jluck

I think we should vote down a mayor or two until... Oh wait, I'm the nominee?! In that case, I think we should stick with the current mayor! I'm out right now with my wife, but I'll nominate a TCC soon. I'll have to check the previous days cuz I want that one person who's been involved in 2 town cards. I mentioned I have a town read on them yesterday. I think I'm thinking of Lindsey but she's disqualified from being nominated as she was yesterday's mayor I believe. With that in mind, I'm open to suggestions!

Actually, I'm smart enough to disagree with you. I don't think a scum tcc would risk exposing themselves to suspicion, especially early on, by creating a 50:50 scenario where either they or the mayor is lying. an investigation of them or the mayor would immediately prove one was scum and also clear a townie. It'd be a net loss play I'd think. That's why I think tomorrow we should focus on the mayor choice so closely, the tcc is pretty much a pawn til 3 scum cards are passed. *sorry, I meant 4 scum cards are passed.

From what I've seen, the TCC, rather town or scum, rather has their hands tied. if they're handed a town and mafia card it'd be extremely bold for them to pass the Mafia card knowing that the mayor would call them on it. I'd suggest possibly using our "no" votes tomorrow to get a mayor that we want. That's the real power.

Truthfully, unlikely, but not unheard of. Bussing is a fairly common scum tactic. But if I were to make a guess, I'm leaning town with you. I'm also town lean on Lindsey. She's been involved in 2 successful town policies and in both cases (according to the claims) she could have passed a scum policy. IMO, we should continue putting Lindsey and Anne in whenever possible.

Ive added the governments name to the earlier analysis and my own thoughts are in bold. Day one Deck holds 11scum 6town Mayor (Enward-chromeknight) draws 2scum 1town-Why are we assuming that Edward told the truth here? if he got 2 town and 1 scum it'd benefit a scum player to lie to through off card numbers in future rounds. Discards a scum TCC (Lindsey-KH) plays a town Lindsey looks town to me, but Edward and Lindsey are not both scum most certainly Day two Deck holds 9scum 5town we think Mayor (Joshua-peanuts (scum?)) draws* 3scum this has a likelyhood of (9c3*5c0)/(14c3)=3/13 or 23% Discards a scum* TCC (Robert-dragonfire) plays a scum Day 3 Deck holds 6scum 5town Mayor (Ralph-actor builder) draws* 2scum 1town you're assuming this is the case, but it's possible Joshua is scum, lied about receiving 3 scum cards, and Ralph did get 3 scum cards. If Joshua (who we're told was investigated as scum) lied, then Ralph could have gotten 3 scum with a probability of nearly (7c3*4c0)/(11c3)= 10%. I think this indicates that it's more probable that Joshua was telling the truth, but it's still quite possible that Joshua lied and Ralph didn't. One thing seems certain, they aren't both town as that probability is nearly 5% that Ralph pulls 3 scum given that Joshua also pulled 3 scum cards. Discards a town TCC (Anne-mediumsnowman (town?)) plays a scum i think we can trust Anne was given 2 scum cards. It's not guaranteed but it feels more likely than not. I don't have numbers on this one. Day 4 Mayor (Lindsey-KH) TCC (pat-Tariq) So there's an expansion using the earlier analysis. I anxiously await today's play. Sorry, cross posted.

The problem with all this is we now seem to have nothing. We don't trust the investigation of Anne, we don't trust the analysis of the cards that remain, and we don't trust the previous councils. So what do we have?

Unfortunately, until Ralph is more forthcoming with literally everything of value from yesterday, I don't feel comfortable with a yes or no vote. We're getting a little deeper in now and I feel the Mafia have to have influenced this game far more than we're taking into account. We keep taking probabilities of cards remaining on trusting what the mayor has told us, but someone has had to have lied by now I'd assume.

I don't disagree with you, but we know what Ralph is gonna claim, so how do you know he's lying?

Of course I vote: yes

Yep, I think we have a pretty clear win map today. With a confirmed townie in power, the odds of a Mafia card passing are around 13%.

No problem! We all appreciate the thought and time you've put into this, it's been fun so far!

Id say it's 99% likely this isn't a scum ploy. If the government was scum and they fake investigated another scum to clear one person, that ties all 3 of them together. Meaning if one goes down, they'd all go down. It just seems far too unlikely. Did the mayor and the TCC both receive the investigation result, or just the mayor? Here's a possible scenario, the mayor is scum. He got 2 Mafia and 1 town card and discarded the town card. He the used his investigation to clear a scum-bud. That seems plausible to me, especially if the mayor was the only one to receive the investigation result.

So Anne should be tomorrow's TCC.

I think I just realized some strategy to this game. We don't know much, but we do know how many cards we started with and we know that the policy that is passed is discarded. So we have a pretty good idea of what cards are likely to be passed handed to the mayor. For example, this time it's highly unlikely that the mayor receives 3 town policies. As the game progresses it'll be more and more difficult for the government to lie about what cards they got. Probability should play a big role in our decisions. I know this is an obvious observation, but I can't think of much more strategy involved here.

I see the logic of a no vote, but right now I'm more interested in the policies people choose as opposed to the TCC they choose. With the number of cards remaining, there's a very high probability that at least 2 Mafia cards will be chosen, so I want to see how this government handles it. So I'll vote "yes".

My question exactly. Will tomorrow have one less town card since we've used one town card or does it go back into the deck?

I'm not sure how to read into things but in my opinion they both look townie to me. Chrome could have picked a scum TCC and Kh could have picked a Mafia card. Neither did. Chrome, can you confirm what cards you were given and what cards you passed on?

I think sums up the entire debate. I'll vote yes because I gain nothing from someone else being TCC instead.

Scott, you'd be a terrible TCC! You can't even take of your own lawn, and we're supposed to trust you with our beloved town?!

Micheal Wright, and I'm always right! Except my hand, I'm left there.

Bob, I'm always happy to try whatever you've got! Bring it on and thanks for taking on such a daunting task! I'm sure I'll have plenty of questions, but for now I'll refrain.

I used to list all my outcomes but it got to be too much so now I just put down my avatar. I think this was my 14th or so game. Me and MT both started the same time I believe. Thanks for a fun game!

Yessir! Had fun guys, hopefully we play again soon! Well done all

I fail to see much a difference. Your entire argument was built on the fact that I couldn't be town as a tracker, but now we've all but confirmed there's a town tracker. I'm the only confirmed tracker too. You have a result from the role cop saying I'm the tracker, I gave you my night result, I'm clearly the tracker! Your argument was taken out at the foundation, you can't ignore that fact! As for Umbris' claim, frankly I'm at a loss where it's coming from. We have no evidence supporting his claim and he's given no verification. Given that I know what I am, he must be scum or an overly aggressive vanilla, that's all that makes sense. For the rest of you, look at the straw house Micheal has built! His whole argument is dismantled, I'm the proven tracker and your all just watching me die!

Wait, WHAT?! Oh this is just too good. You base your entire argument on there being no possible way that there is a tracker and a role cop even though I publicly claimed tracker and supported it with my actions, but Umbris claims tracker and it "makes sense"?! Oh dear me, your tunnel vision has blinded you. You're very fortunate that the day is almost over because the picture will be so much clearer once I flip town. You've all been dooped, either by extremely whitty scum or by your own shadows. But look at what your following! I can't deal with this much longer, the amount your willing to overlook just to accept one guys faulty logic is staggering. At this point I'm almost glad I'll be lynched in a few hours, then I can revisit this thread and watch you all fumble through the day trying to explain what went wrong.