gives no info) but is bad for emily since she's being asked to divulge information at a tense point in the game. It strikes me as weird that there was no change in a vote that seemed to be cast on a whim earlier here. Doing this keeps Adam in a potential position of being lynched. it seems like there is some subtle efforts to push the game in a certain direction here.
  11. getdamonkey
    If by two, you mean 16, then you're spot on. As a side note, "me too" type votes are pretty weak and don't contribute much info. I would encourage you to explain the vote in your own words.
  12. getdamonkey
    I'll expand this to bring in Information from yesterday rather than referencing it. This starts on Day 1 during Adam's bandwagon, There were 3 quick succession votes for Adam. These three votes are #'s 4-6 enough to push Adam to 50% of the room. Emily noticed this. Two of the three players make Emily's scum list. Aaaaannnnnnddd then we lynched Melinda. Two of her 4 votes come at the same cadence as the Adam bandwagon. This was all well and fine until today when we find out that both Isaac and Melinda are town and Emily is also killed via night action. Isaac's posts are pretty benign outside of the bandwagoning. So it would seem like Isaac was being puppetted and would have found out he was being mislead after the votes were tallied since it looked like he'd been lead into a bandwagon and a town lynching by the same person. It's unlikely that scum would do anything overt to out themselves. Isaac was killed because he knew something.
  13. getdamonkey
    That seems low. We should assume at least three. We shouldn't be lax about rooting out the purists.
  14. getdamonkey
    Emma is also pretty high up on my list; but I think the evidence against Greg is more concrete. I think 1 and 2 can be dismissed as efforts at preservation but I would add that she was one of the few remaining votes against Adam yesterday despite coming in on the tail end of the bandwagon. Adam was almost lynched because of these remaining votes.
  15. getdamonkey
    The only way we'll ever find the scum is to share information. Let's assume that there are 3 scum in our midst. With 9 people remaining, that means a vote with no information behind it (random) has a 2/3s chance of being cast for town. The only way to ensure our votes are well cast is to talk about our conclusions and eliminate what doesn't make sense. If we have another day like yesterday, we're in trouble. So look at the evidence and see what you find but then discuss it with the group. I understand why you're fearful of speaking up but it needs to happen for the good of the group.
  16. getdamonkey
    We really shouldn't wait until the very end to declare our votes. It's not a personal judgement on you but the best thing for scum to do is to withhold votes until the very end of the day and then bandwagon. It sounds like you're going to sit back and not contribute. That's a shame. If you're town, you need to help. We all need to pitch in to right the ship.
  17. getdamonkey
    Willie - In order to get a good diagnostic of the situation, we need you to outline the quotes from Greg that you're citing. If they're not there, you need to drop that part of your reasoning. I'll research the issue later if you do not respond. Everyone - please do not be knee-jerk in your reactions. Again, this is about building a consensus not bandwagoning. If you don't agree with what's being said, offer an alternative explanation. Just railing against something being wrong doesn't accomplish anything.
  18. getdamonkey
    I don't want a bandwagon against you. I want a firm consensus. Bandwagons accomplish nothing. That's why I've asked others to put forward alternative explanations. We both have background in evidence based disciplines, let's use them.
  19. getdamonkey
    Wait, there's a game too? Mafia is serious business!
  20. getdamonkey
    Vote: Greg Kennedy (Lego Spy) Explanation in post #42 of this thread. I'm doing this early so that everyone can give it ample thought. I believe that this is the best choice given the current evidence. If you believe I am wrong, please provide your alternative.
  21. getdamonkey
    Since we have more information to act on now, it would behoove everyone to explain their votes. A simple "I agree" or a random pick is a pretty bad idea at this point. Because we can unvote as many times as we like, there's really no cost to voting (other than a loss of credibility if you're constantly switching) until the end of the day when they are tallied. Why are random votes bad? Town still presumably outnumbers scum. A random pick hurts town because it is more likely to fall on town than scum. Why is "I agree" bad? "I agree" contributes a minimum amount of information which is something that town is still at a severe deficit of (since we're not sure of who is town v scum and scum has that information). Talking through your vote with the group slows down potential bandwagons and helps get information out there. We need to explain our votes! Most information is still good information but that proportion is a little bit lower than it was yesterday since scum are now a higher portion of our number. If you have alternative scenarios to what is currently out there state them. The more we talk, the more likely we are to root out scum so let's get to talking.
  22. getdamonkey
    It's the votes not the conversations. Both pairs of votes come at pretty key points. They build momentum against Adam and move Melinda from one vote to a solid lynching candidate. I'll need to confirm but I don't think Isaac voted without Greg. Bandwagons - We've seen pretty clearly that Bandwagons are more a matter of momentum rather than who cast the first vote. Two quick votes can easily give the appearance of votes rushing to a player given our relatively small numbers. PM's - It's completely plausible that Isaac was conversing with Greg under the the assumption that Greg is town. Scum have a HUGE information advantage in that they all know each other. Regardless of how the conversation started. There's a lot of incentive for the Scum player to continue the exchange since he essentially has an unmonitored channel with which to influence the game.
  23. getdamonkey
    Think I found who Isaac was talking to. Watch the timestamps on the votes. First on the votes for Adam. Here, Isaac was used to bring the voting against Adam to full bandwagon status. Next, Isaac is used to help push the votes for Melinda from one to 3. This was sufficient, it only took one more vote (from Adam) to get her lynched. I think this is the most solid evidence we've had thus far. Vote: Greg Kennedy (Lego Spy)
  24. getdamonkey
    I think you're going to be in suspense since answering you is a terrible idea.
  25. getdamonkey
    We're allowed to.
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